Player Discussion Patrik Laine: Part 2 - Healthy Living Edition

[Habs Halifax]

Anderson and Laine are similar.. they don’t always play with the same energy every shift but you can clearly see the extra gears in their game when they bring it!

Big boys that can play! Let’s not run these types out of town. They are needed

 

[Marioesque]

Still at it with the stats I see...lol

Laine has had decent block numbers before but it is not from intentionally sacrificing his body and/or laying out in front of clappers. He is usually stationary in the d zone in front of the opposing dman and often blocks with his stick or gets hit with shots due to being a big man.

He is hardly the top shot blocking forward on the team, far from it as he is pacing well below multiple forwards. I am sure it is a cherry picked, situational stat that Marinaro quoted but is easily debunked with the eye test which you somewhat conceded.

He had a good game tonight and showed a little more competitiveness and a lot more playmaking/facilitating. It wasn't all pretty but he wasn't a stationary one T robot and I could definitely live with this type of effort.

It's not easily debunked by eye test. That's the issue here. Eye test has clearly given us both false information, in fact Laine blocks more shots than the other forwards. I wouldn't have thought that before seeing the stat , and you still refuse it because it doesn't match what your preconceived notion is.

You can of course move goalposts and start talking about diving into shots, which isn't what the stat is about at all. Just like above.

I allow new information to change my views

 

[Rapala]

Love to see that Patrik has a heart beat. He's a complete handful when he moves his feet.
I gotta admit though I was scared when he cut back and drew that penalty going down in a heap.

 

[Hacketts]

Best game this season.

 

[BullLund]

Figured they would score on that 2-man rush with Newhook but it was not to be. Would've been a nice confidence boost for both guys, but this night was meant for the 3rd line to shine.

 

[Halberdier]

It's not easily debunked by eye test. That's the issue here. Eye test has clearly given us both false information, in fact Laine blocks more shots than the other forwards. I wouldn't have thought that before seeing the stat , and you still refuse it because it doesn't match what your preconceived notion is.

You can of course move goalposts and start talking about diving into shots, which isn't what the stat is about at all. Just like above.

I allow new information to change my views

I was amazed about the stats for hits and shot blocks for Laine even back in Winnipeg Jets. "Eye test" misses so much, while "stats don't care about your feelings".

Ultimately in my papers everything boils down to goals for vs. goals against in different situations, like 5-on-5. Even more so if you can be the difference maker for this stat when it matters the most, like in playoffs, or in key points of the game (game opening goals, tying goals, game winning goals etc.), though these stats aren't as easy to get.

We can look at Jim Corsi stats all day long, but their relevance to actual goals almost non-existent. There is a reason why Jim Corsi derived that stat, and it had nothing to do with deciding whether some skater is doing great or not. It was for measuring goalie fatique, and it was and still is great for that.

 

[Halberdier]

Figured they would score on that 2-man rush with Newhook but it was not to be. Would've been a nice confidence boost for both guys, but this night was meant for the 3rd line to shine.

Any team that can even dream of playoff success absolutely needs these stories where 3rd or 4th line carries the team every now and then. Star players like Laine can be the deciding factor between win or lose and they often are, but that's possible only if there is a Team with a big T to back them up.

So far the Habs season has been a Cinderella story since Laine's return. Let's hope that continues and enjoy the ride.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

It's not easily debunked by eye test. That's the issue here. Eye test has clearly given us both false information, in fact Laine blocks more shots than the other forwards. I wouldn't have thought that before seeing the stat , and you still refuse it because it doesn't match what your preconceived notion is.

You can of course move goalposts and start talking about diving into shots, which isn't what the stat is about at all. Just like above.

I allow new information to change my views

There is no moving of the goal post as I was simply providing context which everyone is so allergic to nowadays.

I can't go on with a silly conversation that claims that Laine is an effective defender when his current coach just literally said that he needs to be better in order to earn his trust. His previous coaches have all benched him for poor effort/defensive play.

I have Paul Maurice, Martin, St.Louis and John Tortorella on my side who have all won Cups and you have cherry picked stats that you rely on while leaving out the terrible stats......I don't think we will need to converse about anything ever again as I do not continue to engage with such tactics. I wish Laine the best and truly would love him to succeed on and off of the ice but that won't deter me from being objective and open to new realities and I hope he continues to thrill you with his every move as I am sure you will find a way to explain away the bad with a carefully redacted spread sheet....

 

[Essenege]

The line with Roy and Newhook is working. No goal but they’ve been controlling the play most shift.

Roy isn’t a long term solution on the second line but he has better hockey sense then Dach and did some good fast plays with the puck tonight. I still think there’s a Toffoli path for him in this league. With just average speed he’d be such a good player. A shame.

Newhook is better at center. You just see it’s more natural for him. KH is taking notes.

Laine looks like he cared a lot yesterday. Before saying he doesn’t have a 5v5 game I want to see another full season.

 

[WeThreeKings]

While the turnovers were still an issue.. this was his best game 5 on 5. Need to see more of that from him and cut down the hope plays through two sticks.

 

[DAChampion]

Newhook is better at center. You just see it’s more natural for him. KH is taking notes.

You know that's interesting.

When the Habs acquired Newhook from Colorado, the word was he was being wasted there as a center, and that he'd do better here as a winger.

Don't know if that was wrong or if he's just evolved.

 

[DAChampion]

We can look at Jim Corsi stats all day long, but their relevance to actual goals almost non-existent. There is a reason why Jim Corsi derived that stat, and it had nothing to do with deciding whether some skater is doing great or not. It was for measuring goalie fatique, and it was and still is great for that.

Is that fatigue in a single game or over a season?

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

We can look at Jim Corsi stats all day long, but their relevance to actual goals almost non-existent. There is a reason why Jim Corsi derived that stat, and it had nothing to do with deciding whether some skater is doing great or not. It was for measuring goalie fatique, and it was and still is great for that.

Advanced analytics are the best predictor of cup winners. More predictive than the standings or goal differential. There are limitations and you have to put them in context but they’re still useful.

Notice how people have started praising Struble who’s recently been paired with Hutson. Those same people are trashing Xehjac who’s paired with Savard. Who you play with matters a great deal. But at the end of the day, if you’re taking more shots than you’re giving up, you’re far more likely to be successful than not. It’s just common sense.

Hockey does not lend itself to individual stats the way baseball does. But the stats we have aren’t meaningless. They require some context.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

The line with Roy and Newhook is working. No goal but they’ve been controlling the play most shift.

Roy isn’t a long term solution on the second line but he has better hockey sense then Dach and did some good fast plays with the puck tonight. I still think there’s a Toffoli path for him in this league. With just average speed he’d be such a good player. A shame.

Newhook is better at center. You just see it’s more natural for him. KH is taking notes.

Laine looks like he cared a lot yesterday. Before saying he doesn’t have a 5v5 game I want to see another full season.

Newhook’s issue is that he can’t finish. He had a beautiful breakaway and couldn’t put it away. Misses the net a lot. Roy set him up and he couldn’t do anything with it.

He has talent but he can’t seem to put it together. Maybe he will in the future but he’s not someone I’d rely on to run the second line.

 

[DAChampion]

Advanced analytics are the best predictor of cup winners. More predictive than the standings or goal differential.

That's actually almost certainly a statistical fallacy due to not knowing Bayesian statistics.

The number of post-cap Cup winners is 20, not a big sample. If you go through dozens of advanced stats, you actually expect that some of them will give you better retroactive predictivity than e.g. standings due to luck and small numbers counts. That's a form of p-hacking actually, and similar to the look elsewhere effect. The more questions you ask, the more likely you are to get a spurious result just due to luck

This leaves aside the fact that playoff hockey is quite distinct from regular season hockey. There are fewer power plays, the backup goalies don't see ice time, there are no bad teams to beat up on, no 3on3 overtime, etc. It makes sense that a 5on5 statistic like corsi would be more reliable in the playoffs, but not because of voodo, rather it's because of the rule changes.

 

[Halberdier]

Is that fatigue in a single game or over a season?

The more corsi events against a goalie, the more he needs to react and move. Both on a single game and over a season.

Jim Corsi found out that shots on the net weren't accurate enough for deciding the goalie fatique as the goalie needs to react to every shot generally towards the general direction, and not only those that are counted as shots in NHL. There might be eg. 60 Corsi events that goalie needs to react to, even if only 20 of them made it towards the net. And on another day you could have 40 Corsi events but even 30 of those towards the net, the latter case being easier for the goalie in terms of fatique.

 

[DAChampion]

The more corsi events against a goalie, the more he needs to react and move. Both on a single game and over a season.

Jim Corsi found out that shots on the net weren't accurate enough for deciding the goalie fatique as the goalie needs to react to every shot generally towards the general direction, and not only those that are counted as shots in NHL. There might be eg. 60 Corsi events that goalie needs to react to, even if only 20 of them made it towards the net. And on another day you could have 40 Corsi events but even 30 of those towards the net, the latter case being easier for the goalie in terms of fatique.

Thank you.

But corsi is a 5on5 stat, wouldn't shots on the PP and 4on4 also cause fatigue?

So are you saying that a goalie is more likely to get tired and make mistakes, or more likely to get injured, or both, within a particular game with many corsi events?

 

[Hins77]

If we letting walk Laine at the end of the next season on free agent market. We gonna need immediately another top scorer. Good luck to find it. At a right price. I keep him. He is our all offense player like kessel or Marchessault. You don't want 10 players on that role in your club, but 1 is fine. Only his presence on the PP is useful.

 

[WeThreeKings]

If we letting walk Laine at the end of the next season on free agent market. We gonna need immediately another top scorer. Good luck to find it. At a right price. I keep him. He is our all offense player like kessel or Marchessault. You don't want 10 players on that role in your club, but 1 is fine. Only his presence on the PP is useful.

He's starting to buy in more to Marty's ask.. as long as his salary and term expectations are reasonable and he continues to do that, they'll retain him.

 

[Essenege]

Newhook’s issue is that he can’t finish. He had a beautiful breakaway and couldn’t put it away. Misses the net a lot. Roy set him up and he couldn’t do anything with it.

He has talent but he can’t seem to put it together. Maybe he will in the future but he’s not someone I’d rely on to run the second line.

Could be a 3c that can play up the lineup when guys are injured. But even for that role he has to play like yesterday on a consistent basis.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

I actually like the curl back play Laine does to create more time and space the problem is he always sauces it through the slot , just send it down low always and he will never turn it over

It's always the same turnover I'm sure they are showing it to him

 

[LaP]

If we letting walk Laine at the end of the next season on free agent market. We gonna need immediately another top scorer. Good luck to find it. At a right price. I keep him. He is our all offense player like kessel or Marchessault. You don't want 10 players on that role in your club, but 1 is fine. Only his presence on the PP is useful.

In 1999-2000 NJ was one of the best defensive team in the league led by both a GM and coach who were old school hockey guys. At the deadline when it was the time to improve the team instead of gunning for guys playing the right way they went for Malakhov and Molgilny. Lou was a good GM (key word is was) and he knew you could not win a cup without scoring goals.

 

[LaP]

Newhook’s issue is that he can’t finish. He had a beautiful breakaway and couldn’t put it away. Misses the net a lot. Roy set him up and he couldn’t do anything with it.

He has talent but he can’t seem to put it together. Maybe he will in the future but he’s not someone I’d rely on to run the second line.

Byron was like that in Calgary

 

[Marioesque]

I have Paul Maurice, Martin, St.Louis and John Tortorella on my side

Oh yeah, saying what?

 

[Sorinth]

Newhook’s issue is that he can’t finish. He had a beautiful breakaway and couldn’t put it away. Misses the net a lot. Roy set him up and he couldn’t do anything with it.

He has talent but he can’t seem to put it together. Maybe he will in the future but he’s not someone I’d rely on to run the second line.

The center doesn't have to be the guy that "runs" the line. If the 2nd line is Laine-Newhook-Demidov then I would fully expect Demidov to be the guy running the line.

Lehkonen had the same complaints about not being able to finish, sometimes players figure it out.