Confirmed with Link: Pens trade Eller to Washington

[Malkinstheman]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1856532150503219636

Hasse got a response from Dubas regarding the trade. He said this was in the works since the spring and the second their price was matched he pulled the trigger. This trade is more in response to Lizotte returning from injury and WBS guys knocking on the door

 

[Freeptop]

You're looking at time when you should be looking at amount of 3rds.
From 2005-2020 we drafted 12 3rd rounders.
Of those 12 the successful ones were Letang, Guentzel, Murray and Rust. That's a pretty admirable hit rate for 3rd rounders.
Sundqvist and Bortuzzo became NHL'er regulars too.

So far we have 7 3rds lined up for the next three years. There's gonna be more to come too. By the time Dubas is through we may match the quantity of 3rds from 2005-2020 in a span of 3-4 years.

The problem is, it doesn't really look so great if you break that up into smaller segments.
Break that down into 5 year blocks, and we get:
2005-2009: 5 third round picks, which yielded Letang and Bortuzzo as notable players
2010-2014: 4 third round picks, all of which became NHL players: Rust, Sundqvist, Murray and Guentzel
2015-2020: 4 third round picks. Zero total NHL games out of them.

So, the actual success is from a long while ago, under different GMs, different Scouting Directors and different scouts.

That's a bit more concerning, and really, it doesn't look all that much better in the other rounds, either (though for once, the Pens seem to have actually done better in the second round than the third in that timeframe).

On the other hand, we've seen a more recent turnover of the scouts again, so maybe we can't really rely on any of that data to tell us a whole lot about the near future anyway

 

[Empoleon8771]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1856532150503219636

Hasse got a response from Dubas regarding the trade. He said this was in the works since the spring and the second their price was matched he pulled the trigger. This trade is more in response to Lizotte returning from injury and WBS guys knocking on the door

Supports that report from Seravalli from the deadline last year that the Penguins were trying to trade Eller and no team had met their price.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

About what I expected to get for Eller tbh. Might've been able to get a 2nd rounder if you'd waited until the TDL but I don't think it really matters. Going for a 2027 3rd is weird, but might be a smart play in the end depending on how Washington looks in a few more years. I dunno.

Now hope Petts stabilizes his dogshit play and you can somehow snag a 1st for him from someone close to the TDL. Fingers crossed.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

You're looking at time when you should be looking at amount of 3rds.
From 2005-2020 we drafted 12 3rd rounders.
Of those 12 the successful ones were Letang, Guentzel, Murray and Rust. That's a pretty admirable hit rate for 3rd rounders.
Sundqvist and Bortuzzo became NHL'er regulars too.

So far we have 7 3rds lined up for the next three years. There's gonna be more to come too. By the time Dubas is through we may match the quantity of 3rds from 2005-2020 in a span of 3-4 years.

That period had an astounding hit rate...so much so that its unreasonable to expect a team to repeat it. That's not normal for any group of 3rd rounders, so if you think we're gonna get anything like a group like that with 1/3 of our next 3rd rounders, prepare to be disappointed.

Look at our 2nds over that period. There's a sobering thought.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

That period had an astounding hit rate...so much so that its unreasonable to expect a team to repeat it. That's not normal for any group of 3rd rounders, so if you think we're gonna get anything like a group like that with 1/3 of our next 3rd rounders, prepare to be disappointed.

Look at our 2nds over that period. There's a sobering thought.

7 in the next 3 years. Hitting 2 would do wonders for us.

 

[Turin]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1856532150503219636

Hasse got a response from Dubas regarding the trade. He said this was in the works since the spring and the second their price was matched he pulled the trigger. This trade is more in response to Lizotte returning from injury and WBS guys knocking on the door

Ummmmmmmmm no I'm pretty sure teams are chomping at the bit to get Lars EHLERS for a 2nd, if not more.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

That period had an astounding hit rate...so much so that its unreasonable to expect a team to repeat it. That's not normal for any group of 3rd rounders, so if you think we're gonna get anything like a group like that with 1/3 of our next 3rd rounders, prepare to be disappointed.

Look at our 2nds over that period. There's a sobering thought.

They're not gonna win a Cup through free agency or trades for roster players alone. They have to try through the draft, no matter what the odds are.
It's the only way. It's not that hard to understand.

7 in the next 3 years. Hitting 2 would do wonders for us.

There's gonna be more than that eventually. Would be surprised if it's fewer than 10.

 

[Malkinstheman]

Ummmmmmmmm no I'm pretty sure teams are chomping at the bit to get Lars EHLERS for a 2nd, if not more.

Nah you don't get it, Dubas hates the Pens is taking less just to spite us

 

[Jaded-Fan]

If he was worth a second someone would have paid it. Apparently the Pens have been fishing since last year with no bites.

Also, the hit rate on getting an actual player between the second and third rounds isn't much.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

If he was worth a second someone would have paid it. Apparently the Pens have been fishing since last year with no bites.

Also, the hit rate on getting an actual player between the second and third rounds isn't much.

Yeah. This is why I don't mind all these 2nds and 3rd tbh. More lotto tickets. /shrug

Sure, there's like a 95% chance they don't play meaningful NHL time, let alone become impact players, but I think for picks from late 1st onward, spray and pray is the correct approach.

 

[BusinessGoose]

This org is garbage

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Yeah. This is why I don't mind all these 2nds and 3rd tbh. More lotto tickets. /shrug

Sure, there's like a 95% chance they don't play meaningful NHL time, let alone become impact players, but I think for picks from late 1st onward, spray and pray is the correct approach.

The difference is a little under one in four second round picks become even scrub players. One in eight third round picks. So around ten percent difference.

Odds not great for NHL draft picks - Guelph Storm

by Paul Osborne, Guelph Tribune National Hockey League general managers like the Toronto Maple Leafs Brian Burke is working the phones and debriefing his scouts in order to secure players that will help his organization for many years to come. The tr...

chl.ca

Of course I would rather the one in four chance. But, no one was offering. In the end it is the difference between a small chance and a slightly smaller chance.

 

[BusinessGoose]

Season being declared over in November is wild. Oh well it was fun while it lasted

Dude, it was over before it began. Getting to November was generous.

Could have also deteriorated in value. 1 assist in the last 10. Could have gotten injured.
It's possible he requested a trade too.

There are good points here. Most especially, with the logic, why the f*** did they not trade Rust dumb ass last year? Eller probably asked to go back to WSH, though... And Rust asks Sullivan what donut he wants with his coffee every day... So we get to hold onto one aging, trash veteran while another leaves.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

This org is garbage

 

[HandshakeLine]

Lmao

https://x.com/i/web/status/1856364149418123286

https://x.com/i/web/status/1856365827747946692

Sheary is such a toad, lol.

 

[BusinessGoose]

Sheary is such a toad, lol.

Anyone over the age of 10 going by "Danny" is a turd ferguson

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Shirey went from "oh this guy might be a decent alternative to the local sports journo dorks" to having the insights of a Penguins facebook copy pasta.

 

[HuskerTornado]

2027, sick, we'll probably have flying cars n' shit when that pick gets made.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Pretty much called it in the Trade forum thread.

Me 1 @Empoleon8771 0

 

[Headshot77]

Remember 5 minutes ago when we were excited to watch McGroarty-Eller-Puljujarvi after they crushed preseason and then they sent down McGroarty immediately, benched Puljujarvi for no reason and then traded Eller? Absolutely stupendous.

Yeah like what the f***

 

[HandshakeLine]

Shirey went from "oh this guy might be a decent alternative to the local sports journo dorks" to having the insights of a Penguins facebook copy pasta.

He's basically a chatGPT version of DK.

Remember 5 minutes ago when we were excited to watch McGroarty-Eller-Puljujarvi after they crushed preseason and then they sent down McGroarty immediately, benched Puljujarvi for no reason and then traded Eller? Absolutely stupendous.

You can't pay enough for this kind of coaching, really.

 

[Headshot77]

Yea, you know Kyle Dubas. Always known for striking early before something goes bad. What's that? Oh, just ignore the 3,000 lb Mike Sullivan in the corner.

Sully was extended before Dubas got here

 

[HandshakeLine]

If only we had a GM or a PoHO.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

If only we had a GM or a PoHO.

More like a piece of poohoo.