Our beloved Metro division watch thread.

[Sore Loser]

Flyers just got Cam Talbot. While he's not special he's better than Stolarz. Flyers aren't giving up quite yet.

Don't read too much into that. Talbot is 31, the Flyers need a veteran backup and he and Carter Hart are good buddies, train together in the offeason.

Hart is the reason they have turned a corner. They aren't out to load up at the deadline, this was a long-term move to keep the pressure off the kid.

 

[DJA]

Big night tonight. If we lose in regulation and Pens and Canes win, we’ll be below the bar.

Good thing is that we win all important tiebreakers at the moment.

 

[MAHJ71]

Don't read too much into that. Talbot is 31, the Flyers need a veteran backup and he and Carter Hart are good buddies, train together in the offeason.

Hart is the reason they have turned a corner. They aren't out to load up at the deadline, this was a long-term move to keep the pressure off the kid.

Getting out of EDM I think we'll see he still has a decent amount left in the tank.

 

[Columbus Jack]

So long term wise, how many points gets us into the playoffs? Anything over 100?

 

[DJA]

So long term wise, how many points gets us into the playoffs? Anything over 100?

Around 96

 

[Speedy Sanderson]

Big night tonight. If we lose in regulation and Pens and Canes win, we’ll be below the bar.

Good thing is that we win all important tiebreakers at the moment.

Two games in hand on Canes and one on Pens.

 

[DJA]

Two games in hand on Canes and one on Pens.

....which don’t mean a thing if you lose them.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

....which don’t mean a thing if you lose them.

Unless they lose them too.

 

[Columbus Jack]

So basically we have to win around 15 of the next 26 games. Would put us at 97 points. Looking at our schedule, it comes down to winning the games we should, starting tonight.

 

[DJA]

Well at least the Pens are doing their part...they look dreadful today

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I think in order for us to get in, it will require another streak like we've had the past two seasons. 8 game win streak, 10 game point streak, something like that. Along with some help. That should be good enough to get somewhat comfortable.

 

[Sore Loser]

I think in order for us to get in, it will require another streak like we've had the past two seasons. 8 game win streak, 10 game point streak, something like that. Along with some help. That should be good enough to get somewhat comfortable.

Really? To go 15-11?

 

[CBJWerenski8]

With Pittsburgh's regulation loss to Calgary, our playoff spot is safe another day regardless of what happens in Carolina and Chicago.

Really? To go 15-11?

Yup.

 

[JohnnyJacket13]

2018-19 NHL playoff chances and standings projections...

@CBJWennberg10 go give Dom a follow.

 

[Sore Loser]

With Pittsburgh's regulation loss to Calgary, our playoff spot is safe another day regardless of what happens in Carolina and Chicago.



Yup.

If you say so. Carolina may be sellers at the deadline, and honestly there's no way their goaltending holds up long term, so either way I don't see them as a real threat to us. This team going 15-11 honestly seems like a given, I think we'll easily eclipse 100 points.

 

[MAHJ71]

If you say so. Carolina may be sellers at the deadline, and honestly there's no way their goaltending holds up long term, so either way I don't see them as a real threat to us. This team going 15-11 honestly seems like a given, I think we'll easily eclipse 100 points.

Starts with winning games we should win, like tonight.

Will also need to shore up the home game performances...

 

[CBJWerenski8]

If you say so. Carolina may be sellers at the deadline, and honestly there's no way their goaltending holds up long term, so either way I don't see them as a real threat to us. This team going 15-11 honestly seems like a given, I think we'll easily eclipse 100 points.

Guess we’ll see, but I disagree hard on the 100 point thing.

 

[Sore Loser]

Guess we’ll see, but I disagree hard on the 100 point thing.

With the distractions and adversity this team has gone through this year, and the deadline approaching, I see them turning hard north.

I think Jarmo sees a need to go for it this year, and even if he has to change up the roster a bit, I see him trying to improve it at the deadline. They are still very much in contention for the division title... distractions will go away after the deadline one way or another, and I think we will see a better team iced.

I realize that your perspective is virtually impossible to change, but this team, with or without Panarin, is more than capable of going 15-11. 16-9-1 or 15-8-3 is hardly asking to much, and that's all it will take to get to 100 points.

Unless you see Jarmo blowing up the roster and starting a rebuild, I don't see how you can be so down on them.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

With the distractions and adversity this team has gone through this year, and the deadline approaching, I see them turning hard north.

I think Jarmo sees a need to go for it this year, and even if he has to change up the roster a bit, I see him trying to improve it at the deadline. They are still very much in contention for the division title... distractions will go away after the deadline one way or another, and I think we will see a better team iced.

I realize that your perspective is virtually impossible to change, but this team, with or without Panarin, is more than capable of going 15-11. 16-9-1 or 15-8-3 is hardly asking to much, and that's all it will take to get to 100 points.

Unless you see Jarmo blowing up the roster and starting a rebuild, I don't see how you can be so down on them.

Without getting into it too much, I look at the drama as a negative, not a positive. The drama will subside one way or the other after the deadline, so that'll help, but I don't think Panarin is on the roster which will really hurt. Our schedule down the stretch is brutal, and with our home struggles and struggles against good teams, I don't see us north of 93 points.

 

[Sore Loser]

Without getting into it too much, I look at the drama as a negative, not a positive. The drama will subside one way or the other after the deadline, so that'll help, but I don't think Panarin is on the roster which will really hurt. Our schedule down the stretch is brutal, and with our home struggles and struggles against good teams, I don't see us north of 93 points.

If Panarin isn't on the roster, it's because we have gotten our ask for him. It also means we will likely be adding another top end player.

We will have to wait and see, but I think the team has done a remarkable job this year. If anything, I see them playing a different, less reliant style, if Panarin leaves.

After all, the last year they didn't have him, they put up 104 points.

 

[EspenK]

I see 7 games the Jackets should win. I see one (TB) where I see one they should lose. If they go 8-7 against the rest that's 30 points for a total of 99 which is (almost?) an automatic playoff spot. Point is there is not a lot of room for error and a couple of mishaps here and there and they could be a near miss. Gonna be interesting.

 

[JohnnyJacket13]

 

[EspenK]

9 teams for 8 spots

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Pittsburgh won

 

[Long Live Lyle]

I think in order for us to get in, it will require another streak like we've had the past two seasons. 8 game win streak, 10 game point streak, something like that. Along with some help. That should be good enough to get somewhat comfortable.

It won’t require that. If we, hypothetically, went 13-10-2 to end the season, we’d finish with 97 points. Four of these six things would have to happen for us to miss:

Washington: 27 points in 23 games (12-8-3 / 13-9-1)
Pittsburgh: 29 points in 23 games (13-7-3 / 14-8-1)
Montreal: 29 points in 23 games (13-7-3 / 14-8-1)
Carolina: 30 points in 23 games (14-7-2 / 15-8-0)
Buffalo: 35 points in 24 games (16-5-3 / 17-6-1)
Philly: 35 points in 23 games (16-4-3 / 17-5-1)

If we went 15-8-2, which would still nowhere near require an 8-game winning streak / 10-game point streak, we’d finish with 101 points. Four of these six would have to happen:

Washington: 31 points in 23 games (14-6-3 / 15-7-1)
Pittsburgh: 33 points in 23 games (15-5-3 / 16-6-1)
Montreal: 33 points in 23 games (15-5-3 / 16-6-1)
Carolina: 34 points in 23 games (16-5-2 / 17-6-0)
Buffalo: 39 points in 24 games (18-3-3 / 19-4-1)
Philly: 39 points in 23 games (18-2-3 / 19-3-1)

(And, further, there’s a slim chance one of NYI or BOS doesn’t hit 102 points.)

The Athletic has us as at an 83% chance to make the playoffs. Sportsclubstats has us at 88.1%. Both factor in remaining schedules/opponents and home/away (the Athletic’s is a bit more robust, as it takes into account lineups/advanced stats a bit more, while sportsclubstats basically just looks at goal differential to determine team quality/chances of winning each individual game).

We’re in better shape than you think. Obviously, an 11-12-2 finish will leaving us biting our nails (and probably on the outside looking in) but we don’t need to go 17-6-2 or something like that.