Paul Coffey vs. Erik Karlsson

[McFlash97]

Coffey was on another level man. Consistency and skating was even better than Karlsson. Karlsson is a Coffey clone but a lesser version.

 

[McFlash97]

In terms of adjusted stats - Coffee edges out Karlsson by 12 points at his peak, while playing on arguably the greatest offensive team ever assembled. Saying he 'blows him out of the water' is nothing short of ridiculous.

I always seem to forget the H in HF stands for Hyperbole. No one seems to be able to make an argument on here while remaining reasonable. It's always this kind of nonsense.

Yea Karlsson would be a 140 point player with those Oilers. Is that what your trying to get at ?

Lol

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Sigh, this poll… I’ve yet to see any substantial arguments for Coffey being a tier above Karlsson offensively. Typical case where the narrative is more important than facts. “Eh… wait a minute… Coffey is way better than Karlsson… cause, cause… everyone knows that…”

You mean, you just ignore all the arguments that are valid and point out the gap.

 

[GrumpyKoala]

Coffey for peak, prime, career, playoffs. Absolutely no argument for Karlsson.

Moustache?

 

[MCR74]

You mean, you just ignore all the arguments that are valid and point out the gap.

That's pretty much the bulk of his posts.

 

[Hippasus]

The long career point is a difference of opinion and a good point, but you can't do that when one player is active. For the best years, I looked at the stats for adjusted season totals and the numbers don't really show an extreme offensive dominance at all IMO. What stats are you're referring to?

I looked at the adjusted pts stats for Coffey, Karlsson, (and Orr to give me some context/reference) on hockey-reference. Top 5 seasons when Orr is included, since he only had 5 mostly full seasons and one 63 game season. Top 6 seasons for Coffey/Karlsson since Karlsson only has 6 mostly full seasons and is still playing. Coffey also had a season with 45 games in the lockout season which I didn't include, which does bring his stats down a bit. IMO that's not enough games to extrapolate a good adjusts point total but I can at least see arguments both for/against.

Coffey	Karlsson	Orr
108​	96​	129​
100​	92​	124​
96​	86​	117​
94​	82​	117​
86​	78​	117​
82​	73​	94​
77​	63​	62​

%decrease from Coffey's point totals to Karlsson's point totals:
Average of top 5 seasons: 10.3%
Average of top 6 seasons: 10.4%
Average of top 7 seasons: 11.5%
So 10% less points for Karlsson. A decently sized difference but not that much given some of the other context IMO.

(If we give Coffey the benefit of doubt in the shortened season and add it to the list, and subtract his worst season, this would change to 13%. Pretty good gap but this is Coffey's best 7 seasons in his career, compared to Karlsson who's still currently playing. Who knows if Karlsson can add to his best seasons?)

%decrease from Orr's point totals to Coffey'spoint totals:
Average of top 5 seasons: 20%
Average of top 6 seasons: 18.8%


Now as a side note, remember Karlsson is the only one who's still actively playing. Let's be conservative and assume he has only one more pretty good season left. Not out of the realm of possibility with the Pens right? Something around 90pts in adjusted total. Not his best but still pretty good. How does that compare to Coffey now?

%decrease from Coffey's point totals to Karlsson's point totals with a potential adjusted 90 pts season added in:
Average of top 5 seasons: 7.7%
Average of top 6 seasons: 7.2%
Average of top 7 seasons: 6.9%

Really doesn't seem like much of a gap at all.

Somewhere between a tiny moment of icetime and an entire career the line has to be drawn. What are the most important criteria? I take actual results for the full career, and secondly consider prime value, unless the player(s) being compared has a fraction of a decent length career (say, less than nine seasons).

I'd argue that Coffey is at the bottom-end of a top tier player because of his historic numbers as a defenseman. Orr had his career cut short, so that's how Coffey ends up so high in all-time value compared to him, in my opinion.

Your numbers show how Coffey is a level above Karlsson. What hasn't happened yet in Karlsson's career means nothing. It might never happen. I hope he does well, but the games would still have to be played.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Yea Karlsson would be a 140 point player with those Oilers. Is that what your trying to get at ?

Lol

Yes - I think last year's version of EK likely would have hit more than 138 points on the Coffey-less Oilers from 1985-86.

If you look at the 7 full seasons EK has played since he broke out, and you apply his point% vs team goals scored, this is what it looks like:

2011-12	32.10%
2013-14	32.31%
2014-15	28.45%
2015-16	35.65%
2016-17	34.47%
2017-18	28.31%
2022-23	43.35%

Now if you adjust that to his team scoring 426 goals like the Oilers did in 1985-86, you get:

2011-12	137 points
2013-14	138 points
2014-15	121 points
2015-16	152 points
2016-17	147 points
2017-18	121 points
2022-23	185 points

The average of the table above is 143 points.

I'm not suggesting he hits 185 or averages 143. I get that he would likely get a lower point% overall, and that being a low-scoring team probably inflates that spacific stat at least a little bit.

What I am suggesting is he would still get more than 138 at the absolute peak of his career on a team with as much firepower as that Oilers team. At his peak, Risto Siltanen was literally a point-per-game defenceman on a similar Oilers team. Gary Suter hit 91 points on a Flames team that had 397 goals. These are not EK/Coffey-level defencemen but they racked up points because their teams simply scored a stupid amount. Combine that with how effective/efficient EK is offensively and I believe he eclipses 138. You can disagree which is fine.

Now let me ask you this...
Karlsson got 101 points on a team that scored 234 goals. Do you think it's unreasonable to suggest he may have gotten an extra 38 points if his team had scored an extra 192 goals (426 total)? Or rather than aswering that - how many points do you think he'd have gotten? Clearly less than 138 - but what's your number exactly? What seems "realistic' to you?

 

[GreatGonzo]

Yes - I think last year's version of EK likely would have hit more than 138 points on the Coffey-less Oilers from 1985-86.

If you look at the 7 full seasons EK has played since he broke out, and you apply his point% vs team goals scored, this is what it looks like:

2011-12	32.10%
2013-14	32.31%
2014-15	28.45%
2015-16	35.65%
2016-17	34.47%
2017-18	28.31%
2022-23	43.35%

Now if you adjust that to his team scoring 426 goals like the Oilers did in 1985-86, you get:

2011-12	137 points
2013-14	138 points
2014-15	121 points
2015-16	152 points
2016-17	147 points
2017-18	121 points
2022-23	185 points

The average of the table above is 143 points.

I'm not suggesting he hits 185 or averages 143. I get that he would likely get a lower point% overall, and that being a low-scoring team probably inflates that spacific stat at least a little bit.

What I am suggesting is he would still get more than 138 at the absolute peak of his career on a team with as much firepower as that Oilers team. At his peak, Risto Siltanen was literally a point-per-game defenceman on a similar Oilers team. Gary Suter hit 91 points on a Flames team that had 397 goals. These are not EK/Coffey-level defencemen but they racked up points because their teams simply scored a stupid amount. Combine that with how effective/efficient EK is offensively and I believe he eclipses 138. You can disagree which is fine.

Now let me ask you this...
Karlsson got 101 points on a team that scored 234 goals. Do you think it's unreasonable to suggest he may have gotten an extra 38 points if his team had scored an extra 192 goals (426 total)? Or rather than aswering that - how many points do you think he'd have gotten? Clearly less than 138 - but what's your number exactly? What seems "realistic' to you?

If that’s the case. Does Peak Coffey get better numbers than EK did on those same sharks teams given that he would always have the puck and the deployment and lack of defense?

 

[SimpleJack]

Imagine thinking Erik Karlsson is better than Paul Coffey…

 

[KevinRedkey]

Imagine thinking Erik Karlsson is better than Paul Coffey…

I don't think Karlsson is better (everything considered) than Coffey, but there's much worse takes than thinking a 3-time Norris winner is better than another 3-time Norris winner.

If that’s the case. Does Peak Coffey get better numbers than EK did on those same sharks teams given that he would always have the puck and the deployment and lack of defense?

I clearly presented logic behind what I suggested. Whehter you agree with it or not is a whole other thing.

What's the logic suggesting Coffey would score more than EK on the Sharks exactly? Seems like a strange argument to make.

 

[GoldenSeal]

Coffey made great players greater when he played alongside them.

 

[authentic]

One thing that really stands out for me with Coffey, he was traded from Pittsburgh after 1991 season and Pitt wins the cup in 92. Coffey is traded from LA during the 93 season and LA goes to the final. Coffey is traded from Detroit after the 96 season and Detroit wins in 97….

Goes to show how strong his teams were literally his entire career. His point totals are boosted way more than Karlsonn's because of this

 

[Hippasus]

Goes to show how strong his teams were literally his entire career. His point totals are boosted way more than Karlsonn's because of this

Sometimes it goes the other way too. If you're "the" guy offensively, you get the better and more icetime. The other team might key on you more, but my point is it's not as cut-and-dried as you're saying.

 

[Random Comment]

Karlsson pretty easily, but Coffey was no slouch.

 

[GreatGonzo]

I don't think Karlsson is better (everything considered) than Coffey, but there's much worse takes than thinking a 3-time Norris winner is better than another 3-time Norris winner.



I clearly presented logic behind what I suggested. Whehter you agree with it or not is a whole other thing.

What's the logic suggesting Coffey would score more than EK on the Sharks exactly? Seems like a strange argument to make.

Weird how Coffey could never reach those point totals on those sharks teams, yet EK would out score Coffey on those Oilers teams…but you want to talk about “logic.”

 

[Fatass]

Holy! How can this be anything other than Coffee? Multiple Cups. Way more points. Many 100 + point seasons. Big plus player. EK is the opposite. Coffee is top 5 D of all time. Imo EK is closer to #15-20.

Karlsson pretty easily, but Coffey was no slouch.

Okay that’s your opinion. Can you support that with any evidence or is it just your opinion? Because imo Coffee is by far the better plsyer and it’s not even close.

 

[OrrNumber4]

That table is funny, since I'd intuit that the gap between Coffey and Karlsson offensively is less than the gap between Leetch and Karlsson.

You can adjust points for eras, but Coffey's numbers are obviously "inflated" by his great teammates.

 

[wetcoast]

Let me preface this by saying I think Ben White is generally wrong in this argument. That said, I went to hockey-reference to verify the stats. Very interesting how Coffey is missing his 9th best total, yet Karlsson is missing his 2nd, 6th, and 7th best total. (As a side note one of Coffey's 100pt season, he played 45 games for 58 pts, IMO that shouldn't count in this list but that's a discussion for another day)

Now I have confirmation you're not debating in good faith. Puts every post you've made into question, unless I'm missing something. Let me know if I am, and I'll happily change my mind.
But don't say it doesn't change much if we add those missing values. That's not the point of this.

View attachment 744863

I legitimately can't believe this is the kind of arguments I'm seeing here, and so many people giving thumbs up to this kind of data without verifying it.

View attachment 744867

My apologies my scrap piece of paper I wrote it on and then posted on did miss the 73 and 62 point season and if I missed the 92 point one that was also an error on my part (I went back and looked and I did miss the 92 point one) but thankfully you didn't jump to the conclusion that I was arguing in bad faith.

 

[wetcoast]

Yes - I think last year's version of EK likely would have hit more than 138 points on the Coffey-less Oilers from 1985-86.

If you look at the 7 full seasons EK has played since he broke out, and you apply his point% vs team goals scored, this is what it looks like:

2011-12	32.10%
2013-14	32.31%
2014-15	28.45%
2015-16	35.65%
2016-17	34.47%
2017-18	28.31%
2022-23	43.35%

Now if you adjust that to his team scoring 426 goals like the Oilers did in 1985-86, you get:

2011-12	137 points
2013-14	138 points
2014-15	121 points
2015-16	152 points
2016-17	147 points
2017-18	121 points
2022-23	185 points

The average of the table above is 143 points.

I'm not suggesting he hits 185 or averages 143. I get that he would likely get a lower point% overall, and that being a low-scoring team probably inflates that spacific stat at least a little bit.

What I am suggesting is he would still get more than 138 at the absolute peak of his career on a team with as much firepower as that Oilers team. At his peak, Risto Siltanen was literally a point-per-game defenceman on a similar Oilers team. Gary Suter hit 91 points on a Flames team that had 397 goals. These are not EK/Coffey-level defencemen but they racked up points because their teams simply scored a stupid amount. Combine that with how effective/efficient EK is offensively and I believe he eclipses 138. You can disagree which is fine.

Now let me ask you this...
Karlsson got 101 points on a team that scored 234 goals. Do you think it's unreasonable to suggest he may have gotten an extra 38 points if his team had scored an extra 192 goals (426 total)? Or rather than aswering that - how many points do you think he'd have gotten? Clearly less than 138 - but what's your number exactly? What seems "realistic' to you?

The thing is that this argument has seen reality of when Karlsson went to a better team, the Sharks and his scoring didn't increase and most likely it will happen again in Pittsburg.

So which is more convincing the projection theory or what actually happened?

 

[RooBicks]

Karlsson would have destroyed the 80"s

Coffey would have destroyed the 2010's and 20's though as well!

 

[McFlash97]

Yes - I think last year's version of EK likely would have hit more than 138 points on the Coffey-less Oilers from 1985-86.

If you look at the 7 full seasons EK has played since he broke out, and you apply his point% vs team goals scored, this is what it looks like:

2011-12	32.10%
2013-14	32.31%
2014-15	28.45%
2015-16	35.65%
2016-17	34.47%
2017-18	28.31%
2022-23	43.35%

Now if you adjust that to his team scoring 426 goals like the Oilers did in 1985-86, you get:

2011-12	137 points
2013-14	138 points
2014-15	121 points
2015-16	152 points
2016-17	147 points
2017-18	121 points
2022-23	185 points

The average of the table above is 143 points.

I'm not suggesting he hits 185 or averages 143. I get that he would likely get a lower point% overall, and that being a low-scoring team probably inflates that spacific stat at least a little bit.

What I am suggesting is he would still get more than 138 at the absolute peak of his career on a team with as much firepower as that Oilers team. At his peak, Risto Siltanen was literally a point-per-game defenceman on a similar Oilers team. Gary Suter hit 91 points on a Flames team that had 397 goals. These are not EK/Coffey-level defencemen but they racked up points because their teams simply scored a stupid amount. Combine that with how effective/efficient EK is offensively and I believe he eclipses 138. You can disagree which is fine.

Now let me ask you this...
Karlsson got 101 points on a team that scored 234 goals. Do you think it's unreasonable to suggest he may have gotten an extra 38 points if his team had scored an extra 192 goals (426 total)? Or rather than aswering that - how many points do you think he'd have gotten? Clearly less than 138 - but what's your number exactly? What seems "realistic' to you?

Lol.

This guy thinks adjusted PPG is a linear line.

Erik Karlsson doesn't do anything better than prime Coffey man.

Skate ?
Pass ?
Shoot ?
Run a powerplay ?

Karlsson literally had the green light to do whatever he wanted in San Jose last year. He was playing shinny hockey.

Can you imagine prime Coffey in today's league where smaller guys like Adam Fox and Quinn Hughes can put up ppg ? If prime Coffey was given green reign to skate and do whatever he wanted, I shudder at the thought of how many points he could get. He glided better than 99 % of players could skate.

On a team with Yzerman, Fedorov, etc, it was a 33 year Coffey that led them in scoring.

After Orr , Coffey was the greatest offensive force from the backend in NHL history.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Lol.

This guy thinks adjusted PPG is a linear line.

Erik Karlsson doesn't do anything better than prime Coffey man.

Skate ?
Pass ?
Shoot ?
Run a powerplay ?

Karlsson literally had the green light to do whatever he wanted in San Jose last year. He was playing shinny hockey.

Can you imagine prime Coffey in today's league where smaller guys like Adam Fox and Quinn Hughes can put up ppg ? If prime Coffey was given green reign to skate and do whatever he wanted, I shudder at the thought of how many points he could get. He glided better than 99 % of players could skate.

On a team with Yzerman, Fedorov, etc, it was a 33 year Coffey that led them in scoring.

After Orr , Coffey was the greatest offensive force from the backend in NHL history.

[mod]

You're literally not even arguing the same thing as I am. You're lost. Lol

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I clearly presented logic behind what I suggested. Whehter you agree with it or not is a whole other thing.

And several times in this thread it's been presented what ACTUALLY happens when Karlsson plays on a better team.

We don't need these fantasyland games, it's logic to suggest that the % of points will come DOWN when there's a better team around him, and that shows up in his actual #s and play, as well.

I guess if the Sharks weren't a good enough example we'll see what happens with Pittsburgh this year too.

 

[BraveCanadian]

I clearly presented logic behind what I suggested. Whehter you agree with it or not is a whole other thing.

I appreciate you showing your work, but if your logic spits out ludicrous numbers that even you doubt would happen, how can you then use them as support for what could happen?

What's the logic suggesting Coffey would score more than EK on the Sharks exactly? Seems like a strange argument to make.

The logic is that Coffey was a superior player offensively and defensively by every reasonable metric.

 

[amnesiac]

Wrong. Karlsson did it while also being the top point getter and top dog on his team almost every time. None of Coffey’s top seasons he was the top dog on his team. This needs to be accounted for big time. Also Coffey had A LOT better support + (and this is important) he played a lot more full seasons which make his stat line look slightly more impressive, their top 5 is basically a wash - comparing the teams where they accomplished those top 5 seasons and it speaks volumes in favour of EK65.

Also you forgot one stat:

NHL assists leader:

Karlsson: 1
Coffey: 0

There are several other stats where Karlsson has Coffey beat as well:

The all time Dman leader in point on % of team goals: Karlsson. Only Dman since orr to be top 5 in league points while also leading his team in points: Karlsson. 2nd in the league in 5v5 points (while also being the top 5v5 scorer on his team no less): Karlsson. 2nd in the league in blocked shots: Karlsson.

says the guy who would vote Karlsson over Bobby freakin ORR