Speculation: Pens' Powerplay Problems

[cygnus47]

TL;DR. Injuries and bad play explain the trends in PP% and PP opportunities respectively.


So I was bored and messing around with pivot tables and scraping tables off NHL.com and decided to look into our PP woes. I had been harbouring a feeling that we have been getting screwed over pretty hard recently with calls so I made up a chart of PP opportunities vs the running PP%.

Powerplays are columns, the dots are the PP%. We're in black and opponents are in grey. I think we all agreed that our PP was a statistical anomaly at the start of the year and we were pretty lucky to be where we were. We were getting a lot of powerplays but so were our opponents (thanks Fatty).

Our powerplay opportunities then correspond to how well we are playing. We've actually only scored 3 PPG's in losses (including OT and SO) all season. Only one of those has been scored after the first week of the season.

November 11 was the game we got flogged by the Rangers 5 - 0 to break a 7 game winning streak (hence the inflated powerplay). We played a few really average games in a row against the Leafs a couple times, the Islanders a couple times and the Hurricanes a couple times. That explains both the high opponent powerplays and the lack of the same for us for that period. As our play began to rebound, the opportunities started to increase again.

We've averaged between 0.5 and 1 PP per game LESS than our opponent ALL year and it hasn't changed much. The average penalty ratio hasn't changed, we're still getting the same ratio of penalty calls between us and our opponents. The obvious 1 per game drop in total penalties could just as easily be attributed to guys getting their feet under them and not missing their marks as to the refs giving us less penalties.


The powerplay stabilised at ~33% around the 18th of November which was probably about right for all the great work Horny was doing plus all the little deflection plays that were working well.

The red dots are the games Letang missed due to injury. The green are when Kunitz was injured. Sid was out a couple games in that time too. You can see that since then our powerplay has continued to fail. Not because they were all key, necessarily, but because of a lack of comfort. Without Beau as well, with issues with Maatta and constant personnel changes the 2nd PP didn't work either. So as for our ability to convert, I can confidently say most of it was injuries.


So I'd like to eat the first crow and say the refs don't have it out for us in particular, even if they don't call games the way the CBA says they should.

Click to read more...

 

[ProgOg]

Great work and insight. I looked at the underlying numbers of the PP during those timespans, too (pre-injury, during, and post from left to right):

(green is their best number yet, orange their worst.)

Post injury is only based on 6 games so far, and is still without Hornqvist, who is probably the most important part for the success of the PP.

Some explanation: the shot attempts are the best way to gauge how succesfull a PP is. The Penguins were 3rd in the league last year, and are currently 19th.

They had a ridiculous high shooting percentage to start the season and got that 40% PP, that is also ridiculous low at the moment. They seem to be able to hold the zone better now thana few weeks ago based on the shots against. They actually shot more while most players were out

When the Penguins were at the 40% mark, some people noted how they didn't produce as many shots, as say the Capitals did (Capitals have never fallen below 110 CF/60 min during this season), and how their success was mostly smoke and mirrors.

Here is how the Penguins PP in 14-15 overall compare to the Penguins PP in 13-14:

Next to the numbers is how the Penguins rank in the league in that category in that respective season.

 

[ObsessedCreative*]

Here are the Penguins 3 biggest problems why the power play sucks...

1. Letang
2. Kunitz
3. Martin

 

[ProgOg]

Here the guys who are shooting way less:

Malkin
(13-14: 33 shot attempts/60 min and in 14-15: 26.5)
Letang
(13-14: 26, 14-15: 16)

Current top shooters:

Bennett
Ehrhoff
Malkin
Hornqvist
Maatta
Dupuis

Kunitz and Crosby are shooting around the same amount as they did in 13-14, which isn't a lot.

 

[ProgOg]

And some other notes, that kinda reflect the PP setup:

Malkin is on average shooting closer to the net in 14-15. (31.3 feet vs. 36.2 feet)
Malkin already has more PP goals in 14-15 than he has in 13-14. (8 vs. 7)

Crosby is also shooting closer to the net this season (22.4 feet vs 27.6 feet)
His 4 goals so far all came from very close by (18.8 feet), but last season was pretty close, too (20.1 feet).


Powerplay in 13-14:

Powerplay so far in 14-15:

(red dots are the goals)

 

[ColePens]

I don't blame injuries one bit. Some of our worst teams have had great powerplays. It's allllll movement. If Sid and Geno think they can do cross ice passes to one another, it ain't going to happen. Movement needs to happen to keep the defense reacting instead of just standing waiting for hte puck to go to Sid or Geno.

 

[Ugene Magic]

I don't blame injuries one bit. Some of our worst teams have had great powerplays. It's allllll movement. If Sid and Geno think they can do cross ice passes to one another, it ain't going to happen. Movement needs to happen to keep the defense reacting instead of just standing waiting for hte puck to go to Sid or Geno.

Not just plain old movement either, Cole. To pull them out of position they need to move the puck fast going with the movement of the players. Having guys move in and out of the slot breaks down coverage and one defender may get attached to a given player near the goal line chasing to the corner a little too much, and there's your opening.

 

[iFishyHD]

Put Ehrhoff or even Perron on over Kunitz and run,

Horny-Crosby-Malkin
Letang-Hoff

put Perron there until we have Horny back.

 

[wolffy66]

Once Craig Adams gets done showing them how it's done on the power play they should bounce right back.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Put Ehrhoff or even Perron on over Kunitz and run,

Horny-Crosby-Malkin
Letang-Hoff

put Perron there until we have Horny back.

Perron was on it.

With Hornqvist out, Kunitz is the only other net-front presence they have. You need that and is why they don't have two D-man on the blueline.


--------------[net]----Crosby
--------------Kunitz



Perron--------------------------Malkin



---------------Letang

A pivoting/rolling umbrella.

 

[WayneSid9987]

Letang is really the key for me. If he keeps things simple, the PP really works. When he holds onto the puck too long and you start seeing him shoot/pass the puck off sticks and shin pads, you know the PP is in for a slow night. Same can be applied for Sid or Geno i suppose. Sid's the bigger culprit of throwing pucks away but Geno has his off nights here and there.

Also, Geno playing at the top left really worked wonders to start out the season. Perhaps Perron can become that threat on the left now, Geno can take the right and Sid can work downlow and netfront.

Erhoff playing the top of the diamond all year(on PP1) and we have a more potent PP. No doubt in my mind about that. As Letang goes, so does PP1.

 

[TheHoff]

Do you guys have a clue why Johnston simply won't give the Hoff a look at the first PP unit? Letang got most of his points at the beginning of the season where the PP was still clicking so production shouldn't be the argument against Ehrhoff because he simply didn't get the same chance. And I hope Letang isn't on it because he's right handed...

If the latter is indeed the only case I'd be totally shocked. Rolston tried this when he coached the Sabres and this concept was a total disaster (yeah so was the team, but still...)

Or is there already bad blood between the Hoffer and the organization?

 

[wej20]

I think the fact that Letang is righthanded is a factor plus the organisation has a lot invested in him.

 

[Penguinzilla*]

It's too casual, there's no desperation. Everyone just stands around.

 

[TheHoff]

I think the fact that Letang is righthanded is a factor plus the organisation has a lot invested in him.

I can understand the argument with the right handed shot but only to a degree. But what bothers me is that Letang gets endless praise for even the simplest things of the game all season long so far (especially by Steigerwald, man... I hate this guy). He has been solid, sure, but he also plays too risky for my taste, leaving the own zone unprotected. Letang was key for all (or most?) SH goals against this team so far because he wasn't ready to get back. He really makes bad decisions which are very dangerous on a regular basis.

Why has the org invested a lot in him so far? What do you mean by this? Because he was injured a long time?

 

[wej20]

I more meant in terms of salary. Letang does play a risky game but he has the skating to cover it up most of the time. When (if) everyone is healthy the Pens have the pieces to put together 2 good PP units and Tocchet is being much fairer with the PP time than Bylsma was.

 

[Ugene Magic]

I can understand the argument with the right handed shot but only to a degree. But what bothers me is that Letang gets endless praise for even the simplest things of the game all season long so far (especially by Steigerwald, man... I hate this guy). He has been solid, sure, but he also plays too risky for my taste, leaving the own zone unprotected. Letang was key for all (or most?) SH goals against this team so far because he wasn't ready to get back. He really makes bad decisions which are very dangerous on a regular basis.

Why has the org invested a lot in him so far? What do you mean by this? Because he was injured a long time?

If you look how the umbrella is set up in my earlier post, to go along with Letang's own misgivings at times, a bad turnover from one of the others leaves him the only guy back.

Look at as taking a high risk for high reward set up. You'd think with the skill they have on the PP it would be minimized.

I more meant in terms of salary. Letang does play a risky game but he has the skating to cover it up most of the time. When (if) everyone is healthy the Pens have the pieces to put together 2 good PP units and Tocchet is being much fairer with the PP time than Bylsma was.

The two PP's is so what I want this team to do. Such a huge advantage.

 

[Will Hunting]

Get ****ing Kunitz out of there once Hornqvist is healthy. Maybe even now and put Beau there, Perron can be a net-front presence. Try some variability, it´s very stereotypical now.

Tocchet was very vocal about our PP issues when he wasn´t even here. Now he´s here and it´s even worse.

 

[wej20]

If you look how the umbrella is set up in my earlier post, to go along with Letang's own misgivings at times, a bad turnover from one of the others leaves him the only guy back.

Look at as taking a high risk for high reward set up. You'd think with the skill they have on the PP it would be minimized.



The two PP's is so what I want this team to do. Such a huge advantage.

I'd still run Crosby and Geno on the same unit but we have the personnel to have a good 2nd unit now.

 

[Lionel Hutz]

Agree on getting Kunitz off 1pp when Horny comes back, but until then he needs to be there for better or worse.

I knew the pp% was unsustainable earlier in the year, but it's shocking that it's gotten this impotent. Biggest problem I see is a failure to move the puck quickly and efficiently.

 

[Lionel Hutz]

Perron was on it.

With Hornqvist out, Kunitz is the only other net-front presence they have. You need that and is why they don't have two D-man on the blueline.


--------------[net]----Crosby
--------------Kunitz



Perron--------------------------Malkin



---------------Letan

A pivoting/rolling umbrella.

I like it except its so easy to clear the puck off the boards when you give up the points. Found last game they were much better at keeping the puck in when cleared along the boards. Not sure what accounted for that.

 

[Rocket of Russia]

I don't blame injuries one bit. Some of our worst teams have had great powerplays. It's allllll movement. If Sid and Geno think they can do cross ice passes to one another, it ain't going to happen. Movement needs to happen to keep the defense reacting instead of just standing waiting for hte puck to go to Sid or Geno.

Yeup. Look at the Rangers PP against LA last night. St. Louis and Boyle I suppose are powerplay specialists, but they're not what they used to be in terms of speed and shooting, but between them and Nash, Stepan, and Brassard, they're ALWAYS moving, and it was working. Sid and Kunitz in particular are incredibly stagnant on the PP right now, and it's not effective at all.

 

[ColePens]

Yeup. Look at the Rangers PP against LA last night. St. Louis and Boyle I suppose are powerplay specialists, but they're not what they used to be in terms of speed and shooting, but between them and Nash, Stepan, and Brassard, they're ALWAYS moving, and it was working. Sid and Kunitz in particular are incredibly stagnant on the PP right now, and it's not effective at all.

Yeah good lord the Rangers moved everywhere. The way they are playing right now is the best I've seen any team this year. I watched both of their west coast games and man those guys fly around the ice.

Rangers have great speed and their forecheck is great. They don't wave sticks at people. The first guy makes the hit to cause the disruption of flow and the rest of the guys work to turn the puck over. The Pens do too much stick waving and trying to do individual turnovers as opposed to team created turnovers.

They looked freaking awesome.

 

[cassius]

I'd like to see what Ehrhoff could do QB'ing the PP - Letang makes so many poor, momentum killing decisions with the puck.

 

[Will Hunting]

Yeah good lord the Rangers moved everywhere. The way they are playing right now is the best I've seen any team this year. I watched both of their west coast games and man those guys fly around the ice.

Rangers have great speed and their forecheck is great. They don't wave sticks at people. The first guy makes the hit to cause the disruption of flow and the rest of the guys work to turn the puck over. The Pens do too much stick waving and trying to do individual turnovers as opposed to team created turnovers.

They looked freaking awesome.

Thank you, Cole. The people around here need to watch Rangers some more to realize how ****ing good they are. Geez, would I hate to play them in R1 of the playoffs...That´s why we need to keep getting some points now and avoid that matchup, ideally by winning the division. We will probably play them in R2 anyway, though. They have defense, coaching, goaltending and they are very fast and dangerous offensively as well. They have almost everything, but there´s still hope because Tanner Glass plays for them... Oh well.