Oilers were overwhelmingly #1 cup favorites going into the season. Are they still #1 today?

[BraveCanadian]

That’s a really terrible metric to judge current teams. It’s not recency bias to think 5 playoffs ago is meaningless to today.

Yeah, even if teams didn’t have turnover (which they do) the players are generally not the same across 5 years of their careers.

 

[thekernel]

I don't consider them a top 3 contender, but if I was a gambling man I wouldn't dare bet against the will of McDavid

 

[catters078]

East contenders to win conference (in my own personal order)

Panthers
Devils
Hurricanes
Leafs

West Contenders to win conference (in my order)

Oilers
Avs
Vegas
Jets

Think the Cup finalists will come from that group, could see any make it.

Minnesota - Seem to be 1 year away, maybe the coming cap relief will allow them to round out a championship team. Have the top end talent and young skill that helps with cap flex.

Dallas - lack a top 20 skill player. They do have cap room and badly need a top end forward, but unsure what they can get through a trade. Can't score enough in a tough playoff series to win 3 or 4 series.

Kings - likely to run into Vegas or Oilers again, good team and well balanced just think this format will send them home in round 1 again.

Capitals - improved enough to win a playoff series, but that's that's ceiling I feel. A bit unproven for forward talent in a tight playoff matchup.

Lightning - fun to watch and dangerous, but they will face Florida or Toronto and I feel not be able to keep up.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

People saying “idk if they can win with Skinner” like he didn’t get them within two goals of a cup lmfao

 

[NeverForget06]

Timmy is a top 5 center this year easily, and Tkachuk is easily a top 5 winger also Sanderson is on the verge of becoming a top ten D.

Put up a poll and see if people say Stuzle is a top 5 centre in the league

Draisaitl, McDavid, Barkov, Mackinnon, Eichel, Reinhart, Point, Crosby, Necas, Scheifle - there’s 10 that are better than “Timmy”

I won’t even do Brady lol - guy has achieved what as a captain? Great leader

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

They're a top 10 favourite at best.

 

[gritdash60]

West Contenders to win conference (in my order)

Oilers
Avs
Vegas
Jets

Leaving Wild and Stars out and putting Avs in is recency bias, im not saying Avs arent in the conversation but both of the teams i mentioned look better than Avs this far imo. You can hide the problem between the pipes by scoring like they do, but can you do it in playoffs?

 

[Jack Spider]

The standings are volatile (tm) and I always root for a 7-8th seed or the team with the best player. Edmonton is a safe choice every year.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

They're pretty much following the same trajectory as last year, but got in gear a little bit sooner this time.

Hard to not have them near the top.

 

[catters078]

Leaving Wild and Stars out and putting Avs in is recency bias, im not saying Avs arent in the conversation but both of the teams i mentioned look better than Avs this far imo. You can hide the problem between the pipes by scoring like they do, but can you do it in playoffs?

I like the Blackwood addition for them.

They probably need a depth piece on their bottom 6 and a depth defenseman, but their top guys are that good..I could see them start to dominate and finish in a 2 v 3 central matchup and go from there

 

[Hint1k]

That’s a really terrible metric to judge current teams. It’s not recency bias to think 5 playoffs ago is meaningless to today.

What you said is a definition of a recency bias.

And 5 playoffs ago is the right metric when you do not want to be biased.

 

[Murzu]

Leaving Wild and Stars out and putting Avs in is recency bias, im not saying Avs arent in the conversation but both of the teams i mentioned look better than Avs this far imo. You can hide the problem between the pipes by scoring like they do, but can you do it in playoffs?

You missed the goalie trades?

I like the Blackwood addition for them.

They probably need a depth piece on their bottom 6 and a depth defenseman, but their top guys are that good..I could see them start to dominate and finish in a 2 v 3 central matchup and go from there

Yup. Decent 3C and a steady bottom pairing D and the Avs are cooking.

Not afraid of Edmonton, they will allow a lot of goals against in the playoffs. Stars are a lot scarier team for example. So are the Jets IMO. And this is only from the west. Oilers are between 5-10.

 

[MessierThanThou]

Their D is actually quite good, only can be questioned because of the guy backing them up.

I agree. I really think it's as simple as getting a better goalie. Every metric except goaltending puts us right near the top.

Top 3 seems fair. Skinner has been playing well lately but he can be pretty damn inconsistent. The team is playing really well. They are not a run and gun team like they used to be, they play a pretty structured and disciplined game.

Also the Oilers are having more success with sustained zone time instead of just relying rush offence or the PP like they used to 3-4 years ago. They are a grizzled and experienced team. Strong analytics and possession numbers along with their playing style all bode well come playoff time. Could be a bit more physical but I expect that to ramp up during the playoffs.

Having said that it’s tough with the salary cap, but every team is in the same boat. Every top team has some holes in it due to the salary cap constraints.

The playoffs are such a grind as well, lots needs to go right for any team.

The Oilers could add a bit more size and physicality with some speed in the bottom 6 and a top 4 D man at the deadline should be high priority along with getting Kane back before the playoffs.

All in all I like their chances as much as anyone. This year seems pretty wide open for the taking for them but the same could be said for a couple of other teams as well like Florida, Vegas, etc.

Skinner is being inflated by the team's stellar defense, hence why he's almost never able to stop Bouchard's mistakes. He's a total liability if the Oilers don't keep shots to the perimeter and play air-tight D and that's basically impossible in the playoffs. Honestly, Nurse-Kulak is a great second-pairing and we shouldn't fix what isn't broke. After two post-seasons where Skinner was so bad that his playoff numbers are near all-time terrible, even when including the Dallas series, management should be a lot smarter than trusting him with McDrai's peak yet again.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

You missed the goalie trades?



Yup. Decent 3C and a steady bottom pairing D and the Avs are cooking.

Not afraid of Edmonton, they will allow a lot of goals against in the playoffs. Stars are a lot scarier team for example. So are the Jets IMO. And this is only from the west. Oilers are between 5-10.

That's an interesting take. The difference in GA/gp last playoffs between Dallas and Edmonton was 0.07, virtually identical. This season it's 0.2. Both teams are in the top-8 of the NHL.

 

[Murzu]

That's an interesting take. The difference in GA/gp last playoffs between Dallas and Edmonton was 0.07, virtually identical. This season it's 0.2. Both teams are in the top-8 of the NHL.

I have zero trust in Skinner or the defensive play of the Oilers. Fair or not, numbers backing it or not. Nurse and Bouchard will have a lot of defensive lapses and I dont trust their team defense either, even though people at the moment speak wonders of Draisaitl's defensive play.

They're free to prove me wrong though. Timely defensive lapses and goaltending will be their biggest downfalls IMO.

 

[AnInjuredJasonZucker]

What you said is a definition of a recency bias.

And 5 playoffs ago is the right metric when you do not want to be biased.

Eliminating irrelevent data is not recency bias. The players are different on the teams, so what they did 5 years ago has no bearing on projections for the 2025 playoffs.

Also funny to insist that the arbitrary 5 years is the "right metric."

 

[Hint1k]

Eliminating irrelevent data is not recency bias. The players are different on the teams, so what they did 5 years ago has no bearing on projections for the 2025 playoffs.

Also funny to insist that the arbitrary 5 years is the "right metric."

What is funny it is how people arbitrary choose definitions. At least google what "recency bias" means before posting. Because what you said is also recency bias.

"I am not recency biased I just do not accept anything other than the recent data". (c) People on HF.

 

[GermanRocket7]

Edmonton with an actual goaltender could be scary good, despite having one of the worse defenses out of all the contender teams.

 

[MessierThanThou]

I have zero trust in Skinner or the defensive play of the Oilers. Fair or not, numbers backing it or not. Nurse and Bouchard will have a lot of defensive lapses and I dont trust their team defense either, even though people at the moment speak wonders of Draisaitl's defensive play.

They're free to prove me wrong though. Timely defensive lapses and goaltending will be their biggest downfalls IMO.

You would be correct like two months ago, but Nurse has been saved by his pairing with Kulak. He's playing the best hockey of his career and they're a legit second pairing. The Oilers defense is actually outstanding right now, they just don't have the luxury of a goalie who can stop mistakes, so they lead to goals every time and Bouchard looks so much worse.

Almost every metric points to goaltending as our problem. Skinner has looked decent lately because the team's defensive play is good enough to shield his numbers, hence why Pickard, a guy who dwindled for years in the minors, has a save percentage above 900. Look at most games and you'll see Skinner facing fewer high-danger chances than the opposing goalie.

People saying “idk if they can win with Skinner” like he didn’t get them within two goals of a cup lmfao

People saying Skinner "got them within two goals of a cup" as if he didn't get benched in the second round and almost cost them Game 7 of that series too...

 

[BoHorvat 53]

Even when they had a bad record to start the season, their underlying profile suggested they were going to figure things out with just a little bit of puck luck going their way + their PP locking in. I still have them as favourites, just as I did pre-season, but that gap has shrunk because of the Caps (Yes, those Caps who have been a dominant team this year even without Ovi), the Devils (Who look like the favourites to come out of the East) and the Panthers (Obviously defending Cup Champions, was expecting a Cup hangover of sorts but hasn't happened).

 

[AnInjuredJasonZucker]

What is funny it is how people arbitrary choose definitions. At least google what "recency bias" means before posting. Because what you said is also recency bias.

"I am not recency biased I just do not accept anything other than the recent data". (c) People on HF.

Sorry, my friend. You're out of your depth on this one.

The Habs might do some damage because of Newsy Lalonde's elite playoff performance, I guess.

 

[Hint1k]

Sorry, my friend. You're out of your depth on this one.

The Habs might do some damage because of Newsy Lalonde's elite playoff performance, I guess.

Sorry mate, if you can't at least google and read a definition you can't really participate in the discussion. The adults here talking.

 

[AnInjuredJasonZucker]

Sorry mate, if you can't at least google and read a definition you can't really participate in the discussion. The adults here talking.

Excuse me, grown up. Please tell me how a win rate for a team from 5 years ago with only 4 remaining players represents relevant data for predicting this year's performance when presented as a direct comparable.

Please use lots of pictures, though. My adolescent brain has trouble with the squiggly lines.

 

[Fatass]

McDavid almost carried the Oilers to the Cup last playoffs. He had the one bad game. It just happened in game 7 of the Final. This year’s playoffs he will need more from his teammates.

 

[Hint1k]

Excuse me, grown up. Please tell me how a win rate for a team from 5 years ago with only 4 remaining players represents relevant data for predicting this year's performance when presented as a direct comparable.

Please use lots of pictures, though. My adolescent brain has trouble with the squiggly lines.

An adult would recognized a commonly used by adults sample size of 5 years that helps to avoid the recency bias on the one hand and the irrelevant data on the other hand.

When it comes specifically to Oilers, all the relevant players were on the team 5 years ago. So, unless you want to call guys like McDavid and Draisaitl irrelevant....