Part XVII: Phoenix -- This Thread Title Available For Lease

[OthmarAmmann]

Not sure if anyone has seen this yet.

Summary of Cost-Benefit Analysis of Coyotes Agreement
Glendale Benefits of Coyotes Agreement

I attached the pdf to this post but if there's issues, see link below:

http://www.goldwaterinstitute.org/case/3200

Look for "Public Records - Financial Analysis of Deal Commissioned by City" under Case Docs

... looks as if GWI posted this to their site on Monday.

Somebody's going to give the city $197 mm interest free? That's awfully nice of them.

 

[goyotes]

For what it is worth, the Phoenix Business Journal just reported the deal is set to close in about a week.

I'm not saying I believe it. I'm just posting what the Journal reported. Looks like the final hold up is getting all the bonds sold.

 

[Whileee]

Not sure if anyone has seen this yet.

Summary of Cost-Benefit Analysis of Coyotes Agreement
Glendale Benefits of Coyotes Agreement

I attached the pdf to this post but if there's issues, see link below:

http://www.goldwaterinstitute.org/case/3200

Look for "Public Records - Financial Analysis of Deal Commissioned by City" under Case Docs

... looks as if GWI posted this to their site on Monday.

I sure hope that the City of Glendale didn't actually pay for this "cost-benefit analysis" of the Coyotes-Glendale deal. It is downright laughable.

Some examples:

Cost: $100 million one-time fee -- (no mention of the costs of acquiring the $100 million).

Benefit: $251.7 million Parking Revenue Cash Flow -- (What, over 200 years??? Besides, there is no reason to believe that Glendale could not have kept some of the parking cash flow anyway, particularly for the non-Coyotes events).

Cost: $24.4 million for Extended management fee beyond 2016 --- (please explain why it will cost $97 million to operate the arena for the next 5.5 years, and then only $24.4 million for the remainder of the lease).

There is an interesting line about the City recovering the $25 million from the NHL. That is the first I have seen this put in writing.

 

[JetFan4Ever]

For what it is worth, the Phoenix Business Journal just reported the deal is set to close in about a week.

I'm not saying I believe it. I'm just posting what the Journal reported. Looks like the final hold up is getting all the bonds sold.

I know nothing about bonds. However, shouldn't the sale be listed somewhere if they are currently trying to sell them?

I'm sure the people who are familiar with bonds can answer.

 

[Whileee]

For what it is worth, the Phoenix Business Journal just reported the deal is set to close in about a week.

I'm not saying I believe it. I'm just posting what the Journal reported. Looks like the final hold up is getting all the bonds sold.

Link?

 

[Alan Jackson]

Link?

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2011/01/07/coyotes-sale-set-to-close-in-mid-january.html

 

[MaskedSonja]

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2011/01/07/coyotes-sale-set-to-close-in-mid-january.html

Answers my question on what will be said on the 15th- "We expect final closure of the sale is imminent" (those are my guess on the words, not what's been quoted) however:

I'm going to be curious: What is defined as A "closing" the deal? BoG approving MH? MH getting his 100 mil (which CoG has said it wants the bonds sold first-or are they backtracking?) Final sale/signed/sealed/delivered see you in five years sale of team and lease agreement?

Or is this just the step that CoG is going to have to take which they know GWI is going to ge involved, and get 2011 started with some good ole litigation?

Wow, so they seem to think the bond financing (which we've debated could take a VERY long time) is going to happen in a week? And the assumption that the bond sale "fixes" everything (no mention of GWI I note)


I'd have to say I'm skeptical....

 

[goyotes]

Answers my question on what will be said on the 15th- however:

I'm going to be curious: What is defined as A "closing" the deal? BoG approving MH? MH getting his 100 mil (which CoG has said it wants the bonds sold first-or are they backtracking?) Final sale/signed/sealed/delivered see you in five years sale of team and lease agreement?

Or is this just the step that CoG is going to have to take which they know GWI is going to ge involved, and get 2011 started with some good ole litigation?

Check back for more, same bat time, same bat station.

 

[MaskedSonja]

Check back for more, same bat time, same bat station.

Julie Newmar "THE" Catwoman, bar none

No, no....I won't go into that "What Batman TV series roles would the participants play"(Mayor Scruggs as Batgirl?)

NO....I....will resist....(though if others are so inclined....)

 

[WpgJets]

I thought always that Hulzy needs the money before he meets with the BOG but this is twisting so much its making my head spin.

 

[blues10]

Julie Newmar "THE" Catwoman, bar none

No, no....I won't go into that "What Batman TV series roles would the participants play"(Mayor Scruggs as Batgirl?)

NO....I....will resist....(though if others are so inclined....)

the Joker could be played by Bettman

 

[JetFan4Ever]

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2011/01/07/coyotes-sale-set-to-close-in-mid-january.html

How does that story pass for journalism?

 

[goyotes]

Bettman is the Penguin.

Ballsalie is the Joker.

Moyes is King Tut.

You called it for Scruggs.

Mr. Freeze? The Riddler? Robin? Batman?

 

[blues10]

Somebody's going to give the city $197 mm interest free? That's awfully nice of them.

I guess the COG forgot about debt service on the monies.

 

[OthmarAmmann]

Benefit: $251.7 million Parking Revenue Cash Flow -- (What, over 200 years??? Besides, there is no reason to believe that Glendale could not have kept some of the parking cash flow anyway, particularly for the non-Coyotes events).

See the TL Hawking analysis on the Goldwater website:

http://www.goldwaterinstitute.org/file/5526/download/5528

Assumption is $12 to park at a Coyotes game in the first year, increasing by 2.5% per year. 32 "major" concerts/events at an average price to park of $17.50 per event.


edit: There's also another 80 page parking analysis

http://www.goldwaterinstitute.org/file/5528/download/5530

 

[blues10]

Bettman is the Penguin.

Ballsalie is the Joker.

Moyes is King Tut.

You called it for Scruggs.

Mr. Freeze? The Riddler? Robin? Batman?

Riddler has to be Daryl Jones of IEH or even Daly himself

 

[goyotes]

How does that story pass for journalism?

It's not like there have been many stories that pass for sound journalism. Like this one, they usually amount to some "source" coupled with optomism coming from one camp or the other.

 

[blues10]

See the TL Hawking analysis on the Goldwater website:

http://www.goldwaterinstitute.org/file/5526/download/5528

Assumption is $12 to park at a Coyotes game in the first year, increasing by 2.5% per year. 32 "major" concerts/events at an average price to park of $17.50 per event.


edit: There's also another 80 page parking analysis

http://www.goldwaterinstitute.org/file/5528/download/5530

Is Disney on ice a major event? I can't see many families wanting to pay $17.50 to park the car. I guess that is what you call number crunching. Is it feasable? probably.

 

[WpgJets]

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2011/01/07/coyotes-sale-set-to-close-in-mid-january.html

 

[OthmarAmmann]

Is Disney on ice a major event? I can't see many families wanting to pay $17.50 to park the car. I guess that is what you call number crunching. Is it feasable? probably.

I think they'd better get cracking. Besides Coyotes games, all they have on the schedule for this year is two days of rodeo, one day of motocross, Yanni in Concert, and Keith Urban.

http://jobingarena.com/

 

[aj8000]

If you read page 69 of the Walker parking report there estimated revenue from parking is 2.1 million in year one and 3.1 million in year 5. that would not even be enough to pay the interest on the bond @ 6%.

I am going to read the other report to see what we get.

Hocking appears to be much more optimistic and figures that the net revenue from the parking per year would be 6.5 million. enough to cover the interest @6% but not enough o pay off the bond.

However, the hocking report does not seem as detailed as the walker, so I think the walker report may be much closer to the truth.

 

[Whileee]

See the TL Hawking analysis on the Goldwater website:

http://www.goldwaterinstitute.org/file/5526/download/5528

Assumption is $12 to park at a Coyotes game in the first year, increasing by 2.5% per year. 32 "major" concerts/events at an average price to park of $17.50 per event.


edit: There's also another 80 page parking analysis

http://www.goldwaterinstitute.org/file/5528/download/5530

Fun stuff. All the optimistic analyses refer to some undefined time call "at stabilization", at which point there are going to be 80 non-hockey events per year, and folks paying large parking fees (even if the event ticket costs are low).

But the larger point is that the analysis assumes that Glendale, which owns the arena and the parking lots, are not entitled to any of the parking fees in the first place, and therefore have to purchase them from the new owner of the Coyotes. Moreover, even if you accept the very optimistic calculation of future parking revenues, the more prudent course would be to assign the parking rights to the new Coyotes owner and arena manager, rather than paying for them up-front with the hope of breaking even with a very optimistic set of assumptions.

 

[MaskedSonja]

See the TL Hawking analysis on the Goldwater website:

http://www.goldwaterinstitute.org/file/5526/download/5528

Assumption is $12 to park at a Coyotes game in the first year, increasing by 2.5% per year. 32 "major" concerts/events at an average price to park of $17.50 per event.


edit: There's also another 80 page parking analysis

http://www.goldwaterinstitute.org/file/5528/download/5530

I did the math (I think) and 73 events (41 games plus 32 major events), and put at 20.00 a pop:

1,460 per spot, 5000 parking spaces, that's an income of about 7 mil a year-that's at 20 dollars a shot.


Would 7 mil/ year even cover the debt/bond interest?

 

[MaskedSonja]

Fun stuff. All the optimistic analyses refer to some undefined time call "at stabilization", at which point there are going to be 80 non-hockey events per year, and folks paying large parking fees (even if the event ticket costs are low).

But the larger point is that the analysis assumes that Glendale, which owns the arena and the parking lots, are not entitled to any of the parking fees in the first place, and therefore have to purchase them from the new owner of the Coyotes. Moreover, even if you accept the very optimistic calculation of future parking revenues, the more prudent course would be to assign the parking rights to the new Coyotes owner and arena manager, rather than paying for them up-front with the hope of breaking even with a very optimistic set of assumptions.

I admit I'm not a math wiz, but however when I do the numbers, the interest isn't even covered-the numbers don't add up. With the Westgate blooming (hopefully), maybe they can try later to tack on that "business district" tax to get more back?

That, and they're really hoping MH buys the arena after 5 years-but even if he bought the arena, would the amount be enough to cover the bonds and interest?

 

[Veinless]

I did the math (I think) and 73 events (41 games plus 32 major events), and put at 20.00 a pop:

1,460 per spot, 5000 parking spaces, that's an income of about 7 mil a year-that's at 20 dollars a shot.


Would 7 mil/ year even cover the debt/bond interest?

The part that I don't get is 32 major events at $20/spot is $3.2M. With no additional debt to service. Makes more sense to go this route.