Oshawa Generals 2024-25 Season Thread, Part 1

[Generalsupdates]

I think you would need to quantify that statement. The issue is that what is pricey for one person is cheap for another.

Seriously. Seen some PBO fans saying Gens overpaid for Barlow despite not giving up a rookie 1st rounder or more than 2x2nd or 2x3rd and then say they didn’t overpay when they gave up Lardis for OAs.

As we know, “overpay” a lot of time isn’t determined until a year later when people use hindsight and act like the trade was good or bad because of reasons they didn’t know at the time it happened lol. Lardis trade was good because the Pete’s won the OHL despite finishing 4th in the East that year. Had they lost, it was a bad trade.. I personally don’t subscribe to that thinking, but clearly a lot of people do

 

[OMG67]

Seriously. Seen some PBO fans saying Gens overpaid for Barlow despite not giving up a rookie 1st rounder or more than 2x2nd or 2x3rd and then say they didn’t overpay when they gave up Lardis for OAs.

As we know, “overpay” a lot of time isn’t determined until a year later when people use hindsight and act like the trade was good or bad because of reasons they didn’t know at the time it happened lol. Lardis trade was good because the Pete’s won the OHL despite finishing 4th in the East that year. Had they lost, it was a bad trade.. I personally don’t subscribe to that thinking, but clearly a lot of people do

There are a few different levels to this deal that may help to suggest it is an overpay. IMO, Bedkowski as a poor inclusion for this deal. He is a really good 18 year old d-Man. I think he plays that 4/5 D-Man role perfectly. That is the player you are trying to replace. So, you will need that extra deal to make it happen. If you run into a 2nd Sandhu deal this deadline then great. IF you don’t, that may end up being an issue.

That is the reason why I don’t like that deal. Now, if you end up getting Wang, then it likely all works out in the wash. The issue is I am not close enough to really suggest whether any of this inside stuff makes a difference or not. Clearly if there was a better than good chance you will replace Bedkowski for free then the deal makes sense.

And, this isn’t’ about the cost. It is about the awkwardness of the deal. If you could have saved a few draft picks in that deal, kept the two players but used Griffin, maybe it would have been a better combo? Again, I don’t know what is happening behind the scenes so really tough to say.

But, was the cost too high? It comes down to what you think Bedkowski and Delisle are worth. Personally, I have Bedkowski worth more than you but it is not like we are off by much. The trade value is in the ballpark. It would be nitpicking to argue about it.

 

[Generalsupdates]

There are a few different levels to this deal that may help to suggest it is an overpay. IMO, Bedkowski as a poor inclusion for this deal. He is a really good 18 year old d-Man. I think he plays that 4/5 D-Man role perfectly. That is the player you are trying to replace. So, you will need that extra deal to make it happen. If you run into a 2nd Sandhu deal this deadline then great. IF you don’t, that may end up being an issue.

That is the reason why I don’t like that deal. Now, if you end up getting Wang, then it likely all works out in the wash. The issue is I am not close enough to really suggest whether any of this inside stuff makes a difference or not. Clearly if there was a better than good chance you will replace Bedkowski for free then the deal makes sense.

And, this isn’t’ about the cost. It is about the awkwardness of the deal. If you could have saved a few draft picks in that deal, kept the two players but used Griffin, maybe it would have been a better combo? Again, I don’t know what is happening behind the scenes so really tough to say.

But, was the cost too high? It comes down to what you think Bedkowski and Delisle are worth. Personally, I have Bedkowski worth more than you but it is not like we are off by much. The trade value is in the ballpark. It would be nitpicking to argue about it.

It’s a lotttttt easier to add a defensive defenceman who can’t score than a 40+ goal every year guy. As you said, gens found that out last year with Sandhu who they got for very cheap (3+5+9 for 2.5 years of Sandhu). You won’t find a 1st round NHL pick non-import who’s a potential national team guy who comes cheap.

But regardless, that comment wasn’t actually about the Barlow trade. It’s saying too many people look back at a trade after the fact and use facts that weren’t available at the time to analyze it. Gens won it all in 2015 so do I care that they badly overpaid for Brent Pederson? No I don’t. But they did

 

[dirty12]

I think you would need to quantify that statement. The issue is that what is pricey for one person is cheap for another.

I’ve stated that if you want a solid OA at the deadline, the market is set at around a 2nd, 3rd, and 5th. If you want a super elite OA, the market is set at two 2nds, two 3rds, and two 4ths. If you want an elite 19 year old, look at the Rehkopf and Barlow deals and you get a sense of where that market is. These ones are relatively easy. No matter if the market is a buyer or seller market, these prices remain around the same.

Where is gets more sketchy is that 2nd and 3rd tier player. I pointed to Foster. GU pointed to Pharand. These are guys that hand around .75 to 1.00 points per game. They are solid players but fall into the complementary category. They don’t drive their lines but when you put them with good players, they perform very well. This is the tier of player that is heavily affected by supply and demand come the deadline.

It is my opinion that if you have 4 teams in each conference buying and two teams in each conference remaining status quo, that leaves 8 teams buying and eight teams selling. Of the eight teams selling, only four of them have players other teams want. That creates a situation where that team with second tier players start nudging the prices up more than normal.

I am not exactly sure where this market is right now but I see London, Erie, Saginaw, Windsor, Brampton, Barrie, OShawa, and Kingston as buyers. I see Kitchener and Brantford as status quo teams. Potentially SSM and Flint join those two teams in the status quo category. This is where it gets interesting. I see Sudbury and Niagara as potential buyers. If that happens, all of a sudden, the teams that are potential sellers shrinks dramatically. The Petes have nothing to buy. They aren’t in the conversation. That leaves Ottawa and North Bay in the East as the sellers. They join Guelph, OS, and Sarnia as potential sellers.

This sets up as a very tight market this year. Of course, some of those teams like Kitchener, Sudbury, and Saginaw could end up selling. Who knows? This is why the deadline may be very interesting.

I’m not sure what there is to quantify. If you want 1.5 seasons of a player that could be very useful to their next season like Pharrand or Ride, you’re paying VanVliet or Fimis and Haight prices. That is pricy (imo).

 

[OMG67]

I’m not sure what there is to quantify. If you want 1.5 seasons of a player that could be very useful to their next season like Pharrand or Ride, you’re paying VanVliet or Fimis and Haight prices. That is pricy (imo).

It is the qualitative statement vs the quantitative statement.

I am not saying you are wrong. What I am saying is when you (or anyone else) uses a qualitative statement, it leaves it open for interpretation. For example, I could say BMW’s are expensive and overpriced but that doesn’t mean the next guy agrees. People value $$$ differently as well as what constitutes quality. Same with these trades. When we say, “X Player will be more expensive than you think,” if we don’t qualify the actual price, how will anyone be able to compare apples to apples?

My point was that kids like Foster and Pharand in this market, may end up being more costly than usual. That’s fine. But, I didn’t say what the usual cost is for a tier II player because that cost is almost always wide ranging specifically because it fluctuates in the market. What I should have said is:

A player like Foster or Pharand would likely cost similar to Tyler Savard in 2022-23 (2-3-3-4). But, in a season like this where depth forwards are tougher to get, maybe his cost raises in line to what Windsor paid for Harrison (2-2-3-3-3-5).

Additionally, maybe a player like Pinelli that would normally fall in line with a player like Harrison ends up being more like DelMaestro (early 1st + 2nd round pick or mid-1st and two 2nds).

This is a year where if things remain as they are, there may not be a lot of players available on the market. We may see some weird deals. Conversely, if Sudbury, NB, Kitchener, Ottawa, Guelph etc all sell, the market could get flooded and the Barlow deal may not look as good as it does now.

So, if Oshawa wants a couple depth players that aren’t in high supply, the cost may not be as attractive or even attainable for OShawa as it was last year. It makes a big difference if the plan is to go and trade Smith (and a 2nd) in a big deal for a D-Man but then have to trade (2-3-5) for the OA and then another (2-2-3-3-4) for the depth .9 ppg forward. That exceeds Oshawa’s picks by a wide margin. This is why I say doing what they plan to do may not be as easy as we think. We will need to wait to see what the market holds.

 

[dirty12]

It is the qualitative statement vs the quantitative statement.

I am not saying you are wrong. What I am saying is when you (or anyone else) uses a qualitative statement, it leaves it open for interpretation. For example, I could say BMW’s are expensive and overpriced but that doesn’t mean the next guy agrees. People value $$$ differently as well as what constitutes quality. Same with these trades. When we say, “X Player will be more expensive than you think,” if we don’t qualify the actual price, how will anyone be able to compare apples to apples?

My point was that kids like Foster and Pharand in this market, may end up being more costly than usual. That’s fine. But, I didn’t say what the usual cost is for a tier II player because that cost is almost always wide ranging specifically because it fluctuates in the market. What I should have said is:

A player like Foster or Pharand would likely cost similar to Tyler Savard in 2022-23 (2-3-3-4). But, in a season like this where depth forwards are tougher to get, maybe his cost raises in line to what Windsor paid for Harrison (2-2-3-3-3-5).

Additionally, maybe a player like Pinelli that would normally fall in line with a player like Harrison ends up being more like DelMaestro (early 1st + 2nd round pick or mid-1st and two 2nds).

This is a year where if things remain as they are, there may not be a lot of players available on the market. We may see some weird deals. Conversely, if Sudbury, NB, Kitchener, Ottawa, Guelph etc all sell, the market could get flooded and the Barlow deal may not look as good as it does now.

So, if Oshawa wants a couple depth players that aren’t in high supply, the cost may not be as attractive or even attainable for OShawa as it was last year. It makes a big difference if the plan is to go and trade Smith (and a 2nd) in a big deal for a D-Man but then have to trade (2-3-5) for the OA and then another (2-2-3-3-4) for the depth .9 ppg forward. That exceeds Oshawa’s picks by a wide margin. This is why I say doing what they plan to do may not be as easy as we think. We will need to wait to see what the market holds.

My point was/is the wolves most certainly are not looking to trade Pharrand and NB has two good, maybe ideal OA options in Kennedy & Ride. Teams will need to pry those players away with a Protz, 2, 2, 3 like offer for VanVliet, who while good a good big shut down type, was just really not worth that cost.

 

[OMG67]

My point was/is the wolves most certainly are not looking to trade Pharrand and NB has two good, maybe ideal OA options in Kennedy & Ride. Teams will need to pry those players away with a Protz, 2, 2, 3 like offer for VanVliet, who while good a good big shut down type, was just really not worth that cost.

I was only using those players as examples for comparison. Situations for each team will dictate variances. I doubt Ottawa would move Foster for the same reason you pointed out for NB. However, if the market shrinks on supply and teams get a little more generous and Ottawa were to receive a (2-2-3-3-4) offer for Foster, I think they’d have to seriously consider it. Same with NB and Ride. The difference is Ottawa will rebuild next eyar more than likely so losing Foster isn’t the end of the World but I am sure they’d prefer to rebuild and remain competitive.

 

[Millpond]

100%. Just to clarify- I was kidding about him, was doing my best impression of someone who was advocating to keep him. I know there was rumours of a Konnor smith trade a while ago. With him being injured I assume they’d hold off on any trades regarding him until then? No way in hell should D’amato be with you guys past the deadline though. Just checked every team in the OHL’s roster and the only one that makes sense is Owen Sound IMO.

Or if kingston/brampton traded for a guy like Abraham/Owen Van Steensel/Swick then I could see D’amato finishing on one of those teams but right now it seems like either Owen Sound (with picks) for Smith or he will be Q bound

Owen Sound has 4 OA . Alec Leonard is out as well as Smith with an upper body injury .

Smith is out till Christmas, then likely a bit of rehab .

I'd imagine he is on the move and Leonard stays .
Unless Leonard is finished, I'd doubt the Attack would want another OA D.

 

[frontsfan67]

Owen Sound has 4 OA . Alec Leonard is out as well as Smith with an upper body injury .

Smith is out till Christmas, then likely a bit of rehab .

I'd imagine he is on the move and Leonard stays .
Unless Leonard is finished, I'd doubt the Attack would want another OA D.

Smith gets traded. MacDonald traded/waived then OA’s Leonard, D’Amato, Hookey would be the 3 I’d keep.

 

[Stellar29]

Smith gets traded. MacDonald traded/waived then OA’s Leonard, D’Amato, Hookey would be the 3 I’d keep.

Attack have 9 rostered D. Moving Smith leaves them with 8. I can't see them adding or even wanting two OAs on the back end in a year they are trying to develop the young roster pieces. Leonard was only acquired due to Konnor Smith's injury. D'Amato isn't a Dale DeGray type either. Doesn't make sense in a rebuild to give that many minutes to two OAs who won't be a part of this team in the future on the blueline.

 

[noahblake58]

Seriously. Seen some PBO fans saying Gens overpaid for Barlow despite not giving up a rookie 1st rounder or more than 2x2nd or 2x3rd and then say they didn’t overpay when they gave up Lardis for OAs.

As we know, “overpay” a lot of time isn’t determined until a year later when people use hindsight and act like the trade was good or bad because of reasons they didn’t know at the time it happened lol. Lardis trade was good because the Pete’s won the OHL despite finishing 4th in the East that year. Had they lost, it was a bad trade.. I personally don’t subscribe to that thinking, but clearly a lot of people do

People don’t talk enough about how Sarnia gave up Angus MacDonell and Porter Martone for 10 playoff wins one of the worst trades in recent memory that’s why I hate when u give up top end young players in these superstar trades and unlike what some people said Oshawa didn’t do that in the Barlow move

 

[Generalsupdates]

Haoxi Wang is ranked 1 spot below Kitchener stud D-man Cameron Reid in the recent Daily Faceoff NHL rankings


Also had a scout message me that Wang was the best player on the ice in the first OJHL vs CCHL prospect all-star game today



Hopefully he decides to join the Gens

 

[dirty12]

People don’t talk enough about how Sarnia gave up Angus MacDonell and Porter Martone for 10 playoff wins one of the worst trades in recent memory that’s why I hate when u give up top end young players in these superstar trades and unlike what some people said Oshawa didn’t do that in the Barlow move

That was a really, really good Sarnia team. Unfortunately the knights jersey seemed to be the sting’s kryptonite.
Moving a player like MacDonell is not that big a deal and easy enough to replace in a re-tool, certainly easier than replacing Bedowski in-season.
Moving Martone was very risky, though potentially franchise altering. I think there is good reason that only two that I am aware of top five picked rookies have been traded; both by Sarnia.

 

[Generalsupdates]

Haoxi Wang is ranked 1 spot below Kitchener stud D-man Cameron Reid in the recent Daily Faceoff NHL rankings


Also had a scout message me that Wang was the best player on the ice in the first OJHL vs CCHL prospect all-star game today



Hopefully he decides to join the Gens

Could be unrelated but King just traded for a defenceman today. Replacing Wang for when he commits to the Gens this week?? Hopefully

 

[Nerf27]

Could be unrelated but King just traded for a defenceman today. Replacing Wang for when he commits to the Gens this week?? Hopefully

Give us the Wang!

 

[OMG67]

People don’t talk enough about how Sarnia gave up Angus MacDonell and Porter Martone for 10 playoff wins one of the worst trades in recent memory that’s why I hate when u give up top end young players in these superstar trades and unlike what some people said Oshawa didn’t do that in the Barlow move

But they saved on draft picks. They only gave up a 2nd and two 4ths.

If that were a draft pick only deal now, that would be at least 18 draft picks with a team basically giving up 4 straight drafts worth of 2nds, 3rds, and 4ths plus additional 2nds and 3rds. That’s the trade off. Players instead of picks.

 

[Generalsupdates]

Insane that Griffin got 2 games for that hit on McGowan. Equally as insane that Uronen got 1 game for the hit on Sandhu, which shouldn't have even been a 5. The worst hit in the game was the Heyes one on Sennecke which didn't even get a penalty or suspension

 

[frontsfan67]

Insane that Griffin got 2 games for that hit on McGowan. Equally as insane that Uronen got 1 game for the hit on Sandhu, which shouldn't have even been a 5. The worst hit in the game was the Heyes one on Sennecke which didn't even get a penalty or suspension

Can’t believe either got suspended. Both weak as hell. Even 5 years ago I don’t think those are suspensions or majors

 

[Generalsupdates]

This Tony Ferrari projection has 4 (!) Gens on Team Canada. That would be a disaster for the month of December lol

 

[TuckerFan1]

This Tony Ferrari projection has 4 (!) Gens on Team Canada. That would be a disaster for the month of December lol

Woof. That would be a brutal month. The Athletic's projections just had Ritchie, which is the one guy I figured would have the best shot at making it. Sennecke is sure making a case for a good look though.

 

[Generalsupdates]

Woof. That would be a brutal month. The Athletic's projections just had Ritchie, which is the one guy I figured would have the best shot at making it. Sennecke is sure making a case for a good look though.

Yeah if I had to guess I’d say just Ritchie and Sennecke. Could see Barlow as the 13th F for his shot on the PP though

 

[OMG67]

Yeah if I had to guess I’d say just Ritchie and Sennecke. Could see Barlow as the 13th F for his shot on the PP though

I think politics alone gives Barlow the inside edge.

 

[Generalsupdates]

I think politics alone gives Barlow the inside edge.

Yeah NHL draft position and prior success with Team Canada are a huge factor. which help Sennecke and Barlow's chances

 

[OMG67]

Yeah NHL draft position and prior success with Team Canada are a huge factor. which help Sennecke and Barlow's chances

I would be shocked if Barlow weren’t on that roster. I wouldn’t be shocked if Senneke were not on the roster. The are difference is a factor. Both should be on that roster though. With Ritchie. Marrelli should also be a heavy consideration IMO. Decent size. 3rd round pick.

Dickinson and Bonk will obviously take two D-Man spots. Parekh will get a look I think. But, Marrelli should get a strong look.