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Player Discussion Patrik Laine: Part 2 - Healthy Living Edition

I don't think I've seen a player with more turnovers than Laine that game. Almost every shift he passed it right to the sens, even twice in one shift. Hard to justify a player that not only is slow but also gives away the puck.
 
The Great Weal said:
Lehkonen didn't have nearly as many chances in the top 6 and PP as Newhook has had. This is also ignoring everything else that Lehkonen brought that Newhook can't do.
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Not the point I was making, the complaints about Lehkonen was that he couldn't finish even when he had glorious opportunities. The exact same complaint being used for Newhook. Lack of finish does at times develop as a player gains experience, and sometimes it doesn't, only time will tell whether Newhook figures it out.
 
LaP said:
Byron was like that in Calgary
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Last night Mike Johnson was talking about how with Newhook it seems like his feet more faster than his hands/mind so he can get himself in great spots but can't finish (paraphrasing), and I immediately thought of the Breakaway Byron video on YouTube that was Byron in Calgary missing breakaway after breakaway after breakaway. I don't think Newhook has had as many breakaways, but the idea still stands the same that his speed is allowing him to create chances that he just can't seem to finish yet. Byron figured it out in his mid-late 20s, maybe Newhook will too.
 
Sorinth said:
The center doesn't have to be the guy that "runs" the line. If the 2nd line is Laine-Newhook-Demidov then I would fully expect Demidov to be the guy running the line.

Lehkonen had the same complaints about not being able to finish, sometimes players figure it out.
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I've been a byg advocate against this trade and still think we paid a little bit too much but i've come to like the player. He tries and i think in a middle six role on a better team he would look much better. I still prefer him at center personally but he needs to imrpove at the faceoff circle.
 
badfish said:
Last night Mike Johnson was talking about how with Newhook it seems like his feet more faster than his hands/mind so he can get himself in great spots but can't finish (paraphrasing), and I immediately thought of the Breakaway Byron video on YouTube that was Byron in Calgary missing breakaway after breakaway after breakaway. I don't think Newhook has had as many breakaways, but the idea still stands the same that his speed is allowing him to create chances that he just can't seem to finish yet. Byron figured it out in his mid-late 20s, maybe Newhook will too.
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One of my coach in junior was often saying that to guys who were skating fast but whose hands could not follow. He was stelling them that they were skating faster than their mind and had to slow down a bit before shooting and making a play closer to the net. I did not have this problem as i was uber slow like Roy.
 
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DAChampion said:
That's actually almost certainly a statistical fallacy due to not knowing Bayesian statistics.

The number of post-cap Cup winners is 20, not a big sample. If you go through dozens of advanced stats, you actually expect that some of them will give you better retroactive predictivity than e.g. standings due to luck and small numbers counts. That's a form of p-hacking actually, and similar to the look elsewhere effect. The more questions you ask, the more likely you are to get a spurious result just due to luck

This leaves aside the fact that playoff hockey is quite distinct from regular season hockey. There are fewer power plays, the backup goalies don't see ice time, there are no bad teams to beat up on, no 3on3 overtime, etc. It makes sense that a 5on5 statistic like corsi would be more reliable in the playoffs, but not because of voodo, rather it's because of the rule changes.
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Cool.

Find me a better predictor. I’ll wait.
 
Sorinth said:
The center doesn't have to be the guy that "runs" the line. If the 2nd line is Laine-Newhook-Demidov then I would fully expect Demidov to be the guy running the line.

Lehkonen had the same complaints about not being able to finish, sometimes players figure it out.
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I agree. I was hoping Newhook would get around 50 points this year. He’s not close. A lot of that can be blamed on linemates but he didn’t help himself either.

He absolutely could put it together. But in the meantime, he belongs in the bottom six.
 
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Lafleurs Guy said:
I agree. I was hoping Newhook would get around 50 points this year. He’s not close. A lot of that can be blamed on linemates but he didn’t help himself either.

He absolutely could put it together. But in the meantime, he belongs in the bottom six.
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So in the meantime who should be playing #2 C? Because sure this offseason we should be looking for a real top-6 C but in the meantime he's clearly the best option and if we are being honest there's a good chance that we will strike out in acquiring a good top-6 C this summer because they are hard to acquire.

And I would also point out Lehkonen would never have put it together if Colorado had buried him in the bottom six until he figured it out. So your logic is flawed.
 
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Lafleurs Guy said:
Cool.

Find me a better predictor. I’ll wait.
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Not sure if serious, but I'd be inclined to go with a weighted goal differential.

Reduce the weight of power play goals by 33%.
Reduce the weight of 3on3 goals by 100%.
Weigh the goal differential of individual games by how good the other team is.
Not sure if the weight of games early in the season should be reduced, but probably.
 
DAChampion said:
Not sure if serious,
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Yep.
DAChampion said:
but I'd be inclined to go with a weighted goal differential.

Reduce the weight of power play goals by 33%.
Reduce the weight of 3on3 goals by 100%.
Weigh the goal differential of individual games by how good the other team is.
Not sure if the weight of games early in the season should be reduced, but probably.
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Advanced stats have been found to be more predictive of cup winners than goal differential.

I was skeptical. Made all the arguments against. Argued against it for a good year or twoIt doesn’t seem that a fluid game like hockey can be analyzed that way. But I was shown the proof and I became a believer. Once I saw their predictive power that was enough. It’s not a crystal ball but it’s more than just chance.

That being said, there’s a lot more nuance to it when you apply it to individual players. Anyone playing with Hutson for example is going to get a huge bump. And if we look at Caufield with and without Suzuki he falls off a cliff. But that’s largely because the difference between Suzuki and our next best center is enormous. It’s not as simple as ‘this guy has a better Corsi number so he’s better…” but it’s an added tool for us to capture things we may not have otherwise been looking for.

Laine’s numbers before the tournament were atrocious. And that just backs up what we saw on the ice. His with/without really reinforced how bad he was and how he was killing his teammates even strength.
 
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417 said:
Yeah i'm convinced he's going to need some kind of surgery over the offseason to clean that knee up, so certainly don't think his mobility is all there.

Which makes the questioning of his effort level even more bizarre.

Dude could have called his season and collected his cheque on IR, but I keep hearing how he doesn't love hockey...
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Didn't he come out and admit he almost quit hockey a few years ago?

The whole lazy effort stuff isn't new either. He DOES appear lazy at times. I'm sure his knee is partly to blame but I think he still has another gear effort wise that MSL would like to see.

Regardless he's still killing it on the PP at least and we are better with him in the lineup. I hope another off season of hard training + playing with better linemates next year will unlock that extra gear
 
Lafleurs Guy said:
Newhook’s issue is that he can’t finish. He had a beautiful breakaway and couldn’t put it away. Misses the net a lot. Roy set him up and he couldn’t do anything with it.

He has talent but he can’t seem to put it together. Maybe he will in the future but he’s not someone I’d rely on to run the second line.
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You know what, that was the same problem according to many here of lekhonen .
No issue with that now.
Newhook good the soles , he looked great last few games at centre . Let’s be patient and once we will have a new second line c, newhook will become an elite 3rd liner
 
Hins77 said:
If we letting walk Laine at the end of the next season on free agent market. We gonna need immediately another top scorer. Good luck to find it. At a right price. I keep him. He is our all offense player like kessel or Marchessault. You don't want 10 players on that role in your club, but 1 is fine. Only his presence on the PP is useful.
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I don't think we'd have to go too long on term either.

Could see 4-5 if he has a good season next year. I doubt anyone would give him 6+
 
tazsub3 said:
You know what, that was the same problem according to many here of lekhonen .
No issue with that now.
Newhook good the soles , he looked great last few games at centre . Let’s be patient and once we will have a new second line c, newhook will become an elite 3rd liner
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I'm fine with that. I don't think this is his ceiling. But I also don't think we should rely on him for anything. With Dach being sidelined again, we need to find a legit number two pivot. Newhook can be a 3rd line player who can fill in on the top six when needed.
 
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the said:
When are we buying out Laine?
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Not being saddled with Dach is as much of a buff as playing with a knee brace is a debuff.

[I had to google “opposite of buff in gaming” to recall the term debuff. It’s been a long time since I’ve gamed]
 
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Resign Laine 3 years for $6.5 mil per. He is what he is that’s a 30-40 goal scorer when healthy. Had he started the season, he would have had 34 goals by now. Also our powerplay is more dangerous with him for that one timer. Plus he will help Demidov next year.
 
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Laboeuf said:
Resign Laine 3 years for $6.5 mil per. He is what he is that’s a 30-40 goal scorer when healthy. Had he started the season, he would have had 34 goals by now. Also our powerplay is more dangerous with him for that one timer. Plus he will help Demidov next year.
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I feel like neither side want to hastily re-sign.

We have the whole of next season to see how things fare. This was always the benefit of acquiring Laine — we wouldn’t be under the gun of a single season impression.
 
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