Zuluss
Registered User
- May 19, 2011
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Gretzky outperformed second place by a factor of 1.44x and fifth place by 1.70x.
Ovechkin outperformed second place by 1.25x and fifth place by 1.51x.
This is an overly simplistic analysis and just one way to skin this cat. But it seems clear to me that Gretzky's 92-goal season was more special in relation to his peers than Ovechkin's.
That's a good starting point, and I am a big believer in % leads over 5th/10th place as a way of measuring dominance.
One thing to check though is whether it has become harder to lead the pears by big margins in the 80s (with expansion/WHA teams and no Soviets/Czechs) and in the 2000s.
In the 80s, the average lead of the goal-scoring title winner over the 5th place in goals was 41%. The average lead of #2 in goals over #5 in goals was 17%.
In the 2000s, the same two numbers were 25% and 13%. Let's pay more attention to the second pair, because the first probably just says 2000s did not have its own Gretzky who would win five goal-scoring titles in style.
So, in the 80s, #2 led #5 by 17%, and in the 2000s #2 led #5 by 13%. That's a 30% difference (17/13=1.3). Which means that given the increased level of competition, in 2000s Greztky probably would have led #5 not by 1.7x, but by 1.7/1.3=1.3x. And Ovechkin led by 1.51x, so Ovechkin's 65-goal season is better.
We can take longer samples and pitch the high-scoring era of 1970-1996 vs. the current low-scoring era (1997-2017). The result will not be as extreme: in 1970-96, #2 led #5 in goals by 16%, in 1997-2017, by 13.8%, the ratio of 1.16. So, given the increased competition, in the modern times Gretzky would have led #5 by 1.7/1.16=1.47x. Ovechkin's 1.51x are still better by a hair.