Proposal: Penguins off-season moves (Lightning, Devils and Wings)

[Empoleon8771]

Trade 1:

Penguins trade Pickering and St. Louis' 2026 2nd
Lightning trade Howard

Pretty straightforward prospect swap. The Lightning seem extremely thin on LHD prospects in their system, while Pickering fills a pretty obvious need in the organization as a future top-4 LHD. He can likely play in the NHL next year and eventually take over for McDonagh's spot on the 2nd pair. Howard is another good NHL ready prospect that the Penguins likely wouldn't be in a position to get if he was willing to sign with Tampa, one that can likely make it easier for them to move on from Rakell or Rust. The 2nd is to just add more value to Tampa and convince them to take that deal over other offers they'd likely be getting.

Trade 2:

Penguins trade Rakell
Devils trade Mercer

This one feels weird because I don't know who adds on it, but I'll just leave it as straight up with noting that I can see either team having to add here. Mercer has seemingly stagnated with the Devils, with putting up only 33 and 36 points in the past 2 seasons. Fitzgerald said yesterday that the team is going to be making changes to improve this off-season, so I think Mercer sticks out as a guy that could be upgraded on. The Penguins are taking a chance with a younger player while the Devils get the currently better player.

Trade 3:

Penguins trade Karlsson at $5 million
Wings trade Wallinder/Buium and a 2026 2nd

This has the Penguins selling while the Wings trying to make a push to get over the hump and make the playoffs. Wallinder and Buium (curious to hear from Wings fans who they value more) are LHD prospects that will replace Pickering in the system. The Wings get a legit 2nd pair RD to play behind Seider and add another offensive element from their defensemen.

In total, the trades are basically Pickering, Rakell and Karlsson at 50% for Howard, Mercer and Wallinder/Buium.

 

[Forge]

Trade 2:

Penguins trade Rakell
Devils trade Mercer

This one feels weird because I don't know who adds on it, but I'll just leave it as straight up with noting that I can see either team having to add here. Mercer has seemingly stagnated with the Devils, with putting up only 33 and 36 points in the past 2 seasons. Fitzgerald said yesterday that the team is going to be making changes to improve this off-season, so I think Mercer sticks out as a guy that could be upgraded on. The Penguins are taking a chance with a younger player while the Devils get the currently better player.

As a devils fan, I would do this

 

[Rschmitz]

Fair offer for Bolts but you’d still need to convince Howard to sign

 

[Production Line]

Trade 1:

Penguins trade Pickering and St. Louis' 2026 2nd
Lightning trade Howard

Pretty straightforward prospect swap. The Lightning seem extremely thin on LHD prospects in their system, while Pickering fills a pretty obvious need in the organization as a future top-4 LHD. He can likely play in the NHL next year and eventually take over for McDonagh's spot on the 2nd pair. Howard is another good NHL ready prospect that the Penguins likely wouldn't be in a position to get if he was willing to sign with Tampa, one that can likely make it easier for them to move on from Rakell or Rust. The 2nd is to just add more value to Tampa and convince them to take that deal over other offers they'd likely be getting.

Trade 2:

Penguins trade Rakell
Devils trade Mercer

This one feels weird because I don't know who adds on it, but I'll just leave it as straight up with noting that I can see either team having to add here. Mercer has seemingly stagnated with the Devils, with putting up only 33 and 36 points in the past 2 seasons. Fitzgerald said yesterday that the team is going to be making changes to improve this off-season, so I think Mercer sticks out as a guy that could be upgraded on. The Penguins are taking a chance with a younger player while the Devils get the currently better player.

Trade 3:

Penguins trade Karlsson at $5 million
Wings trade Wallinder/Buium and a 2026 2nd

This has the Penguins selling while the Wings trying to make a push to get over the hump and make the playoffs. Wallinder and Buium (curious to hear from Wings fans who they value more) are LHD prospects that will replace Pickering in the system. The Wings get a legit 2nd pair RD to play behind Seider and add another offensive element from their defensemen.

In total, the trades are basically Pickering, Rakell and Karlsson at 50% for Howard, Mercer and Wallinder/Buium.

Detroit says NO THANK YOU !

 

[Power Surge]

I like it. Hopefully Howard does though.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Fair offer for Bolts but you’d still need to convince Howard to sign

Yeah that offer is assuming Howard would be willing to sign. I don't really know what his motivation is so I'm just assuming he would sign for the offer.

 

[SEALBound]

I would generally be on board with this but I would need #3 to happen before #1. As far as defensive prospects go, Pickering is about it until we see how a few others progress. I'd want to be sure that if we are going through a major series of trades with nearly all of our tradable assets, I want to make sure we 100% get a good defensive prospect back before moving what few we have.

Mercer for Rakell is a major "win now" move for NJD but with their core being in the early/mid 20s, I'm not sure they do it. That said, I think Mercer is riding a draft pedigree and a "potential" value that I'm not sure will be realized. I have doubts that he's suddenly going to "re-break out" and double his production. I think that 57pt season is likely the height with that 40-50pt but with 20g is where I would be valuing him at as a safer bet for the future.

 

[Vergil]

Rakell for Mercer seems to make a lot of sense. Think Mercer would do well with a change of scenery. Whereas I think Rakell could do really well with Bratt and Jack.

 

[vokiel]

Not sure:
- Turning Rakell into Mercer, I'd rather have Rakell and any other cheaper rookie C
- I don't think you get Burium, regardless of what's being offered, Karlsson at half or not. It isn't like the Wild is a contender atm.

Edit: even for Shai, same logic, don't think Wings value Karlsson at 35, 36...

 

[Empoleon8771]

I would generally be on board with this but I would need #3 to happen before #1. As far as defensive prospects go, Pickering is about it until we see how a few others progress. I'd want to be sure that if we are going through a major series of trades with nearly all of our tradable assets, I want to make sure we 100% get a good defensive prospect back before moving what few we have.

Mercer for Rakell is a major "win now" move for NJD but with their core being in the early/mid 20s, I'm not sure they do it. That said, I think Mercer is riding a draft pedigree and a "potential" value that I'm not sure will be realized. I have doubts that he's suddenly going to "re-break out" and double his production. I think that 57pt season is likely the height with that 40-50pt but with 20g is where I would be valuing him at as a safer bet for the future.

I think a part of doing Pickering in the Howard deal and then trading for Willander/Buium is that Pickering wasn't one of Dubas' guys that he drafted or added to the system, and he was pretty critical of Pickering at the end of season press conference. I think the idea of trading Pickering and then trading for someone like Willander is Dubas bringing in "his guy" rather than just inheriting what Hextall left him.

I think Pickering is a bit better of a prospect than Willander or Buium, but the difference seems pretty small overall. I also think you can draft Aitcheson at #11 to add another LHD prospect to the system, since you won't need to draft another winger with trading for Howard.

 

[Jared Grayden]

I'd agree with @SEALBound on Mercer. Limited interest so unless Jersey is adding at least a 2nd or solid prospect no thanks. I don't see him as more than a depth forward.

 

[PullHard]

No interest in rostering Karlsson at this point in his career

 

[Empoleon8771]

Not sure:
- Turning Rakell into Mercer, I'd rather have Rakell and any other cheaper rookie C
- I don't think you get Burium, regardless of what's being offered, Karlsson at half or not. It isn't like the Wild is a contender atm.

This isn't the top prospect Buium, it's his brother Shai Buium that the Red Wings have. He was a 2nd rounder in 2021 and is also a LHD prospect.

I'd agree with @SEALBound on Mercer. Limited interest so unless Jersey is adding at least a 2nd or solid prospect no thanks. I don't see him as more than a depth forward.

I think New Jersey would add slightly but I don't know that a 2nd would be the add. Even with Mercer's stagnation, he's still pretty young and has shown to be an effective middle-6 forward in the NHL so far. I'm not sure you're doing that much better considering the age difference between them.

Maybe like Mercer and a 3rd for Rakell or something like that, but I think the add would be fairly minimal.

 

[vokiel]

This isn't the top prospect Buium, it's his brother Shai Buium that the Red Wings have. He was a 2nd rounder in 2021 and is also a LHD prospect.

Yep I confused the 2, but it's the same problem, Karlsson is heading to 35, 36. I think it's the kind of trade you do with contenders more than mix or building clubs.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Gonna have to report you for the Penguins-Devils trade proposal as it is way too in the reasonable range to cause sufficient rage on these boards. This place has a reputation to protect after all

Devils haven't exactly always connected when they acquire guys in their 30s but this is a move is plausible

 

[Jared Grayden]

I think New Jersey would add slightly but I don't know that a 2nd would be the add. Even with Mercer's stagnation, he's still pretty young and has shown to be an effective middle-6 forward in the NHL so far. I'm not sure you're doing that much better considering the age difference between them.

Maybe like Mercer and a 3rd for Rakell or something like that, but I think the add would be fairly minimal.

I think the value is fair especially for Jersey just not the fit. Im only interested in higher upside options and I don't view Mercer as showing much promising upside so I'd prefer a Rakell trade for futures rather than a deal around Mercer. Dubas can sign a UFA geezer that can provide what Mercer has the last several years. Cap space won't be an issue in the near term.

 

[chethejet]

Howard is not signing with the Bolts. Not sure why teams give up assets of that caliber. No way Rakell with that cheap contract, falling salary and production is move for a hopeful winger who isn't Mr. upside here. Rakell brings in more and Dubas knows that. He isn't moving Rakell for giggles. Karlsson as a RH puck moving D with two years left is in demand here. He will bring back nice assets.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Mercer with Hughes in the lineup has him as the 3c/3rd liner in some fashion. So I don't know if he's a comparable to Rakell no matter the age difference.

Selling low is Mercer
Selling high is Rakell

Of course they would do that trade off. Ist liner for a 3rd liner..

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Trade 1:

Penguins trade Pickering and St. Louis' 2026 2nd
Lightning trade Howard

Pretty straightforward prospect swap. The Lightning seem extremely thin on LHD prospects in their system, while Pickering fills a pretty obvious need in the organization as a future top-4 LHD. He can likely play in the NHL next year and eventually take over for McDonagh's spot on the 2nd pair. Howard is another good NHL ready prospect that the Penguins likely wouldn't be in a position to get if he was willing to sign with Tampa, one that can likely make it easier for them to move on from Rakell or Rust. The 2nd is to just add more value to Tampa and convince them to take that deal over other offers they'd likely be getting.

Trade 2:

Penguins trade Rakell
Devils trade Mercer

This one feels weird because I don't know who adds on it, but I'll just leave it as straight up with noting that I can see either team having to add here. Mercer has seemingly stagnated with the Devils, with putting up only 33 and 36 points in the past 2 seasons. Fitzgerald said yesterday that the team is going to be making changes to improve this off-season, so I think Mercer sticks out as a guy that could be upgraded on. The Penguins are taking a chance with a younger player while the Devils get the currently better player.

Trade 3:

Penguins trade Karlsson at $5 million
Wings trade Wallinder/Buium and a 2026 2nd

This has the Penguins selling while the Wings trying to make a push to get over the hump and make the playoffs. Wallinder and Buium (curious to hear from Wings fans who they value more) are LHD prospects that will replace Pickering in the system. The Wings get a legit 2nd pair RD to play behind Seider and add another offensive element from their defensemen.

In total, the trades are basically Pickering, Rakell and Karlsson at 50% for Howard, Mercer and Wallinder/Buium.

Horrible deals all around for the Penguins. Hopefully Dubas is a better GM.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Mercer with Hughes in the lineup has him as the 3c/3rd liner in some fashion. So I don't know if he's a comparable to Rakell no matter the age difference.

Selling low is Mercer
Selling high is Rakell

Of course they would do that trade off. Ist liner for a 3rd liner..

They do that because they get better now. The Penguins do that because Mercer's potential for the Penguins, both in terms of long-term impact and potential trade return, are higher than they are for Rakell. If Mercer returns to form while playing in the Penguins top-6, he's going to have enormous value as a 24 year old top-6 winger.

 

[SEALBound]

This Leafs team is not giving up a 3 goal lead. If anything, they will make the lead bigger. Like some of us have been saying, this isn't the team everyone remembers.

I think a part of doing Pickering in the Howard deal and then trading for Willander/Buium is that Pickering wasn't one of Dubas' guys that he drafted or added to the system, and he was pretty critical of Pickering at the end of season press conference. I think the idea of trading Pickering and then trading for someone like Willander is Dubas bringing in "his guy" rather than just inheriting what Hextall left him.

I think Pickering is a bit better of a prospect than Willander or Buium, but the difference seems pretty small overall. I also think you can draft Aitcheson at #11 to add another LHD prospect to the system, since you won't need to draft another winger with trading for Howard.

I'm not arguing who is better or whether or not he can/should be traded, it's more of being risk-averse in the process for me. If you trade Pickering and get Howard and then can't trade EK and get a good defensive prospect, that puts us in a rough position. I want at least one good, young defenseman for the upcoming season. If this all happens in unison, great, there's no issue.

And yeah, hard to say what Pickering means to Dubas. Those post season comments may be him being sour on him or just a way to push him. To get Howard back though, yeah, he's available.

I'd agree with @SEALBound on Mercer. Limited interest so unless Jersey is adding at least a 2nd or solid prospect no thanks. I don't see him as more than a depth forward.

I don't think the gap is that great. I think it's close with Mercer being 24, signed at $5mil, and then being a RFA.

That said, if there are people that think Mercer is worth more, I point out Rakell's $5mil x 3yr deal which, given the fact he can be a 30/30 or 35/35 guy, it's a hell of a value contract with the cap going up.

No interest in rostering Karlsson at this point in his career

Are you looking at actual game play ability or merely at age because it seems like the latter. Even at 35, he's still a very high end PMD. Seems like an ideal 2RD to put out after Seider. Pair him with Edvinsson and I think you have a very effect pairing at both ends.

Especially at the proposed cost.

 

[Ugene Magic]

They do that because they get better now. The Penguins do that because Mercer's potential for the Penguins, both in terms of long-term impact and potential trade return, are higher than they are for Rakell. If Mercer returns to form while playing in the Penguins top-6, he's going to have enormous value as a 24 year old top-6 winger.

And if he doesn't?

You turned a 1st line winger with higher value now, who fits the Pens, into a questionable asset they intern have to take the hit on.

Mercer and a 3rd isn't exactly selling high on Rakell.

I don't think the team is thinking it like you are. Blow them away, force them to not say no.

 

[dgibb10]

I'm not arguing who is better or whether or not he can/should be traded, it's more of being risk-averse in the process for me. If you trade Pickering and get Howard and then can't trade EK and get a good defensive prospect, that puts us in a rough position. I want at least one good, young defenseman for the upcoming season. If this all happens in unison, great, there's no issue.

And yeah, hard to say what Pickering means to Dubas. Those post season comments may be him being sour on him or just a way to push him. To get Howard back though, yeah, he's available.

I don't think the gap is that great. I think it's close with Mercer being 24, signed at $5mil, and then being a RFA.

That said, if there are people that think Mercer is worth more, I point out Rakell's $5mil x 3yr deal which, given the fact he can be a 30/30 or 35/35 guy, it's a hell of a value contract with the cap going up.

Are you looking at actual game play ability or merely at age because it seems like the latter. Even at 35, he's still a very high end PMD. Seems like an ideal 2RD to put out after Seider. Pair him with Edvinsson and I think you have a very effect pairing at both ends.

Especially at the proposed cost.

a 35/35 guy at 19+ minutes a night and PP1 time, shooting 17.2% (he shot 9.2% in the 6 years prior, a big red flag to me)

NJD does not need Rakell's PP contributions. There are teams that do (and Rakell will have more value to said teams), but I think we can both agree NJDs 28+% PP does not, correct? Mercer being a key member of our elite PK however is something we need. So just from a starting point we downgrade on special teams with this trade.

So we need to look at 5v5.

I am also a firm believer of the diminishing returns you get investing in the 3rd best guy on a line, which Rakell would be.

In Pitt he was the 2nd guy on the line alongside crosby this year, and produced very well
But, if you look back before, when Guentzel was still there and he was not said number 2, the production was a LOT lower.

To a team looking for a wingman for one of their top Cs, I think Rakell works great. For a team looking for a complimentary 3rd guy, I think the value is a lot less.

To summarize, I'd pass, and this is nothing against Rakell as a player, but I just think paying PP1 wingman prices for a guy who you will use as a PP2 complimentary piece doesn't make sense

 

[dgibb10]

Rakell for Mercer seems to make a lot of sense. Think Mercer would do well with a change of scenery. Whereas I think Rakell could do really well with Bratt and Jack.

Rakell was great as the number 2 with crosby this year

When Guentzel was still around and he was the number 3 on the line the results were much worse. He'd be the number 3 again with Bratt and Jack

 

[dgibb10]

As a devils fan, I would do this

I continue to harp on the differences between a number 2 and number 3 on a line, but I think Rakell is a perfect example of this.

When he was the number 3 on the line with Crosby and Guentzel, his production was okay, nothing special.

It was only when he was the wingman to crosby (and his shooting % went to 17% after shooting 9% for the previous 6 years) that his production.

NJD already has the wingmen in Bratt and Meier, so Rakell would be back to the 3rd guy role.