Ondrej Pavelec - Part II (Mod note post #429)

[Joe Hallenback]

Their $ or not makes no difference in this equation. There is a huge huge difference in the payback by doing the buyout.

Options -- Making that 8.5 million payout (over the next 6 years I might add) or 12.75 million (over the next three).

To the first, you add in a bit of $ to pay for a UFA starter (or maybe they go with Monty/Hutch). As long as that starter doesn't cost more than 1.4 million a year you are already ahead.

Now factor in the chances of getting playoff revenue (option A) or Not (option B) for the next three years.

Factor in the fan discontent (from keeping Pavs) resulting in a huge drop in sales and fan support.

Factor in the additional cap space available if we rid ourselves of Pavs.

Etc, etc, etc .. the buyout makes sense from every possible angle -- financial & otherwise.

I don't think fan discontent is even in the picture until they can't sell those season tickets anymore.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Trades, free agency, Europe, etc.. all resources and avenues to improve your team. If you can get a quality goaltender, I don't see why you wouldn't do it even if it is via UFA.

In recent time, of the 16 playoff teams, 8 of them were acquired via trade.

Copied from a post of mine yesterday, (disregard the salaries if you wish)

Anaheim - Hiller $4.5 million
Boston - Rask $7 million
Chicago - Crawford $6 million
Colorado - Varlamov $5.9 million
Columbus - Bobrovsky $5.625
Dallas - Lehtonen $5.9 million
Detroit - Howard $5.292
LA - Quick $5.8 million
Minnesota - Backstrom $3.4 million (Even he just came off a contract that paid him $6 million per)
Montreal - Price $6.5 million
New York - Lundqvist $8.5 million
Philadelphia - Mason $4.1 million (I am not sold on him either, Holden)
Pittsburgh - Fleury $5 million
St. Louis - Miller $6.25 million
San Jose - Niemi $3.8 million
Tampa Bay - Ben Bishop $2.3 million

The only team I could name off the top of my head was San Jose with Niemi. The guy I really like is Hillier. I think he can be had short term with higher dollars.

 

[cbcwpg]

its already been mentioned several times, but that's really about the only thing the coach can say at this point. What, you think he's going to announce Chevy's intention to buy Pav's out in his end of season presser?

Nope, but he could have said that this is a non-playoff team and because of that 3 year fact that every player on the team will be evaluated to see if they fit into the long term plans of the team.

See, I didn't say Pavs or anyone else is going to be bought out... nor did I say we are going to stick with the goalie because we haven't been able to properly evaluate him.

If the coach said what I just typed then nobody is getting a free pass. This team talks about accountability to the point I'm getting sick of hearing about it. Do something about it because it appears that Pavs gets to keep his job if can get dressed.

 

[broinwhyteridge]

It's not the 1980s anymore.

Every team knows about every player and their abilities. They may not know what they are like in person or off the ice, but they know their skills. We are not going to pull the wool over another GM's eyes in regards to Pavs. Even if you just threw Pavs into the mix as part of another deal, nobody will bite, unless we eat a large portion of Pav's salary. And if we have to eat a large chunk of Pav's salary, we might as well buy him out.

He's might be a good backup goalie but not if you have to pay him $3.9MM. Pretty sure teams aren't knocking down Chevy's door to take on that contract.

Not quite every team; the Jets just needed three years of evaluation and apparently even that isn't enough.

 

[CaptainChef]

I don't think fan discontent is even in the picture until they can't sell those season tickets anymore.

Believe me -- if they do something as stupid as hanging onto Pavelec because they still think he has "potential" or they need to do "more assessment", the fan revolt will be substantial. Among other repercussions, I can see them creating enough backlash that they will no longer have a waiting list in three years

 

[peg]

Sigh... This should be a sticky FAQ... TNSE WILL SAVE MONEY BY BUYING OUT P******

• Buyouts cost 2/3rd of a player's remaining ***SALARY***, not cap hit.
• Due to his back-loaded contract P****** is due to get
  • 2014-15 $3,750,000
  • 2015-16 $4,250,000
  • 2016-17 $4,750,000
• TNSE will pay $12,750,000 WITHOUT a buyout
• TNSE will pay $8,500,000 WITH a buyout
• TNSE will save $4,250,000 over 3 years, an average of $1,416,666.67 per year
• For that money, we can easily get a .910 or .915 goalie
• And don't forget the extra revenues from making the playoffs

Slight correction, TNSE will save $4.25 million over 6 years. They will save $2.833 million per year for the next 3 years saving them $8.5 million during that period. They will then have to pay an extra $1.417 million for the following 3 years, resulting in a net saving of $4.25 million. Considering the time value of money the present value of the savings are actually quite a bit more than $4.25 million.

 

[scelaton]

Ok, I've listened to that press conference a couple times and had time to calm down/reassess. In retrospect he couldn't really say anything else if there is still the slightest chance that they might be able to pull off a trade (realistically there may be a team like Buff that needs a big cap hit to get to their minimum and who is OK with below average goaltending for a year or two if it happens -- they may also see some potential in what to us looks like a totally useless project).

Good, agree with the above and glad you've calmed down.

can see no way that Chevy would tie his future to a worthless project like Pavs at this stage. I still believe that if Pavs is still around after the buyout date, Chevy could very well beat Pavs out the door - not sure the fanbase would be understanding enough to allow him three more years of mediocrity steering this ship.

I thought you had calmed down...
First of all, the fan base will not determine much of anything re Chevy's future. He was signed to a long extension precisely to avoid short-term fan hysteria.
Secondly, although I would prefer a trade or buyout, there is a chance Pavs could be retained as a backup 1b to Hutchinson's (or other UFA's) 1a.
He is not a "worthless project" or fat good-for-nothing as some here are characterizing him. What he is (and I have said this for years) is undisciplined, mentally and physically. That can be worked on.
Buff, Kane and Pavs are all projects in discipline, for different reasons. I could easily see all, some or none of them on the team in a year. In terms of value to the team's future I see Kane >Buff>>>>...Pavs, but none of us knows how Maurice sees their 'fit' in his system or what they could garner in trade in the next few months.

 

[CaptainChef]

Good, agree with the above and glad you've calmed down.


I thought you had calmed down...
First of all, the fan base will not determine much of anything re Chevy's future. He was signed to a long extension precisely to avoid short-term fan hysteria.
Secondly, although I would prefer a trade or buyout, there is a chance Pavs could be retained as a backup 1b to Hutchinson's (or other UFA's) 1a.
He is not a "worthless project" or fat good-for-nothing as some here are characterizing him. What he is (and I have said this for years) is undisciplined, mentally and physically. That can be worked on.
Buff, Kane and Pavs are all projects in discipline, for different reasons. I could easily see all, some or none of them on the team in a year. In terms of value to the team's future I see Kane >Buff>>>>...Pavs, but none of us knows how Maurice sees their 'fit' in his system or what they could garner in trade in the next few months.

Yes, I can look at this rationally now, but indeed I do stand by my point that Chevy may not make three years if he fails to do the right thing here. Fans don't call the shots, but I've seen too many occasions where fan revolt makes it impossible to resist doing what a team/president/ whoever is reluctant to do. They reached that point with Noel -- I'm convinced they were not really prepared to fire him yet, but fan revolt was such that they had to do something.

I stand by my statement that he is about as worthless of a starting goaltender as there currently is in the NHL. At 27 he is past prime age for a goaltender. He's been in the NHL long enough to figure out what he needs to do to be even an average goalie in the NHL. he has worked with multiple goalie coaches yet he remains terrible at several aspects of his game. He is no longer an option in any way for the Jets future.

 

[Koonta]

"Before we assess any of our goaltenders, we've got to get it right in front of them."

-- Maurice

How would this quote go over "We are right where we want to be defensively and our team defense should've been good enough to get us into the playoffs this year" ? not to well either I would imagine

I really think Maurice's quote is not so much a ringing endorsement of Pavelec but an indication of this team still needing to improve on it's defensive play and he never wants to let them off the hook or make them feel comfortable in their play being good enough.

He is not the GM, he is not the one who will make a move on Pavelec, he is the coach and will continue to try and get the team to play the right way.

I have never recalled a coach ever really being 100% genuine in their appraisal of a goaltender to the media when they haven't been good enough (except when Torts was in Tampa and went off on his goaltending that 1 playoff year....Torts isn't a shining example of a NHL head coach in my opinion )

 

[Hank Chinaski]

I thought you had calmed down...
First of all, the fan base will not determine much of anything re Chevy's future. He was signed to a long extension precisely to avoid short-term fan hysteria.
Secondly, although I would prefer a trade or buyout, there is a chance Pavs could be retained as a backup 1b to Hutchinson's (or other UFA's) 1a.
He is not a "worthless project" or fat good-for-nothing as some here are characterizing him. What he is (and I have said this for years) is undisciplined, mentally and physically. That can be worked on.
Buff, Kane and Pavs are all projects in discipline, for different reasons. I could easily see all, some or none of them on the team in a year. In terms of value to the team's future I see Kane >Buff>>>>...Pavs, but none of us knows how Maurice sees their 'fit' in his system or what they could garner in trade in the next few months.

Even taking your extremely generous appraisal of Pavelec as reality, why would we want a 27 year-old goaltending project (read: little or no chance of marked improvement) at that contract?

You can sign better goaltenders for one year at league minimum. Come to think of it, the Jets did just that!

 

[Evil Little]

well obviously you can "buy him out" any year of his contract if all you want to do is give him all the contract money and then tell him to stay home. The point of buying him out now is to at the very least get back some of the money from a bad deal.

I believe that they would still save real money--less the extra salary of another one of his contract years--with a non-compliance buyout next summer.

Ondrej P****** buyout from CapGeek.com (6/15/2015):

2015-16: $1,150,000
2016-17: $650,000
2017-18: $1,500,000
2018-19: $1,500,000


(Though, again, he's the ****ing worst and please get him away from our Jets.)

 

[Gm0ney]

I believe that they would still save real money--less the extra salary of another one of his contract years--with a non-compliance buyout next summer.

Ondrej P****** buyout from CapGeek.com (6/15/2015):

2015-16: $1,150,000
2016-17: $650,000
2017-18: $1,500,000
2018-19: $1,500,000


(Though, again, he's the ****ing worst and please get him away from our Jets.)

You've just listed the cap hit penalty for exercising a non-compliance buyout next year.

In "real money" terms, the Jets would have to pay Pavelec's salary for next year ($3.75 million) and then buy him out for $1.5 million per year for 4 years: so that would be $9,750,000 down the drain, plus that extra cap hit until 2019...plus we'd have Pavelec playing games for the Jets next season.

 

[scelaton]

Even taking your extremely generous appraisal of Pavelec as reality, why would we want a 27 year-old goaltending project (read: little or no chance of marked improvement) at that contract?

You can sign better goaltenders for one year at league minimum. Come to think of it, the Jets did just that!

I agree, it makes most sense to trade him (I still think it's possible to trade his cap hit to another team in return for a different cap hit burden in a position of need), or buy him out. But I am willing to tolerate keeping him if there is a legitimate alternative #1.
I'm just a little tired of the extreme rhetoric ('...get rid of Pavs now or Chevy's got to go...'). Aren't you?

 

[Sweech]

I agree, it makes most sense to trade him (I still think it's possible to trade his cap hit to another team in return for a different cap hit burden in a position of need), or buy him out. But I am willing to tolerate keeping him if there is a legitimate alternative #1.
I'm just a little tired of the extreme rhetoric ('...get rid of Pavs now or Chevy's got to go...'). Aren't you?

If you have a manager who makes a big mistake and absolutely refuses to fix it, going so far as to keep your team out of the playoff every year, wouldn't you say that's grounds for dismissal?

Other than draft well in the 1st round what has Chevy done to cover for the entire mishandling of the Pavelec situation?

 

[Hank Chinaski]

I agree, it makes most sense to trade him (I still think it's possible to trade his cap hit to another team in return for a different cap hit burden in a position of need), or buy him out. But I am willing to tolerate keeping him if there is a legitimate alternative #1.
I'm just a little tired of the extreme rhetoric ('...get rid of Pavs now or Chevy's got to go...'). Aren't you?

Not really.

The benefits (several) and drawbacks (little to none) of buying out Pavelec have been laid out. Failing to buy him out would be pretty conclusive evidence that Chevy doesn't really see the big picture.

 

[Evil Little]

You've just listed the cap hit penalty for exercising a non-compliance buyout next year.

In "real money" terms, the Jets would have to pay Pavelec's salary for next year ($3.75 million) and then buy him out for $1.5 million per year for 4 years: so that would be $9,750,000 down the drain, plus that extra cap hit until 2019...plus we'd have Pavelec playing games for the Jets next season.

Yes I did. Did you read what I was quoting? Am I wrong?

Especially as it affects the product on the ice, a buyout this summer is vastly preferable to a buyout next summer. But I was just trying to illustrate that--to a non-cap ceiling team--it's not the 'now or neeeeeeevvvvvvveeeeeeerrrrrrrrr!!!!!1!' situation it's being painted as. Which I have been guilty of painting it as myself.

(Oh, man... Am I going to be shunned as a Pavs apologist now? Do I need to walk around with a scarlet 'sv%' sewn to my jacket?)

 

[Derfel*]

[*]TNSE will save $4,250,000 over 3 years, an average of $1,416,666.67 per year
[*]For that money, we can easily get a .910 or .915 goalie
[*]And don't forget the extra revenues from making the playoffs

Can you name a starting goalie with a .910 average available for 3 years at less than $1.5million a season?

 

[Derfel*]

Believe me -- if they do something as stupid as hanging onto Pavelec because they still think he has "potential" or they need to do "more assessment", the fan revolt will be substantial. Among other repercussions, I can see them creating enough backlash that they will no longer have a waiting list in three years

Speak for yourself - I'd be okay with Pavelec staying another season. I would certainly keep my season tickets, as I'm sure 7000 other fans would.

 

[Romang67]

The problem isn't just that we could have Pavelec next year if he isn't bought out this off-season. Edit: This wouldn't be the biggest problem. The problem is that our free mulligan goes away after this off-season, making sure that Pavelec and his 3.9M caphit will be around for 3 years more.

Now, what would you rather have:
The worst starting goalie in the league
OR
At worst, another, much cheaper, worst starting goalie in the league and cap space to make the team around him even stronger. Remember, this is the WORST CASE SCENARIO if we buy out Pavelec.

 

[SensibleGuy]

Can you name a starting goalie with a .910 average available for 3 years at less than $1.5million a season?

why would we want a .910 for 3 years? We already have Montoya and I'm pretty sure we can keep him for less than 1.5 million per...

 

[CaptainChef]

Speak for yourself - I'd be okay with Pavelec staying another season. I would certainly keep my season tickets, as I'm sure 7000 other fans would.

I think you and the other 20% of fans that don't understand just how terrible he is would be OK with keeping him. Its not a year to year decision at this point, if they keep him beyond the buyout date, they will have given up their last chance (for the next three years) to relieve him of his duties

 

[Sweech]

Can you name a starting goalie with a .910 average available for 3 years at less than $1.5million a season?

Why does it have to be 3 years?

Pavelec isn't providing that, so it's a moot point.

 

[Derfel*]

I think you and the other 20% of fans that don't understand just how terrible he is would be OK with keeping him. Its not a year to year decision at this point, if they keep him beyond the buyout date, they will have given up their last chance (for the next three years) to relieve him of his duties

I know how bad he was... this year. I doubt 80% of season tickets holders would walk if they don't buy him out this summer. That's just silly thinking. I know I'd be at the home opener cheering whether Pavelec was in net or not.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

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