They have the second highest shooting percentage in the league, but their underlying numbers are legitimately good. I'm still not sold on them as a true contender. They just don't have anything close to the top end talent that cup contenders have.
I guess they could pull the once in a decade Blues run where a mid team gets hot, but all of Toronto, Florida, the Devils, Carolina, and even Tampa are better teams.
Even with first in the metro, I could see them losing to a team like Boston or the Islanders in the first round. Ottawa is the only team I think they're clear favorites over.