Salary Cap: Pens 2024 Summer Thread: "Thus, knocking us out of these superior numbers when we emerge! Mr. President, we must not allow a non-playoff bound gap!"

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Doesn't make sense for Jake to come back from either the Pens' perspective, or Jake's. /shrug

Move on.

 

[Andy99]

Sounds like he wants to stay if Dubas will resign…

Penguins rookie forward Valtteri Puustinen is eager for a return performance

In the Pittsburgh Penguins’ regular-season finale, a 5-4 road loss to the New York Islanders, on Wednesday, rookie forward Valtteri Puustinen scored his fifth goal of the season. Twice. At first, Puustinen got behind former Penguins defenseman Robert Bortuzzo and snapped a wrister by the blocker...

triblive.com

 

[66-30-33]

I'm sure Sully doesn't want Dubas to re-sign Puusy. Maybe he will go to a team that uses him. Probably the Caps.

 

[eXile3]

What issue would bringing Guentzel back solve for the issues that the team had last year? Doesn't help bottom-6 scoring. Doesn't help the PP. Doesn't help the defense. So what exactly does it solve?

Bringing Guentzel back helps the top line score more, but that's not an issue without Guentzel on the team. The top line's GF/60 at 5v5 decreased only by 7% compared to with Guentzel (3.83) and without Guentzel (3.56) last year. The top line without Guentzel is far too productive to even begin justifying spending $9 million on Guentzel, the top line simply does not need him. Even if you want to look at a multi-year sample size, the results say the same thing: Crosby's line produces a lot regardless of whether Guentzel is on his line or not.

If Guentzel was coming back to play with Malkin? I can definitely see a case to be made there. But he's not going to be doing that, so why are they paying that much money to bring him back?

It’s a valid point. I’ve said for a while now if you’re going to let Jake go, I just saw he sold his house to Rust so it doesn’t matter anyways, that the only option that makes sense is depth. Bunting plus another middle six guy equaling the 10-11 Jake will get would make them a better team overall.

I guess is just don’t want to watch Sid carry another 35 point guy. It was fun watching him with an actual talented winger. But if it’s about team success I get it.

 

[Empoleon8771]

It’s a valid point. I’ve said for a while now if you’re going to let Jake go, I just saw he sold his house to Rust so it doesn’t matter anyways, that the only option that makes sense is depth. Bunting plus another middle six guy equaling the 10-11 Jake will get would make them a better team overall.

I guess is just don’t want to watch Sid carry another 35 point guy. It was fun watching him with an actual talented winger. But if it’s about team success I get it.

I'm definitely not against adding a better guy than O'Connor for L1 and pushing O'Connor to L3, I just think Guentzel is way overkill for that kind of role. If they're splurging for that caliber of winger, I think they have to be targeting a winger for Malkin, not Crosby. Malkin simply needs the help more than Crosby does. If they bring back Guentzel, you know that they'll just go back to Guentzel-Crosby-Rust and Guentzel back on PP1 as the net front guy. They simply cannot bring him back if that's how they're going to use him.

If they're targeting a LWer in free agency to play with Crosby, I'd be looking at getting another guy on that Bunting/Rakell level to play with Crosby and use all of the remaining money to upgrade the bottom-6 and LD. Bertuzzi did have a rough year, but he'd probably be my #1 choice for a LWer to target in free agency.

Bertuzzi-Crosby-Rust
Bunting-Malkin-Rakell
O'Connor-Wennberg-Puustinen
Lafferty-Eller-Acciari

This is what I'd be shooting for as a forward group for next year, something along this. Get another Eller type of 3C to push Eller to 4C (or even a better guy than another Eller caliber guy if the money is available), a speedy grinder LW for the 4th line and Bertuzzi for the 1st line.

 

[wheelz87]

It’s a valid point. I’ve said for a while now if you’re going to let Jake go, I just saw he sold his house to Rust so it doesn’t matter anyways, that the only option that makes sense is depth. Bunting plus another middle six guy equaling the 10-11 Jake will get would make them a better team overall.

I guess is just don’t want to watch Sid carry another 35 point guy. It was fun watching him with an actual talented winger. But if it’s about team success I get it.

But that’s what this team has now and it’s not working. Rakell and Smith 5 mil each and they suck. Bunting 4.5. Rust a little over 5. I’m cool with the later two. Jake at 9 or Raks/Smith? I mean Jake is gonna move on but a Jake replacement top end guy is needed.

Raks, Smith, Graves, Jarry contracts are just absolutely brutal.

 

[Empoleon8771]

But that’s what this team has now and it’s not working. Rakell and Smith 5 mil each and they suck. Bunting 4.5. Rust a little over 5. I’m cool with the later two. Jake at 9 or Raks/Smith? I mean Jake is gonna move on but a Jake replacement top end guy is needed.

Raks, Smith, Graves, Jarry contracts are just absolutely brutal.

Again, why is a Jake replacement needed? What need does Guentzel fill that was an issue on the team last year?

Maybe Malkin needs an upgrade on Rakell rather than running with Bunting-Malkin-Rakell, but that's really about it. Crosby's line flat out does not need to add another Guentzel caliber guy.

 

[Empoleon8771]

This is a lineup I made without doing anything too ludicrously unlikely that fits with an $87.5 million cap:

-Trade Smith at $3 million to Vegas for McNabb
-Sign Wennberg (3 years at $3.5 million) and Bertuzzi (4 years at $4.5 million) in UFA
-Re-sign Puustinen (2 years at $1.5 million), St. Ivany (2 years at $800k) and Poulin (2 years at $800k)

Bertuzzi-Crosby-Rust
Bunting-Malkin-Rakell
O'Connor-Wennberg-Puustinen
Poulin-Eller-Acciari
Nieto-Puljujarvi

Pettersson-Karlsson
McNabb-Letang
Graves-St. Ivany
Ludvig

Jarry-Blomqvist

This team has a bit over $1 million in cap space with an $87.5 million cap. You can also re-sign POJ and see if he can play RD, which would push St. Ivany or Ludvig out, but I'm personally okay with just sending POJ out for the highest draft pick you can get for him.

 

[Pancakes]

Again, why is a Jake replacement needed? What need does Guentzel fill that was an issue on the team last year?

Offense? Scoring was and continues to be an issue. It might be an even bigger one with him gone.

I think it's dangerous to see Sid's line have success post trade deadline and just assume that Guentzel is not needed any more. That's not the largest sample size.

I'm not saying that means Jake needs to come back and I don't think he's interested in doing so anyhow. But they're gonna have to find some additional offense somehow.

 

[Zbynek]

Just remembered that the Flyers still have 3 full seasons of Ilya Bryzgalov's buyout to pay. Incredible stuff.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Damn, 36 points, +16 from Heinen at 775k. But we gave that spot to Harkins hahahaha
Good lord I hate this coach.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Offense? Scoring was and continues to be an issue. It might be an even bigger one with him gone.

I think it's dangerous to see Sid's line have success post trade deadline and just assume that Guentzel is not needed any more. That's not the largest sample size.

I'm not saying that means Jake needs to come back and I don't think he's interested in doing so anyhow. But they're gonna have to find some additional offense somehow.

Scoring has never been an issue with Crosby's line regardless of whether Guentzel is on that line or not. This isn't just "post trade deadline", Crosby's line has never had issues producing without Guentzel.

Going all the way back to when Guentzel first turned pro, here are Crosby's 5v5 numbers without Guentzel and with Guentzel:

-With: 4477.5 minutes TOI, 245 goals, 3.28 5v5 goals/60
-Without: 1791.33 minutes TOI, 101 goals, 3.38 5v5 goals/60

It's not just a post-trade deadline sample size. This doesn't mean you can put any Harkins kind of schmuck on that line, but spending $9 million on Guentzel rather than like $5 million on Bertuzzi is just a waste of an extra $4 million that can go elsewhere on the roster. This team needs additional offense from the powerplay and bottom-6. Spending a boatload of money on Guentzel accomplishes neither of those and uses up all of their cap space to actually address the issues on the team.

@Gurglesons made an argument before the deadline that Rakell could slide into Guentzel's spot and he'd produce just as much as Guentzel. I don't quite agree with that, but it's correct in that all evidence we have suggests that the top line would not suffer with Rakell (or another Rakell caliber guy) in the spot over Guentzel.

 

[HandshakeLine]

They got a winger for Malkin and a net front guy for the PP signed for two more seasons at $4.5M.

They could have gotten a higher quality winger or better prospects. Don’t get me wrong I like Bunting now but I don’t think he’s going to be putting up elite or even necessarily top 6 numbers next year. He’s a tweeter, like Rackell.

 

[eXile3]

But that’s what this team has now and it’s not working. Rakell and Smith 5 mil each and they suck. Bunting 4.5. Rust a little over 5. I’m cool with the later two. Jake at 9 or Raks/Smith? I mean Jake is gonna move on but a Jake replacement top end guy is needed.

Raks, Smith, Graves, Jarry contracts are just absolutely brutal.

That doesn’t make sense. If you’re going to look for another top end guy why not just keep Jake? He’s the best you’re going to find?

 

[Al Smith]

Damn, 36 points, +16 from Heinen at 775k. But we gave that spot to Harkins hahahaha
Good lord I hate this coach.

Those are about the same as DH's numbers with the Pens two years ago. Then he declined significantly the next year and the Pens let him go. I don't think anyone here (maybe there was an exception or two) mourning his loss. Even in his first year here, he was a favorite whipping boy.

But yeah, Harkins playing as much as he did was inexcusable. Pens management and coaching probably thinking Carter won't be here next year to hold him back so the sky's the limit.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Those are about the same as DH's numbers with the Pens two years ago. Then he declined significantly the next year and the Pens let him go. I don't think anyone here (maybe there was an exception or two) mourning his loss. Even in his first year here, he was a favorite whipping boy.

But yeah, Harkins playing as much as he did was inexcusable. Pens management and coaching probably thinking Carter won't be here next year to hold him back so the sky's the limit.

Why are you telling me about people's reactions here, like that's supposed to have any meaning? People here are wrong, consistently, all year. They make takes based on emotions rather than research. I don't care about that. I'm talking about reality.

When a guy has 30+ point potential, is competent defensively and is only asking for league minimum, you re-sign him...all day, every day.
You know why? Because you're not gonna do better with 775K unless it's a solid prospect on an ELC.

And that's exactly what happened. Harkins got 4 points. Heinen got 36.
That declining production in year 2 is largely a result of slashed and more difficult usage. Compare the stats. Go to Hockey Reference.
That's just Sullivan being his usual idiot self and not supporting his offensive-minded players who aren't in the top-six. His priority is the penalty kill. And we saw where that leads us.

 

[Pancakes]

Scoring has never been an issue with Crosby's line regardless of whether Guentzel is on that line or not. This isn't just "post trade deadline", Crosby's line has never had issues producing without Guentzel.

Crosby's also gonna be turning 37 next year. I'm leery of saddling him with DOC and Rust and assuming everything will work out.

I know that's not what you're advocating since you want Bertuzzi. That would be fine. They do need someone there though whether Bert or whoever.

My ideal off season involves unloading Smith/Jarry, grabbing a top six winger, and then using the remaining funds to bolster the bottom six.

I think the defense can be as is. Let POJ and St Ivany run with it on the third pairing. Let Ludvig compete for playing time as well. There's absolutely zero need to bring in another defenseman. Maybe bring in some cheap vet to also push for a spot if needed, but no more than that. Someone on a $1mil or less deal a la Ruhwedel.

Graves stinks but the Pens have little choice but to hope for a rebound from him.

 

[Turin]

Ftr I also am not saying DOC is a fine replacement for Guentzel. But somebody who won't cost 9 mil for many seasons.

 

[Al Smith]

Why are you telling me about people's reactions here, like that's supposed to have any meaning? People here are wrong, consistently, all year. They make takes based on emotions rather than research. I don't care about that. I'm talking about reality.

When a guy has 30+ point potential, is competent defensively and is only asking for league minimum, you re-sign him...all day, every day.
You know why? Because you're not gonna do better with 775K unless it's a solid prospect on an ELC.

And that's exactly what happened. Harkins got 4 points. Heinen got 36.
That declining production in year 2 is largely a result of slashed and more difficult usage. Compare the stats. Go to Hockey Reference.
That's just Sullivan being his usual idiot self and not supporting his offensive-minded players who aren't in the top-six. His priority is the penalty kill. And we saw where that leads us.

You're suggesting that there was some regret here or anywhere about Heinen leaving and there wasn't because he was pretty bad - offensively and defensively - his second year here. His usage declined because he played badly.

It doesn't excuse playing Harkins. Probably just about any hack from WBS could have performed better offensively. Hell, they could have pulled Kevin Porter from behind the bench and he probably could have mustered no goals and four assists.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I think there was definitely some regret that we claimed a dude who went longer than most enforcers without scoring a goal.

 

[Al Smith]

I think there was definitely some regret that we claimed a dude who went longer than most enforcers without scoring a goal.

Harkin's has gone longer than our goalie without scoring a goal.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

You're suggesting that there was some regret here or anywhere about Heinen leaving and there wasn't because he was pretty bad - offensively and defensively - his second year here. His usage declined because he played badly.

It doesn't excuse playing Harkins. Probably just about any hack from WBS could have performed better offensively. Hell, they could have pulled Kevin Porter from behind the bench and he probably could have mustered no goals and four assists.

His usage declined because he got way less rope here than all the defensively-minded players. That's how it's always been with bottom-sixers who can score here.
What you're supposed to do in that situation is coach them, knowing the guy put up 33 points for you the year before. You don't crush their confidence.
Move them up for short stints. Give them the odd game with big minutes. Make them feel less miserable.
Heinen for example did wonderfully with Sid to start that year, but then he was never tried with him again.

Sullivan doesn't value bottom-six scorers, and it bites him all the time. But the PK-eligible guys get all the rope in the f***ing world. It's ridiculous.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Crosby's also gonna be turning 37 next year. I'm leery of saddling him with DOC and Rust and assuming everything will work out.

I know that's not what you're advocating since you want Bertuzzi. That would be fine. They do need someone there though whether Bert or whoever.

My ideal off season involves unloading Smith/Jarry, grabbing a top six winger, and then using the remaining funds to bolster the bottom six.

I think the defense can be as is. Let POJ and St Ivany run with it on the third pairing. Let Ludvig compete for playing time as well. There's absolutely zero need to bring in another defenseman. Maybe bring in some cheap vet to also push for a spot if needed, but no more than that. Someone on a $1mil or less deal a la Ruhwedel.

Graves stinks but the Pens have little choice but to hope for a rebound from him.

The thing with Guentzel to me is that he's clearly an elite player and meshes great with Crosby, but this team fundamentally cannot justify paying him what he's going to cost. I definitely understand now wanting to go into next year with O'Connor in the role, especially with O'Connor's old struggles. I just can't come up with any legitimate justification for spending as much money as what Guentzel will cost to be the guy who replaces O'Connor. It just seems like overkill and an overuse of cap space for what's needed for the role.

Now if we were talking a Guentzel caliber winger to replace Rakell and play with Malkin, I'm actually all ears for that. I don't know who that would be, but I think there is a much stronger argument to target say Reinhart for Guentzel's money to play with Malkin than to target Guentzel to go back to playing with Crosby. I don't think Reinhart leaves Florida, but the 2nd line has been spotty enough over the past few years that getting an elite guy on par with Guentzel for that line makes sense. Malkin is clearly worse than Crosby at this point and Malkin's line doesn't have nearly the track record of success as Crosby's does, so I definitely think you can easily justify spending huge money on a RW for Malkin.

If they could guarantee that the top-6 would be this next year:

Bunting-Crosby-Rakell
Guentzel-Malkin-Rust

I'd be infinitely more interested in bringing back Guentzel. But let's be real, that's never going to happen.

 

[wheelz87]

Again, why is a Jake replacement needed? What need does Guentzel fill that was an issue on the team last year?

Maybe Malkin needs an upgrade on Rakell rather than running with Bunting-Malkin-Rakell, but that's really about it. Crosby's line flat out does not need to add another Guentzel caliber guy.

Yes we need a Jake replacement. Idc if its for Sid or Geno. We need talent. You moved DOC to third line on your lineup. Which I'm on board with. Guy who can easily move up if need be. WTF does Bertuzzi add? Dude sucks and is trending down. 29 years old.

DOC actually does a ton for the Sid line - so if he stays there idc. It is so unfair to Sid and Geno, nearing their 20th seasons each, for them to STILL be the best and second best players on the team. Its ridiculous. We added Phil and immediately won cups. We need another game changer.

That doesn’t make sense. If you’re going to look for another top end guy why not just keep Jake? He’s the best you’re going to find?

I mean I'd be fine with that, just don't see it happening at this point.

Those are about the same as DH's numbers with the Pens two years ago. Then he declined significantly the next year and the Pens let him go. I don't think anyone here (maybe there was an exception or two) mourning his loss. Even in his first year here, he was a favorite whipping boy.

But yeah, Harkins playing as much as he did was inexcusable. Pens management and coaching probably thinking Carter won't be here next year to hold him back so the sky's the limit.

Bang on. Heinen was solid his first year here. And did nothing his second. Everyone wanted him gone. God anytime a former Pen does anything it has to be brought up.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yes we need a Jake replacement. Idc if its for Sid or Geno. We need talent. You moved DOC to third line on your lineup. Which I'm on board with. Guy who can easily move up if need be. WTF does Bertuzzi add? Dude sucks and is trending down. 29 years old.

DOC actually does a ton for the Sid line - so if he stays there idc. It is so unfair to Sid and Geno, nearing their 20th seasons each, for them to STILL be the best and second best players on the team. Its ridiculous. We added Phil and immediately won cups. We need another game changer.

I mean I'd be fine with that, just don't see it happening at this point.


Bang on. Heinen was solid his first year here. And did nothing his second. Everyone wanted him gone. God anytime a former Pen does anything it has to be brought up.

You didn’t answer my question. What issues that caused the team to miss the playoffs last year will be solved by bringing back Guentzel?

Crosby doesn’t need him. Malkin would, but Sullivan won’t use him like that. He doesn’t help the powerplay or bottom-6 scoring. You’re basically throwing away an excess of $4 million on a needless player by bringing him back.