GDT: ONCE MORE UNTO THE BREACH, DEAR FRIENDS, ONCE MORE

[Svechhammer]

I think the point is they shouldn’t have been a wildcard team to begin with.

But at the end of the day, it doesn't change the fact that they are a Wild Card team, and got in the playoffs by an absolute razor thin margin.

I'm not arguing that they aren't good. They are better than your typical Wild Card team and got exceptional play from their goaltending in this run. But at the end of the day, they are the WC2 from the East, that's just a fact.

 

[tarheelhockey]

But at the end of the day, it doesn't change the fact that they are a Wild Card team, and got in the playoffs by an absolute razor thin margin.

I'm not arguing that they aren't good. They are better than your typical Wild Card team and got exceptional play from their goaltending in this run. But at the end of the day, they are the WC2 from the East, that's just a fact.

You said it was a huge disappointment to get swept by a WC. If you’re not implying that they were a weaker opponent, then what was the point of identifying them as a WC rather than, say, saying they were one of the best and hottest teams we’ve seen all year?

 

[Svechhammer]

You said it was a huge disappointment to get swept by a WC. If you’re not implying that they were a weaker opponent, then what was the point of identifying them as a WC rather than, say, saying they were one of the best and hottest teams we’ve seen all year?

I think its a huge disappointment to get swept by anyone, but when you have the 2nd best record in the league and you're swept by a wild card team (again, fact), it does add more sting.

 

[Ole Gil]

I think the big surprise for me, is that the Canes weren't able to exploit the Florida defense. Why was Mark Staal looking pretty good all of a sudden? I really thought they were going to get in on that dcore. Although, it could come down to not having the jump because never fully recovered from the ole 4ot game?

 

[DaveG]

I think the big surprise for me, is that the Canes weren't able to exploit the Florida defense. Why was Mark Staal looking pretty good all of a sudden? I really thought they were going to get in on that dcore. Although, it could come down to not having the jump because never fully recovered from the ole 4ot game?

I think that was part of it and part that our guys that can bang AND produce offensively were out of commission. That game 1 going to 4OT kept us from making the needed tactical adjustments after game 1, which led to game 2 being lost because of the same mistakes. We got goalie'd in game 3, and to an extent ref'd in game 4. Series over.

 

[Lempo]

But at the end of the day, it doesn't change the fact that they are a Wild Card team, and got in the playoffs by an absolute razor thin margin.

If it wasn't for the 4OT game, I might argue that they are so much in control that they do only the absolute minimum needed to go forward and conserve their power.

Rod is getting flak for his comment that it wasn't a legit sweep sweep, but actually, you only need to run up the scores if you're insecure about your capability to take the game.

Florida Panthers is playing their games like we do our GDTs - wins through minimum effort.

 

[The Faulker 27]

I think the big surprise for me, is that the Canes weren't able to exploit the Florida defense. Why was Mark Staal looking pretty good all of a sudden? I really thought they were going to get in on that dcore. Although, it could come down to not having the jump because never fully recovered from the ole 4ot game?

I blame Necas.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

I think the big surprise for me, is that the Canes weren't able to exploit the Florida defense. Why was Mark Staal looking pretty good all of a sudden? I really thought they were going to get in on that dcore. Although, it could come down to not having the jump because never fully recovered from the ole 4ot game?

After Game 1, I really thought the Canes could get great matchups against him at least in Game 2. But, their system (dump out, dump in) really does make Staal look at least serviceable. And their forwards are super responsible and helpful in their own zone.

 

[Ole Gil]

After Game 1, I really thought the Canes could get great matchups against him at least in Game 2. But, their system (dump out, dump in) really does make Staal look at least serviceable. And their forwards are super responsible and helpful in their own zone.

Yeah, definitely could see the difference between Panthers giving an outlet vs. Jack Hughes already at center ice.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Mistakes that don't end up in the back of the net are inherently not memorable and thus, have a tendency to be forgotten. Forsling would have been ripped for a lack of awareness that Necas got behind him on that breakway in Game 1. Gudas had a soft clear on the Drury disallowed goal in Game 2. And so on.

Staal and Montour had an appalling 5.59 5v5 xGA/60 in the series. Don't be surprised if that pair looks bad, if Bobrovsky comes down to Earth next round.

Per NST, the Canes generated 3.14 5v5 xGF/60 this series. That's almost a full goal better than the Tampa series in 21 and more than it against Boston in 19 and 20.

 

[Ole Gil]

Mistakes that don't end up in the back of the net are inherently not memorable and thus, have a tendency to be forgotten. Forsling would have been ripped for a lack of awareness that Necas got behind him on that breakway in Game 1. Gudas had a soft clear on the Dury disallowed goal in Game 2. And so on.

Staal and Montour had an appalling 5.59 5v5 xGA/60 in the series. Don't be surprised if that pair looks bad, if Bobrovsky comes down to Earth next round.

Per NST, the Canes generated 3.14 5v5 xGF/60 this series. That's almost a full goal better than the Tampa series in 21 and more than it against Boston in 19 and 20.

Canes offense is so weird, it's hard to trust these expected goal numbers.

 

[Canes]

Canes offense is so weird, it's hard to trust these expected goal numbers.

I mean that's kind of the point, xG is exactly that... expected goals. A team with poor finishers will most likely underperform the metric.

Expected Goals (xG) Models Explained

<em>(Editors Note: <strong><a href="https://twitter.com/YuriGelfat">Yu...

jetsnation.ca

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

That's why I brought up performance in prior series for comparison. Same system, much greater difficulty getting quality chances against top tier defensive opponents.

 

[Svechhammer]

I mean that's kind of the point, xG is exactly that... expected goals. A team with poor finishers will most likely underperform the metric.

Expected Goals (xG) Models Explained

<em>(Editors Note: <strong><a href="https://twitter.com/YuriGelfat">Yu...

jetsnation.ca

I put it in the Offseason thread, but worth relaying here as well. This Canes core now represents the opponent of 2 of the 5 goalies who had the highest save percentage in the conference finals since 1980. Not great for our only 2 appearances there.

We knew our finishing was bad, but it's seriously BAD bad.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I think its a huge disappointment to get swept by anyone, but when you have the 2nd best record in the league and you're swept by a wild card team (again, fact), it does add more sting.

I get it, but I don't think it's necessary to feel that way when the WC team is what this Panthers team is. I don't know anyone who at this point in time is regarding the Panthers as an 8-seed. It's fully understood that they are something different on the ice than they are on paper.

 

[LakeLivin]

I think its a huge disappointment to get swept by anyone, but when you have the 2nd best record in the league and you're swept by a wild card team (again, fact), it does add more sting.

And . . . we've come full circle, lol.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Florida being a WC team is indeed a fact, it's just a completely irrelevant fact.

With changes in coaching and personnel, it sometimes takes time to gel. Here are more facts:
Florida had the best record in the NHL last year.
Florida added a top 10 forward to their roster this year.
Florida was healthy this year.
Florida got better goaltending then they got at any time last year.
Florida beat 3 top 4 teams in the NHL in the playoffs this year.

 

[hockeynjune]

BBA got it right. It all came together when Bob got hot. They obliterated Boston, not sure we were up to that. Hey I was entertained and will be right back on the bandwagon in the fall.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

You know what’s wild? Despite it being the obvious decision, I have yet to see “Cat-egory 4” or something similar from Florida’s social media team. It’s like they’re not even trying…

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

In the end, one thing that I worried about coming in reared its ugly head: an opposing PP on a heater. It's the 4th time in 5 seasons that's happened.

In Florida's 11-1 stretch, inclusive of the series, the Panthers have converted at 34.4%. For the playoffs as a whole, they're on the precipice of the 30% club.

I feel like you can see the confidence; the Canes high pressure PK looks amateurish in the face of rapid puck movement.

I'm at a loss with this, frankly.

 

[dogbazinho]

Adjustments.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

In the end, one thing that I worried about coming in reared its ugly head: an opposing PP on a heater. It's the 4th time in 5 seasons that's happened.

In Florida's 11-1 stretch, inclusive of the series, the Panthers have converted at 34.4%. For the playoffs as a whole, they're on the precipice of the 30% club.

I feel like you can see the confidence; the Canes high pressure PK looks amateurish in the face of rapid puck movement.

I'm at a loss with this, frankly.

True, even with that, that Canes gave up only 10 goals in 16-17 periods of hockey against FLA. That's equivalent to less than 2 goals per regulation game, so while the PK was only 70% (ish), Bob's play and the lack of scoring is what really did them in against Florida.

You aren't winning many games/series when you only score 6 goals in 16-17 periods of hockey.

 

[Joe McGrath]

If we’re going to be that pedantic about it, then I’ll clarify: he’s less than half a PPG in the playoffs. 38 point pace this year, down from 71. 36 point pace in his career, down from 67.

Those are horrible numbers and not explainable by postseason defensive tightness. He legitimately disappears in the spring and it’s a pronounced pattern.

To be fair to him he disappeared the entirety of last season.

 

[chaz4hockey]

I think the big surprise for me, is that the Canes weren't able to exploit the Florida defense. Why was Mark Staal looking pretty good all of a sudden? I really thought they were going to get in on that dcore. Although, it could come down to not having the jump because never fully recovered from the ole 4ot game?

Fl has a big, physical defense that often stopped us from getting to the net and their big forwards did a lot of hhhm "slowing us down" (similar to Tampa's approach) slowing down our aggressive in the zone forecheck.

 

[wolfofthesteppes]

You know what’s wild? Despite it being the obvious decision, I have yet to see “Cat-egory 4” or something similar from Florida’s social media team. It’s like they’re not even trying…