SuperGenius
For Duty & Humanity!
- Mar 18, 2008
- 4,639
- 199
Past the halfway point and only 3 points out
- Thread starter CAMSANITY
- Start date
From Dan P at The Cannon:
http://www.jacketscannon.com/2013/3/18/4118384/why-the-blue-jackets-wont-make-the-playoffs
This links to an excellent analysis of where the Jackets are in relation to the playoffs, including a very helpful graph. I agree with his conclusion that its not really as good as a quick view of he current standings might make it appear. And, like some in the comments section, I still plan to enjoy the ride for as long as it lasts! Worst case? We've enjoyed the best CBJ hockey in many years and we still figure to add one or more quality prospects at the draft.
http://www.jacketscannon.com/2013/3/18/4118384/why-the-blue-jackets-wont-make-the-playoffs
This links to an excellent analysis of where the Jackets are in relation to the playoffs, including a very helpful graph. I agree with his conclusion that its not really as good as a quick view of he current standings might make it appear. And, like some in the comments section, I still plan to enjoy the ride for as long as it lasts! Worst case? We've enjoyed the best CBJ hockey in many years and we still figure to add one or more quality prospects at the draft.
cbjgirl
Just thinking
I don't think we make it in completely on our own (if we do make the playoffs). I am enjoying the ride.
We would need help from the division leaders. Have they gotten their stuff together as well? If the top 4 or 6 teams in the West are doing well and beating those below them and not giving up freebie points (to anyone other than us
) then our chances improve.
The Sports Club Stats site is a good one. The author in the blog Pete mentioned had the CBJ at 7.8%, for the record that is up from nearly dead in water a couple of weeks ago.
Link for those that want it: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western.html
We would need help from the division leaders. Have they gotten their stuff together as well? If the top 4 or 6 teams in the West are doing well and beating those below them and not giving up freebie points (to anyone other than us
) then our chances improve.The Sports Club Stats site is a good one. The author in the blog Pete mentioned had the CBJ at 7.8%, for the record that is up from nearly dead in water a couple of weeks ago.
Link for those that want it: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western.html
Dr. Fire
What, me worry?
I don't think we make it in completely on our own (if we do make the playoffs). I am enjoying the ride.
We would need help from the division leaders. Have they gotten their stuff together as well? If the top 4 or 6 teams in the West are doing well and beating those below them and not giving up freebie points (to anyone other than us
The Sports Club Stats site is a good one. The author in the blog Pete mentioned had the CBJ at 7.8%, for the record that is up from nearly dead in water a couple of weeks ago.
Link for those that want it: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western.html
That site is pretty eye opening. The Rangers have the same amount of points as us yet still have almost a 50% chance to make the play-offs.
Everyone here has been pretty realistic about our chances. Sure, in other threads we have discussed a lot of what-ifs, but we all pretty much see the writing on the wall with the upcoming road schedule.
The consensus has been to enjoy this run while it lasts.
Robert
Foligno family
Without reading the article is all one has to do is consider what it will take to go from one game under .500 to 4 games or more above .500... That's what it's going to take to come close to the 8th seed.. A 5 or 6 two point winning streak would get them real close..
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An Observation
Beginning of the the season:
Most articles, opinions, blogs deal with the Blue Jackets finishing in the basement. Most significant question, who do they take with the first pick?
Middle of the season:
Most articles, opinions, blogs deal with the Blue Jackets recent surge and how it is due simply to the unsustainable efforts of one Sergei Bobovsky. They cannot make the play offs. Most significant question, when does the slide begin and how close to the bottom do they end up?
End of the season:
????
Beginning of the the season:
Most articles, opinions, blogs deal with the Blue Jackets finishing in the basement. Most significant question, who do they take with the first pick?
Middle of the season:
Most articles, opinions, blogs deal with the Blue Jackets recent surge and how it is due simply to the unsustainable efforts of one Sergei Bobovsky. They cannot make the play offs. Most significant question, when does the slide begin and how close to the bottom do they end up?
End of the season:
????
Robert
Foligno family
Good way to look at it, I was looking at our OT/SO games and total one goal games last night.. it's quite amazing how close we might have come had Bob been playing as he is now from the beginning... I doubt the CBJ make it but at least we are talking about the real possibility instead of who we pick first in the draft.. The next 7 games will probably clear things up for the most part..
I for one am 7.8% optimistic and 92.2% enjoying the one hell of a ride and 100% satisfied with the way the season is going.
MattTheMask
Cbus for life!
Highly, highly recommend this article for all. Great, objective read. Especially for those that believe this "playoff push" is worth losing a top pick. In my opinion, this isn't a playoff team in the least bit. Bob has caught lightning in a bottle. This team still cant score goals. Not trying to be Debbie downer, just being realistic.
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-p...jackets-playoff-push-real-131807394--nhl.html
Great line here "it's going to cost them is a good chance of winning a draft lottery they would probably like desperately to win."
Just my 2 cents on it. But seriously, read the article.
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-p...jackets-playoff-push-real-131807394--nhl.html
Great line here "it's going to cost them is a good chance of winning a draft lottery they would probably like desperately to win."
Just my 2 cents on it. But seriously, read the article.
Double-Shift Lasse
Just post better
How come nobody ever prefaces "just being realistic" with "Not trying to be all sunshine and roses..."? IMO, "just being realistic" is a BS way of saying "my opinion is better than yours."
As to the quote you highlight... I think the same has been said here like a thousand times. So, in your opinion, what should we do about it? Root for the CBJ to lose?
1857 Howitzer
******* Linesman
Sorry but that story was about 70% pure junk IMO and the last line makes me want to punch the author in the face.
MattTheMask
Cbus for life!
Never said my opinion was better. I guess I will work on my phrasing next time ......
All Im saying is, CBJ really need a Top 3 pick more than being the 8th seed and get swept in the first round. Take that as you want.
But isn't that the point, to get a high draft pick. So much more important than, you know, winning.
Heinze 57
Registered User
I rooted for us to lose and get the #1 pick last year and it didn't work out. I'm never rooting for the CBJ to tank again.
Would I love to have one of these prospects we've heard so much about? Sure, but I think you get something out of winning and playing meaningful games late in the season, especially with a young roster where each game can be a teaching moment. We'll probably miss the playoffs with this group, but I don't think they were ever set up to be the worst team in the league. It just wasn't going to happen this year unless we finally get a lucky bounce in the lottery, which would be a first.
And that said, there's no guarantee that the #1 pick will become a franchise player. Look at Edmonton. Their #1's are still young, but they're not exactly setting the world on fire. We'll get three solid pros out of the first round, Boone Jenner will be up next year, so will Ryan Murray and we'll be ready to compete in the new division right away.
Now, we also have defensive depth that we can use to make moves at the NHL level. There's more promise after these 29 games than just the #1 pick we all thought was coming for us.
Would I love to have one of these prospects we've heard so much about? Sure, but I think you get something out of winning and playing meaningful games late in the season, especially with a young roster where each game can be a teaching moment. We'll probably miss the playoffs with this group, but I don't think they were ever set up to be the worst team in the league. It just wasn't going to happen this year unless we finally get a lucky bounce in the lottery, which would be a first.
And that said, there's no guarantee that the #1 pick will become a franchise player. Look at Edmonton. Their #1's are still young, but they're not exactly setting the world on fire. We'll get three solid pros out of the first round, Boone Jenner will be up next year, so will Ryan Murray and we'll be ready to compete in the new division right away.
Now, we also have defensive depth that we can use to make moves at the NHL level. There's more promise after these 29 games than just the #1 pick we all thought was coming for us.
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Robert
Foligno family
It was a cutting article, Lambert said this 10 game point streak is luck.. I will admit a few CBJ goals during the streak have been luck but the streak itself has not been based on luck.. The team has played a smothering type of hockey that has led to most of those points, combined with Bob playing the best hockey of his career; the CBJ have earned a 6-0-4 record..
It's true the odds of making the post season are slim but why start losing on purpose to get a particular draft pick? That does not make sense to me.. Lambert also forgot to mention the possibility of a new culture in the organization and room since the top management changed...
If the CBJ keep winning to the point where the 8th seed is a realistic possibility I hope JD and JK do all they can to get us into the playoffs... The playoffs would be fun not to mention the extra revenue the organization will earn by doing so…
I love how in the very unlikely event that this team makes the playoffs, the received wisdom is that they'll get swept in the first round. And also how that's not good for anything.
If this team makes the playoffs, they might win a game. or a series. Who knows? And if they lose a first round series 3-4, that means it's not worth it? Tell that to the Arena district. Even with a sweep, which is not foreordained, a lot of good will come from a playoff appearance both for team and for the fans.
If this team makes the playoffs, they might win a game. or a series. Who knows? And if they lose a first round series 3-4, that means it's not worth it? Tell that to the Arena district. Even with a sweep, which is not foreordained, a lot of good will come from a playoff appearance both for team and for the fans.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, you really need to love these Jackets because that's the team you're going to see next year. There may be some tweaks but what you see is what you get.
Whoever is drafted will not be on the squad next year, they are going to be seasoned and developed, no more draft saviors. I wouldn't even bet on Jenner, probably starts in SPR.
The Lambert article was not serious analysis, and we shouldn't expect anything different from PuckDaddy, which is like the HuffingtonPost of hockey sites (i.e. more interested in strong arguments than good arguments, page views than knowledge). I think he understates the odds of us getting in and makes his case by using the most unfavorable assumptions possible.
The way this team plays we might go 9-2-8, which would get us 54 points, which (realistically) should be enough given that there is no interconference play to raise the bar in the West.
I'm not saying this is likely, maybe only a 20% chance, but thats fine by me. You play to win, unless you're really bad. Lambert also writes that we are giving up a good chance of winning the draft lottery, which is not true. Even if we tank from here on, we can't tank faster than Florida, and probably not Colorado or Buffalo. It leaves with a 10% chance of winning the lottery, which doesn't justify the costs of losing.
The way this team plays we might go 9-2-8, which would get us 54 points, which (realistically) should be enough given that there is no interconference play to raise the bar in the West.
I'm not saying this is likely, maybe only a 20% chance, but thats fine by me. You play to win, unless you're really bad. Lambert also writes that we are giving up a good chance of winning the draft lottery, which is not true. Even if we tank from here on, we can't tank faster than Florida, and probably not Colorado or Buffalo. It leaves with a 10% chance of winning the lottery, which doesn't justify the costs of losing.
Double-Shift Lasse
Just post better
Apologies for singling you out. That phrase, not your specific use of it, bugs me. Implies one opinion is somehow superior to another. Who knows what the hell is realistic with this team? Rant off.
Robert
Foligno family
Barring a significant point streak it's looking as if Kevin Dineen is going to get the best chance of drafting first along with the realization that the oldest team in the league may not be the way to go in the future...
Columbus Mike
2015-16 CBJ
- Feb 21, 2008
- 1,332
- 460
One of the most important things in sports is learning how to win. This team is doing just that, a complete reversal of the implosions we saw so often during the first two months of last year. If this winning results in us finishing out of the playoffs and too high for a top-five pick, so be it.
