Once again, skidding into the playoffs...

[ThrowDemTongs]

2nd in the division, 4th in conf, 3rd best road record in the league of 32 teams.

It's just never ending misery in this section, I'm starting to see why so many people hate the leaf's as it seems like many of their own fans hate them as well...

Bro we have won ONE round in the last zillion years. This actually makes the regular season success even worse. You spend the better part of a year getting your hopes up for an inevitable letdown.

 

[Jojalu]

The thing that annoys me about Matthews conversations and him applying himself in the rough and tumble stuff. If the difference in winning and losing is him applying himself at a fraction of Matthew Tkachuk, why is he excused from those things? Especially when playing with more power would make him more difficult to play against?

This is why I don't fully buy into analytics. For the most part they refuse to accept intangibles.

Matthews can score, he blocks shots, throws around hits, wins draws and for the most part plays a responsible 200 foot game. Seems like a perfect player.

For whatever reason, he doesn't seem to play with a chip on his shoulder like all of the alltime greats. Being blessed with his size he should be able to will himself into scoring. He has shown flashes of being able to do so, but it's never been enough.

Matthews has better tools than Tkachuk and while I don't think je needs to be a pest like him, he can learn from his game to get his to the next level come playoff time

 

[Gary Nylund]

This is why I don't fully buy into analytics. For the most part they refuse to accept intangibles.

Good for you. Analytics can be fun to look at and discuss but drawing conclusions from them is a bad idea.

Matthews can score, he blocks shots, throws around hits, wins draws and for the most part plays a responsible 200 foot game. Seems like a perfect player.

For whatever reason, he doesn't seem to play with a chip on his shoulder like all of the alltime greats. Being blessed with his size he should be able to will himself into scoring. He has shown flashes of being able to do so, but it's never been enough.

We saw flashes of it last spring just before he got hurt. The Leaf curse strikes again!

Matthews has better tools than Tkachuk and while I don't think je needs to be a pest like him, he can learn from his game to get his to the next level come playoff time

Exactly.

 

[thusk]

This is why I don't fully buy into analytics. For the most part they refuse to accept intangibles.

Matthews can score, he blocks shots, throws around hits, wins draws and for the most part plays a responsible 200 foot game. Seems like a perfect player.

For whatever reason, he doesn't seem to play with a chip on his shoulder like all of the alltime greats. Being blessed with his size he should be able to will himself into scoring. He has shown flashes of being able to do so, but it's never been enough.

Matthews has better tools than Tkachuk and while I don't think je needs to be a pest like him, he can learn from his game to get his to the next level come playoff time

Matthews/Marner from 4 nation final who was all over the ice and best player of their team. If Leafs see their 2 best player the way they did on that final during all playoff, we will see a complete new team because the rest of the team will follow them.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Matthews/Marner from 4 nation final who was all over the ice and best player of their team. If Leafs see their 2 best player the way they did on that final during all playoff, we will see a complete new team because the rest of the team will follow them.

And the odds if this happening are maybe 2% so we definitely have hope! GLG!!

 

[thusk]

And the odds if this happening are maybe 2% so we definitely have hope! GLG!!

I think both can use this tournment experience to reach next step just by how people who had succes in the past reacting or whatever.

What are their mindset because honestly i think #1 issue with core came about being affraid to make mistake but you can't go in those kind of game and play with fear.

I think especially Marner who saw player like Crosby just play and give everything he could no matter what and just f*** the rest. Leafs need to enter in playoff with that kind of mentallity, not about thinking trying to change the past or they're gonna lost. Difference between winning and losing are pretty thin...

 

[Gary Nylund]

I think both can use this tournment experience to reach next step just by how people who had succes in the past reacting or whatever.

What are their mindset because honestly i think #1 issue with core came about being affraid to make mistake but you can't go in those kind of game and play with fear.

I think especially Marner who saw player like Crosby just play and give everything he could no matter what and just f*** the rest. Leafs need to enter in playoff with that kind of mentallity, not about thinking trying to change the past or they're gonna lost. Difference between winning and losing are pretty thin...

Yeah I understand the theory, can't say I have much faith in this actually happening though.

Highly paid pros who have played all their life, you'd think they'd know by now how to play in big games - give it everything you got. It's not complicated and you shouldn't need to be within 3 feet of Crosby to know this.

 

[Stephen]

This is why I don't fully buy into analytics. For the most part they refuse to accept intangibles.

Matthews can score, he blocks shots, throws around hits, wins draws and for the most part plays a responsible 200 foot game. Seems like a perfect player.

For whatever reason, he doesn't seem to play with a chip on his shoulder like all of the alltime greats. Being blessed with his size he should be able to will himself into scoring. He has shown flashes of being able to do so, but it's never been enough.

Matthews has better tools than Tkachuk and while I don't think je needs to be a pest like him, he can learn from his game to get his to the next level come playoff time

To put thing diplomatically with the analytical community, data should be a used as a compendium to a sophisticated hockey person and read in conjunction with eye test and understanding of human psychology and group dynamics. You are not seeing the code in the Matrix on numbers alone.

Where the “conservation of Matthews” is concerned, it’s all bullshit. The idea that you have this special player and he should be used judiciously and with excused from all the rough and tumble things because they put you at a disadvantage, risk injury simply deflates the player and holds him to a lower standard of what he is capable of and should be pushed to do.

We saw him take a back seat to Brady Tkachuk at Four Nations, who also managed to get banged up. Why is it okay for Brady to risk this and that to try and win? What does it look like when we play Ottawa one day and their captain is going through a wall to make something happen and ours is held in safe harbour, just focus on the PP and don’t get hurt? This baseball-y budgeting of player usage is not how greatness happens.

 

[thusk]

Yeah I understand the theory, can't say I have much faith in this actually happening though.

Highly paid pros who have played all their life, you'd think they'd know by now how to play in big games - give it everything you got. It's not complicated and you shouldn't need to be within 3 feet of Crosby to know this.

Before Florida reach the stanley cup final, how many playoff round did they won previous like 20-25 years? 1 and chocking at the end of regular season to miss playoff is not more prestigious than chocking in playoff

The years they finally got result, they made playoff for the only reason Pittsburgh was chocking against one of worst NHL team or they would be out of playoff...

The year a lot of people stop believing caps core could ever win something in playoff is the year they finally won it


You never know when thing gonna change

 

[tuckerintensity]

The Panthers were 7-6-1 last March. It matters little, none of the regular season results really matter for us, the question is does Craig Berube change things in the playoffs? We won't know until we see it, but our record the last ten doesn't mean anything at all about what really matters.

 

[Sypher04]

To put thing diplomatically with the analytical community, data should be a used as a compendium to a sophisticated hockey person and read in conjunction with eye test and understanding of human psychology and group dynamics. You are not seeing the code in the Matrix on numbers alone.

Where the “conservation of Matthews” is concerned, it’s all bullshit. The idea that you have this special player and he should be used judiciously and with excused from all the rough and tumble things because they put you at a disadvantage, risk injury simply deflates the player and holds him to a lower standard of what he is capable of and should be pushed to do.

We saw him take a back seat to Brady Tkachuk at Four Nations, who also managed to get banged up. Why is it okay for Brady to risk this and that to try and win? What does it look like when we play Ottawa one day and their captain is going through a wall to make something happen and ours is held in safe harbour, just focus on the PP and don’t get hurt? This baseball-y budgeting of player usage is not how greatness happens.

He did not take a backseat to Brady Tkachuk in any other way than the “tough guy” sideshow Brady and Matthew made of things.

On the ice and when the games mattered most Matthews was the best player for the US.

 

[arso40]

That's true, but the betting public is so much smarter than they were in days of old that they're almost the same anyway. One of the more popular arguments people love is that there are so many Leaf fans, so the lines on them are such that the payouts are less than they should be as people will bet them regardless. I always say no, that's just not true and today we seem to have evidence to refute this claim.

This is fanduel odds right now. You'd think if the theory of adjusting the lines for the Leafs was true, the line would be maybe +1000 instead of +1600.

Ranking us 10th our of all the contenders seems pretty accurate to me, and I'd guess it's an accurate reflection of who is likely to win and also who people are betting on to win.


View attachment 999041

I’d have avs first for sure and then Florida Colorado is good money at that number if it’s not the leafs of course

 

[arso40]

He did not take a backseat to Brady Tkachuk in any other way than the “tough guy” sideshow Brady and Matthew made of things.

On the ice and when the games mattered most Matthews was the best player for the US.

Eichel

 

[Sypher04]

Eichel

Disagree.

 

[arso40]

Disagree.

That’s fair for you to do so I can’t argue if you think Matthews was better from what I watched I’d give the nod to eichel but the fact it’s even close is saying something eichel was healthy as far as we know and Matthews definitely was not

 

[Nineteen67]

What do you mean "good"?

Seriously. They have one playoff series win in 8 seasons.

4 of the 9 series they lost were against teams that they finished higher in the standings/had more points. For 5 they were the lower seed but as we've seen many times (up close, see my previous point) the lower seed can pull off an upset. Not with this team however.

Expectations-wise then, the Leafs should have won at least 5-6 series by now, or at least 3-4 if you're being really, really forgiving/generous. And the one they did win was against a very tired Lightning team that had just gone to the final 3 years in a row and were ripe for beating (which still took the Leafs until game 6 OT to do).

The only real disappoints ... is this team.

Have you seen the roster they had going into each playoff series? The number of holes in the lineup at key positions made it extremely difficult for them to win in the playoffs. Look at the D, goaltending, and the forwards and your expectations were to win 5 or 6 series?
The fact that they made it to 7 games and actually won a round is an accomplishment, in my opinion.

 

[Nineteen67]

The betting lines are usually pretty accurate. Not 100% accurate but close enough that they're backed with huge sums of money and profitable.

Worn down over 7 games maybe, but squished in game 7. IIRC that MTL series was the only one where game 7 was close, usually we lose something like 3-0, 3-1 etc.

Why are we always the ones that get worn down?

They lost in OT last year.

 

[Sypher04]

They lost in OT last year.

Yup, and lost 2-1 in game 7 the first of the two times we played Tampa. Beat them in 6 the second time.

 

[Stephen]

He did not take a backseat to Brady Tkachuk in any other way than the “tough guy” sideshow Brady and Matthew made of things.

On the ice and when the games mattered most Matthews was the best player for the US.

Look where it got them.

 

[arso40]

I think both can use this tournment experience to reach next step just by how people who had succes in the past reacting or whatever.

What are their mindset because honestly i think #1 issue with core came about being affraid to make mistake but you can't go in those kind of game and play with fear.

I think especially Marner who saw player like Crosby just play and give everything he could no matter what and just f*** the rest. Leafs need to enter in playoff with that kind of mentallity, not about thinking trying to change the past or they're gonna lost. Difference between winning and losing are pretty thin...

Not the core Matthews and marner stop lumping the rest in they haven’t lead the other 3 have had their moments those two need to be elite if they’re gonna play together

 

[Nineteen67]

He did not take a backseat to Brady Tkachuk in any other way than the “tough guy” sideshow Brady and Matthew made of things.

On the ice and when the games mattered most Matthews was the best player for the US.

He was good, but the team was lead by Tkachuk and Eichel.

 

[Sypher04]

He was good, but the team was lead by Tkachuk and Eichel.

It’s debatable overall for the tournament but I certainly don’t agree when it comes to the final game.

Matthews
Tkachuk
Eichel

In that order.

 

[Confucius]

The Panthers were 7-6-1 last March. It matters little, none of the regular season results really matter for us, the question is does Craig Berube change things in the playoffs? We won't know until we see it, but our record the last ten doesn't mean anything at all about what really matters.

Why would he change things? Wasn’t the whole hire to play the Bérubé way right from preseason. Getting away from the old idea of playing regular season one way and then playing in the playoffs a different way.

 

[arso40]

It’s debatable overall for the tournament but I certainly don’t agree when it comes to the final game.

Matthews
Tkachuk
Eichel

In that order.

Final game Matthews has them beat for sure

 

[keonsbitterness]

Analytics can be fun to look at and discuss but drawing conclusions from them is a bad idea.

Drawing conclusions for the playoffs is not seeing the forest for the trees.

You never know when thing gonna change

This is true.