Proposal: Penguins off-season moves (Lightning, Devils and Wings)

[chethejet]

Rakell was really good with Crosby when he arrived. It was Sullivan and his stupid decision not to play him with Sid. Rakell was injured for most of 2023 and came back healthy and you see his play. I don't move him unless it is such an offer that Dubas will do so. It will take more than the typical low ball deals that tend to favor your team. Dubas is under zero pressure here and no way with Sid he takes away his wing unless it blows dubas away.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I continue to harp on the differences between a number 2 and number 3 on a line, but I think Rakell is a perfect example of this.

When he was the number 3 on the line with Crosby and Guentzel, his production was okay, nothing special.

It was only when he was the wingman to crosby (and his shooting % went to 17% after shooting 9% for the previous 6 years) that his production.

NJD already has the wingmen in Bratt and Meier, so Rakell would be back to the 3rd guy role.

Not really. Rakell only played with Crosby and Guentzel in 2022-2023, where he had 28 goals and 60 points. His bad 2023-2024 season was mostly him playing with Malkin and while playing injured.

The jump to 35 goals and 70 points was because he became Crosby's triggerman, but he was a very productive third member of that line in the past as well when it was Guentzel-Crosby-Rakell.

 

[edevils]

Not sure:
- Turning Rakell into Mercer, I'd rather have Rakell and any other cheaper rookie C
- I don't think you get Burium, regardless of what's being offered, Karlsson at half or not. It isn't like the Wild is a contender atm.

Edit: even for Shai, same logic, don't think Wings value Karlsson at 35, 36...

Mercer is a winger. Attempts to play him at C haven't been too promising.

 

[DesertPenguin]

We're so thin on D I can't justify giving up Pickering unless it's for another D coming back. He needs to work.

 

[Empoleon8771]

We're so thin on D I can't justify giving up Pickering unless it's for another D coming back. He needs to work.

That's why I was targeting Willander or Buium in the Karlsson deal, to effectively replace Pickering in the system.

I'd do that plus plan on drafting Aitcheson at #11.

 

[dgibb10]

Not really. Rakell only played with Crosby and Guentzel in 2022-2023, where he had 28 goals and 60 points. His bad 2023-2024 season was mostly him playing with Malkin and while playing injured.

The jump to 35 goals and 70 points was because he became Crosby's triggerman, but he was a very productive third member of that line in the past as well when it was Guentzel-Crosby-Rakell.

Yes, I wasn't particularly moved by that 22-23 either.

Again, nothing against rakell, I just frankly have no interest in spending our assets on a guy who we'd be using as the 3rd guy on a line and on PP2.

Rakell is a guy who is a PP1 weapon (although with questionable success based on pittsburghs PP results lately), and a valuable 2nd option winger. And pittsburgh is 100% right to ask for a price that reflects that

But that is not the hole/piece NJD is filling. Regardless of how good Rakell is, he almost certainly drops down to a 20-50 guy when you make him a 3rd option on his line and send him down to PP2. (his EV averages are about 18g-22a/82 games over both the last 3 years and throughout his whole career, so that's estimating him about 10 points on PP2 plugging him into Mercers minutes there)

 

[SEALBound]

a 35/35 guy at 19+ minutes a night and PP1 time, shooting 17.2% (he shot 9.2% in the 6 years prior, a big red flag to me)

NJD does not need Rakell's PP contributions. There are teams that do (and Rakell will have more value to said teams), but I think we can both agree NJDs 28+% PP does not, correct? Mercer being a key member of our elite PK however is something we need. So just from a starting point we downgrade on special teams with this trade.

So we need to look at 5v5.

I am also a firm believer of the diminishing returns you get investing in the 3rd best guy on a line, which Rakell would be.

In Pitt he was the 2nd guy on the line alongside crosby this year, and produced very well
But, if you look back before, when Guentzel was still there and he was not said number 2, the production was a LOT lower.

To a team looking for a wingman for one of their top Cs, I think Rakell works great. For a team looking for a complimentary 3rd guy, I think the value is a lot less.

To summarize, I'd pass, and this is nothing against Rakell as a player, but I just think paying PP1 wingman prices for a guy who you will use as a PP2 complimentary piece doesn't make sense

1. Yes you do. Every team "needs help" on the powerplay. You can't have enough "help" on the powerplay.

2. It would depend on the line Rakell is on to determine if he's "third" best. After Bratt, he's a strong candidate to be your 2nd best winger. Right up there with Meier and Palat but likely better and on a much better deal.

3. Rakell had a down year last year but his shooting percentage was nearly a career low. Those of us that watched him (not using that as a "bro what da gamez!" argument) could see that he was generating changes, forechecking well, and being a genuinely great contributer to the play...he was just missing the net to a near comical level that everyone knew wouldn't last and low and behold, it didn't. Playing the same style, he pots 35 goals. Yes, he does it with Sid, but in NJ, he's with Hischier or Hughes. They aren't Sid, but they are no slouches either. The drop (if any) is not that significant. So I don't buy any "well he's only good because he's with Sid".

4. One of the more important things to consider when discussing 5v5 over the past three seasons that we've had him is that while he may seem like a complementary piece, he has done A TON to drive play. There were many instances where a play Rakell makes leads to a goal but he's left off the scoresheet. It was noted by myself and others that his contributions to the play are clearly going beyond what the score sheet is saying.

I would be tit for tat, dollar vs dollar, Rakell was a much more impactful player this last year than Mercer. For $1mil more, that's a hell of a value for the next three years.

 

[dgibb10]

1. Yes you do. Every team "needs help" on the powerplay. You can't have enough "help" on the powerplay.

2. It would depend on the line Rakell is on to determine if he's "third" best. After Bratt, he's a strong candidate to be your 2nd best winger. Right up there with Meier and Palat but likely better and on a much better deal.

3. Rakell had a down year last year but his shooting percentage was nearly a career low. Those of us that watched him (not using that as a "bro what da gamez!" argument) could see that he was generating changes, forechecking well, and being a genuinely great contributer to the play...he was just missing the net to a near comical level that everyone knew wouldn't last and low and behold, it didn't. Playing the same style, he pots 35 goals. Yes, he does it with Sid, but in NJ, he's with Hischier or Hughes. They aren't Sid, but they are no slouches either. The drop (if any) is not that significant. So I don't buy any "well he's only good because he's with Sid".

4. One of the more important things to consider when discussing 5v5 over the past three seasons that we've had him is that while he may seem like a complementary piece, he has done A TON to drive play. There were many instances where a play Rakell makes leads to a goal but he's left off the scoresheet. It was noted by myself and others that his contributions to the play are clearly going beyond what the score sheet is saying.

I would be tit for tat, dollar vs dollar, Rakell was a much more impactful player this last year than Mercer. For $1mil more, that's a hell of a value for the next three years.

1) NJDs PP is at 28% and already has TOO MANY bodies there. Timo Meier is unable to play on PP1 because of said overflow. Special teams has another side too. Mercer played more PK minutes than any other NJD forward on a top 2 PK in the league.

The only roles that NJD is looking for on the PP is an offensively gifted C to win faceoffs on PP2, and maybe a netfront guy(although noesen fills that role quite well).

2) I'm not going to get into the Meier argument (he and toffoli in fact are literally a peak example of the production drop when you try and move a guy into a smaller role and take him off PP1) but regardless of who you think is pushed to the 3rd winger, it doesn't matter.

Let's say Rakell pushes Meier down in role, then what? Meier's production drops (and he is really not a 3rd guy on a line at all with his shooting and possession tendencies) and you've STILL wasted value/impact there.

3) Rakell in the half decade prior to 23-24 shot 9.5%. How is a 0.4% drop from that a "near comical level". And he is a career 11.7% shooter. Arguing that a career 11% shooter shooting 9.2 % is not realistic but him shooting 17+% is reasonable is a wild take.

4) yes that is how hockey works. not every chance you create gets you a point. This applies to literally every player.


Yes, Rakell was significantly better than Mercer in 24-25. But I can't just ignore the other years from Rakell and trust him shooting 17% as a 32 year old as something to maintain.

And there is just limited upside here.

You're getting older, more expensive, worse on the PK, and riskier for a 3rd guy on lines that already basically drive themselves with 2 guys and really aren't impacted by the 3rd guy on said line. (in fact Nico is basically a guy who drives the full line himself independent of teammates, so even the 2nd guy in that line is somewhat wasted).

See: Ondrej Palat: brought in to play with Jack and Bratt to be an "upgrade on Yegor". Did not change their results, and in fact Haula worked best
See: Meier, brought in to play with Jack and Bratt to be an upgrade there. It did not help them and in fact they fit terribly together stylistically (only 1 puck)
See: Toffoli, brought in to play with Jack and Bratt to be an upgrade there. It did not help them

How many times do we have to do this charade, how many assets do we have to spend. I'd rather cycle through 950k prospects (Gritysuk, then Lenni, then some other pick etc etc etc) and undervalued guys who FIT rather than repeatedly spending major assets and money for minimal improvements to something that already works. As you should know from Crosby and Malkin, your superstar is enough to make a line go. What NJD needs more than anything is the Jordan Staal.

Now, Jack and Bratt individually cannot reach the level. But as a duo, they crush their minutes no matter who you stick on the wing with them.

 

[Vergil]

Gonna have to report you for the Penguins-Devils trade proposal as it is way too in the reasonable range to cause sufficient rage on these boards. This place has a reputation to protect after all

Devils haven't exactly always connected when they acquire guys in their 30s but this is a move is plausible

I think Rakell will be more of the Toffoli fit for them than the Timo Meier or Palat misfit. It's a great acquisition idea. Assuming they don't move Mercer in a Quinn Hughes deal. And that very well may happen, especially if Vancouver is convinced he can play center... well, they can learn the hard way I guess.

 

[Zippy316]

I’m hesitant to give up Mercer, but this is a deal I would 100% do from a Devils perspective.

Devils should add more here, but this may be a deal where they can get away with a one-for-one due to Mercer’s draft pedigree and selling his upside.

Can Rakell play center at all? I know he’s been primarily a wing, but even having the option to slide to 2C or 3C could be valuable.

 

[Smitty426]

1) NJDs PP is at 28% and already has TOO MANY bodies there. Timo Meier is unable to play on PP1 because of said overflow. Special teams has another side too. Mercer played more PK minutes than any other NJD forward on a top 2 PK in the league.

The only roles that NJD is looking for on the PP is an offensively gifted C to win faceoffs on PP2, and maybe a netfront guy(although noesen fills that role quite well).

Kevin Stenlund in Utah
Checks a bunch of boxes for us

 

[dgibb10]

I think Rakell will be more of the Toffoli fit for them than the Timo Meier or Palat misfit. It's a great acquisition idea. Assuming they don't move Mercer in a Quinn Hughes deal. And that very well may happen, especially if Vancouver is convinced he can play center... well, they can learn the hard way I guess.

Toffoli did not improve Jack+Bratt in the slightest. Sure he got PP1 time and his stats looked nice, but did having Toffoli on their line make Jack-Bratt win their minutes more than they did with Haula or Palat or Yegor or Mercer or whoever? Not really tbh.

 

[datsyukfan]

Trade 1:

Penguins trade Pickering and St. Louis' 2026 2nd
Lightning trade Howard

Pretty straightforward prospect swap. The Lightning seem extremely thin on LHD prospects in their system, while Pickering fills a pretty obvious need in the organization as a future top-4 LHD. He can likely play in the NHL next year and eventually take over for McDonagh's spot on the 2nd pair. Howard is another good NHL ready prospect that the Penguins likely wouldn't be in a position to get if he was willing to sign with Tampa, one that can likely make it easier for them to move on from Rakell or Rust. The 2nd is to just add more value to Tampa and convince them to take that deal over other offers they'd likely be getting.

Trade 2:

Penguins trade Rakell
Devils trade Mercer

This one feels weird because I don't know who adds on it, but I'll just leave it as straight up with noting that I can see either team having to add here. Mercer has seemingly stagnated with the Devils, with putting up only 33 and 36 points in the past 2 seasons. Fitzgerald said yesterday that the team is going to be making changes to improve this off-season, so I think Mercer sticks out as a guy that could be upgraded on. The Penguins are taking a chance with a younger player while the Devils get the currently better player.

Trade 3:

Penguins trade Karlsson at $5 million
Wings trade Wallinder/Buium and a 2026 2nd

This has the Penguins selling while the Wings trying to make a push to get over the hump and make the playoffs. Wallinder and Buium (curious to hear from Wings fans who they value more) are LHD prospects that will replace Pickering in the system. The Wings get a legit 2nd pair RD to play behind Seider and add another offensive element from their defensemen.

In total, the trades are basically Pickering, Rakell and Karlsson at 50% for Howard, Mercer and Wallinder/Buium.

I actually don’t hate something like this as a wings fan if they don’t plan on having ASP in the NHL next year, but I think Detroit would probably want you to take bad Gustafson or Holl in the deal. Add a really good shutdown D to play with either Seider or Karlsson like Gavrikov

25/26

Gav/ Edvinson-Seider
Gav/Edvinson-Karlsson
Chiarot-Johansson
Gus/Holl

26/27

Same top 4

joahansson-ASP
Wallinder/Buium (whichever isn’t dealt)

 

[KrisLeturnover]

Not too bad at all. I like this as a Pens fan. With Pickering going out, you definitely to acquire a D prospect, which you have included.

I see some Red Wings fans taking issue with the Karlsson deal. What would you guys think about bumping the 2nd to a 3rd? I'd be okay with that.

To be fair, I think Karlsson would thrive on a team that gives him more playmaking freedom. The Pens are currently not one of those teams. Detroit might work.

 

[Jared Dunn]

Are you looking at actual game play ability or merely at age because it seems like the latter. Even at 35, he's still a very high end PMD. Seems like an ideal 2RD to put out after Seider. Pair him with Edvinsson and I think you have a very effect pairing at both ends.

Especially at the proposed cost.

I think with ASP expected to come over next year they will be looking for a more defensive D if they're adding another vet. Although as mentioned above I suppose it's not unlikely they bring him into the lineup full time more slowly

 

[SEALBound]

I think with ASP expected to come over next year they will be looking for a more defensive D if they're adding another vet. Although as mentioned above I suppose it's not unlikely they bring him into the lineup full time more slowly

Fair. Is he going to ready to step in and take on 2nd pairing minutes in the NHL?

 

[Jared Dunn]

Fair. Is he going to ready to step in and take on 2nd pairing minutes in the NHL?

I would guess no but I think he'll be able to run a power play right away and would think they don't really want to acquire someone who is going to eat into his PP time. That is if the plan is NHL, a stopgap could make some sense I guess.

 

[Oddbob]

No interest at all in Karlsson at this point in his career.