Ovechkin milestone thread - 850 and Beyond!

[tarheelhockey]

Its more that he visually declined very fast for me. Going from a dynamic skater to a shot. Dont get me wrong im one of those who rank him above Crosby all time, mainly based on peak, and his consistency as a goalscorer is more or less unmatched but he quickly turned into about half the complete package of his former self.

Brett Hull.

 

[Video Nasty]

Did he?
2011 (25yo) — 85pts, 32G + 53A. Worst SH% in career.
2012 (26yo) — 65pts, Hunter's Hockey. No comment.
2013 (27yo) — 56pts in 48 games. Half-season (~95pts/82gm)

Three seasons. Different reasons.

Sad when a thread full of Ovechkin fans can’t even remember what the guy looked like on the ice early on in comparison to what he devolved into.

 

[Randyne]

Sad when a thread full of Ovechkin fans can’t even remember what the guy looked like on the ice early on in comparison to what he devolved into.

You don't remember that NHL decided it's unacceptable (to be so much more dominant than everyone else) and took away 2 Rosses, 1 Rocket, 1 Hart from him.

 

[um]

You don't remember that NHL decided it's unacceptable (to be so much more dominant than everyone else) and took away 2 Rosses, 1 Rocket, 1 Hart from him.

2 Ross's? What is there besides 2010?

 

[LevelingSolo]

To be fair, post-peak Ovi lined up directly with the dead puck era 2.0.

2011: Down year, but 7th in points. Realistically equivalent to ~105 points today.

2012: Worst year of his career. But 5th in goals and 37th in points was equivalent to 49 goals and 75 points last year.

2013: Low scoring + half season. But he had the best season in the NHL that year (even if Crosby was a better player and just missed games). But that season definitely is equivalent to 55-60 goals + 110-120 points based on the last few years.

2014: 1st in goals and 8th in points, with that goalscoring year being one of the most dominant of all time. Pretty close to a 60-65 goal, 105 point season today.

2015: Best season by a non-goalie. Crazy dominant goal year, 4th in points and not that far behind 1st. Pretty close to a 60-65 goal, 115-120 point season today.

From 2011-2017 (7 seasons, there were only 5x 100 point seasons because of how low scoring the league was). The last few years we are averaging like 9x per season!

Dale Hunter robbed a year of prime Ovie

 

[filinski77]

I respect your posts and your passion for Ovechkin, but I don’t agree that scoring levels explain it all away. He was an all around playmaking monster for his first handful of seasons and then it crumbled away virtually overnight, at too young of an age.

I'm not explaining it all away. Obviously Ovechkin went from 3 straight years of being #1 in points/gp and #1 in goals/gp to just being the GOAT goal-scorer and "one of" the top point producers instead of THE BEST.

You said "but it would be so much easier to cheer this on if he didn’t stop posting 100 point seasons after age 24, and crumbled from a 110-120 point caliber player of the time to someone struggling to stay around a PPG."
-> And I went on to explain the context behind what 100 point seasons in 2011-2017 meant as compared to the last few years.

 

[Neil Racki]

lolwut

5 50g seasons + a 49 and 48g* season after his first five seasons is quite the decline isn't it (591 goals)
* Covid cut 10gms off

There's been a TOTAL of 18 110+ point seasons league-wide the last 15 years, only 8 from Wingers
(and 10 of the 18 the last 2 seasons)

Struggling I tell ya .. struggling

 

[Video Nasty]

I'm not explaining it all away. Obviously Ovechkin went from 3 straight years of being #1 in points/gp and #1 in goals/gp to just being the GOAT goal-scorer and "one of" the top point producers instead of THE BEST.

You said "but it would be so much easier to cheer this on if he didn’t stop posting 100 point seasons after age 24, and crumbled from a 110-120 point caliber player of the time to someone struggling to stay around a PPG."
-> And I went on to explain the context behind what 100 point seasons in 2011-2017 meant as compared to the last few years.

I was being kind when I said struggling to stay around a PPG.

Scoring being marginally lower from 2010-2011 through 2016-2017 than it was from 2007-2008 through 2009-2010–Ovechkin’s pure peak as a player—doesn’t explain three instances of well-below PPG and two instances of at or a fraction of a point above during those seven seasons.

Scoring levels declining 3-4% doesn’t explain away a player who only just turned 25 years old going from 1.42 PPG to 0.96 PPG over the next 7 seasons, a slash of 32%.

I don’t know why it’s hard for Ovechkin fans to admit that the on-ice version we were treated to was a night and day difference, and it was premature for an all-timer. There’s no excuse for Ovechkin cracking 80 points just five times since the end of his age 24 season.

 

[ClydeLee]

I was being kind when I said struggling to stay around a PPG.

Scoring being marginally lower from 2010-2011 through 2016-2017 than it was from 2007-2008 through 2009-2010–Ovechkin’s pure peak as a player—doesn’t explain three instances of well-below PPG and two instances of at or a fraction of a point above during those seven seasons.

Scoring levels declining 3-4% doesn’t explain away a player who only just turned 25 years old going from 1.42 PPG to 0.96 PPG over the next 7 seasons, a slash of 32%.

I don’t know why it’s hard for Ovechkin fans to admit that the on-ice version we were treated to was a night and day difference, and it was premature for an all-timer. There’s no excuse for Ovechkin cracking 80 points just five times since the end of his age 24 season.

Have you never seen the years of study of scoring curves? This isn't singular to him or abnormal at all. 24 is peak offensive production for forwards typically. There's variation of impact in other data too where overall impact seems to peak at 27 for the most part.

 

[Video Nasty]

Have you never seen the years of study of scoring curves? This isn't singular to him or abnormal at all. 24 is peak offensive production for forwards typically. There's variation of impact in other data too where overall impact seems to peak at 27 for the most part.

Forget what either of us thinks the point totals should be for a moment.

You’re making excuses for him. When we look at the Art Ross winners from the Expansion era on—55 seasons of data—35 of them were age 25 or older. Of the ones who won their first under the age of 25, all who repeated also did so past that age, i.e. Jagr won his first at 22 like Ovechkin and then won four more between the ages of 25-28, Malkin won at 21 and won again at 25, McDavid won at 20 and his latest so far was 26, and so on.

He was an all-around monster who wasn’t solely focused on getting fed goals. It’s okay for that version of the player to die out at 27 or 28, not at the tail end of their age 24 season.

 

[filinski77]

I was being kind when I said struggling to stay around a PPG.

Scoring being marginally lower from 2010-2011 through 2016-2017 than it was from 2007-2008 through 2009-2010–Ovechkin’s pure peak as a player—doesn’t explain three instances of well-below PPG and two instances of at or a fraction of a point above during those seven seasons.

Scoring levels declining 3-4% doesn’t explain away a player who only just turned 25 years old going from 1.42 PPG to 0.96 PPG over the next 7 seasons, a slash of 32%.

I don’t know why it’s hard for Ovechkin fans to admit that the on-ice version we were treated to was a night and day difference, and it was premature for an all-timer. There’s no excuse for Ovechkin cracking 80 points just five times since the end of his age 24 season.

With all due respect, I think you are:
a) Grossly underestimating how much scoring went down in the DPE 2.0
b) Being blinded by how much higher scoring is now with the changes to goalies/penalties etc

As you can see, there was a large ~10% cut in in scoring for elite players from 2008-2010 vs. 2011-2017. Followed by a MASSIVE jump in scoring to today's levels.

	Avg 5th in pts	Avg 10th in pts	Avg 30th in pts
2008 to 2010	95	87	74
2011 to 2017	85	77	66
2022 to 2024	110	99	79
11/17 vs 08/10	-10%​	-11%​	-11%​
22/24 vs 11/17	28%​	28%​	21%​

	5th	10th	30th
2011​	91​	77​	66​
2012​	83​	78​	67​
2013(proj)	94​	83​	70​
2014​	82​	79​	65​
2015​	81​	73​	64​
2016​	82​	77​	63​
2017​	85​	75​	64​
2018​	97​	89​	75​
2019​	100​	96​	78​

Look, I'm not denying that Ovechkin was less of a player than he was during his peak. Everybody knows that, but 100% the fact that his post-peak came in one of the lowest scoring era's of all-time definitely hurts no-context analysis of his career.

Yes Ovechkin had a couple down years (which weren't nearly as bad when you consider the placements in todays terms of points/goals), but he followed it up with 4 straight rockets, where for the first 3 of them, he averaged 5th in points placements. Then boom - after that the guy was already 31 years old.

If Ovechkin just continued to be 1st-3rd in points, we'd be talking about the greatest hockey player of all-time. The only reason he's top 6-10 and not top-1 is because he stopped being the #1 point producer in the league.

For reference, if you look at his post-peak point and goal finishes, and then compare what the average points/goals were for the exact same finishes from the last 3 seasons are, a lot of these "oh he barely stayed above a point/gp" discussions would be moot. Ovechkin literally played half of his prime where being a point per game made you a top 5-7 point producer in the league.

Season	Age	Goals Rank	Points Rank	Equivalent finish - goals	Equivalent finish - points.
2011​	25​	14th	7th	41	107
2012​	26​	5th	37th	49	77
2013​	27​	1st	3rd	64	120
2014​	28​	1st	8th	64	104
2015​	29​	1st	4th	64	114
2016​	30​	1st	15th	64	93
2017​	31​	13th	20th	41	87
2018​	32​	1st	11th	64	98
2019​	33​	1st	15th	64	93
2020​	34​	1st	18th	64	89

 

[kugelbahn]

Similar drop-off in production happened to Crosby. If you use better catch-all metric to compare wingers to centers, like Goals Created or Point Shares, their drop-off is very similar vs games played.
Will see how speedster McD handles aging vs shooter and grinder types.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

33 away, on another multi-point night!

 

[BallardEra]

8 goals after 12 games this season.

8 goals after 43 games last season.

 

[the valiant effort]

16 pts in 11+ games on a winning team, is that good?

 

[Team_Spirit]

Hell yeah...This year

 

[Demandedace]

16 pts in 11+ games on a winning team, is that good?

Nah man. We mortgaged our future to try to chase the record on a terrible team - haven't you heard?

 

[TJHKY]

 

[Section 104]

Wayne Gretzky stopped leading the league in goals scored at age 26. Ovechkin has led the league in goals scored seven times since he turned 26.


Which isn’t to say Gretzky was a mediocrity after age 26 or Ovechkin is greater. Personally I wonder sometimes about the scoring system when an assist counts as much as a goal.


Having the Predators vs Capitals game they had some kind of a stat..forget it exactly but essentially Ovechkin had 6 goals in his first 46 games in 2023-25. Since then he has 31 goals in his last 46 games. You think the man might be slowing down, he finds another gear and revs it up.

 

[Lou Sassole]

16 pts in 11+ games on a winning team, is that good?

I've been assured that he is washed, and they are a rebuilding team, so you must be mistaken. I'm sure if he even has 8 goals, they must've been scored into an empty net.....

 

[BallardEra]

8 goals and 8 assists for 16 points with a +10 after 12 games.

 

[andrjusha]

GWG #130, second alltime behind Jagr (135)

True GWG as well, last goal of a game to win it, I wonder if such stat is tracked?

 

[Ghost of Murph]

All this analysis while Ovi just keeps scoring goals.

 

[kugelbahn]

GWG #130, second alltime behind Jagr (135)

True GWG as well, last goal of a game to win it, I wonder if such stat is tracked?

I am sure @pnep could quickly track it down

 

[Craig Ludwig]

So ridiculously sad to see so many keyboard warriors bash the greatest goal scorer, and it's not even close, of all time! It's akin to bashing Gordie Howe or Wayne Gretzky while they were playing. Enjoy the ride so you can tell your grandchildren you saw Ovie play, many of us at a live game, hopefully by that time the bitterness will wear off.