Ok, based on their projections, they've all pretty much stagnated from last year (withstanding Handzus obviously).
Statistically, they've all stagnated. But overall as hockey players they haven't. Brown and Kopitar have taken leadership roles and both are better defensively this year than last. Neither thing can be said about O'Sullivan and that's where I see the difference...Brown and Kopitar have improved overall and O'Sullivan hasn't.
If you go back to my original post, I wasn't against trading O'Sullivan, it the return that bothered me. O'Sullivan could play Murray's style, it just remained to be seen if he could progress with that system. We'll never know.
Crawford was also the coach Murray wanted at one point.
Maybe you're right about the return, it's too early to tell. But let me ask you this: if you met with a dr who said that his legs were 100% healed and he would have NO lingering effects AT ALL, would that change your mind about the return DL got?
Crawford sort of what, but if you've talked to DL you can tell it wasn't that long before he thought Crawford wasn't the right guy. Also, they were brought in for very different reasons. Crawford was brought in to win now with a hodge-podge of players...Murray was brought in to develop youth.
Ok, if he doesn't get a lot better he won't be earning his $6.8M/yr salary next year. That's not bashing him it's just what it is. If anything, it's bashing Dead for signing him to that contract.
My point was more how everyone was trashing on O'Sullivan when he's not the only one struggling.
Fair enough and I agree with you on Kopitar.
"At worst, I'd say he's plateaued." - how a guy who 2 years ago had 33g/34a to 3 goals this year has plateaued sounds like a proclamation of that.
Or "Me too but I'll settle for 05-06 Williams"
But he's only plateaued because of injuries. IF he's healthy, he won't have plateaued. Keep in mind that he was still playing his way back to normal when he scored only 3 goals AND he didn't have a center to play with. I know you said you don't think doctors are reliable, but the entire sports industry relies on them for their multi-billion dollar industry, so I'm not willing to ignore them.
If you can't understand that a coaches' system can affect a players progression, than there's no point of debating this. There are tons of examples of this happening. That doesn't mean a GM shouldn't trade the player if he doesn't fit in with the system, but Sully wasn't given ample time to show he could.
Then we'll just have to disagree. I think O'Sullivan was given ample time to show what he's capable of developing into. If you've ever had employees work for you, you can tell within the first few years what they're capable of and how hard they'll work to succeed. IMO, DL is pretty sure he knows what O'Sullivan is capable of and wasn't impressed enough to keep him. And neither was Stanley Cup winning Jim Rutherford.
Williams HAS played since his 2 good seasons, and he did take a step backward in his ability to perform. Based on your statements about O'Sullivan, it's obvious Williams is too old to develop anymore of course.
Ok good, so you've agreed Williams has regressed.
You're ignoring the reason why Williams has taken a step backward: injuries...injuries that can heal...injuries that doctors say have healed.
Because I see his struggles as being snake-bit. If he wasn't even getting chances, then I'd be more skeptical, but that's not the case.
Then again, we just disagree. I don't see it as being snake-bit and I don't think Lombardi and Murray do either. And if Jim Rutherford saw it the way you did, why in the world wouldn't he have kept him instead of flipping him for Cole? If O'Sullivan is so talented and it's just dumb luck, why not keep him?
Funny how this is a negative against O'Sullivan but your exact argument applies to Williams. You're COUNTING on him getting healthy and back to 2 years ago, without any reason other than your argument's sake.
That's only because you don't accept that doctors know anything. I'm COUNTING on the doctors being right. That's entirely different than counting on O'Sullivan.
Are medical experts never wrong? Williams' past injuries may be deemed "healthy" now, but history doesn't agree with you when a player has 2 major knee reconstructions and an Achilles injury.
They are very rarely wrong about ACL, MCL, and Achilles injuries. Those are very basic simple injuries that are 99% about preventing infections and then rehabbing properly. There is almost nothing doctors make judgments about with them.
Ok. O'Sullivan was struggling but he's not given the benefit of the doubt to "get back to normal" as in last year's form but William's is? Umm, ok.
It's not a GM's job to give players the benefit of the doubt. It's the GM's job to evaluate whether a player can develop into the type of player that GM wants. DL knows O'Sullivan better than you or I do and certainly knows MUCH better whether he thinks O'Sullivan can develop the way he needs him to. From what I can see, DL didn't he would. On the flip slide, DL knows a ton about Williams and whether is ALREADY has developed into the player he needs. It's pretty safe to say he has concluded Williams has done that. Then the only question is his health and you've just gotta leave that to the doctors. I hated the McCauley and Cloutier deals at the time they were made, but I'd bet you the world that DL learned from those and has done even more to look into Williams' health. Based on what Hammond wrote, an argument could be made that his overcautiousness in reviewing the medical records the on Tuesday instead of pulling the trigger on the deal right then cost him the 2nd rounder.
Quarterbacks don't compare well to the NHL game, but Tom Brady didn't tear both ACLs/MCLs, an Achilles, and break his hand.
I agree the games don't compare, but the players' ability to return and play effectively sure does. And for the record, Brady tore both his ACL and MCL in one knee. The MCL is the serious injury...a torn ACL and achilles is just about having a successful surgery, no complications, and rehabbing like a madman. The broken hand is of little concern. If you dropped guys with broken hands you'd have dropped Chris Pronger in 2002...
Williams also has a history of injuries and underachievement. Crap shoot I guess.
"Underachievement?" I just don't get where you're coming from on that. What was your expectation of him that he underachieved?
Why would the Canes GM come out and say anything differently when he's trying to trade said injured player?
...it was after the trade...
If you don't think opposing sports doctors disagree, let me just redirect you to your Patriots point earlier and see Tom Brady.
What's there to direct me to? I'm a HUGE Patriots fan and I never saw anything about them disagreeing. The Patriots didn't like that Brady went to his own dr, it's not that they, or their dr, disagreed with his dr.
So you seem to like stats. Any stats to back up that claim?
If the odds are that O'Sullivan is done developing, then so is Williams, and due to his regression (as you admitted) and likeliness of recurrent injuries, we're stuck with a marginal player as well.
I don't have them at hand but there is ALOT written on the subject. For most players it's their 3rd year but for some it's their 4th. You can read almost any good fantasy hockey magazine and they'll publish a looooong list of players for whom that is true.
I think you misunderstood what I was saying. I'm not saying players stop developing by their 4th pro year. I'm saying they show what they're capable of by their 4th pro year, there's a BIG difference.
But in case that's not what you meant...
Although I have no clue what O'Sullivan's odds of developing has to do with Williams' odds of developing. But even if I agreed he's done and is "only" a 30/30 guy...I'm ok with that...and I'm ok having given up O'Sullivan and a 2nd. Brenden Morrow and Tomas Holmstrom are about that and I'd have traded O'Sullivan and a 2nd for either of them at age 27.
I phrased that wrong first of all. Winning teams trade youth for established talent all the time. Those are moves to put good teams over the top.
Ok then, I thought you meant trading an excellent young player for an injured veteran.
However, you never see a successful franchise trade a (JUST TURNED) 24 year old AND a 2nd round pick for a guy who's been pretty beat up already AND is currently recovering from major surgery.
That throwing in the 2nd is SUCH ABSOLUTE CRAP! Where did Dean go to law school again? Bend Me Over U? Jesus.
That's gonna take some digging. It's pretty hard to find the EXACT same scenario of a just turned 24 yrs old and a 2nd rounder being traded for a guy who's beat up and recovering from major surgery. When you put it that way, it's pretty hopeless to find a comparison. But I'll give it some thought and see what I can come up with. Would you accept the Canes trading a healthy 22 yr old Ladd for a beat up and constantly injured Ruutu, coming off multiple concussions?
He got worse? He's only 16 points of his pace last year with 20 games left, and he's hardly gotten any PP time. Blah, blah. Play away from the puck. Blah. The effort has been there most nights, and he's still producing at a decent rate.
I mean seriously, is his "drop off" any worse than Kopitar's before this surge?
O'Sullivan should have taken a jump in his 4th pro season, instead he regressed. Excuse it any way you'd like but he has regressed. And as someone else pointed out, he gets PLENTY of PP time. If the effort was there often enough, he'd have anchored the 1st line.
And as I've said, I expect 21 yr old Kopitar to be more inconsistent than 24 yr old O'Sullivan.
He would? I doubt it. No way to prove it one way or the other but I will say this...the guy was traded for Danny Markov. Make of that what you will.
Are you implying that Markov wasn't very good? He was one of the top defensive Dmen at the time. He did a great job for the Flyers when he was there.
There's a reason why the Canes traded Williams, and I think the slick used car salesmen just got sold a lemon, and paid EXTRA to do so.
Yeah and Jim Rutherford said what it was. They need production NOW to make a push for the playoffs NOW. It's EXACTLY like the Johnson-Gleason trade: they wanted someone NOW and didn't want to wait. Williams wasn't going to do that and neither was O'Sullivan...they think Cole is. I'm not so sure about that, or the philosophy but who am I to argue with a GM who's won a Cup?
