Just for perspective purposes, let’s run out the possibility of adding to this team. It is at least a worth while exercise.
The expendable assets we have that other teams would inquire about for trades are:
5x 2nds
3x 3rds
5x 4ths
Amidovski
Eshkawkogan
Whitehead
Dietsch
Houben
Yanni
Nelson
If we look at the Barlow deal, the comparable deal Ottawa would have offered is:
Yanni
Dietsch
2x 2nds
2x 3rds
5th
7th
The Rehkopf deal was:
3x (2nds, 3rds, 4ths)
7th
What does Ottawa need:
1> Top Pairing D-Man
2> Elite scorer
3> secondary scoring
IMO, that is three pieces.
Who would we be looking at to fill those roles? Andonovski (KIT), Musty (SUD), plus one player similar to Cooper Foster. What would those trades look like?
For Musty and Andonovski, we are most certainly looking at moving Amidovski in one of those deals. We are also looking at moving two of Yanni, Houben, Whitehead or Dietsch in the other deal. Additionally, we are likely looking at depleting every single one of those draft picks I listed between the 2nd and 4th rounds. There is no way around it. The competition for those players will be fierce. If Ottawa isn’t prepared to move those players and picks, there is no sense in even walking up to the auction.
If we approach this deadline as usual holding only draft picks, we don’t have enough picks to make more than one really good deal and one depth move. Even if we could get one elite player like Rehkopf for picks, that is 9 high picks to start. After we make that move, we are left with two 2nds and two 4ths for the remainder of the moves we make. There is no way around not moving young players.
Any thoughts of truly competing by adding one scorer is sort of crazy. We are 1.4 goals per game behind Kingston and close to a goal per game behind Niagara and Brampton. IMO we need to match up agaisnt Barrie. Their GA is almost a full goal better than Ottawa right now. So, the moves we make right now need to improve our GA and GF by a net of one goal per game. THEN, we need to improve above that to match what the competition will do at the deadline which likely means jsut to be on the same plain as Oshawa, Brampton, Barrie, and Kingston, we need to have a net improvement of around 2.0 goals per game. This is why we need those three players I identified. We need to be able to score AND improve our goal prevention. Our defence is way too young and inexperienced to go into the playoffs with Mayich and Eshkawkogan as the top pair. We’d need to go into the playoffs with a top pairing D-Man to place with MAyich and that drops Eshkawkogan down to anchor the 3rd pairing.
The great teams will focus on Pinelli in the playoffs. If he is our only elite scorer, he will get shut down 5 on 5. He will have zero space. This is why we need another elite scorer. Then we need that secondary scorer.
In a perfect world, Dever is the 3rd Centre. Foster can remain with Pinelli on the 1st line but we’d need to build 2/3 of a 2nd line to play with Stonehouse.
So, the question is whether we, as fans, would be ok seeing Amidovski, Yanni, and Dietsch moved along with the remainder of our draft picks to make an honest run this year. This is followed by trading MEws and MArrelli next year, forcing the team to bottom out and miss the playoffs and pretty much start from scratch. This also means we likely move Nelson the following year as part of the rebuild and have two poor seasons. That is what it will take to make an honest effort this year.
We are already seeing players move from the USHL and BCHL to the CHL. Unfortunately, almost all of Ottawa’s true NCAA committed players are USNTDP players. They are very unlikely to leave that program. I could see Vandenberg maybe moving but he’s a 16 year old and won’t help this year. He would help the rebuild. So, not only will we likley not improve in that regard, we likely will watch other teams around us improve.