Peak window for contending?

[ricky0034]

I keep seeing you talk about “starting from scratch” yet our most important pieces are all 21 or younger. The only difference-maker doing anything on this roster who isn’t essentially a child, the only guy worth any assets, is Larkin. Literally the difference between “starting over” and not is…Larkin. That’s it. You’re making this out to be some grand solution to the rebuild, without even considering that if Edvinsson and Kasper DO hit their marks, and we have already moved on from Larkin, we’re back at square one, or worse - a team too good on the back end to lose but no offensive depth up front to win. Congrats. You’ve made us the Predators, with all their playoff glory.

You don’t hit rebuild on the rebuild when 80% of your most important assets are kids, 40% of which haven’t made the NHL yet. The rebuild hinges on what Edvinsson and Kasper become yet you want to proclaim the rebuild a bust without having seen anything from them. Nonsense. Put the magic 8 ball away.

this thread is about when we think the team will contend and this team just flat out doesn't have the offensive talent to contend and won't draft high enough to acquire it, they've been on this path for a while now and I think it's been fairly set in stone since last offseason

i'm not saying that the Wings should "start from scratch" right now and trade Seider and Edvinsson and such but I think they'll amble around for the next decade or so adding free agents and such, making some trades etc and they'll probably even make the Playoffs at some point as a mid to late seed for a bit but I wouldn't call that contending and I don't think they ever contend on the path they're on until they eventually end up starting over from scratch a decade down the line

maybe others think Larkin, Raymond, Kasper, and some mid firsts and free agent/trade acquisitions are enough to end up getting to being a contender and that's fine if you feel that way but I flat out don't agree

 

[ZDH]

Probably Mo/Edvinsson/Kasper primes

 

[Oddbob]

To me it is too hard to say right now.

-We need to see if Raymond is the real deal and this season is just a sophomore thing. His play greatly impacts where we are as a team.
-Haven't seen Ed up with the team, and despite everyone saying he is a lock to be great on this forum, we don't know. Lots of great skill players completely bombed in the NHL that were just as sure a thing as Ed.
-D in general. Unless we get some lower picks actually making it, we have no future depth aside from Seider, Ed and AlJo from younger guys. Reality is, most of the guys currently not in the NHL either aren't going to make it, or just be ok journeymen types. That is why I don't get the comments that we don't need any LHD and such, as right now, we have Walman and Maatta as for sure NHL guys and only hopefuls in ED and AlJo.
-Kasper absolutely needs to be what we all hope he is, because if not, I think barring Yzerman going trade route we are in serious trouble in our rebuild, and it will be 5 years before we even start to have a shot.

The biggest one, and something out of our control or any teams control is we need later picks to become prominent players like Steve got with Point, Kucherov and such as without that luck or fortune we are staying in the bottom for a long time. Been a long time for the Detroit Red Wings to have anyone outside the 2nd round becoming an actual really good guy to build around.

I think that is why Steve is preaching patience so much, as without some later rounds fortune we don't look that great on paper unless 3 or 4 of our current non NHL crop put it top shelf.

 

[Oddbob]

I'll expand more on my thoughts in a bit, but this is interesting. After letting the dust from the deadline settle in my head over the weekend, I believe the picture has become more clear, not less. But that's just my take.


We totally are. And that's what I'm interested in; where the fanbase, or at least this forum, believes we are in the process. Not so much trying to collectively figure it out. Maybe I should have added an option for "I have no idea"

To me the reason is it more murky is losing Bert and Hronek who despite various complaints are legit good NHL players in younger ages and we lost both and didn't replace them. Even if Ed is ready next year, that would only put us somewhat even to where we were this year as we are just replacing one defender instead of adding to him. Same with Bert, even if Kasper makes it, that isn't adding to the team in place of Bert it is just keeping it even player wise and Kasper and Ed would still be rookies anyhow, so they will have good and bad moments and learning time.

I think the outlook for this upcoming season we are worse overall as a team. Not on Yzerman for trading Bert, he wasn't coming back anyhow, just more the point of right now we don't have a NHL player his level replacing him, and the UFA market for lack of a better word looks really crappy in all fairness. More Copp level guys is both not exciting and I don't want us signing players to that level for 5 years.

Now we can be excited to lose, Ned, Hagg, Lindstrom and Oesterle, but the UFA market again has only that level of players available, so great chance we will just be getting similar level players that we will hate on.

I really am hoping Steve has something bigger up his sleeve as far as actual better end current NHL players being acquired through trade, even if that means trading some of our stockpile of picks and prospects.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I stick by my prediction. The "5-season plan".

The 5-season plan (How we become a contender)

We're not winning the Stanley Cup this season boys. We're not even making the playoffs, realistically. Now the question is; when? When does the rebuild end? Is there a light at the end of the tunnel? I believe that there is. But for a number of reasons, the earliest I see this team...

forums.hfboards.com

What I said:

Season 1 (2022-2023) - Miss playoffs. Draft ~6-11 + additional 1st round pick from selling
Season 2 (2023-2024) - In the Wildcard battle. Draft ~11-17
Season 3 (2024-2025) - Playoff team. Draft 17-20
Season 4 (2025-2026) - Playoff team. Draft 20-25
Season 5 (2026-2027) - Make playoffs as contender.

Season 1 is panning out as predicted.

2023 TDL:
Trade Tyler Bertuzzi for ~1st round pick
Trade Olli Määttä for ~2nd round pick

Hronek was a surprise trade but gave us the 2023 draft assets.
Bertuzzi trade gave us additional assets for the future but I could see that 1st being traded.

Ofc Hronek gone means there's an extra spot to fill on the roster, but I don't think it changes the timeline much.

Realistically Kasper/Raymond/Edvinsson need 2-3 seasons to really hit their stride. And 2-3 seasons of development for the 1st round picks in 2023 to start arriving.
So circa 2026 is when I see this team being ready to contend if all goes to plan.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Everyone generally knows it takes most young players 3 to 4 years of NHL experience to become consistent positive contributors.

So knowing we will draft top 10 this and most likely in 2024 followed by a top 15 pick in 2025, we're not likely even drafting in a low playoff seed till 2026 and again in 2027.

That means its 2028 before we start being realistic contenders(making it past round 1or 2).

Also need to look around our division. Its realistic 4 teams from the Atlantic make the playoffs each of the next 5 years.

I think Boston, Toronto and Tampa for sure do so through 2024(this season and next)

Toronto, Ottawa and Buffalo for sure do so starting in 2025(boston or tampa fall off) but florida is still kicking around.

I think our window starts when tampa, boston and Toronto are all not in the playoff picture, 2027..

It's going to be 5 plus years with this year being one of those five.

 

[Winger98]

this thread is about when we think the team will contend and this team just flat out doesn't have the offensive talent to contend and won't draft high enough to acquire it, they've been on this path for a while now and I think it's been fairly set in stone since last offseason

i'm not saying that the Wings should "start from scratch" right now and trade Seider and Edvinsson and such but I think they'll amble around for the next decade or so adding free agents and such, making some trades etc and they'll probably even make the Playoffs at some point as a mid to late seed for a bit but I wouldn't call that contending and I don't think they ever contend on the path they're on until they eventually end up starting over from scratch a decade down the line

maybe others think Larkin, Raymond, Kasper, and some mid firsts and free agent/trade acquisitions are enough to end up getting to being a contender and that's fine if you feel that way but I flat out don't agree

That's really just playing the odds for what could happen. To contend and win a cup so much has to go right, generally players have to come from relative obscurity to be major contributors... yeah, this stands a fair chance of coming up short regardless. Where would Tampa be if Pointe and Kucherov didn't drastically over perform their draft spots? Or Boston and all of the guys they drafted outside of the 1st who they have leaned on over the years?

Meanwhile, we've seen teams like Edmonton, Buffalo, Ottawa, Arizona, etc. draft high for years and have come away with nothing. Hell, add Toronto to the list just to spite leaf fans.

 

[PelagicJoe]

It really depends on:
1. If Edvinsson turns out as good as the reports were predicting and we end up with two beastly defenders.
2. Kasper becoming an offensive threat.
3. Raymond developing into a consistent, legit scoring/sniping winger.
4. The draft in general. That's the only place we are getting talent from barring more fleece jobs from #19. Big FA names aren't coming here. Heck, I was surprised we got Perron, and he isn't a huge name compared to Matthews, Stamkos, etc.

 

[Run the Jewels]

It really depends on:
1. If Edvinsson turns out as good as the reports were predicting and we end up with two beastly defenders.
2. Kasper becoming an offensive threat.
3. Raymond developing into a consistent, legit scoring/sniping winger.
4. The draft in general. That's the only place we are getting talent from barring more fleece jobs from #19. Big FA names aren't coming here. Heck, I was surprised we got Perron, and he isn't a huge name compared to Matthews, Stamkos, etc.

I do think we will be able to get a big time UFA to address a need once it is clear we are becoming a contender. Yzerman has a ton of clout in this league but I agree not many players are going to want to come to play on a rebuilding team, at least not truly elite guys in the prime. But I like our odds once we have a competitive team built around really good players.

 

[Frk It]

this thread is about when we think the team will contend and this team just flat out doesn't have the offensive talent to contend and won't draft high enough to acquire it, they've been on this path for a while now and I think it's been fairly set in stone since last offseason

i'm not saying that the Wings should "start from scratch" right now and trade Seider and Edvinsson and such but I think they'll amble around for the next decade or so adding free agents and such, making some trades etc and they'll probably even make the Playoffs at some point as a mid to late seed for a bit but I wouldn't call that contending and I don't think they ever contend on the path they're on until they eventually end up starting over from scratch a decade down the line

maybe others think Larkin, Raymond, Kasper, and some mid firsts and free agent/trade acquisitions are enough to end up getting to being a contender and that's fine if you feel that way but I flat out don't agree

How can we know if we have enough when we have two top 10 picks who haven't even played a game in the NHL yet? Everyone is saying we need more high picks. We literally have high picks who haven't even played a second in the NHL yet.

The range of outcomes of what Edvinsson will be in the NHL is massive. Same thing with Willander. Same thing with Kasper. Heck even Seider and Raymond are still far from finished products.

If you want to just err on the side of being pessimistic, fine. I have said for years re-building in this landscape, however you want to approach it, the most likely scenario is you end up in purgatory. I believe that is true even if we went the super aggressive tank route people clamor for. But I don't get how we can act like we know what we will have when all the things are yet to happen still.

 

[jaster]

Ok, here's my take. 5-7 years. And that became a lot more clear to me this past week. Some major variables:


1. Hronek.

Some comments I've seen have said trading him pushes back the timeline. And I can see how it feels that way. But to me it became clear that some people (and I'll count myself in this) had a slightly different timeline than Yzerman. It's not that trading Hronek pushed back the timeline, it's that it fit the timeline, and the timeline has become more clear. I previously felt like 3-5 years was a good guess for when this team hits its stride, but if that were the case, you don't trade Hronek. 5-7 years? Trading Hronek makes a lot more sense. You're not feeling the pain of no Hronek in 5-7 years nearly as much as 3-5 years from now.


2. Yzerplan.

Yzerman likes to come off sounding a bit vague, like, "there's all these unknowns, we're just going to try to keep improving," as if he's half winging it. BS. He has a plan. He always has a plan. Steve Yzerman doesn't take a dump, son, without a plan. He's certainly going to leave himself room to adjust as necessary, but he has targets, and he's going to try to hit them. Which leads to #3....


3. Prospects.

A lot of people in this thread are saying "I need to see how X, Y, and Z develop first" and "we need to see how X, Y, and Z turn out." Wellllll, yeah. That's true. But that factor does not currently have any impact on the plan, or Yzerman's targets in terms of timeline. Down the road, if our young guys collectively develop significantly better or worse than expected, yeah, that's where Yzerman would adjust. But right now, given the ages of our captain, our young budding stars, our best prospects, and the draft picks we're collecting, that all points to about 5-7 years down the road, for when Detroit is trying to peak. Larkin's past his prime at that point, but the next oldest part of what should be the core is right in it, with another group just starting to hit it.


4. Competition.

An overlooked variable. Our competition, primarily in the Atlantic. Yzerman himself has said it, that Ottawa and Buffalo are ahead of Detroit in their rebuilding process. Detroit is setting itself up for failure trying to peak on the exact same timeline, or at least making it harder on themselves. Yes, lots of things can change in 3, 5, 7 years, but again, you have to work with what you know today. And today? The East is strong, the Atlantic is stacked, lots of talent has been added. Detroit basically needs to wait some of that out, wait for some of that talent to age and/or become too expensive and go elsewhere. The division and conference should, theoretically, be a softer target in 5-7 years compared to, say, 3-5 years.

 

[StargateSG1]

Ok, here's my take. 5-7 years. And that became a lot more clear to me this past week. Some major variables:


1. Hronek.

Some comments I've seen have said trading him pushes back the timeline. And I can see how it feels that way. But to me it became clear that some people (and I'll count myself in this) had a slightly different timeline than Yzerman. It's not that trading Hronek pushed back the timeline, it's that it fit the timeline, and the timeline has become more clear. I previously felt like 3-5 years was a good guess for when this team hits its stride, but if that were the case, you don't trade Hronek. 5-7 years? Trading Hronek makes a lot more sense. You're not feeling the pain of no Hronek in 5-7 years nearly as much as 3-5 years from now.


2. Yzerplan.

Yzerman likes to come off sounding a bit vague, like, "there's all these unknowns, we're just going to try to keep improving," as if he's half winging it. BS. He has a plan. He always has a plan. Steve Yzerman doesn't take a dump, son, without a plan. He's certainly going to leave himself room to adjust as necessary, but he has targets, and he's going to try to hit them. Which leads to #3....


3. Prospects.

A lot of people in this thread are saying "I need to see how X, Y, and Z develop first" and "we need to see how X, Y, and Z turn out." Wellllll, yeah. That's true. But that factor does not currently have any impact on the plan, or Yzerman's targets in terms of timeline. Down the road, if our young guys collectively develop significantly better or worse than expected, yeah, that's where Yzerman would adjust. But right now, given the ages of our captain, our young budding stars, our best prospects, and the draft picks we're collecting, that all points to about 5-7 years down the road, for when Detroit is trying to peak. Larkin's past his prime at that point, but the next oldest part of what should be the core is right in it, with another group just starting to hit it.


4. Competition.

An overlooked variable. Our competition, primarily in the Atlantic. Yzerman himself has said it, that Ottawa and Buffalo are ahead of Detroit in their rebuilding process. Detroit is setting itself up for failure trying to peak on the exact same timeline, or at least making it harder on themselves. Yes, lots of things can change in 3, 5, 7 years, but again, you have to work with what you know today. And today? The East is strong, the Atlantic is stacked, lots of talent has been added. Detroit basically needs to wait some of that out, wait for some of that talent to age and/or become too expensive and go elsewhere. The division and conference should, theoretically, be a softer target in 5-7 years compared to, say, 3-5 years.

I said 4-6, but it's pretty much the same as 5-7.
Agreed, it gives the current prospects and those drafted in the next few drafts time to develop, while boston, caps, pens, tampa and possibly others regress.

 

[Frk It]

3. Prospects.

A lot of people in this thread are saying "I need to see how X, Y, and Z develop first" and "we need to see how X, Y, and Z turn out." Wellllll, yeah. That's true. But that factor does not currently have any impact on the plan, or Yzerman's targets in terms of timeline. Down the road, if our young guys collectively develop significantly better or worse than expected, yeah, that's where Yzerman would adjust. But right now, given the ages of our captain, our young budding stars, our best prospects, and the draft picks we're collecting, that all points to about 5-7 years down the road, for when Detroit is trying to peak. Larkin's past his prime at that point, but the next oldest part of what should be the core is right in it, with another group just starting to hit it.

How does it not have an impact on the plan?

If Edvinsson/Kasper/Raymond/Seider/others exceed expectations, we will arrive sooner than 5-7 years and rise out of the spot we are now.

If they reach a level less than expected, the re-build will have to be extended and we might not re-build at all.

It literally will make or break the re-build as far as I am concerned.... Or are you expecting some serious waves to be made via free agency/trades?

 

[jaster]

How does it not have an impact on the plan?

If Edvinsson/Kasper/Raymond/Seider/others exceed expectations, we will arrive sooner than 5-7 years and rise out of the spot we are now.

If they reach a level less than expected, the re-build will have to be extended and we might not re-build at all.

It literally will make or break the re-build as far as I am concerned.... Or are you expecting some serious waves to be made via free agency/trades?

It has no impact on the plan currently. How could it? The ship can only go in one direction at any moment in time. All Yzerman can do in terms of how our prospects turn out is rate them all now, and then predict how they collectively turn out in terms of impact as best he can. Then base the plan on that, while giving himself outs for scenarios where they collectively overperform or underperform. If he has to adjust down the line, I'm sure he will, but since he can't predict the future, he has to steer the ship based on the most likely outcome of our prospect pool. Luckily, the law of large numbers dictates that the prospect pool as a whole is a safer bet to predict than any individual prospect. There is some regression toward the mean baked in to the larger sample size.

The prospects are something he will continuously monitor of course. But since any notable changes in their collective trajectory at any single point in time will be small (unless someone goes swimming and gets their leg bit off by a shark), his adjustments to the plan can be small as well. I'm just saying, the fact that extreme outcomes are possible and should be considered, they have no bearing on where Yzerman is aiming the ship today.

 

[Retire91]

The people voting that we will have a 3 year window of "Contending" in the next 4 years. I guess you are entitled to your oppinion even when its wrong.

Also Yzerman said he was not going to be a buyer for any reason this season. It's not GM induced tanking, its just using non core access to obtain resources to get core assets. MOD. You had your win until you lose at all costs era. We would appreciate the opportunity to have ours.

 

[jaster]

It's not GM induced tanking, its just using non core access to obtain resources to get core assets.

It's both. If you're uncomfortable with the word "tanking," fine, call it "making the team worse and gaining better draft position".... in addition to picking up additional picks.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

With this trade deadline past us, the surprising departure of Hronek, the team's recent left-hand turn from fighting for a playoff spot to GM-induced tanking.... I wanted to conduct a poll.

Here's what you're voting on:

When is the peak, 3-year window for this team trying to contend? Maybe they never get there. Maybe they have an amazing 5 or 6 year run. But right now, today, what is your guess for when Yzerman has this team at the top of their game, so to speak? In the foreseeable future, what 3-year span will be their best?

2-4 years after the Wings draft or acquire a #1C. Assuming the defenseman come somewhat close to meeting their hype.

 

[SirloinUB]

2-4 years after the Wings draft or acquire a #1C. Assuming the defenseman come somewhat close to meeting their hype.

NHL: Marshall - Dylan Larkin and the concept of '200-foot hockey'

McKeen's Jesse Marshall takes a deep look at the Detroit Red Wings captain, Dylan Larkin who recently signed an eight-year, $69.6 million contract extension that will carry an $8.7 million cap hit per season.

www.mckeenshockey.com

 

[odin1981]

It largely depends but I would say that when the team is assembled to contend it would be around a 5-8 year window. Granted if we win Bedard or Fantinelli that would change things to like a 9 to 12 year window once him and Kasper become our top 6 centers.