The below will discuss what magic number is needed to claim 3rd place in the conference. 1st is not a realistic goal anymore.
Currently Kingston is 2 points up on Oshawa with 4 games left. Both teams have 38 wins this season (this may matter later)
Kingstons next Opponents are:
Ottawa(Away), Peterborough(Away), Brantford(Home), Brampton(Away)
Let's say favorites win out, and Kingston goes 2-2 in regulation. That puts them at 88 pts and 40 wins.
For Oshawa to pace that, they need 6 of 8 potential points down the stretch.
Oshawa's opponents are:
Sudbury(Home), North Bay(Away), Sudbury(Away), and Peterborough(Home)
For arguments sake, let's say Oshawa splits Sudbury and wins the other two bottom conference teams and go 3-1.
That would put them at 88 pts also with 41 wins.
Season would finish with them having the same points but Oshawa having 1 extra win.
Here is where it gets interesting.
According to the OHL tie breaker rules, the following determines a tiebreaker:
At the conclusion of the regular season schedule, if there is a tie for
other than last playoff position, the standing of the teams in each Conference shall be determined by the following tie-breaking procedure:
- The team with the greater number of regular and overtime wins during the regular season shall be declared higher in the standings. (Shootout wins are not included.)
- If two teams are still tied, the team with the best record in head-to-head competition (based on points including overtime and shootout losses) shall be declared higher in the standing.
If more than two teams remain tied after Priority 1, the percentage of available points earned in games among the teams which are still tied shall be used to determine the standing.
- If still tied, the team with the greater differential between goals scored for and against by clubs having equal standing under Priority 2 shall be declared higher in the standings.
Note: For application of this clause, it is understood that the season totals for goals for and against shall be applied which includes the goal credited to the total goals for / against record for the team based on a shootout win / loss.
- If still tied, the team with the higher percentage of goals for plus goals against divided into goals for shall be declared higher in standings.
Let's look at tie breaker rules 1.
Assuming there is no more shootout wins this season for either team, Kingston has 2 shootout wins, Oshawa has 4.
Meaning, if we take those away from their win columns, Kingston would have 38 regulation and OT wins, Oshawa would have 37, thus giving Kingston the tie breaker for 3rd place and head to head will not matter and Oshawa will finish 4.
Let's of pieces need to lineup bur Oshawa winning out is becoming ever more important to avoid a Oshawa/Brampton 1st round then a Brantford in round 2. Both teams Oshawa has struggled with this year.
The more appealing route for Oshawa is Oshawa vs Sudbury/Niagara round 1 and then Barrie round 2, which again, is no easy take in round 2 no matter how you slice it.
going to be an interesting Eastern Conference playoffs.