I was blown away by how good Kap looked, but for now I'd rank the more proven players ahead him. Rust has been awesome in the past, but I agree that he's been worse lately. For me Kap and Rust are very close ATM and next season will determine a lot for their long-term future with the team.
Guentzel I'd put on a whole different tier as of now. He struggled last season, but was still ppg. Past seasons he has shown that he's not just a passenger next to Sid. He was bad in the playoffs, but so was most of our roster.
As for the PP usage, Kap doesn't really strike me as a PP guy. His style is more straightforward and off the rush. Ironically I think our PP1 needs some of that.
Apologies for the length, but I'm trying to make higher effort posts more frequently.
Yeah it all comes down to how much weight people on this topic attribute to seasons prior to last year. I'm looking at it from a perspective of what I expect we'll get from them in 2021-22, since the future is the only thing that matters now.
Rust's 5v5 P60 fluctuated dramatically from 2019-20 to 2021. From 2.55 to 1.51. So I think what we'll get is something in the middle. Maybe like 1.80. An improvement, but not a dramatic one.
And I fully expect Kap to exceed 2.00 again, despite playing with weaker linemates. I say this because I expect Malkin to miss close to 40 games, which means it will be Carter and Zucker..and 3rd liners mixed in depending on injury. Think it's clear that Sully's not disbanding L1.
So my point is that I feel Kap is the superior 5v5 player at this time and will continue to be. The way his game works supports the idea of some sustainability, since he drives his lines. Separation speed is an enormous asset in the modern league. It's not like Rust isn't fast himself, but Kap uses it to greater effect from what I'm seeing.
So that leaves the other situations to compare. Kap is highly regarded among Leafs fans for his PK ability. He probably beats Rust at that, but it's hard to compare since Sullivan refuses to use him on ours. IMO a big mistake last year. Our PK finished 27th and Kap's minutes were too low for someone so young and playing so well.
Then we have the PP. I'm not at all enamored with Rust's play there. His playmaking in stagnant situations is barely passable. He almost never one-times pucks on the left wall, which is what he should be doing since he's a right shot. This limits our options and makes us more predictable. His strength on that unit is he has some chemistry with Jake on making the final touches in tight leading to goals. But apart from that, I don't feel he's good enough at it to warrant staying there.
I think Kap can surprise a lot of the fan base with his PP ability. I'm aware that his (very limited) PP1 usage didn't go swimmingly, but I do attribute a lot of that to obvious nerves. That was his first ever opportunity in that role, and he was playing with some greats. In Toronto they never let him up there with the big boys. It could be a very different story this year.
I strongly disagree with the notion that his playmaking can only work on the rush. In fact I consider him to have been our 2nd best Forward (Malkin #1) passer at 5v5 last year, which is what impressed me the most. It was consistent and measured...on all types of plays. Definitely saw no signs of impatience or poor judgment. Normally I'd say Sid but he was getting picked off a lot last year.
Kap's weakness is elsewhere for me. He has a tendency to lose the puck after he turns on the afterburners and does sudden stops. He can't do what McDavid does at warp speed with his hands. So if he's relied upon to make zone entries with his speed, there's the danger that he'll turn it over and we get a zone clearance against us.
Otherwise I see no issue. His slapshot is underrated and his wrist shot is harder and more accurate than Rust's. Moreover he actually likes shooting when the opportunity is there, which is what we have needed on that left wall since Kessel left. And just like Kessel I could easily envision situations where he does small loops to buy time, penetrates the middle ice and lasers a dangerous wrister. This is something Rust doesn't do with any kind of regularity. He will defer unless it's a slam dunk situation where he has to shoot. It's a problem that I can't see changing.
Will be very interesting to see how he follows up a season like he just had.
