Value of: Penguins trading up to #3 with Chicago

[Empoleon8771]

From Wheeler's mock draft posted this morning:

This aligns with what Dubas has said about Martone in the past, so it seems like the Penguins love Martone and would need to move up to #3 to make sure they get him. What would be the cost here?

I have a feeling the cost here will be the Penguins 2026 1st, it's just a question of what kind of protections/clauses will be on that pick.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Ahhh Wheeler.

Funny thing, I was going through 2022 Draft Rankings yesterday and stumbled on his Final ranking. I wanted to laugh that he had Marco Kasper 24th in that draft... And then scrolled down one slot later to find he had Pavel Mintyukov ranked 25th.

... This is the guy who gets enraged if you point out that he's a stat watcher who doesn't value defensive hockey or well-rounded players.

Sorry I know that's not really on topic... I just love shitting on the guy when I can. He's a hack.

 

[JasonPENSKoch]

#11 + #12 (If the rangers give it up) + rust or rakell for #3 gets it done?

 

[Empoleon8771]

#11 + #12 (If the rangers give it up) + rust or rakell for #3 gets it done?

I think it would either be something like this (probably #11, #12 and Rust) or the Penguins 2026 1st. I would bet the Penguins would prefer the 1st while Chicago would prefer the 2nd.

 

[Mrfenn92]

Really don’t see the hawks moving down for older wingers, still good and all.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Going to be prohibitive. Why would Hawks move off that slot.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Ahhh Wheeler.

Funny thing, I was going through 2022 Draft Rankings yesterday and stumbled on his Final ranking. I wanted to laugh that he had Marco Kasper 24th in that draft... And then scrolled down one slot later to find he had Pavel Mintyukov ranked 25th.

... This is the guy who gets enraged if you point out that he's a stat watcher who doesn't value defensive hockey or well-rounded players.

Sorry I know that's not really on topic... I just love shitting on the guy when I can. He's a hack.

I used to do the same, but to be fair I think he's learned.

He has Mrtka higher than most in the top 10.

 

[Ottawa2171]

I don't see Chicago having the appetite to move off of the pick

 

[Empoleon8771]

Going to be prohibitive. Why would Hawks move off that slot.

I think the Penguins would have to offer their 2026 1st and Chicago would have to think that the guys at the top of the 2026 draft are far better than Frondell and Martone.

The Penguins just can't give up McKenna for Martone, but if you could like top-2 protect that pick, I would do that pick for Martone. It would basically be Chicago trading Martone for a pick that is likely someone like Verhoeff or Roobroeck, which I think is an upgrade for Chicago IMO.

At the same point, the Penguins could just take Roobroeck in 2026 and I think he's a very similar prospect to Martone, so I'm not entirely sure why they would move their 2026 1st just to get Martone. They'd have to think Martone is a super special prospect to do that I think.

 

[Drumman44]

Penguins have good players that would make Chicago better, but we aren’t really at that point yet.

Only way I could see this would be if Kyle Dubas pulls a Kyle-From-Chicago and offers a pick swap for 2026 first rounder, like we offered to CBJ last year. That would pull Pittsburgh out of the McKenna sweepstakes but gets them third overall in this draft. Kind of a tough call.

 

[MHO]

From the Hawks' perspective, I'd do it for 11, their 1st next year, and one of Rust or Rackell. I highly doubt Pittsburgh would give up a shot at McKenna for 3OA this year but that's probably what it would take.

 

[Empoleon8771]

From the Hawks' perspective, I'd do it for 11, their 1st next year, and one of Rust or Rackell. I highly doubt Pittsburgh would give up a shot at McKenna for 3OA this year but that's probably what it would take.

This is a huge overpay from the Penguins. An unprotected 1st next year alone is worth more than #3 this year, not only because of McKenna but also because the top-10 next year is stronger than the top-10 this year.

IMO the discussion should be around the Penguins 2026 1st with some sort of McKenna protection for #3. Something like the 1st with top-2 protection for #3 this year, where it slides to an unprotected 2027 1st if the Penguins do finish with the #1 or #2 pick in 2026.

 

[Drumman44]

IMO the discussion should be around the Penguins 2026 1st with some sort of McKenna protection for #3. Something like the 1st with top-2 protection for #3 this year, where it slides to an unprotected 2027 1st if the Penguins do finish with the #1 or #2 pick in 2026.

I don’t disagree but I think it has to be an overpay to make it happen.

Crude analogy: someone could knock on my front door and offer to buy my house for the Zestimate value, which may be a fair price. But I’m not really looking to move so they’ll have to offer a premium over the fair value for me to take the offer.

I’d probably do it as a pick swap with Top 1 protection?

 

[Voight]

This is a huge overpay from the Penguins. An unprotected 1st next year alone is worth more than #3 this year, not only because of McKenna but also because the top-10 next year is stronger than the top-10 this year.

IMO the discussion should be around the Penguins 2026 1st with some sort of McKenna protection for #3. Something like the 1st with top-2 protection for #3 this year, where it slides to an unprotected 2027 1st if the Penguins do finish with the #1 or #2 pick in 2026.

0 chance the Blackhawks trade the #3 pick this year for a protected first next year.

 

[MHO]

This is a huge overpay from the Penguins. An unprotected 1st next year alone is worth more than #3 this year, not only because of McKenna but also because the top-10 next year is stronger than the top-10 this year.

IMO the discussion should be around the Penguins 2026 1st with some sort of McKenna protection for #3. Something like the 1st with top-2 protection for #3 this year, where it slides to an unprotected 2027 1st if the Penguins do finish with the #1 or #2 pick in 2026.

Hey when you come to the table asking for something, you're not always going to like the answer. If I'm the GM of the Hawks, that's what it would take to pry 3OA away from me. I'd consider the deal if the 2026 1st was top 2 protected.

The only kinds of assets that Chicago would give up significant capital for would be young forwards with both size and skill in which Pittsburgh does not have.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don’t disagree but I think it has to be an overpay to make it happen.

Crude analogy: someone could knock on my front door and offer to buy my house for the Zestimate value, which may be a fair price. But I’m not really looking to move so they’ll have to offer a premium over the fair value for me to take the offer.

I’d probably do it as a pick swap with Top 1 protection?

Yeah I think for the deal to happen, it would require Chicago to like the prospects at the top of the 2026 draft far more than Martone and Frondell. So the "premium" is getting someone like Verhoeff or Roobroeck instead of Frondell this year. Personally I think Verhoeff and Roobroeck are better than Frondell and Martone this year, but I'm not the GM and Dubas/Davidson may feel differently.

But most importantly, it just can't be McKenna for Martone. There needs to just be some sort of protection so it's not McKenna for Martone. Even if it's just #1 protected, that would be needed.

0 chance the Blackhawks trade the #3 pick this year for a protected first next year.

The "protection" is "Gavin McKenna protection". No team is trading a potential Gavin McKenna pick for a 1st this year.

 

[ikyan]

I would think this would be similar to Chicago's offer last year.

Something like Pens 2026 unprotected and something with the value of a late 1st for risk.

Pens 2026 1st unprotected and McGroarty for 3rd overall would be the offer imo.

 

[Clint Eastwood]

Penguins have good players that would make Chicago better, but we aren’t really at that point yet.

Only way I could see this would be if Kyle Dubas pulls a Kyle-From-Chicago and offers a pick swap for 2026 first rounder, like we offered to CBJ last year. That would pull Pittsburgh out of the McKenna sweepstakes but gets them third overall in this draft. Kind of a tough call.

I know there's a butterfly effect if that trade happens but I'm ignoring that for a second If that trade was made:

Chicago would have Demidov (I believe they wanted to make that trade for Demidov, right?) instead of 3OA this year and Columbus would have 3OA this year instead of Cayden Lindstrom who has a massive back injury.

Could've been a win/win in hindsight but hindsight makes fortune tellers of us all. We also don't know how much Demidov will pan out compared to whoever Chicago takes whether it's Frondell, Martone, etc. Lindstrom also might bounce back. Time will tell.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I think the Penguins would have to offer their 2026 1st and Chicago would have to think that the guys at the top of the 2026 draft are far better than Frondell and Martone.

The Penguins just can't give up McKenna for Martone, but if you could like top-2 protect that pick, I would do that pick for Martone. It would basically be Chicago trading Martone for a pick that is likely someone like Verhoeff or Roobroeck, which I think is an upgrade for Chicago IMO.

At the same point, the Penguins could just take Roobroeck in 2026 and I think he's a very similar prospect to Martone, so I'm not entirely sure why they would move their 2026 1st just to get Martone. They'd have to think Martone is a super special prospect to do that I think.

My point is the Hawks don’t want to delay getting a top pick for a year. They want to be better next season and then introduce their ‘25 3OA in 2026-27.

So you need to overpay to do it. Pass. It’s going to be a prohibitive cost. Doesn’t matter what is “fair” in a vacuum.

 

[UnSandvich]

Yeah I think for the deal to happen, it would require Chicago to like the prospects at the top of the 2026 draft far more than Martone and Frondell. So the "premium" is getting someone like Verhoeff or Roobroeck instead of Frondell this year. Personally I think Verhoeff and Roobroeck are better than Frondell and Martone this year, but I'm not the GM and Dubas/Davidson may feel differently.

But most importantly, it just can't be McKenna for Martone. There needs to just be some sort of protection so it's not McKenna for Martone. Even if it's just #1 protected, that would be needed.



The "protection" is "Gavin McKenna protection". No team is trading a potential Gavin McKenna pick for a 1st this year.

The key here though is that the Penguins are trading up for the pick. Why should Chicago accept less than an unprotected 1st for a Top 3 pick? You can say Pittsburgh is likely to pick in that range next year, but what protections does Chicago have against them not doing so?

If the pick is going to be protected, even just Top 1 protected, what is Pittsburgh adding to make up the gap that adds?

 

[Drumman44]

I know there's a butterfly effect if that trade happens but I'm ignoring that for a second If that trade was made:

Chicago would have Demidov (I believe they wanted to make that trade for Demidov, right?) instead of 3OA this year and Columbus would have 3OA this year instead of Cayden Lindstrom who has a massive back injury.

Could've been a win/win in hindsight but hindsight makes fortune tellers of us all. We also don't know how much Demidov will pan out compared to whoever Chicago takes whether it's Frondell, Martone, etc. Lindstrom also might bounce back. Time will tell.

Blackhawks also offered a later round 2024 pick in addition to the swap. So Columbus could have potentially turned Lindstrom into Boisvert (who we like and see as a center) and Frondell (potentially)

 

[TLEH]

There is still enough talent on the Pens roster that I wouldn't feel comfortable doing this for a protected pick. Would have to be completely unprotected.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The key here though is that the Penguins are trading up for the pick. Why should Chicago accept less than an unprotected 1st for a Top 3 pick? You can say Pittsburgh is likely to pick in that range next year, but what protections does Chicago have against them not doing so?

If the pick is going to be protected, even just Top 1 protected, what is Pittsburgh adding to make up the gap that adds?

Yeah that makes sense, I wonder if swapping #11 for one of Chicago's later 1sts/early 2nds could bridge that gap?

So #3 and #25 for #11 and a top-2 protected 2026 1st?

 

[GCK]

I think Pittsburgh would be better off trying to get Nashville’s pick if Martone is still available.

 

[qcal1427]

I think it would have to be for the unprotected 26 Pens first no?