Oilers Stat Predictions 2024-25

[Tables of Stats]

Due to being a petty bastard in debating another member of the Canucks section of this site, I've done a stat projection for your team's upcoming season. It's a simple model that averages the stats from a player's past 3 NHL seasons. It's more fully described as:

1) For each player take the average of their last 3 seasons for games played, goals, assists, and points. I used to use AHL data for games played to measure player durability, but I have used only NHL data this season.

2) Fill out the team's predicted roster using 14 forwards and 7 defensemen.

3) Compare the predicted number of man games played to the number of man games played over a full season for both forwards and defence.

4) Fill out the remaining games played with the average stats of the bottom of the roster players.

This model tends to underpredict points for younger players who are still improving and over-predict for older players who may be declining.

The depth sections are used by scaling the man games available to the model with the stats produced by your 15th and lower-rated forwards by PPG. This means that players promoted up the depth chart may be counted twice, but this error should be small enough that it shouldn't impact the overall prediction.

Kane is predicted but his stats aren't included in any totals as his ability to play this season is still unknown as is his expected impact if he does return.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GUv5Wo01jvZ14_03udIfErlGSzhXJS7oGvzJlyLlSq4/edit?gid=0#gid=0

I hope you all find these predictions as interesting as I do.

Click to read more...

 

[Mr Kot]

YOU DO NOT BELONG HERE! LEAVE NOW!

 

[McHelpus]

Something something silovs was a 3rd stringer blah blah

 

[Tables of Stats]

I've got to say that I'm confused by the reaction here. I used the same method to make predictions for the Oilers as I've done for the Canucks and haven't editorialized things at all. These numbers expect the Oilers to score 60 more goals than the Canucks this season, I'd figure you'd be happy with that.

Anyway, best of luck to you and the Oilers this season.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

I've got to say that I'm confused by the reaction here. I used the same method to make predictions for the Oilers as I've done for the Canucks and haven't editorialized things at all. These numbers expect the Oilers to score 60 more goals than the Canucks this season, I'd figure you'd be happy with that.

Anyway, best of luck to you and the Oilers this season.

You’re way low on Bouchards numbers. I think you’re low on McDavid and Draisaitl as well. Those 3 will rack em up this season.

But as always the predictions are interesting!

Cheers

 

[brentashton]

I've got to say that I'm confused by the reaction here. I used the same method to make predictions for the Oilers as I've done for the Canucks and haven't editorialized things at all. These numbers expect the Oilers to score 60 more goals than the Canucks this season, I'd figure you'd be happy with that.

Anyway, best of luck to you and the Oilers this season.

This place routinely eats its young here. They took it easy on you.

Be happy that you didn’t start off by saying, “Canuck fan here, I come in peace”….ooooh boy, just sayin.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

 

[Tables of Stats]

You’re way low on Bouchards numbers. I think you’re low on McDavid and Draisaitl as well. Those 3 will rack em up this season.

But as always the predictions are interesting!

Cheers

The prediction is purely math based using an average of the production a player had in their past 3 seasons. I even noted that it under predicts younger players on the upswing and over predicts older players who might decline in the methodology statement. Bouchard will likely beat his prediction while RNH and a few of the old players will under perform to balance things out.

 

[Dakinjor]

I've got to say that I'm confused by the reaction here. I used the same method to make predictions for the Oilers as I've done for the Canucks and haven't editorialized things at all. These numbers expect the Oilers to score 60 more goals than the Canucks this season, I'd figure you'd be happy with that.

Anyway, best of luck to you and the Oilers this season.

People are weird here,

Thanks for posting the stats neat to look at.