Player Discussion Patrik Laine: Part 2 - Healthy Living Edition

[Lafleurs Guy]

Laine is clearly a top-15 talent at the NHL level who is underperforming due to mental and physical issues.

This forum is currently discounting him due to a combination of cope and zero cost fallacy, but the fact is as recently as three weeks ago he was seen as a linchpin of the team, and compared to Kovalev from twenty years ago.

Not sure if you've seen my posts on him but I expected nothing. I said he'd probably get to 20 goals and anything beyond that was gravy. Part of that was that he was coming off shoulder surgery in addition to those other problems but he's proven it not to be a concern.

I give him a mulligan on the season. He got hurt before it started and joined halfway through. His real talent is his shot. It is at times unstoppable and I put a big premium on that. But he's had so many other issues that I just can't see counting on him.

The talent is there for sure. I'm just not sure he can put it all together. I don't see him as a core player.

You also expected nothing of Markov at the start of the 2013 season -- I remember. It was meaningless. Those Habs needed Markov, he provided, and he was gone the team soon went into a rebuild.

Yep. And if you want to go into the archive you'll find I was wrong on a ton of other things too. Markov was a big one - something I've admitted to repeatedly over the years. You'll see that I thought Chris Higgins was going to be a perpetual 40 goal guy and might even hit 50 one day... I wanted Shane Wright. I thought KK was going to be a good player. All true and all wrong.

I'm not sure what your point is here though. Is it that I could be wrong on Laine and that he might turn out to be elite for us? On that point I totally agree. Maybe he comes back next year and plays a lot better. I expect improvement from him actually. There's no way he should be this bad.

But there's a big difference between hoping for something and expecting it. I expect nothing from him. If he comes out and crushes it... great. But I wouldn't be signing him to anything until he shows what he can do next year. I don't count him as a core player at this point. I mean, we might not even re-sign him.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

It's fair to say that the team needs at least seven players, but it's ludicrous to assume that it has to be exactly those seven players. For every great team you have a few players that exceed expectations and a few that falter, as well as trades.

Those are the seven guys I think are going to be part of our core. But as you can see in the post above, my crystal ball has been broken before.

But sure, some could fall out and others could join. Hage, Fowler are two candidates that come to mind. Plus we have two firsts this year.... We're still relatively early in the rebuild.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Gotta love the zero sum game of comparing Dach and Laine. Hey maybe injuries/recovering from them are effecting BOTH of them. We know that’s allowed right? Doesn’t have to be either or.

Laine has displayed pretty high end playmaking. Dach has shown some great net driving. Don’t be shocked if both are significantly better next year

Yeah, some posters are trying to pit one against the other. I don't get it.

Both have faced the same issues this year. Both came back from injury and both got called lazy because of it. Dach had the advantage of extra time to improve. Fortunately, he's actually gotten better. Laine isn't there yet but that doesn't mean he won't be a lot better next year.

 

[Scriptor]

Can you tell me the name of the guy who draw the d-men's attention, free Laine up and then pass the puck to Laine for a one-timer in Columbus especially if he played right winger? Hint, he played worse with Gaudreau. Or a d-man. Hint, Werenski was often injured he even played only 13 games in 2022/23 season.

Btw, this line could be interesting. Laine had excellent chemistry with Chinakhov, a speed guy with excellent for/backchecking. Although Yegor is skilled. Speed Roslovic (btw, he is better winger) played center.

In that vein, the following line could be perfect for Laine:

Heineman - LW (speed guy with excellent forechecking/backchecking, plus good defensive awareness and a solid NHL shot as a decoy option)

Beck - C (speedy C who has also been known to play a bit mean, two way talent, excellent F/O skills to start with the puck more often, shutdown abilities against the best opposing players, and also has a good wrist shot to keep opponents guessing).

Laine - RW (He is what he is)

Beck has better offensive upside than Evans and will drive the play like Evans does because of his speed and N/S style of play. Laine can trail and be a menace once inside the O-zone.

Both Heineman and Beck can insulate Laine when it comes to defensive assignments.

 

[Ozmodiar]

Plenty of talk this season about Laine, Dach, Newhook, Slaf, and how good they are.

2 have looked good with Suzuki, but we won’t really know where they fit until there’s a quality 2nd line center.

CC - Suze - Demi
Slaf - ??? - Dach

In theory, this should work, but we don’t really know yet.

I feel it could all click if that spot was filled.

 

[Ozmodiar]

In that vein, the following line could be perfect for Laine:

Heineman - LW (speed guy with excellent forechecking/backchecking, plus good defensive awareness and a solid NHL shot as a decoy option)

Beck - C (speedy C who has also been known to play a bit mean, two way talent, excellent F/O skills to start with the puck more often, shutdown abilities against the best opposing players, and also has a good wrist shot to keep opponents guessing).

Laine - RW (He is what he is)

Beck has better offensive upside than Evans and will drive the play like Evans does because of his speed and N/S style of play. Laine can trail and be a menace once inside the O-zone.

Both Heineman and Beck can insulate Laine when it comes to defensive assignments.

Beck’s biggest deficiency might be his playmaking, so I’m not so sure he’s the best fit with our best sniper.

Having said that, the depth chart could dictate that outcome.

 

[DAChampion]

Those are the seven guys I think are going to be part of our core. But as you can see in the post above, my crystal ball has been broken before.

But sure, some could fall out and others could join. Hage, Fowler are two candidates that come to mind. Plus we have two firsts this year.... We're still relatively early in the rebuild.

Honestly I don't care that much about specific predictions. For example, whether you think Guhle or Reinbacher will be more valuable in three years, or Beck or Kappanen, or Newhook vs Roy, or Dobes vs Fowler. That stuff is hard. If you get it right 50% of the time you're doing splendidly.

I do care about general reasoning patterns, and your argument against Laine is irrational which is why I'm pointing it out. You're saying that since the Habs got him for free, it doesn't matter if he buys or rocks. That's a zero cost fallacy nonsense. Regardless of whether the Habs got him for free or for a 1st, the team benefits if he reaches his full potential, and misses it if he doesn't.

The Habs actually gave up more for Laine than they did for Hutson by the way, as they can certainly get a late 2nd for that much in cap space. Regardless, the team needs players to be the best they can be.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Plenty of talk this season about Laine, Dach, Newhook, Slaf, and how good they are.

2 have looked good with Suzuki, but we won’t really know where they fit until there’s a quality 2nd line center.

CC - Suze - Demi
Slaf - ??? - Dach

In theory, this should work, but we don’t really know yet.

I feel it could all click if that spot was filled.

My guess is it will be:

CC Suzuki Slaf
Demidov Dach Laine

 

[Scriptor]

This rebuild is in awful shape of each of Dach, Newhook, and Laine don't workout.

Not really as long as one pans out better than average -- and we all know that won't be Newhook, regardless.

I count that one as a failed project, but a decent place holder that could still be worse as we wait for real players to step up.

Even if both Dach and Laine pan out, it won't be at C for Dach, IMO, and we still need a real NHL 2C for the short to medium term -- perhaps even the long term, depending what C we grab in 2025 and how Hage pans out (could only be a winger at the NHL level).

Then, we have Kapanen who could surprise as a really good two-way, 3C, but Beck is also in the same mold, maybe with more of a mean streak. Both will be competing for the same spot at C in the lineup and, if Kapanen proves better than Beck, I don't think that Beck will be satisfied by becoming a 4th C, nor do I think that he should. One of those two ends up on wing, or is used as trade bait.

Best case/most realistic hopeful scenario, right now, IMO, for this rebuild is that both Dach and Laine pan out and Hage becomes a top-line winger, with Hughes getting a 1A, 1B situation at C from outside the organization. A real top-9 with fire power would be possible, rolling out three lines at similar TOI between 16 and 17 minutes, with specialty team usage included, leaving around 10 minutes a game for a well-rested, energy 4th line that can ramp it up during their more limited ice time:

Salfkovsky - XXX - Demidov
Caufield - Suzuki - Dach
Heineman - Beck/Kapanen - Laine
XXX - XXX - XXX

 

[Ozmodiar]

My guess is it will be:

CC Suzuki Slaf
Demidov Dach Laine

I figure they were giving Dach this full season to prove himself as a 2C. That hasn’t happened.

It’s a core piece, so they can’t keep waiting.

 

[Scriptor]

My guess is it will be:

CC Suzuki Slaf
Demidov Dach Laine

I'm just not a fan of Demidov's development if it is alongside a player still trying to find their identity and bolster their chances of staying in the lineup with Dach in a last chance scenario at C. Laine being a drag, defensively, on the line won't help Demidov express himself as creatively on the offense side of things.

Special players should play with established NHLers, not projects, IMO.

But, then, that same thing applies to Slafkovsky, not just to Demidov.

I'd just rather Hughes find a bonafide 2C, at least for the short term and not make it a case of determining who it would hurt less NOT to play with Suzuki.

That way, both Slafkovsky and Demidov's development would be better assured. I could deal with Laine being on a line with Demidov and a bonafide 2C because of Laine's elite shot as an option for Demidov at even strength, but a more consistent winger who plays LW would be better so Demidov could play RW as he does right now.

I figure they were giving Dach this full season to prove himself as a 2C. That hasn’t happened.

It’s a core piece, so they can’t keep waiting.

Demidov might end up playing C once he has adapted to playing at the NHL level if Hughes can't get a bonafide 2C outside the organization or through a lottery pick at the draft.

 

[DAChampion]

I'm just not a fan of Demidov's development if it is alongside a player still trying to find their identity and bolster their chances of staying in the lineup with Dach in a last chance scenario at C. Laine being a drag, defensively, on the line won't help Demidov express himself as creatively on the offense side of things.

There are more options if it is not assumed that Caulfield - Suzuki - Slaf are a sacred trio.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Honestly I don't care that much about specific predictions. For example, whether you think Guhle or Reinbacher will be more valuable in three years, or Beck or Kappanen, or Newhook vs Roy, or Dobes vs Fowler. That stuff is hard. If you get it right 50% of the time you're doing splendidly.

I do care about general reasoning patterns, and your argument against Laine is irrational which is why I'm pointing it out. You're saying that since the Habs got him for free, it doesn't matter if he buys or rocks. That's a zero cost fallacy nonsense. Regardless of whether the Habs got him for free or for a 1st, the team benefits if he reaches his full potential, and misses it if he doesn't.

Uh no.

I argued BEFORE we took him that we shouldn't spend any assets to get him. My worry with him surrounded physical and mental health. Secondly I'm not 'against' the guy. I just don't see him as a core part of our future.

It's not that I think he's not a core guy because we got him for zero assets. It's that we got him for zero assets because of health issues. And health issues are why I don't see him as part of the core.

The Habs actually gave up more for Laine than they did for Hutson by the way, as they can certainly get a late 2nd for that much in cap space. Regardless, the team needs players to be the best they can be.

Did they? I don't think so. In each case we gave up a young blueliner. In both cases we got a pick back. And in Laine's case we absorbed a huge cap hit. With Hutson it was player for pick.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I'm just not a fan of Demidov's development if it is alongside a player still trying to find their identity and bolster their chances of staying in the lineup with Dach in a last chance scenario at C. Laine being a drag, defensively, on the line won't help Demidov express himself as creatively on the offense side of things.

Special players should play with established NHLers, not projects, IMO.

But, then, that same thing applies to Slafkovsky, not just to Demidov.

I'd just rather Hughes find a bonafide 2C, at least for the short term and not make it a case of determining who it would hurt less NOT to play with Suzuki.

Good point. And it won't surprise me if that's what Hughes does in the offseason.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I figure they were giving Dach this full season to prove himself as a 2C. That hasn’t happened.

It’s a core piece, so they can’t keep waiting.

That's true. And I think we've now gone two years in a row where we thought Dach was the guy but injuries got in the way.

I love the player. I still think he can have a great future with us. But it's clear we can't depend on him to be the number two center. It may still work out that way but we need to add some depth top six players.

 

[the]

Iirc it was Gainey in his short stint after firing Carbo who put Georges Laraque with Kovalev and Koivu on the first line. It was surreal lol.

To be fair to Uncle Bob, he also presented us with the best trio I've witnessed since I'm a Habs fan in Tanguay-Koivu-Kovalev. It's too bad it was short lived but they were all producing at a ridiculous pace.

Something I've been advocating with Laine. Put all your best players together. Go crazy with a 1st line of Caufield-Suzuki-Laine.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

To be fair to Uncle Bob, he also presented us with the best trio I've witnessed since I'm a Habs fan in Tanguay-Koivu-Kovalev. It's too bad it was short lived but they were all producing at a ridiculous pace.

Something I've been advocating with Laine. Put all your best players together. Go crazy with a 1st line of Caufield-Suzuki-Laine.

Laine is not better than a lot of guys right now. His 5 on 5 numbers are in the bottom 20 players in the league. Newhook, Dach and Slaf are all playing better hockey.

Right now Laine is a PP specialist. A very good one. But when he’s on the ice at 5 on 5 he’s killing plays. I think it makes a lot more sense to play him in the bottom six while he finds his game.

Next year? Different story. Hopefully by then he’s found his game.

 

[Marioesque]

Laine is not better than a lot of guys right now. His 5 on 5 numbers are in the bottom 20 players in the league. Newhook, Dach and Slaf are all playing better hockey.

I don't know about Newhook and Dach, Slaf had a good game last time.
From my perspective, Laine CAN play with better players and be more successful with his ice time than he can with lesser players in small roles. Any player works like this. So if you want the maximum out of Laine at the moment, at least it should be considered that he'd be tested with similar talents and MORE ice time.

Right now Laine is a PP specialist. A very good one. But when he’s on the ice at 5 on 5 he’s killing plays. I think it makes a lot more sense to play him in the bottom six while he finds his game.

He was making most of the plays and keeping plays alive in his line for 4 nations, with better supporting cast around. And this was last week, not ancient history. So why did it work at a higher level of competition, but in MTL his best results would come in 4th line role?

I've seen Laine have bad corsi numbers and I've seen him have ridiculously good ones, depending on the line. I'd rather try to find a way to get more out of him than bury him down the lineup.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I don't know about Newhook and Dach, Slaf had a good game last time.
From my perspective, Laine CAN play with better players and be more successful with his ice time than he can with lesser players in small roles. Any player works like this. So if you want the maximum out of Laine at the moment, at least it should be considered that he'd be tested with similar talents and MORE ice time.

The problem with Laine is that he drags his linemates down. As I posted earlier, Newhook and Dach are like 5 points better without Laine than with him.

Moreover, I’d rather Slaf stay with those guys. I think he’s more important to our future than Laine is.

He was making most of the plays and keeping plays alive in his line for 4 nations, with better supporting cast around. And this was last week, not ancient history. So why did it work at a higher level of competition, but in MTL his best results would come in 4th line role?

Did he though? I didn’t think he was all that dominant.

I've seen Laine have bad corsi numbers and I've seen him have ridiculously good ones, depending on the line. I'd rather try to find a way to get more out of him than bury him down the lineup.

He’s still recovering. Still hasn’t found his game. He’s killing whatever line he’s on.

I don’t think putting him higher up now makes sense. Next year? Sure.