Salary Cap: Pens Summer Salary Thread: Dull days of August... Oooo! A trade!

[AuroraBorealis]

The "entire hockey world" was pretty clear where the Pens were at in 2015 too. Good thing they didn't blow it up then, although I'm sure the present advocates would have been front and center talking about how hopeless it was. The Kings surprised a few people as an 8 seed not too long ago too.

Please. Every Pens fan who watched the games at that time knew that was a coaching problem. Almost all the players were getting career lows, and it was a drastic style change that didn't fit the team.
The core was far younger at that time. The team was still hungry to win, not interested in treading water like now.
2015 and 2024 are in no way comparable and you know it.

Crosby is still considered a top 5 center by players and execs. How many teams can you name with a player of that calibre, who finished just outside the playoffs the year before, who blew everything up?

Deciding the course of a team based on 1 Center in his late 30's is the most ridiculous approach ever. Cups are won through the cumulative strength of the roster, and Centers are not the most impactful position on the ice. They are 3rd most.
The team just got 88 points in a weak Eastern bubble race, with him playing every game... scoring 42 goals and 94 points. Stop overestimating his control over results. He plays 20 minutes, and he often doesn't have the puck.
If anything expect the bar in the East to go way up this year. A lot of teams around the Pens in the standings improved over the summer.
Besides, is Sid even gonna be top 5 in 2024-25, at 37 without Guentzel? Unlikely.

The obvious fact you're ignoring is that we won't likely have another top 5 player at their position for the next decade plus no matter how we proceed.

Yes, which is why the Pens need to load up on prospects to the point where the combined strength of the roster outweighs that deficiency. That's how the Blues won in 2019.
The last thing they should be doing right now is passing on potential 1sts and 2nds.

You're acting as though hockey is a zero sum game - contender or bust. It's not.

If you're not a contender then you should be using that year to build towards becoming one, since the Cup is the ultimate goal. It is the job of the General Manager to do that.
A 3rd successive season of a half-ass retirement tour is nothing more than a discarded year.

Look, I'm not gonna bash you for being romantic about the core and wanting to see more of them before they quit. That's totally understandable and expected.
Just don't trry to deceive yourself and others about how intelligent this direction is. It's exhausting to read, when the writing's been on the wall for so long.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

And it's obvious that this tanking isn't going to happen anytime soon yet the topic dominates this thread because a single poster can't accept it.

Why would I support a direction without any hope or ambition? If I'm the bad guy for wanting the team to get serious again, I'll happily accept that label.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Public service announcement/reminder: tanking doesn't guarantee anything outside of your team sucking ass in the near term. No amount of top picks guarantee any sort of success and the added draft value of tanking is minimized with the draft lottery.

The only thing nuking this roster right now would accomplish is make them extremely bad right now. It does nothing to put them on a path to win again nor does it guarantee any sort of future success.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Public service announcement/reminder: tanking doesn't guarantee anything outside of your team sucking ass in the near term. No amount of top picks guarantee any sort of success and the added draft value of tanking is minimized with the draft lottery.

The only thing nuking this roster right now would accomplish is make them extremely bad right now. It does nothing to put them on a path to win again nor does it guarantee any sort of future success.

Ah okay. So then just never try for a Cup again then, since it's not guaranteed to work.
Better to just hang out in the bubble for decades, hoping for a random perfect storm in the playoffs once every 20 years.

Very inspired, Empoleon8771

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

This is already a bad team buoyed slightly by Sid. If age catches up to him this season or he suffers a lasting injury, this team's gonna be complete dogshit imo.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Ah okay. So then just never try for a Cup again then, since it's not guaranteed to work.
Better to just hang out in the bubble for decades, hoping for a random perfect storm in the playoffs once every 20 years.

Very inspired, Empoleon8771

I like how narrow sighted you are that you think tanking and intentionally being shit is the only way to try to win a cup.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I also think we need to revise the definition of "tanking", because "finishing with 2 top-5 picks 15 years ago" is not "tanking". I'd argue the definition of tanking is "having multiple years in a short window of terrible seasons resulting in top-5 picks", and the reality is that most teams who have won in recent memory simply do not fall under that criteria. Let's look back at the past cup winners since the Penguins won in 2017:

-Florida: top-5 picks in 2002, 2003, 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2014
-Vegas: no top-5 picks
-Colorado: top-5 picks in 2009, 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2019 (via trade)
-Tampa: top-5 picks in 2008, 2009 and 2013
-Blues: top-5 picks in 2006 and 2008
-Capitals: top-5 picks in 2004, 2006 and 2007

Of these teams, the only teams that I would argue actually did some sort of "tank" and won later was Florida and Washington. Washington's tank obviously got them Backstrom and Ovi while Florida's tank got them Barkov, Ekblad and Huberdeau (who was later turned into Tkachuk). But beyond that, the other teams simply don't follow the same pattern. Sure, they may have gotten high picks, but it was random one-off years. I think the Avs are a good example of this, their seasons yoyoed in terms of point finishes in their 2008-2018 window:

-2008-2009: 69 points
-2009-2010: 95 points
-2010-2011: 68 points
-2011-2012: 88 points
-2012-2013: 39 points in 48 games
-2013-2014: 112 points
-2014-2015: 90 points
-2015-2016: 82 points
-2016-2017: 48 point
-2017-2018: 95 points

There is no "tanking" window in this entire 10 year period. It's 4 bad years, with one horrendously bad year, that are just sprinkled in a 10 year span of them being a borderline playoff team. They won in major part because of the picks they made in this window with Duchene, Landeskog, MacKinnon and Makar, but they didn't "tank" for those guys. They just got really, really lucky by just happening to be terrible in the years to get those guys. The Avs are a great example of a bubble team who just happened to suck in the right years to turn into a future cup winner.

 

[Gurglesons]

I also think we need to revise the definition of "tanking", because "finishing with 2 top-5 picks 15 years ago" is not "tanking". I'd argue the definition of tanking is "having multiple years in a short window of terrible seasons resulting in top-5 picks", and the reality is that most teams who have won in recent memory simply do not fall under that criteria. Let's look back at the past cup winners since the Penguins won in 2017:

-Florida: top-5 picks in 2002, 2003, 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2014
-Vegas: no top-5 picks
-Colorado: top-5 picks in 2009, 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2019 (via trade)
-Tampa: top-5 picks in 2008, 2009 and 2013
-Blues: top-5 picks in 2006 and 2008
-Capitals: top-5 picks in 2004, 2006 and 2007

Of these teams, the only teams that I would argue actually did some sort of "tank" and won later was Florida and Washington. Washington's tank obviously got them Backstrom and Ovi while Florida's tank got them Barkov, Ekblad and Huberdeau (who was later turned into Tkachuk). But beyond that, the other teams simply don't follow the same pattern. Sure, they may have gotten high picks, but it was random one-off years. I think the Avs are a good example of this, their seasons yoyoed in terms of point finishes in their 2008-2018 window:

-2008-2009: 69 points
-2009-2010: 95 points
-2010-2011: 68 points
-2011-2012: 88 points
-2012-2013: 39 points in 48 games
-2013-2014: 112 points
-2014-2015: 90 points
-2015-2016: 82 points
-2016-2017: 48 point
-2017-2018: 95 points

There is no "tanking" window in this entire 10 year period. It's 4 bad years, with one horrendously bad year, that are just sprinkled in a 10 year span of them being a borderline playoff team. They won in major part because of the picks they made in this window with Duchene, Landeskog, MacKinnon and Makar, but they didn't "tank" for those guys. They just got really, really lucky by just happening to be terrible in the years to get those guys. The Avs are a great example of a bubble team who just happened to suck in the right years to turn into a future cup winner.

Washington also didn’t try to tank. They acquired Jagr then sucked.

Ah okay. So then just never try for a Cup again then, since it's not guaranteed to work.
Better to just hang out in the bubble for decades, hoping for a random perfect storm in the playoffs once every 20 years.

Very inspired, Empoleon8771

If we have seen anything over the last 10 years it is that tanking doesn’t work.

The teams that have won championships since our two cups have all largely stuck to trying to be a competitive team most years.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Washington also didn’t try to tank. They acquired Jagr then sucked.

I think that's a valid point, but I also recall they had a pretty aggressive tear-down halfway through the 2003-2004 season and then continued to suck after the lockout.

But yeah, the reality is that teams who have tanked (meaning being consistently bad for an extended stretch of time) have generally not gone on to be cup winners recently. The Penguins and Hawks are an exception to that, not the standard for that.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Please. Every Pens fan who watched the games at that time knew that was a coaching problem. Almost all the players were getting career lows, and it was a drastic style change that didn't fit the team.
The core was far younger at that time. The team was still hungry to win, not interested in treading water like now.
2015 and 2024 are in no way comparable and you know it.

As opposed to now, right?

Deciding the course of a team based on 1 Center in his late 30's is the most ridiculous approach ever. Cups are won through the cumulative strength of the roster, and Centers are not the most impactful position on the ice. They are 3rd most.

Didn't answer the question, predictably. Because we know the answer. Teams never burn it down when they have a player at Crosby's level and just missed the playoffs.

The team just got 88 points in a weak Eastern bubble race, with him playing every game... scoring 42 goals and 94 points. Stop overestimating his control over results. He plays 20 minutes, and he often doesn't have the puck.

If anything expect the bar in the East to go way up this year. A lot of teams around the Pens in the standings improved over the summer.

Besides, is Sid even gonna be top 5 in 2024-25, at 37 without Guentzel? Unlikely.

Crosby's had more control over results than any player over the last 20 years, and looked every bit as good once Guentzel left. Bet against him.

Yes, which is why the Pens need to load up on prospects to the point where the combined strength of the roster outweighs that deficiency. That's how the Blues won in 2019.

The last thing they should be doing right now is passing on potential 1sts and 2nds.

The Blues sure as hell didn't burn anything down, so that narrative doesn't track. In fact, they were a middle of the pack team that just missed the playoffs the year before.

Crucial trades for vets the previous offseason did a lot more to tip the scales than young players on ELCs.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Are we sure the Malkin family aren't Tom Brady fans? That football looks a little deflated.

Malkin knows how dejected he is playing behind a dipshit coach and that the fans see it, so he’s just throwing out support to the players and fans for the Steelers that are in the same boat.

Geno is amazing like that.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

That's my overall point. It's not just as simple as "sell everything off and tank and you end up with Cups". We've been spoiled with our situation and some folks seem to think that's what will happen again as soon as we move on from Sid and Geno and start the rebuild.

Yes and no. Caps knew the core they had didn't result in anything and then went all in on moving everyone out in 2003-04 knowing the lockout was looking and that their aging core wasn't going to help after the lockout ended, whenever that was at the time.

Gonchar went to Boston.
Lang to Detroit
Jagr to Rangers
Bondra to Ottawa
Grier to Buffalo

They also fired Cassidy and did the tank special move - hired a coach with very little decent experience at all in Glen Hanlon and he tanked for 3 1/4 seasons which gave the Caps decent first round options.

2004 - Ovechkin
2005 - Pokulok (lockout year pick)
2006 - Backstrom
2007- Alzner

But the Caps basically dumped them and hired a shitty coach and were absolute ass in the rest of 2003-04, then were crap in the first two years of the post lockout seasons. Basically got them decent core players and then they slowly drafted well and got better when they got Boudreau and in 2007-08 making the playoffs.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Crosby's had more control over results than any player over the last 20 years

Okay, so we're ignoring the last 6 years then, where they didn't win a series and missed the playoffs altogether in the last 2.
Crosby was here the whole time, playing very well. It didn't save them.

It's not about doubting or believing in him. It's about his position and how overstated its impact is.
If it was truly like you say, McDavid would not be Cupless at 28 years old (come January).

You wanna drag an unworthy team into the playoffs? You wanna beat a superior team in a series? Hot goalie over Center, every time.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I like how narrow sighted you are that you think tanking and intentionally being shit is the only way to try to win a cup.

For this team, in this situation? Yes, that's the only effective way.
Any other route will lead to worse and more delayed levels of success.
There's no foundation in place. So they must build it through the draft.

 

[BusinessGoose]

Still the best first minute ever

And uh.... I dunno.. Sounds exactly like where they are today... 8 years later.. Except we refuse to change the coach

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Still the best first minute ever

And uh.... I dunno.. Sounds exactly like where they are today... 8 years later.. Except we refuse to change the coach

I can't help but laugh at that too, because what MJ did got him fired, Sullivan has done it twice and much worse and he's sitting as one of the top 5 highest paid coaches in the NHL for something he did 7-8yrs ago.

Imagine being fired for putting up a .589 win percentage and then seeing the bloke that took over for you almost a decade later put up a .555% and a .537% and somehow get a massive extension instead

 

[Honour Over Glory]

For this team, in this situation? Yes, that's the only effective way.
Any other route will lead to worse and more delayed levels of success.
There's no foundation in place. So they must build it through the draft.

I get what @Empoleon8771 is saying and what you're saying, I mean to address Empo, if Sullivan isn't fired until the final year of his contract, then yeah the only option at that point is to severely tank to make up for what Sullivan ruined and that's probably the only way to fix how badly he's f***ed this team up and there's no way anyone can pretend that isn't the case with what he's done and how his usage of this roster for years is why this team is where it is.

IF the Penguins somehow grow a sack and fire Sullivan this next season when its the same shit yet again and this time Dubas wakes up from his post Recess Kindergarten Nap fires his ass - To address AB - I don't think Dubas needs to tank at all because then you can see what a new coach can do and also if it's not working out with the interim coach before the TDL, you start selling and get as many picks as you can and you definitely go into hard sell mode - Karlsson, Pettersson, Rust, Rakell, Jarry, Ned, literally anyone that is worthwhile to dump (No point in moving Malkin since he's almost done, Letang is unmovable, Crosby you never move unless he ok's it). You can even dangle Pickering to pick up a better prospect if need be, everything is on the table in terms of who's in play except for Sid, Geno, Letang for obvious reasons. Penguins then can use picks to move up in the draft if they see a can't miss in the top 10 or top 5 as some teams will see getting an extra 1st and moving down with another 1st worth it, it's always a go to move for GM's.

I think then, you have a couple of years with SId & Letang while Malkin retires to have some of these young talents marinate while having a ton of cap to reshape the team to maybe see if they can surprise and make the playoffs with a new coach and a massively revamped roster - It's a massive task, sure but so much can happen the moment they cut their ties with Sullivan and his influence.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Washington also didn’t try to tank. They acquired Jagr then sucked.



If we have seen anything over the last 10 years it is that tanking doesn’t work.

The teams that have won championships since our two cups have all largely stuck to trying to be a competitive team most years.

Washington unequivocally tanked. They were trying to compete before but they did everything they could to get the #1 pick in 04. Like I know you try to play devil's advocate but come on

 

[Honour Over Glory]

The Blues sure as hell didn't burn anything down, so that narrative doesn't track. In fact, they were a middle of the pack team that just missed the playoffs the year before.

Crucial trades for vets the previous offseason did a lot more to tip the scales than young players on ELCs.

Blues never needed to burn anything down, they had a good mix of youth and old and if anything Berube was likely not doing them any favours in his system and how much they were underperforming for what they had on their roster, it was very apparent when Berube was fired where most of that team was struggling and how improved they were without having to make sweeping changes to the roster.

I think the hype for Berube as a coach is kind of funny because of that. They were 1st round exits and then went as far as the 2nd round before the following season they were playing like absolute crap because Berube's system really was just caving them in, Bannister taking basically that same roster and having them just barely miss is a great example of why Berube needed to go asap. I mean quite literally - The Blues didn't trade for anyone last season when Bannister took over, he took over the same roster and put up 30-19-0-5 vs Berube's 13-14-0-1.

Under Berube last season: 13-14-0-1, 79GF, 93GA (-14 differential), 2.82GF/G, 3.32GA/G, 31st ranked PP, 20th ranked PK
Under Bannister last season: 30-19-0-5, 155GF, 155GA (0 differential), 2.87GF/G, 2.87GA/G, 13th ranked PP, 13th ranked PK

They definitely struggled to score but that could also be because their depth scoring was still crap while their better players started to produce more which had them start scoring at a better rate but just barely, but defensively they were better and so was their goaltending benefitting from that.

Thomas, Kyrou, Neighbours, Krug, Saad, Faulk - All improved under Bannister, the slower players didn't really do much better and some of the older players definitely didn't fare well under Bannister as more youth were played instead (must be nice). Hayes, Sunqvist, etc. If you look at who Armstrong brought in it also supports that - Texier, Holloway, and Joseph are all better skaters. Faksa they picked up to replace Hayes in the bottom 6. They added more young players (aged 27, 22, 23, and 24) while adding 2 older veterans like Faksa 30 and Suter 39. Even with adding Suter and his almost 40yr old ass, they're still younger than the Penguins by a decent amount.

So really, sure you might not need to blow it up, but the Blues acted quickly and fired Berube before it was back to back years of missing the playoffs and more damage was done, they hired Bannister who who like Berube before him when he took over a fired coach, was able to turn around the same roster and do a better job. Penguins have let Sullivan stay so long that the problem might not be fixed with just a coaching change, it'll maybe take more because for almost a decade this team has drafted, signed, and traded for "his type of players" and there in a pretty shit spot because of most of that. So the first step would be firing Sullivan to see if a new coach can deprogram them, if that doesn't work then yeah - very big changes.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

I mean @Dipsy Doodle - You don't think it's curious how so many teams will quickly fire and hire a new coach before the rot takes hold and yet the Penguins keep ignoring it and blindly doubling down on Sullivan's greatness and in turn, blaming themselves as not giving him better options? That's such a bizarre narrative spun by the team to never put Sullivan in a bad light.

I can't recall any other team ever doing that as much as the Penguins have, it's one of the more bizarre things about this team the last 5 or years. Multiple GM's have gone out of their way to praise Sullivan to the media, I don't think they ever went out of their way to do that as many times as they have for any other coach, especially when things have gone as poorly as it has with Sullivan with playoff success after the cups and missing the playoffs officially back 2 back, but really 3 times in the last 8yrs.

Kings, Oilers, Wild, Isles, Sens (they were a .500 team under Martin, still a big improvement) and Blues all fired their coaches and saw better results with virtually (or close enough for most of them) the same rosters as the previous coach wasn't able to do more with last season. Travis Green was the only one that had the least amount of games so I left him off as 21 games is not fair to really assess. But the moment most of these teams were spiralling out of a playoff spot they fired their coach for a much needed change. So the fact that the Penguins are hanging on to Sullivan is weird because all the blame like usual gets shifted to the GM as a scapegoat for Sullivan and it's f***ing ridiculous.

Kings, Oilers, Wild, Isles, and Blues were all playoff teams for a few years before they were about to miss the playoffs and fired their coach, not making the playoffs or the potential to not make it was enough for them to fire their coach, apparently those high standards are not for the Penguins. Sure the Wild missed and so did the Blues, but the coaching changes themselves showed such a big improvement.

Imagine scoring less goals than the Arizona Coyotes.

 

[eXile3]

Tanking is engineering your team to lose for the purpose of getting high picks. Nothing more.

I think the term rebuilding is the one that needs defined. Seems to mean something different to everyone.

 

[Andy99]

I get what @Empoleon8771 is saying and what you're saying, I mean to address Empo, if Sullivan isn't fired until the final year of his contract, then yeah the only option at that point is to severely tank to make up for what Sullivan ruined and that's probably the only way to fix how badly he's f***ed this team up and there's no way anyone can pretend that isn't the case with what he's done and how his usage of this roster for years is why this team is where it is.

IF the Penguins somehow grow a sack and fire Sullivan this next season when its the same shit yet again and this time Dubas wakes up from his post Recess Kindergarten Nap fires his ass - To address AB - I don't think Dubas needs to tank at all because then you can see what a new coach can do and also if it's not working out with the interim coach before the TDL, you start selling and get as many picks as you can and you definitely go into hard sell mode - Karlsson, Pettersson, Rust, Rakell, Jarry, Ned, literally anyone that is worthwhile to dump (No point in moving Malkin since he's almost done, Letang is unmovable, Crosby you never move unless he ok's it). You can even dangle Pickering to pick up a better prospect if need be, everything is on the table in terms of who's in play except for Sid, Geno, Letang for obvious reasons. Penguins then can use picks to move up in the draft if they see a can't miss in the top 10 or top 5 as some teams will see getting an extra 1st and moving down with another 1st worth it, it's always a go to move for GM's.

I think then, you have a couple of years with SId & Letang while Malkin retires to have some of these young talents marinate while having a ton of cap to reshape the team to maybe see if they can surprise and make the playoffs with a new coach and a massively revamped roster - It's a massive task, sure but so much can happen the moment they cut their ties with Sullivan and his influence.

Ha hahaha….

Super 16: Cooper, Maurice top coach power rankings | NHL.com

2-time Stanley Cup winner with Lightning, leader of reigning champion Panthers among best in NHL

www.nhl.com

 

[Ugene Magic]

I believe FSG expressed not tanking and building through many outlets, trade, waivers and UFA. Their drafting could be very underwhelming being drafting nothing but pawns, knights and bishops, and never landing a corner stone anchoring piece where they are just the land of good but not ever great enough to contend seriously again for decades. Look at Detroit, they are already over a decade of being what this team is going to be doing and they are no closer to being a threat to winning a cup anytime soon. They have signed a couple UFA's in Kane and Tarasenko, and they look like this...

Debrincat, Larkin, Raymond
Tarasenko, Compher, Kane
Rasmussen, Copp, Berggren
Motte, Veleno, Fischer

Chiarot, Seider
Edvinsson, Petry
Maatta, Gustafsson

Talbot, Husso, Lyon

It's an okay roster, but not to be confused with a serious contender, and this is basically what I foresee this team doing moving forward. A bunch okay stars but no center iconic super star to build a team around.

Since losing in the 2009 finals they have...

- lost in the 2nd round 3 times
- lost in the 1st round 4 times
- missed the playoffs the last 8 seasons

Drafting...

2010 - 1st 21 OA - Sheahan / 2nd 51 OA Jarnkrok / 5th 141 OA Mrazek
2011 - 2nd 35 OA - Jurco / 2nd 48 OA Ouellet
2012 - 2nd 49 OA Martin Frk / 4th 110 OA Athanasiou
2013 - 1st 20 OA Mantha / 2nd 58 OA Betuzzi / 3rd 79 OA Janmark
2014 - 1st 15 OA Larkin
2015 - 1st 19 OA Svechnikov
2916 - 2nd 53 OA Hronek
2017 - 1st 9 OA Rasmussen
2018 - 1st 6 OA Zadina / 1st 30 OA Veleno / 2nd 33 OA Berggren
2019 - 1st 6 OA Seider
2020 - 1st 4 OA Raymond
2021 - 1st 6 OA Edvinsson
From here who's to say whom sticks
2022 - 1st 8 OA Kasper / They had 2 - 2nd picks
2023 - 1st 9 OA Danielson / 1st 17 OA Sandin-Pellika / They had 3 - 2nd picks
2024 - 1st - 15 OA Brandsegg-Nygard

In all that time losing in the 1st round and not making the playoffs the last 8 seasons they have not landed a generational team altering talent in 14 years.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Okay, so we're ignoring the last 6 years then, where they didn't win a series and missed the playoffs altogether in the last 2.
Crosby was here the whole time, playing very well. It didn't save them.

It's not about doubting or believing in him. It's about his position and how overstated its impact is.
If it was truly like you say, McDavid would not be Cupless at 28 years old (come January).

You wanna drag an unworthy team into the playoffs? You wanna beat a superior team in a series? Hot goalie over Center, every time.

You realize there's absolutely no way to plan to have a hot goalie. The season before the Panthers won the Cup, a 34 year old Bobrovsky had worse regular season numbers than Jarry.

No single great player at any position can win a Cup. But you build around them when you have them.

 

[Gurglesons]

I wish we'd offer sheet Robertson at 2 mil.

Robertson - Crosby - Rust
Bunting - Malkin - Rakell
McGroaty - Hayes - Glass
DOC - Lizotte - Acciari

Dubas would get huge props from me if he turned over the Hextall roster into that. Lots of high potential youth even if they do have huge gaps in their game.