Peak window for contending?

[jaster]

With this trade deadline past us, the surprising departure of Hronek, the team's recent left-hand turn from fighting for a playoff spot to GM-induced tanking.... I wanted to conduct a poll.

Here's what you're voting on:

When is the peak, 3-year window for this team trying to contend? Maybe they never get there. Maybe they have an amazing 5 or 6 year run. But right now, today, what is your guess for when Yzerman has this team at the top of their game, so to speak? In the foreseeable future, what 3-year span will be their best?

Click to read more...

 

[norrisnick]

During Ed and Kasper's ELCs.

 

[Frk It]

Until I see Raymond/Seider in their repsective primes and what the continued development of Kasper/Edvinsson look like... I really just don't know.

Prior to this TDL, I was thinking the clear goal for the 23/24 season was playoffs and we were close to a playoff team. Now that picture is just a lot less clear. Who will we bring in via free agency/trades? We have assets at our disposal.

So I am moreso thinking 24/25 will be the season we can expect playoffs, and then based on how that season goes, I would hope we are at least a playoff team moving forward.

But honestly everything is so fluid right now, it is hard to say. We are pretty much just guessing.

 

[jaster]

Prior to this TDL, I was thinking the clear goal for the 23/24 season was playoffs and we were close to a playoff team. Now that picture is just a lot less clear.

I'll expand more on my thoughts in a bit, but this is interesting. After letting the dust from the deadline settle in my head over the weekend, I believe the picture has become more clear, not less. But that's just my take.

But honestly everything is so fluid right now, it is hard to say. We are pretty much just guessing.

We totally are. And that's what I'm interested in; where the fanbase, or at least this forum, believes we are in the process. Not so much trying to collectively figure it out. Maybe I should have added an option for "I have no idea"

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I picked 5-7 but I think it would be better in years 4 to 8. Mo is a legit piece to build a team around. I think Raymond is a very good player but I'm not sure if he's someone to build around just yet.

By this time hopefully Larkin ends up as this team's "Landeskog". He would still be the captain but would hopefully be the 4th or 5th best player on the team.

 

[Frk It]

I'll expand more on my thoughts in a bit, but this is interesting. After letting the dust from the deadline settle in my head over the weekend, I believe the picture has become more clear, not less. But that's just my take.


We totally are. And that's what I'm interested in; where the fanbase, or at least this forum, believes we are in the process. Not so much trying to collectively figure it out. Maybe I should have added an option for "I have no idea"

We had a more assembled team. Now we have a less assembled team but more liquid assets.

Yzerman made it clear what he thinks, but in doing so, he converted known assets into liquid assets (cap space/draft picks).

So until that cap space/draft picks gets converted into known assets... or until I see what Seider/Raymond look like in year 3.... or until I see what Edvinsson/Kasper look like against NHL players... I just have more questions than answers right now. But that's just my take on things.

And to expand on that last part, I am expecting a jump from Raymond next year in year 3.

 

[Run the Jewels]

If it's going to happen it's going to happen in 3-5 years. That will have given Yzerman 6-8 years to dig out of the crater and build out an entire roster and prospect pool. The NHL lottery certainly did him no favors but perhaps we can win with 3 Larkin level centers in Larkin (obvi), Kasper and whomever they take in the upcoming draft.

 

[The Real Pastafarian]

This is an interesting question, and I look forward to reading answers from people more knowledgeable about hockey than am I (pretty much everyone here.)

I wanted to pick 3 to 5 but 4 to 6 seems more plausible to me.

Looking ahead 5 years:

Forwards:

Larkin will be 33, still serviceable, post-prime but still effective, I think.

Rassmussen (29 years old), Berggren (28) and Veleno (28) will be in their late-primes. Soderblom will be 26, and all of our young forward prospects (Kasper, Buchelnikov, Mazur, Nilson, maybe a couple of others will make it too) will be in their primes by then.

And the two centers we'll draft in the first round this year will be 23 years old. And the forward we draft next year in the first will be 22.

Defensemen:

Maata will be 34, maybe still effective; Walman, 32; Seider will be 27 and in his prime as a d-man. And in 5 years Edvinsson and Wallinder will be up and in their young prime; as will the best of Albert Johannson, Buium, or Sebrango. And the d-man we draft in the second this year will be 23.

Husso will be 30, Cossa 25, both in their primes for goalies.

I think we'll start making the playoffs in a couple of years, say, 25-26 season -- and we'll see incremental improvements in 23-24 from this year, and 24-25 from that year. We'll win the cup in 2027-2028.

In future years our draft position won't be as good as it is this year. That's why I didn't choose 5-7 or 6-8 for our peak -- Larkin and Walman will be too old, and new guys we add in the 2024 and 2025 drafts will have third-line ceilings.

 

[AlwaysSunnyInDetroit]

*if* edvinsson, kasper and cossa hit and when they become meaningful contributors, and *if* yzerman uses both of our firsts this year and *if* both of them hit and when they become meaningful contributors, I think this team will be major contenders for longer than a 3 year window. How long will that take? If our 23 picks spend a year in the minors, 24-25 freshman year, 25-26 sophomore slump, 26-27 will be the first year of serious contender status.

Larkin will be 30 at the start of the season and should hopefully still be effective
Seider will be 25 and firmly in his prime
Raymond will be 24 and firmly in his prime
Edvinsson will be 23 and either will have had or have his breakout this seaon
Kasper will be 22 and should have his breakout season
Cossa will be 23 and hopefully will have established himself as a reliable backup and hopefully challenge for the starter role this season
2 of Moore/Michkov/Smith/Benson/Sale/Dvorsky/Christall/Leonard/Reinbacher/Yager/Heidt/Ritchie will be 21 or 22 and hopefully breakout after their sophomore slump season
Rasmussen/Berggren/Wallinder/Johansson/Soderblom/Zadina will all be in their prime and be meaningful contributors in secondary roles
CHIAROT'S CONTRACT WILL BE OFF THE BOOKS

This could be our roster for the first game of the playoffs:

Berggren - Kasper - Raymond
Rasmussen - Moore - Soderblom
Copp - Larkin - Zadina
Mazur - Veleno - UFA (24 1st?)

Wallinder - Seider
Edvinsson - Reinbacher
Johansson - UFA (24 1st?)

Cossa
Husso/UFA

 

[Winger98]

I wanted to say 4-to-6 but 5-to-7 seems like a safer bet to me. I think we make the playoffs at least a couple of times before that but for everything to come together, if it comes together...yeah, I'll err on the side of pessimism.

I have to say that if we took this ridiculous tank until we get the next McDavid route that might vote might have been infinity.

 

[ricky0034]

I would guess somewhere around 15-20 years or so depending on exactly how many years it eventually takes to realize the need to start over from scratch

 

[lilidk]

We will have 3 first round picks this draft, it will take 3-4 years for those picks to become impact players. Next year Yzerman should be buyer big time , using picks and prospects . Larkin only 30, Raymond and Seider and Edvinsson I their prime. 3-4 years my friends

 

[jkutswings]

We had a more assembled team. Now we have a less assembled team but more liquid assets.

Yzerman made it clear what he thinks, but in doing so, he converted known assets into liquid assets (cap space/draft picks).

So until that cap space/draft picks gets converted into known assets... or until I see what Seider/Raymond look like in year 3.... or until I see what Edvinsson/Kasper look like against NHL players... I just have more questions than answers right now. But that's just my take on things.

And to expand on that last part, I am expecting a jump from Raymond next year in year 3.

The team becoming more liquid has not changed my expectations whatsoever. Either Yzerman is successful enough to get Detroit into the playoffs next season or he deserves some heat.

I think he's a great GM. But I have high standards.

 

[Run the Jewels]

I would guess somewhere around 15-20 years or so depending on exactly how many years it eventually takes to realize the need to start over from scratch

So...probably some time before the sun expands and swallows up earth.

 

[StargateSG1]

The team becoming more liquid has not changed my expectations whatsoever. Either Yzerman is successful enough to get Detroit into the playoffs next season or he deserves some heat.

I think he's a great GM. But I have high standards.

Very little chance this is a playoff team next season.
Which East team are they supposed to "knock out" of playoffs next season?
Boston, Toronto, Tampa remains, Buffalo and Ottawa will be there too, Florida should rebound, Habs will be better.
In Metro, you have Canes, Jersey and Rangers at the top, Islanders trying with full year of Horvat.
Even if Pens and Caps start rebuilding, which they won't, there is already no room in playoffs.

 

[jkutswings]

Not a chance this is a playoff team next season.
Which East team are they supposed to "knock out" of playoffs next season?
Boston, Toronto, Tampa remains, Buffalo and Ottawa will be there too, Florida should rebound, Habs will be better.
In Metro, you have Canes, Jersey and Rangers at the top, Islanders trying with full year of Horvat.
Even if Pens and Caps start rebuilding, which they won't, there is already no room in playoffs.

Since you asked:
- TB, CAR, NJ, NYR should still be in.
- BOS and TOR have TBD cap situations, but I expect both to make the playoffs.
- FLA and NYI are enigma. Can't pretend to predict those.
- I have zero respect for both BUF and OTT. Until they prove they can make it, I expect both to fall short.
- MON is trash and will remain so.
- PIT and WAS have lost their windows.

So that's 6 teams in, 2 unknowns, and the rest out.

So Detroit just has to outdo one of the maybes. With what I'm expecting to be one or more significant and immediately impactful assets added this summer.

 

[SCD]

4-6, but it may be longer. It took Yzerman and crew several years to figure it out before they peaked. Not enough quality forwards in the pipeline to help short-term. If they are unable to land a top six forward this draft, I certainly expect it to take longer.

 

[Reddwit]

I would guess somewhere around 15-20 years or so depending on exactly how many years it eventually takes to realize the need to start over from scratch

I keep seeing you talk about “starting from scratch” yet our most important pieces are all 21 or younger. The only difference-maker doing anything on this roster who isn’t essentially a child, the only guy worth any assets, is Larkin. Literally the difference between “starting over” and not is…Larkin. That’s it. You’re making this out to be some grand solution to the rebuild, without even considering that if Edvinsson and Kasper DO hit their marks, and we have already moved on from Larkin, we’re back at square one, or worse - a team too good on the back end to lose but no offensive depth up front to win. Congrats. You’ve made us the Predators, with all their playoff glory.

You don’t hit rebuild on the rebuild when 80% of your most important assets are kids, 40% of which haven’t made the NHL yet. The rebuild hinges on what Edvinsson and Kasper become yet you want to proclaim the rebuild a bust without having seen anything from them. Nonsense. Put the magic 8 ball away.

 

[19 for president]

I don't think we can predict until we see what Yzerman does at the draft. If he makes all of those picks then we have quite a ways to go. If he deals for established players that moves up that timeline.

Kasper I think probably follows a Larkin type developent so we'll say he'll be a top 6 center entering his 3rd season.

Ed also strikes me as a likely 3 year guy before he really hits his stride as the dominant 2nd pair guy. I don't think he and Seider will usually line up together.

Ray I think turns is around next season while Bergy has a bit of a slump and turns it around the year after.

Ras probably starts to hit his stride after next season. He'll build next year I think but his breakout will be the following.

Husso is fine as a starter now and should be for the next 5ish years if Cossa doesn't develop and beat him out. I'd predict 1-2 years in the AHL before Cossa fights for a backup or NHL starter spot. So probably 4 season estimate before Cossa is a starter at earliest.

Wallinder is probably 1 year from the NHL and possibly an additional 2-3 before he could really take off. He's a bit of a slow developer.

Other guys are too tbd to really count them in. So with this group I think with this group + Seider I think true contention could be 3-4 years away if we add established players to this group. If we draft then it could take 5-6 unless we really luck out on forward picks. D and goalie should be good in that 3-4 window but for this group its the forwards that I think will determine the window.

 

[Ezekial]

Depends on how we allocate these future assets. 3-5 if we use them to acquire players instead of draft picks.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

I keep seeing you talk about “starting from scratch” yet our most important pieces are all 21 or younger. The only difference-maker doing anything on this roster who isn’t essentially a child, the only guy worth any assets, is Larkin. Literally the difference between “starting over” and not is…Larkin. That’s it. You’re making this out to be some grand solution to the rebuild, without even considering that if Edvinsson and Kasper DO hit their marks, and we have already moved on from Larkin, we’re back at square one, or worse - a team too good on the back end to lose but no offensive depth up front to win. Congrats. You’ve made us the Predators, with all their playoff glory.

You don’t hit rebuild on the rebuild when 80% of your most important assets are kids, 40% of which haven’t made the NHL yet. The rebuild hinges on what Edvinsson and Kasper become yet you want to proclaim the rebuild a bust without having seen anything from them. Nonsense. Put the magic 8 ball away.

That's because the part people aren't saying out loud is start from scratch and magically draft generational talent.

Simple, right?

 

[Reddwit]

That's because the part people aren't saying out loud is start from scratch and magically draft generational talent.

Simple, right?

That really is it. As if Detroit is immune to drafting the Stromes, Puljujarvis, and Zachas of the world.

 

[kliq]

Very little chance this is a playoff team next season.
Which East team are they supposed to "knock out" of playoffs next season?
Boston, Toronto, Tampa remains, Buffalo and Ottawa will be there too, Florida should rebound, Habs will be better.
In Metro, you have Canes, Jersey and Rangers at the top, Islanders trying with full year of Horvat.
Even if Pens and Caps start rebuilding, which they won't, there is already no room in playoffs.

You are essentially going with a narrative of the best case scenarios for all the bubble teams in an effort to shit on the Wings. I can easily see any of Ottawa, Buffalo, NYI, Florida, Pittsburgh and Washington not making the playoffs. To say any of those teams are locks is laughable. I’m not even sure why you mentioned Montreal, while you are at why not say the BJ’s are a lock.

All the teams I listed as well as us are going to be battling for the wild card and the 3rd seeds next season. We have as good of a chance as any of them. Hell, we were right there with them all up to a week ago. I’m not saying we are above any of those teams this year, but you’re making it sound like we’re in a different planet.

Not to mention, ever year a team on top falls because of injuries or just locker room issues. Going into this season florida looked like locks, but that didn’t happen. Any of the top team could fall.

 

[StargateSG1]

You are essentially going with a narrative of the best case scenarios for all the bubble teams in an effort to shit on the Wings. I can easily see any of Ottawa, Buffalo, NYI, Florida, Pittsburgh and Washington not making the playoffs. To say any of those teams are locks is laughable. I’m not even sure why you mentioned Montreal, while you are at why not say the BJ’s are a lock.

All the teams I listed as well as us are going to be battling for the wild card and the 3rd seeds next season. We have as good of a chance as any of them. Hell, we were right there with them all up to a week ago. I’m not saying we are above any of those teams this year, but you’re making it sound like we’re in a different planet.

Not to mention, ever year a team on top falls because of injuries or just locker room issues. Going into this season florida looked like locks, but that didn’t happen. Any of the top team could fall.

Even Yzerman said Sens and Sabres are ahead of us, is he shitting on the Wings too?
In any case, you feel like expecting playoffs next season, be my guest.
I think they are at best the 11th-12th team in the conference as of right now.
Pending any major moves in the summer, I'll stick to that.

 

[kliq]

Even Yzerman said Sens and Sabres are ahead of us, is he shitting on the Wings too?
In any case, you feel like expecting playoffs next season, be my guest.
I think they are at best the 11th-12th team in the conference as of right now.
Pending any major moves in the summer, I'll stick to that.

No, because Yzerman isn't whining about this team or former GM's of this team every single time he has something to say.

I'm not saying we are getting into the playoffs next year, what I am saying is I believe we will be right in the thick of things along with all those other bubble teams just like the majority of this year. The context in which Yzerman said Ottawa and Buffalo are ahead of us, was in they are ahead of us in their rebuilds because they stated their re-builds before us. It doesnt mean that all re-builds are linear at the exact same pace. Just because those teams may be marginally better this year, doesn't mean they will be better next year. They may, they may, not but you make it sound like fact which is ridicules to say in March considering there is so much turnover every season on every NHL team, and thats not even factoring in injuries.