Player Discussion Patrik Laine: Part 2 - Healthy Living Edition

[BehindTheTimes]

One of the earliest advanced stats results that I can recall is the claim that the shootout is pure luck, there are no good or bad shootout results.

I wonder if that has held.

I disagree with the idea that it is puck luck. There are better shooters imo, much better, in fact, but the truth is there are not many players with a large enough sample size to draw any co cushions. A guy like Toews who was pretty damn good in shootouts, especially in relation to his overall scoring ability only has about 50 attempts over his career and sits at about 47% success rate.

There are others with better percentages. Most don’t have a very large sample.

Edit: Toews actually has 52 goals out of 110 attempts. Still not a huge sample, but one of the best we have.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

I hope both Dach and Laine come back with stronger knees next year.

But maybe Dach will be part of a trade package.

We are a better team if Dach can even regain his form his first year with us, so I do too. I’ve never been that big of a fan of his game. Always found him soft and his shot is quite terrible.

Hes got some tools, but I think the ceiling is pretty low with his shot, his other skills and plsymsking ability are not strong enough to compensate. Thats my feel for him anyway. Might make a good 3rd line winger and a decent ztop 6 replacement over short spurts in case of injury, but I don’t see a future in the top 6. Would love to be wrong.

 

[DAChampion]

I disagree with the idea that it is puck luck. There are better shooters imo, much better, in fact, but the truth is there are not many players with a large enough sample size to draw any co cushions. A guy like Toews who was pretty damn good in shootouts, especially in relation to his overall scoring ability only has about 50 attempts over his career and sits at about 47% success rate.

There are others with better percentages. Most don’t have a very large sample.

Edit: Toews actually has 52 goals out of 110 attempts. Still not a huge sample, but one of the best we have.

If the average NHL center had 20 career faceoffs the advanced stats crowd might tell us that there's no such thing as a better faceoff man.

I think that most likely there are better shootout players, but it shouldn't be read from tables due to the small numbers. Coaches should just send the forwards (or dmen) with the best hands.

 

[VT]

I am only writing about the last two games.
As I wrote in the thread, you can see that he doesn't have that much confidence in his hands in 5v5 which results in less than ideal passing, shooting. But what did MSL do with him? I specifically counted it, he wins most of the fights at the rim, uses his body. He only did that for us in times unknown to anyone during the holidays.
.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Such a slick move in the shootout. Not a lot of players can pull that manoeuvre.

Almosy Every NHL player can pull that move off....it is just about who can do it correctly at a higher percentage of the time. The move that Suzuki attempted and has pulled off multiple times previous to tonight is much harder and there are many NHLers who simply would need an absurd amount of attempts to pull it off and I suspect there are many who would never do it at that level.

Not taking away from Laine's goal as it was beautifully executed. It helps that the goalie has to sell out on the forehand with Laine, so smart decision on his part.

 

[MasterD]

I am only writing about the last two games.
As I wrote in the thread, you can see that he doesn't have that much confidence in his hands in 5v5 which results in less than ideal passing, shooting. But what did MSL do with him? I specifically counted it, he wins most of the fights at the rim, uses his body. He only did that for us in times unknown to anyone during the holidays.
.

Not saying MSL did or didn't do something, but Laine barely played laast year and missed 3 months to a major knee injury this year. Of course it was going to take time.

He is who he is, strengths and flaws. We can use that guy.

 

[VT]

Not saying MSL did or didn't do something, but Laine barely played laast year and missed 3 months to a major knee injury this year. Of course it was going to take time.

He is who he is, strengths and flaws. We can use that guy.

But not in 2021/22 or 2022/23. Yeh, he was injuries too byt played 55/56 games. But he didn't win so many fights.

 

[MasterD]

But not in 2021/22 or 2022/23. Yeh, he was injuries too byt played 55/56 games.

I fail to see how that's related to what I wrote.

 

[VT]

I fail to see how that's related to what I wrote.

I thought I misinterpreted something, because I was writing about winning fights in those two matches, and your answer seemed pretty weird to me.

 

[70Stang]

We are a better team if Dach can even regain his form his first year with us, so I do too. I’ve never been that big of a fan of his game. Always found him soft and his shot is quite terrible.

Hes got some tools, but I think the ceiling is pretty low with his shot, his other skills and plsymsking ability are not strong enough to compensate. Thats my feel for him anyway. Might make a good 3rd line winger and a decent ztop 6 replacement over short spurts in case of injury, but I don’t see a future in the top 6. Would love to be wrong.

I really admire the positivity towards Dach. Really hard to find that belief he can find a positive result after what he has dealt with. Sad to say and I hope I'm wrong but his time in Mtl is over. But then again Markov proved me wrong after blowing up the same knee X2. Can he be a 30-50 point winger that is responsible defensively? That would most likely be his ceiling.

 

[Scintillating10]

If Laine decides to play like he has last 4 games he's good for team.

 

[Hannibal]

If Laine decides to play like he has last 4 games he's good for team.

I didn’t find him that good tbh.

 

[schwang26]

It wouldn’t shock me at all if, when the season ends, he gets his knee operated on. The guy is so bloody slow and seems to have very little mobility. I think he got a second opinion, they told him he could play on it after some rehab, but that he should get surgery at some point. That’s just my opinion.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

I really admire the positivity towards Dach. Really hard to find that belief he can find a positive result after what he has dealt with. Sad to say and I hope I'm wrong but his time in Mtl is over. But then again Markov proved me wrong after blowing up the same knee X2. Can he be a 30-50 point winger that is responsible defensively? That would most likely be his ceiling.

I think it’s way premature to say his time as a Hab is done. I don’t agree with that, but I don’t think you can rely on him for a top 6 role. If he pulls it off and pushes guys down, great, but it can no longer be anticipated. He’s had some bad luck, but I don’t think it’s all bad luck tbh, certain players don’t do a great job of protecting themselves, I think Kirby lacks hockey sense and will always struggle with that

 

[BehindTheTimes]

I didn’t find him that good tbh.

PPG, can’t wait for him to become good. He might be 2PPG.

 

[Miller Time]

It wouldn’t shock me at all if, when the season ends, he gets his knee operated on. The guy is so bloody slow and seems to have very little mobility. I think he got a second opinion, they told him he could play on it after some rehab, but that he should get surgery at some point. That’s just my opinion.

This wouldn't surprise me at all

 

[NotCommitted]

Finally watched a MTL game last night and honestly didn't see what the fuss is about with his 5v5 game or turnovers. By my eye test his skating is not 100% though - he will always "look slow", even at his best I guarantee you some people will still complain about how he slow he is - that much checks out but normally he's actually very fast in a straight line at least - didn't really seem so now though... For what it's worth since the since the 4 nations he's over P/GP all situations and has 50% GF and 50% xGF 5v5. Seems OK to me.

That shoot out goal was nice, I didn't know he can lift the puck backhand. Seriously though, he never seems to go for a backhand.

 

[Redux91]

30 pts in 40 games and 14PP goals good for 2nd in the entire league with everything that could possibly go wrong going wrong with preseason months long knee injury , covid and viruses, streaks and slumps
And NO SECOND LINE CENTER ffs lol

I honestly can't wait to see how much better it goes next year, and we're already fighting for a playoff spot status in the build

I get he frustrates tons of people, but I still think there's something there and we're better *with* him than without him
And honestly? It feels like I'm reading Kovalev posts ALL over with Patrik basically lol, you either love him or you hate him

I think some of it is people are afraid we throw a 8x8 at him but I don't think that's happening at all
It'll probably be something like 5 years X 7.5 or 7.7 or wtv
And i just wouldn't be upset with that at all

But let's SEE how it goes next year, for sure

 

[DAChampion]

It feels like I'm reading Kovalev posts ALL over with Patrik basically lol,

When Kovalev was here he was in his mid 30s carrying the first line, he averaged 65 points/82 games, including a full season where he suffered from vertigo, ...

And people wrote that he was lazy

 

[26Mats]

30 pts in 40 games and 14PP goals good for 2nd in the entire league with everything that could possibly go wrong going wrong with preseason months long knee injury , covid and viruses, streaks and slumps
And NO SECOND LINE CENTER ffs lol

I honestly can't wait to see how much better it goes next year, and we're already fighting for a playoff spot status in the build

I get he frustrates tons of people, but I still think there's something there and we're better *with* him than without him
And honestly? It feels like I'm reading Kovalev posts ALL over with Patrik basically lol, you either love him or you hate him

I think some of it is people are afraid we throw a 8x8 at him but I don't think that's happening at all
It'll probably be something like 5 years X 7.5 or 7.7 or wtv
And i just wouldn't be upset with that at all

But let's SEE how it goes next year, for sure

one thing though with Laine, is that to me he looks slower now than when I saw highlights of him in the past.

So if he isn't able to get his speed back to where it was, that will limit his production, ability to get in position on defense, etc...

So, I have to wait to see him next year before I talk about a contract I envision extending him to.

 

[Redux91]

one thing though with Laine, is that to me he looks slower now than when I saw highlights of him in the past.

So if he isn't able to get his speed back to where it was, that will limit his production, ability to get in position on defense, etc...

So, I have to wait to see him next year before I talk about a contract I envision extending him to.

2 of 3 Doctors told him to have knee surgery that would of cost him the entire year

Why does everyone keep forgetting that?

He's probably in some form of pain every single time he takes a stride..

 

[Halberdier]

I didn’t find him that good tbh.

Maybe if he finds the cure for cancer, some people would be content with a free (or minus 2nd row pick) guy that is playing pretty effectively with a knee support the game he loves, against the advice of doctors. All that on relatively low TOI on a line that has freaking Newhook pretending to be a proper 2C on NHL level, which he isn't (but could be a decent 3C or 4C on a contender).

 

[Lazytrout]

I am only writing about the last two games.
As I wrote in the thread, you can see that he doesn't have that much confidence in his hands in 5v5 which results in less than ideal passing, shooting. But what did MSL do with him? I specifically counted it, he wins most of the fights at the rim, uses his body. He only did that for us in times unknown to anyone during the holidays.
.

We can't say for sure without being in Laine's head, but we do know he had mental struggles before and from what I saw he might have been a cast off in the BJ's locker room.

So if I had to guess he's simply more engaged and motivated than in Columbus, whatever the reasons, habs locker room looks like a good fit for him.

Keep in mind he did look really lazy out there for stretches in Montreal too

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

2 of 3 Doctors told him to have knee surgery that would of cost him the entire year

Why does everyone keep forgetting that?

He's probably in some form of pain every single time he takes a stride..

It’s pretty crazy that people keep going on him about his effort levels still.

 

[ExReHabs]

2 of 3 Doctors told him to have knee surgery that would of cost him the entire year

Why does everyone keep forgetting that?

He's probably in some form of pain every single time he takes a stride..

Was this reported?

Am curious if he’ll require surgery after the season or not. It would derail his summer training, sadly.