Speculation: Ottawa Senators Cap Projections 25/26 and 26/27

[Golden_Jet]

If the cap goes to 113 from the current 88, that's a 25m increase

25 * 32 = 800m more to players based on a 50 50 split

So how exactly are league revenues going to rise by 1.6 B ?

And if they do, most of that has to be common revenue?

If players get 800 million then 800 million to owners as well, even though calculation is more convoluted, it’s a good base point.

 

[JD1]

If players get 800 million then 800 million to owners as well, even though calculation is more convoluted, it’s a good base point.

Right. That's what I'm asking. Where does all this additional revenue come from ?

 

[Golden_Jet]

Right. That's what I'm asking. Where does all this additional revenue come from ?

Not sure I follow
If players get 800 million, then revenues did increase by 1.6 billion (in general).

Or are you asking how does it go up by 25 million over the next 3 years, per team.

 

[GCK]

A lot of scary stuff that can impact Canada and also the US.. we are heading towards a very strange time and the people at the wheel are completely blind and deaf to anything other than the making of an authoritarian regime

Let’s skip the political talk.

 

[GCK]

Right. That's what I'm asking. Where does all this additional revenue come from ?

I’d love to see a central revenue vs local revenue breakdown.

 

[Micklebot]

If the cap goes to 113 from the current 88, that's a 25m increase

25 * 32 = 800m more to players based on a 50 50 split

So how exactly are league revenues going to rise by 1.6 B ?

And if they do, most of that has to be common revenue?

I was thinking the same thing. Increases this big but we aren't seeing huge spikes in attendance. I guess inflation has been pretty high so maybe tickets and concessions prices are driving some of it, but I was assuming TV deals, and gambling partnerships were driving this, the latter definately being centrally generated

 

[GCK]

Our team is so f***ed. A 113M upper limit is crazy. Once Tkachuk, Stu and Sanderson are done with their contacts we will be a floor team.

 

[JD1]

Not sure I follow
If players get 800 million, then revenues did increase by 1.6 billion (in general).

Or are you asking how does it go up by 25 million over the next 3 years, per team.

I'm asking how revenue increases by 1.6 B.

Where does it come from? Some ticket inflation maybe. But I'm guessing they're doing some modeling on future TV contracts. That means .... hopefully for us it means....that the biggest component of revenue increase is shareable revenue

If shared revenue is driving the cap increase we're fine

If it's local revenue streams, we're screwed

 

[GCK]

I'm asking how revenue increases by 1.6 B.

Where does it come from? Some ticket inflation maybe. But I'm guessing they're doing some modeling on future TV contracts. That means .... hopefully for us it means....that the biggest component of revenue increase is shareable revenue

If shared revenue is driving the cap increase we're fine

If it's local revenue streams, we're screwed

Total between new US nation broadcast and current Canadian broadcast deals is under 1 Billion so I assume most revenues are local.

So yeah, most teams are going to be in trouble without better revenue sharing.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I'm asking how revenue increases by 1.6 B.

Where does it come from? Some ticket inflation maybe. But I'm guessing they're doing some modeling on future TV contracts. That means .... hopefully for us it means....that the biggest component of revenue increase is shareable revenue

If shared revenue is driving the cap increase we're fine

If it's local revenue streams, we're screwed

Gambling has to be a big one.
Canadian national TV deal is up after next year, which is shared.
Regional TV deal money is up after next year, but that is not shared I believe.

This increase might require, a remodel of revenue sharing, in next CBA.
Currently around 35% of playoff ticket revenues goes to revenue sharing, also some from the top 10 in revenues goes to the bottom 10.

 

[JD1]

Total between new US nation broadcast and current Canadian broadcast deals is under 1 Billion so I assume most revenues are local.

So yeah, most teams are going to be in trouble without better revenue sharing.

I think they are expecting explosions in digital advertising and I think they're expecting huge increases in streaming revenue. The Roger's contract is up soon too. Be interesting to see that develop. TSN's parent may not even survive so I don't see much of a bidding war there

 

[GCK]

I think they are expecting explosions in digital advertising and I think they're expecting huge increases in streaming revenue. The Roger's contract is up soon too. Be interesting to see that develop. TSN's parent may not even survive so I don't see much of a bidding war there

I believe the Disney contract in the US includes streaming rights.

 

[JD1]

I believe the Disney contract in the US includes streaming rights.

I'm not sure of the specifics. But you've got Amazon dipping their toe in the water. The US cable TV market being obliterated. Clearly their internal modeling has them thinking revenue is going to sky rocket

At the current 88 cap

88*32=2.8 for roughly 5.6B in revenue
113*32=3.6 for roughly 7.2 B 8n revenue

I know things got a bit screwed up because of the covid years but there's gotta be a big uptick in league shared revenue to go up that much.

Did you see Pierre LeBrun's article in the Athletic yesterday ? Some nhl execs thinking there will be lots of internal caps less than 113. Also speculation that the Rantanen deal had more to do with an internal cap.

 

[GCK]

You could make an argument that the Leafs regional broadcast rights are almost as valuable as the Canadian national broadcast rights. This is why enhanced revenue sharing is critical.

 

[GCK]

I'm not sure of the specifics. But you've got Amazon dipping their toe in the water. The US cable TV market being obliterated. Clearly their internal modeling has them thinking revenue is going to sky rocket

At the current 88 cap

88*32=2.8 for roughly 5.6B in revenue
113*32=3.6 for roughly 7.2 B 8n revenue

I know things got a bit screwed up because of the covid years but there's gotta be a big uptick in league shared revenue to go up that much.

Did you see Pierre LeBrun's article in the Athletic yesterday ? Some nhl execs thinking there will be lots of internal caps less than 113. Also speculation that the Rantanen deal had more to do with an internal cap.

Amazon is paying Rogers for the Monday night rights, no additional league revenue there. Does Amazon or Netflix bid on the Canadian rights in 2026 ?

 

[JD1]

Amazon is paying Rogers for the Monday night rights, no additional league revenue there. Does Amazon or Netflix bid on the Canadian rights in 2026 ?

That's where I think the modeling comes in. They've got to have some what of an idea where the soaring revenues are coming from

 

[Golden_Jet]

That's where I think the modeling comes in. They've got to have some what of an idea where the soaring revenues are coming from

Well currently Roger’s is in their exclusive 60 day window to get a new deal signed.
However I do think there will be more than one partner this time.

 

[GCK]

I'm starting this thread for use as a location to post proposed Cap situations. I'll start with currently signed player for the next two years including the two buried 1 way contracts next year. I'm using conservative Upper Limit numbers of 95M and 100M.

Player	2025/26	2026/27
Stutzle	8,350,000	8,350,000
Tkachuk	8,205,714	8,205,714
Norris	7,950,000	7,950,000
Batherson	4,975,000	4,975,000
Perron	4,000,000	0
Pinto	3,750,000	0
Amadio	2,600,000	2,600,000
Greig	3,250,000	3,250,000
Ostapchuk	825,000	0
Sanderson	8,050,000	8,050,000
Chabot	8,000,000	8,000,000
Zub	4,600,000	4,600,000
Jensen	4,050,000	4,050,000
Ullmark	8,250,000	8,250,000
Korpisalo	1,000,000	1,000,000
White	875,000	875,000
Total	78,730,714	66,105,714
Projected Cap	95,500,000	104,000,000
Projected Space	16,769,286	37,894,286
MacEwen	775,000	0
Sogaard	775,000	0

Updated with new cap projections.

 

[Loach]

A lot of people in the U.S. are miserable & pissed off these days. Some have asked me questions about Canada lately as a destination to move to.

But...but we were told to stop miserable pissed off immigrants...or else! Ooohhh the irony.

 

[JD1]

But...but we were told to stop miserable pissed off immigrants...or else! Ooohhh the irony.

Well hopefully @Big Muddy is advising his questionners that they're not really welcome here

 

[GCK]

A lot of people in the U.S. are miserable & pissed off these days. Some have asked me questions about Canada lately as a destination to move to.

Stop the political talk

 

[Big Muddy]

Stop the political talk

Its economics.

 

[GCK]

Its economics.

It’s couched politics

 

[Wondercarrot]

Here is a 22 player roster that includes the buyouts & retained salary.

I slotted Merilainen as the backup tender and inserted Yakemchuk on the 3rd pair. If Matinpalo is used on the 3rd pair, this would bump the total a bit as Matinpalo is a RFA.

This is for next season (2025-26). I won’t bother with 2026-27 as too many things can happen between now and then.

Blue shaded cells are RFAs. Orange (ish) shaded cells are for current players or a replacement. Yellow is for ELCs making the jump to the big club.

View attachment 969612

Could this be stickied to the top of the thread?
Super useful for all of us as a common basis.

 

[Cosmix]

Hamonic Replacement isn't someone's name
Matinpalo/JBD did not meld into one person..

I took a leap of faith on people being able to discern that as difficult as it may seem

Must have been the hard stuff.