Player Discussion Patrik Laine: Part 2 - Healthy Living Edition

[Marioesque]

When the puck is on his stick there's a 90% chance he will turn it over.

a 1900% chance at least.

This kinda hyperbole stuff is so helpful and constructive.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

What metrics are those? Some "expected" stats or something

5v5 compared to regular roster players:

Goals: only Roy has scored less
Assists: he has one more than Dach and Heineman
Points: only Roy has less
xGoal differential: only Armia and Dach are worse
Corsi for %: only Roy is worse
xGoals against: only Roy, Pezzetta and Heineman are worse

Any other stats you want you can check yourself

NHL Team Advanced Stats

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Edit: I should note this is among forwards only

 

[Captain97]

I think people are overacting to how bad he has been. He isn't a play driver he is a trigger man he needs to play with good players so he can "get lost" and pull the trigger.

With Demidov and a hoepfully a 2C he'll do better at 5v5 next year.

 

[Marioesque]

5v5 compared to regular roster players:

Goals: only Roy has scored less
Assists: he has one more than Dach and Heineman
Points: only Roy has less
xGoal differential: only Armia and Dach are worse
Corsi for %: only Roy is worse
xGoals against: only Roy, Pezzetta and Heineman are worse

Any other stats you want you can check yourself

NHL Team Advanced Stats

Analyze all NHL teams with advanced stats & data visualization

moneypuck.com

As I expected, nothing at all useful. A bad faith argument

Goals and points, well he plays 11 minutes with the worst line in hockey (before he got in it) and he missed over 30 games which isn't considered in those at all

then the "expected" stuff . I have to tell you, I don't give a rats ass about expected. I only care about actualized.

 

[Mrb1p]

Not at 5 on 5, where he is bottom 3 on the team in basically every metric

Like what?

Hes producing at a similar rate as Newhook and Armia and more than Dach, Heineman, Roy, Kapanen, Condotta, Pezz and Beck.
Hes 8th on the team for penalty drawn.
Hes 6th on the team for shot blocked/games.
Hes 5th on the team for faceoff %
Hes last on the team in shooting % at 5v5, which seems to me hes rather unlucky, for such a great shooter.
Hes 9th on on-ice goal %
Hes ahead of Dvorak, Dach, Newhook, Anderson and Armia in on ice goal differential (-9, only thr first line is positive.)


It sure looks like hes a middle of the pack player that had pretty bad luck, and probably a lot of negative impact due to injuries.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

As I expected, nothing at all useful. A bad faith argument

Goals and points, well he plays 11 minutes with the worst line in hockey (before he got in it) and he missed over 30 games which isn't considered in those at all

then the "expected" stuff . I have to tell you, I don't give a rats ass about expected. I only care about actualized.

Ok so you just deny everything and live in a complete fantasy land then huh

 

[Sasha Orlov]

As I expected, nothing at all useful. A bad faith argument

Goals and points, well he plays 11 minutes with the worst line in hockey (before he got in it) and he missed over 30 games which isn't considered in those at all

then the "expected" stuff . I have to tell you, I don't give a rats ass about expected. I only care about actualized.

“He missed over 30 games which isn’t considered at all”

“I don’t give a rats ass about expected”

Too funny dude

 

[Marioesque]

I think people are overacting to how bad he has been. He isn't a play driver he is a trigger man he needs to play with good players so he can "get lost" and pull the trigger.

With Demidov and a hoepfully a 2C he'll do better at 5v5 next year.

You got it. The results will be completely different with a capable cast and reasonable ice time. Always has been that way with him.

 

[le_sean]

I think people are overacting to how bad he has been. He isn't a play driver he is a trigger man he needs to play with good players so he can "get lost" and pull the trigger.

With Demidov and a hoepfully a 2C he'll do better at 5v5 next year.

But why does he need very specific linemates to look passable 5v5 if he’s paid $9m? Why is that being normalized? Our entire 1st line makes less than him and it’s night and day seeing what they do 5v5. The entire 3rd line makes less than him and it’s also night and day.

And even on the PP, it’s just a shot. He doesn’t move or offer anything else. Yes it’s an A++ shot, but come on, we need more.

I also think he’ll be better with Demidov. But why is the onus on a rookie to make our most expensive player look good?

 

[Marioesque]

Ok so you just deny everything and live in a complete fantasy land then huh

Deny everything? Well if your argument is that he has less points than others, or less 5 on 5 goals, that doesn't count minutes played at all. So it's an idiotic argument. It completely overlooks the most important data, how many minutes.

And the expected bullshit, if you want to think that's worth something that's your prerogative.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

Deny everything? Well if your argument is that he has less points than others, or less 5 on 5 goals, that doesn't count minutes played at all. So it's an idiotic argument. It completely overlooks the most important data, how many minutes.

And the expected bullshit, if you want to think that's worth something that's your prerogative.

I give up, he is the best player in the NHL and just needs the perfect situation to show it

 

[Calendal]

This discussion is out of hand.

Laine is prone to turnovers and there are situations where he gets the puck too much (below own blue line) and has trouble handling it out.

All that said, I would put him in top 9 forwards defensively in almost any team including ours. He haa a huge reach with his wingspan and a long stick that will push the attackers back. It's not as obvious or flashy as some players , but he is "ok".

 

[LaP]

But why does he need very specific linemates to look passable 5v5 if he’s paid $9m? Why is that being normalized? Our entire 1st line makes less than him and it’s night and day seeing what they do 5v5. The entire 3rd line makes less than him and it’s also night and day.

And even on the PP, it’s just a shot. He doesn’t move or offer anything else. Yes it’s an A++ shot, but come on, we need more.

I also think he’ll be better with Demidov. But why is the onus on a rookie to make our most expensive player look good?

The PP needs a shot from the blue line a lot more than a Laine replacement. Laine plays on the PP the same way Ovy does and it's fine. The lack of dmen capable of scoring goals from the blue line is a far bigger issue for our PP.

 

[Mrb1p]

Laine looked like a robot who was processing everything just a fraction of a second slower than everyone around him last night. The occasional second effort, a decent pass here, but not there...

There have been some games, recently, where he looked okay at even strength, but definitely not dominant as some expect him to be to consider him just okay at even strength.

I'm seriously hoping that Hughes can land a genuine 2C for next season. Laine will never be the play driver on his team at even strength -- he's not even remotely that on the PP folks -- but Demidov is coming over to be that for us.

A line of Laine - 2C - Demidov will help Laine shine at even strength and, for that, he won't have to do much more than what he does on the PP and have just as much hustle on the back check as he already proved he could have in the games where he was just okay at even strength.

Opponents will start double teaming Demidov soon enough and, with a genuine 2C as an option for a pass, that line will be able to regularly tee up Laine for one-timers that will burn our opponents.

With Demidov and a genuine 2C, I can't imagine a healthy Laine getting less than 60 points on a second line and with a PP role. Hell, he's already pacing for close to that (58 points) and 35 goals (what Caufield just got) without a semblance of a 2C to feed him and no Demidov to drive the play. Newhook might be really fast, but he doesn't have the on ice vision and playmaking skills of a genuine 2C or a Demidov.

Having two potential 35+ goal scorers in Caufield and Laine next season will be a real challenge for opponents.

Just having Laine as a scoring threat on a line with Demidov will provide at least a bit more room for the Russian rookie at even strength. The addition of that genuine 2C is key for the HABS and must become Hughes' primary mission in the offseason.

There are enough assets to get one, whether it is via a trade of NHL players, strictly futures, or a mix of both, depending on the quality and age of the C that is available to us?

It could hurt a little (trading Guhle as the prime example, including A.Xhekaj with futures in a package, or including a top prospect like Hage in the deal), but could end up being crucial for the Habs to take the next step sooner than later.

Ideally, the package for a 2C would involve Matheson and/or Evans, and/or Heineman, and/or Dach, and/or Newhook as regular NHLers, if regular NHLers needed to be included. Beyond that, Beck, Kapanen, Mailloux, Engström and Primeau would all be available as prospects to add to a package.

Then, in terms of draft picks, Montreal has three first rounders, four second rounders and four third rounders over the next two drafts to include in a deal.

It might be really hard to trade for a good C in the NHL, as Bergevin always said, but there definitely enough firepower in Hughes' arsenal to slay that dragon!

BTW, even Bergevin, as hard as it is to acquire a good C in the NHL, didn't do a bad job with Suzuki, even if most maintain that he just lucked into it.

Guhle isnt getting traded, stop this.

 

[LaP]

I give up, he is the best player in the NHL and just needs the perfect situation to show it

Not a single soul said that.

 

[le_sean]

This discussion is out of hand.

Laine is prone to turnovers and there are situations where he gets the puck too much (below own blue line) and has trouble handling it out.

All that said, I would put him in top 9 forwards defensively in almost any team including ours. He haa a huge reach with his wingspan and a long stick that will push the attackers back. It's not as obvious or flashy as some players , but he is "ok".

I’m sorry but are we now arguing that he’s good defensively?

Like I’m all for giving him some benefit of the doubt due to his injury and past track record, but this is insane.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

Not a single soul said that.

You’re right, he was actually compared to Lemieux so he’s beyond that

 

[le_sean]

The PP needs a shot from the blue line a lot more than a Laine replacement. Laine plays on the PP the same way Ovy does and it's fine. The lack of dmen capable of scoring goals from the blue line is a far bigger issue for our PP.

I don’t care about his PP presence, he’s been nothing but good in that department. The issue is it’s the only thing he brings.

 

[Marioesque]

But why does he need very specific linemates to look passable 5v5 if he’s paid $9m?

Specific linemates?? The line he is in, was the worst in the league when he joined it.

Specific? Like "not worst in the league" specific? Yeah, he could use a better line.

Is it that $9 million means that you can turn the worst line in the league into a legit 2nd line, or you're not worth the money? They didn't get him to drive play, they got him to score goals. His line generates no chances for him, ever. He generates chances for them but they have hands made of wood.

Why is that being normalized? Our entire 1st line makes less than him and it’s night and day seeing what they do 5v5. The entire 3rd line makes less than him and it’s also night and day.

He plays less minutes than the 3rd line. With worse linemates. And he is a far better player (ceiling) than anyone in those lines.

And even on the PP, it’s just a shot. He doesn’t move or offer anything else. Yes it’s an A++ shot, but come on, we need more.

You're not watching games, or not understanding what happens. Yeah, he does NEED to stand there ready for the one T, when the lane is blocked he moves up and down. Sometimes he cycles to the bumper. Watch the games dude.

And understand that it's not just an A++ shot, it's the best PP weapon in the league. Even when standing there, the opponent is forced to focus on him so the rest of the PP gets an even better PP opportunity.

Any team in the league would want him standing there in their PP1. Why do YOU have a problem with it? Because you think people need to look busier to "earn" the goals they score so effortlessly?

 

[Mrb1p]

5v5 compared to regular roster players:

Goals: only Roy has scored less
Assists: he has one more than Dach and Heineman
Points: only Roy has less
xGoal differential: only Armia and Dach are worse
Corsi for %: only Roy is worse
xGoals against: only Roy, Pezzetta and Heineman are worse

Any other stats you want you can check yourself

NHL Team Advanced Stats

Analyze all NHL teams with advanced stats & data visualization

moneypuck.com

Edit: I should note this is among forwards only

Hes 7th in APG at 5v5 though.

 

[le_sean]

Specific linemates?? The line he is in, was the worst in the league when he joined it.

Specific? Like "not worst in the league" specific? Yeah, he could use a better line.

Is it that $9 million means that you can turn the worst line in the league into a legit 2nd line, or you're not worth the money? They didn't get him to drive play, they got him to score goals. His line generates no chances for him, ever. He generates chances for them but they have hands made of wood.



He plays less minutes than the 3rd line. With worse linemates. And he is a far better player (ceiling) than anyone in those lines.


You're not watching games, or not understanding what happens. Yeah, he does NEED to stand there ready for the one T, when the lane is blocked he moves up and down. Sometimes he cycles to the bumper. Watch the games dude.

And understand that it's not just an A++ shot, it's the best PP weapon in the league. Even when standing there, the opponent is forced to focus on him so the rest of the PP gets an even better PP opportunity.

Any team in the league would want him standing there in their PP1. Why do YOU have a problem with it? Because you think people need to look busier to "earn" the goals they score so effortlessly?

Yeah I’m not watching the games.

He has less 5v5 points than Jayden Struble man. He’s paid $9 million per year. It shouldn’t matter if his linemates are Pezzetta and Barre-Boulet. He produces less than Evans and Armia, two 4th liners. But apparently everyone else is the problem, not him.

 

[Calendal]

I’m sorry but are we now arguing that he’s good defensively?

Like I’m all for giving him some benefit of the doubt due to his injury and past track record, but this is insane.

I did not expect top 9 to be such a high praise. He covers his zone, decent at blocking shots and poor by NHL standards at breaking a cycle. Still puts him in top 9 on most teams in my book, but feel free to argue he is 10, 11 or 13.

 

[Captain97]

You got it. The results will be completely different with a capable cast and reasonable ice time. Always has been that way with him.

Yep, he is a complimentary top 6 forward they are needed too. Bot everyone will be a play driver, they are too hard to come by

 

[Marioesque]

Yeah I’m not watching the games.

He has less 5v5 points than Jayden Struble man. He’s paid $9 million per year. It shouldn’t matter if his linemates are Pezzetta and Barre-Boulet. He produces less than Evans and Armia, two 4th liners. But apparently everyone else is the problem, not him.

It does, you can put many other highly paid players (who have been successful in good lines) in a bad spot and get bad results. Do you know Jeff Skinner?

Slaf was a ghost in that line when he played in it. Everyone has been. Roy, Heineman, Newhook, Dach.

There is a MASSIVE difference between Laine playing with better than current linemates. I've seen it many times, so I would want you to get to see it too . Next season you'll get it.

 

[Marioesque]

I did not expect top 9 to be such a high praise. He covers his zone, decent at blocking shots and poor by NHL standards at breaking a cycle. Still puts him in top 9 on most teams in my book, but feel free to argue he is 10, 11 or 13.

Most blocked shots per 60 out of MTL forwards.

Totally agree on the breaking the cycle!