Oilers were overwhelmingly #1 cup favorites going into the season. Are they still #1 today?

[geebster]

Don't have them first, definitely in my top 5. Can't definitively say top 3 since... I have no idea how you can strictly rank cup favourites like that at this point of the season.

Also very very difficult to get back to a finals two years in a row without some real injury luck. They are good enough, no doubt, but they are far more likely to have injuries this year by the time they get deep since they really didn't get to rest guys like other teams did.

 

[jetsforever]

I'm most surprised that they were originally Cup favourites

 

[MikeyMike01]

I thought they overachieved last year. I didn’t think they were a favorite before and I don’t now.

 

[John Mandalorian]

I'm most surprised that they were originally Cup favourites

So you weren’t overwhelmed by it then?

 

[majormajor]

They weren't overwhelming cup favorites, no one was. And no one is.

But I wouldn't put them first of the pack either. Tampa suddenly looks very deep up front again and they've got better D and goaltending than Edmonton. The Vasi advantage over Skinner is huge. They've got 5 point per game+ forwards. Even assuming Hyman gets back to that level, that's only 3 for Edmonton. The Oilers needed some guys from the Arvidsson, Skinner, Podkolzin, Kapanen group to break through and find chemistry with Draisaitl and McDavid, and none of them are scoring much.

 

[FlameChampion]

They’ve been quite consistent since their trash first 5 games honestly.

You can’t win every game handily. Skinner has been great as of late.

Hes been great lately but hes still not consistent.

They have played fairly well minus the first 5 games like you said. Defensively they been solid all year. But their forward group has been underperforming all year minus Mcdavid and Draisaitl. Hyman has came strong lately but I think its fair to say he was playing well just unlucky. Every other forward making 1.5+ has been pretty unproductive. RNH, Skinner, Arviddson and Henrique mainly.

 

[BraveCanadian]

A healthy McDavid and Drai are a wildcard in any series. Big time playoff performers.

If they are dialled in like last year the Oilers could win for sure. They would have won last year if healthy.

 

[Sun God Nika]

I think they are clear favourites but 15 of the other 16 teams that make it will still likely win due to parity and bounces.

 

[DitchMarner]

I think they are clear favourites but 15 of the other 16 teams that make it will still likely win due to parity and bounces.

I think you mean one of the other 15 that make it. 15 teams can't win the Cup.

I see what you're getting at, though. It's a tough field and there may not be a team that should be expected to win the Cup. Oilers do have to be among the favorites, however.

 

[Sun God Nika]

I think you mean one of the other 15 that make it. 15 teams can't win the Cup.

I see what you're getting at, though. It's a tough field and there may not be a team that should be expected to win the Cup. Oilers do have to be among the favorites, however.

no i mean 15 teams win the cup this year

 

[Fantast100]

They have 2 of the top 3 players I guess Kucherov is the 3rd top 3 player despite this here they are not top 3 contenders they are top 10 contenders if they steam on.

 

[sensfan4lifee]

They have 2 of the top 3 players I guess Kucherov is the 3rd top 3 player despite this here they are not top 3 contenders they are top 10 contenders if they steam on.

They have one top 3 player once again a Oiler fan making fraudulent claims

Draisaitl is not a top 3 players I would rank him behind Mackinnon, Kucherov, Makar and Hughes.

 

[NeverForget06]

They have one top 3 player once again a Oiler fan making fraudulent claims

Draisaitl is not a top 3 players I would rank him behind Mackinnon, Kucherov, Makar and Hughes.

lol your gotchas in this thread are sad - maybe one day your team will have a top 30 player in the NhL

 

[Matty Sundin]

Nobody is a clear favorite and they all suck

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

They aren't even in my top 3 and I don't think they ever were.

Carolina, Florida, Dallas.

 

[Bleedred]

I still think they're top-3 for sure. I don't really have a cup favorite right now.

Unless they lose McDavid or Draisaitl during the playoff run.

I still don't trust their defense much, nor do I trust Skinner at all. The difference between Skinner and a competent goalie may have been the difference in them not winning last year.

Skinner kept the other teams alive for too long in some of those rounds. I actually defended Skinner up until the playoffs last year and proclaimed him as underrated about a year ago, because people were acting like he was one of the worst goalies in the league. I'm probably now closer to that opinion than not. Maybe he's not one of the worst, but he's not any good at all.

Does that mean they can't win? No, he just has to give them a ton more than he did last playoffs and a ton more than he has this season so far.

 

[sensfan4lifee]

lol your gotchas in this thread are sad - maybe one day your team will have a top 30 player in the NhL

Timmy is a top 5 center this year easily, and Tkachuk is easily a top 5 winger also Sanderson is on the verge of becoming a top ten D.

 

[Regal]

Timmy is a top 5 center this year easily, and Tkachuk is easily a top 5 winger also Sanderson is on the verge of becoming a top ten D.

I think the poster meant in reality

 

[Caps8112]

i dont know about clear cut favorite. To me it really gets down to whether Mcdavid can do what he did last playoffs in spite of the flaws in his team. They will go as far as he can carry them like no one has in 30-40 years. If were being honest, the goalie sucks, the D is middle of the road at best and outside of what Mcd and Drai make other players on offense produce, its a mediocre team with the absoulte best player and maybe the 3rd to 5th best player carrying them.

 

[Hint1k]

Oilers is not top1 or even top3 in the west alone.

Here are the teams sorted by the win rate in playoffs in the last 5 years (Only teams that played as many games as Edmonton or more are on the list):

West:
1) Colorado = 63%
2) Vegas = 60%
3) Dallas = 53%
4) Edmonton = 49%

East:
1) Tampa = 62%
2) Florida = 55%

This does not mean Oilers can't win it all this year, it means some people think they are top1 or top3 due to recency bias.

 

[Regal]

Oilers is not top1 or even top3 in the west alone.

Here are the teams sorted by the win rate in playoffs in the last 5 years (Only teams that played as many games as Edmonton or more are on the list):

West:
1) Colorado = 63%
2) Vegas = 60%
3) Dallas = 53%
4) Edmonton = 49%

East:
1) Tampa = 62%
2) Florida = 55%

This does not mean Oilers can't win it all this year, it means some people think they are top1 or top3 due to recency bias.

That’s a really terrible metric to judge current teams. It’s not recency bias to think 5 playoffs ago is meaningless to today.

 

[barry halls]

It seems to me that it's very rare for a team to lose in the final, then win the cup the following season. Obviously Florida just did it but I feel like it's a very rare occurrence.

Based on my own superstition and the slim odds of a repeat SCF appearance (especially given the history of Canadian teams after Finals appearances in the modern era), I am doubtful that they'll make it back to the finals this year, but I am hoping to be surprised.

 

[JSlick]

Emeberson has panned out nicely for them so far, and Nurse is actually playing well. What they need most is an upgrade at goalie because Skinner is nowhere good enough. Seems like every single game so far they've been outgoalie'd. For now I only put them at top 5

 

[Incognito]

There’s been a decent amount of talk in this thread about Florida going back to the finals and foiling Edmonton again, but the last instance of a team making it to the finals three seasons in a row (not counting when Tampa did it from 19-20 through 21-22 because while it’s still impressive, it was also a different situation) was 40 years ago when the Oilers made it from 82-83 through 84-85. There are obviously a number of different teams that could stop Edmonton from winning it all this year, but I doubt it’ll be the Panthers.

 

[Heldig]

Where were they rated "overwhelming favourites"?

One of the favourites in the West for sure (along with Vegas, Colorado and Dallas). And of course there are the top teams in the East, too - Panthers, New Jersey and maybe Carolina.

So before the season they were one of 6 or 7 favourites.

Currently they sit 7th overall.