Ovechkin milestone thread - 850 and Beyond!

[Protas Zealots]

If its a fracture why wouldn't it be immobilized/in a cast? Seems like it would be best to absolutely max out his rehab and come back swinging by Christmas. On a side note holy shit am I glad its not his knee

 

[hockeykicker]

If its a fracture why wouldn't it be immobilized/in a cast? Seems like it would be best to absolutely max out his rehab and come back swinging by Christmas. On a side note holy shit am I glad its not his knee

You don't always put a cast on a broken bone. Must mean it's basically still together ( non displaced)

 

[Lou Sassole]

You don't always put a cast on a broken bone. Must mean it's basically still together ( non displaced)

Yeah, must be closer to a hairline fracture like Kypreos first reported earlier in the week.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

I feel like I cursed Ovechkin with this post from two weeks ago:

Somewhere, someone was talking about durability. Here's how Ovechkin ranks (as of today - November 10th, 2024) among players during their first 20 seasons (games played divided by games on the schedule):

Players	Games	Max	Percentage
Larry Murphy	1,558	1,586	98.2%​
Patrick Marleau	1,575	1,606	98.1%​
Nicklas Lidstrom	1,564	1,608	97.3%​
Jaroma Iginla	1,554	1,606	96.8%​
Alex Ovechkin	1,440	1,499	96.1%​
Scott Stevens	1,516	1,590	95.3%​
Wayne Gretzky	1,487	1,584	93.9%​
Ron Francis	1,489	1,588	93.8%​
Jaromir Jagr	1,473	1,572	93.7%​
Brendan Shanahan	1,490	1,600	93.1%​
Mark Recchi	1,490	1,602	93.0%​
Joe Thornton	1,493	1,606	93.0%​
Doug Gilmour	1,474	1,592	92.6%​
Rod Brind'Amour	1,484	1,604	92.5%​
Stan Mikita	1,376	1,498	91.9%​
Ray Bourque	1,453	1,584	91.7%​
Shane Doan	1,466	1,606	91.3%​
Glen Wesley	1,457	1,600	91.1%​
Mike Modano	1,459	1,604	91.0%​
Dave Andreycchuk	1,443	1,590	90.8%​

It's an interesting mix. You have some power forwards (Ovechkin, Iginla, Shanahan, Doan, half of Mikita's career). Forwards who aren't huge hitters, but are good two-way players (Gilmour, Francis, Modano). Excellent two-way defensemen (Bourque, Lidstrom, Stevens). A few forwards who are big and strong, but not aggressive (Jagr, Thornton). There's only one player who I'd say is relatively soft (Marleau).

Note - I haven't filtered out "false starts". So Chris Chelios's 12 games in 1985 counts against him. I don't have any way to calculate this though.

(EDIT - I just realized the database I pulled this from only starts in 1960, and stops at 2020 - except for Ovechkin, who I calculated manually since we're mid-season. So there are a few players missing - Gordie Howe being the most obvious. I just calculated he's at 97.0%, which would rank him 4th here. In any event, this table covers six decades, and presumably highlights just how rare Ovechkin's durability has been).

 

[cupface52]

If its a fracture why wouldn't it be immobilized/in a cast? Seems like it would be best to absolutely max out his rehab and come back swinging by Christmas. On a side note holy shit am I glad its not his knee

Hairline fracture, can heal in as little as two weeks depending on several factors, including severity, ie, a 1mm crack will heal much quicker than a crack through 3/4 of the bone. Could also take 8 weeks.

If it were the playoffs, he very well could have been playing right now.

 

[Mr. Fancy Pants]

I took Ovi's goal scoring pace this season so far and ran it through a Monte Carlo simulation. If we assume Ovi maintains the same scoring pace after he returns from injury and he remains healthy, it's almost assured that he'll break the record this year. In the worst case scenario where he's out the full six weeks, he would return for the Jan. 4th game vs the Rangers. That would leave 44 games left in the season for him which puts the probability at 97%.

 

[hockey4sale]

Look at the Caps without Ovie, it’s helpless team offensively, not a playoff team at all, with Ovie Caps are top 5 team in the league, Ovie should be top 3 candidate for the Hart, at age 39 he is top Hart candidate, he is not getting enough recognition as main engine for the Caps, many still view him just as one dimensional goal score

 

[Hockey Outsider]

I took Ovi's goal scoring pace this season so far and ran it through a Monte Carlo simulation. If we assume Ovi maintains the same scoring pace after he returns from injury and he remains healthy, it's almost assured that he'll break the record this year. In the worst case scenario where he's out the full six weeks, he would return for the Jan. 4th game vs the Rangers. That would leave 44 games left in the season for him which puts the probability at 97%.


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I like this approach, but you'll probably get a more realistic estimate if you use data from prior years as well. Ovechkin was shooting nearly 24% through his first 18 games (which is more than 10% above his career average). Even if he comes back perfectly healthy, there's no conceivable way he'll maintain that pace.

(If he comes back with 44 games, and assuming there are no long-term effects of the injury, I give him a 41% chance of tying the record, and 34% chance of breaking the record this season).

 

[hockey4sale]

No Ovie, no offense, no wins

 

[User9992]

Ovi's influence on Caps even at his age is crazy.

 

[Randyne]

he is not getting enough recognition as main engine for the Caps

That's on media. Listen they call him "Ovechkin obviously is not the reason of the caps success". Ovechkin out 4-6 weeks for Capitals with broken leg | NHL.com
In reality, Ovechkin is one of the most impactful player/leader in NHL history.

WSH played 61 games without Ovechkin: 26-31-4, which is .459 P%
WSH played 1444 games with Ovechkin: 795-473-176, which is .611 P%

team	with-w/o	player	GP	P%	P% impact
WSH	with	Alexander Ovechkin	1444​	.611​	+.152​
WSH	w/o	Alexander Ovechkin	61​	.459​
EDM	with	Connor McDavid	663​	.581​	+.123​
EDM	w/o	Connor McDavid	59​	.458​
NYI	with	Mike Bossy	752​	.633​	+.091​
NYI	w/o	Mike Bossy	48​	.542​
EDM/LAK	with	Wayne Gretzky*	1173​	.587​	+.087​
EDM/LAK	w/o	Wayne Gretzky*	83​	.500​
DET	with	Gordie Howe*	1687​	.549​	+.040​
DET	w/o	Gordie Howe*	57​	.509​
PIT	with	Mario Lemieux*	745​	.540​	+.033​
PIT	w/o	Mario Lemieux*	275​	.507​
MTL	with	Maurice Richard	978​	.609​	+.007​
MTL	w/o	Maurice Richard	172​	.602​
PIT	with	Sidney Crosby	1295​	.605​	​
PIT	w/o	Sidney Crosby	213​	.634​	–.029​

*WG seasons 1979/80-1994/95 EDM+LAK
*ML seasons 1984/85-1996/97
*GH seasons 1946/47-1970/71

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

Hope this injury doesn’t make him slow