Post-Game Talk: Oilers score 5 goals and an ENG without McDrai

[Fourier]

The same Jeff Skinner has 8 goals in his last 31GP. Thats the trouble with close cropping a sample and then saying "hey 28 goal scoring rate"

The same Skinner that scored 3 in last 2 games had only scored 5 in the previous 29 games.

As far as production comparisons Skinner rarely gets assists, and so doesn't come close to matching expected production of a topsix player. I mean all the players we gave up on have way more pts than Jeff Skinner. Which I said they would at seasons start.

lol at the combo of Skinner, Arvid, Pods having around 30combined goals and we're nearly finished the season.

Skinner has 14 ES goals. Over the last 3 complete years a team would on average have 4 forwards with more than 14 ES goals. And Skinner has done this over 60 games averaging between 12-13 minutes a game.

Points per 60 has its flaws but it is worth noting that 5 vs 5 Skinner has the third highest pts/60 total on the team at 1.84. Leon is at 2.69 and McDavid is at 2.47 with Hyman in 4th at 1.81. And he is not doing this on the backs on McDavid and Draisaitl. Moreover his ES IPP is second highest on the team at 81.487% meaning that he gets a point on over 80% of the goals scored when he is on the ice at ES. Of his 22 ES points only 2 have been secondary assists. And in the vast majority of cases with his various teammates the team's xGF numbers are lower than their actual GF numbers with Skinner on the ice at ES. So while he has never been a big assist guy, his lack of assists this year would seem to be more about the inability of his linemates to finish.

The issue with Skinner has not been his production which for his salary has been full value. It was that early on he seemed to struggle defensively, especially while on a line with McDavid. Since January 1st though Skinner has been on the ice for 14 ES GF and 4GA. So despite the fact that he seems to have turned this around he still tends to be the guy that gets the short end of the stick. I will assume that Knoblauch has his reasons for this, but regardless, Skinner has still produced in what has been a very limited role.

 

[Fourier]

Even 20 goals for J Skinner, if you said that at start of season people would've said failure. There was a plurality of posters here expecting 30. Somehow.

Agreed that the org is awfully dumb. Not gonna argue that point. I did amend my post to say that presently Skinner should be playing and granted minutes, and more minutes. Albeit he had 17 last game and thats pretty good for no pk play. He was on PP too.

Unfortunately, anyone thinking 20 goals for $3M is a failure is delusional. Over the last 3 years there have been on average about 135 forwards per year score 20 or more goals. That is about 4 per team. This year the 135th highest paid forward makes $5M.

 

[CROTT]

This is kind of what it's shaking down to, regarding recent coaches:
Woodcroft / Manson = Good offense, terrible defense
Knoblach / Coffey = Good defense, terrible offense

I wouldn’t call this good defense lots of bad coverage and missed assignments at critical times.

 

[ThePhoenixx]

Credit needs to be given to Jeff Skinner in my opinion.

He’s been treated pretty harshly here with the healthy scratches and lineup demotions that were questionable at best.

But he’s gone about it uncomplainingly. Hasn’t bitched to the media or asked for a trade.

Now he's been one of our best players of late, 3 goals in the last 2. He’s starting to rediscover his shot and has far more confidence in the offensive zone.

Rounding into form like a bunch of other guys just in time for playoffs!

He has gone from a defensive liability to defensively responsible.

A huge leap.

 

[MessierII]

Crazy what happens when other players get touches. Hopefully this pulls knobloch out of the McDrai void every staff seems to get suckered into.

 

[CupofOil]

It feels really silly to be benching a guy who has 15 goals this year on a team that is dying for depth scoring for a guy who has all of 2 goals (neither of which he actually shot past a goalie). Its not like our PK is any good either. It's like 11th worst in the league and Janmark and Brown have been our two worst PKing forwards.

I don't disagree but Knoblauch really values his PKers, defensive forwards, so I'm betting that Skinner or Perry come out if Kane returns and I still think that's an if.

 

[bobbythebrain]

Skinner has 14 ES goals. Over the last 3 complete years a team would on average have 4 forwards with more than 14 ES goals. And Skinner has done this over 60 games averaging between 12-13 minutes a game.

Points per 60 has its flaws but it is worth noting that 5 vs 5 Skinner has the third highest pts/60 total on the team at 1.84. Leon is at 2.69 and McDavid is at 2.47 with Hyman in 4th at 1.81. And he is not doing this on the backs on McDavid and Draisaitl. Moreover his ES IPP is second highest on the team at 81.487% meaning that he gets a point on over 80% of the goals scored when he is on the ice at ES. Of his 22 ES points only 2 have been secondary assists. And in the vast majority of cases with his various teammates the team's xGF numbers are lower than their actual GF numbers with Skinner on the ice at ES. So while he has never been a big assist guy, his lack of assists this year would seem to be more about the inability of his linemates to finish.

The issue with Skinner has not been his production which for his salary has been full value. It was that early on he seemed to struggle defensively, especially while on a line with McDavid. Since January 1st though Skinner has been on the ice for 14 ES GF and 4GA. So despite the fact that he seems to have turned this around he still tends to be the guy that gets the short end of the stick. I will assume that Knoblauch has his reasons for this, but regardless, Skinner has still produced in what has been a very limited role.

I don't buy that defensive schtick one bit. I know that's what was said early but i didn't see it

Just before 4N he made a massive defensive play that likely saved us game, and was buzzing all nite. He was promoted to Leon's line the following game

The next game not much happening so Knobby goes back to the McDrai show. Skinner wins a ton of board battles, is the single bright spot on his line, and makes 2 noticeably key defensive plays...... he's rewarded with being scratched for Savoie.

I think Knobby has an issue of some sorts, and it took that reported pee pee whack he got from Stan to give him more opportunity

 

[Louis Cypher]

I fully expecting when McDrai returns Knob tells everyone else: thanks for stepping it up while we were down McDrai but now I need you to go back to not getting scored on and leave the offense to the big boys.

It's demoralizing for sure and I think that has been the issue here for a long time. Other players just don't feel involved or that important and just have to take a back seat.

 

[GreeningOil]

This forum is crazy pessimistic. The team and some of its players are having a down/ transition year.

We changed a lot of the depth players, and have had injuries and bad luck.

We have seen questionable deployment of players and stagnant special teams.

Despite all of this? We’re in a playoff spot, and our 4th best forward casually had a hat trick in a win while 2 of the best players in the last 30 years were out of the lineup.

 

[McHelpus]

I fully expecting when McDrai returns Knob tells everyone else: thanks for stepping it up while we were down McDrai but now I need you to go back to not getting scored on and leave the offense to the big boys.

It's demoralizing for sure and I think that has been the issue here for a long time. Other players just don't feel involved or that important and just have to take a back seat.

I don't think it's demoralizing at all. They are all collectively pitching in without the top guys. Losing 5-0 without McDrai is demoralizing

 

[K1984]

This forum is crazy pessimistic. The team and some of its players are having a down/ transition year.

We changed a lot of the depth players, and have had injuries and bad luck.

We have seen questionable deployment of players and stagnant special teams.

Despite all of this? We’re in a playoff spot, and our 4th best forward casually had a hat trick in a win while 2 of the best players in the last 30 years were out of the lineup.

100%

We're within shouting distance of 1st in the division despite horrendous goaltending, terrible individual years from nearly every key player on the team not named Draisaitl, a bunch of new players that haven't found traction and injuries. This is pretty much our worst case scenario and we're still right there.

That's a lot of things going wrong, and if/when a few of them turn in the right direction the team will take off. If absolutely nothing else changed other than McDavid consistently looking like normal McDavid and Frederic coming in and being impactful that alone could make us dangerous.

 

[Arpeggio]

If I'm Knoblauch right now I'm seriously considering benching Janmark and running McDavid on the PK in the playoffs. I don't have stats to back it up, but a few years ago when McDavid would kill penalties, I thought he was excellent at it. Doing that makes a lot more sense to me than taking Skinner out of the lineup.

Skinner has absolutely fulfilled his contract. Ridiculous lineup decisions all year and he's still been productive, and has improved his defensive game. Not having him in the playoff lineup in a prominent role would be ridiculous.

I think you go Skinner - McDavid - Hyman and xxxx - Draisaitl - Frederic where the x is either Kane, Perry, or Brown when the team is healthy. Ultimately, your best players are:

Skinner - McDavid - Hyman
Kane - Draisaitl - Frederic
Pod - Nuge - Arvidsson
Brown - Henrique - Perry

Those are the guys that should be playing in whatever combination. Janmark can get in when he scores a goal and beats out Brown for a spot, if Kane isn't ready to go, or if Perry can't handle the speed and is a liability.

 

[K1984]

If I'm Knoblauch right now I'm seriously considering benching Janmark and running McDavid on the PK in the playoffs. I don't have stats to back it up, but a few years ago when McDavid would kill penalties, I thought he was excellent at it. Doing that makes a lot more sense to me than taking Skinner out of the lineup.

Skinner has absolutely fulfilled his contract. Ridiculous lineup decisions all year and he's still been productive, and has improved his defensive game. Not having him in the playoff lineup in a prominent role would be ridiculous.

I think you go Skinner - McDavid - Hyman and xxxx - Draisaitl - Frederic where the x is either Kane, Perry, or Brown when the team is healthy. Ultimately, your best players are:

Skinner - McDavid - Hyman
Kane - Draisaitl - Frederic
Pod - Nuge - Arvidsson
Brown - Henrique - Perry

Those are the guys that should be playing in whatever combination. Janmark can get in when he scores a goal and beats out Brown for a spot, if Kane isn't ready to go, or if Perry can't handle the speed and is a liability.

I think the guy to take out (unfortunately) is starting to look like Perry, especially if we start getting scoring from around the lineup that we didn't have earlier in the year.

 

[McHelpus]

I think the guy to take out (unfortunately) is starting to look like Perry, especially if we start getting scoring from around the lineup that we didn't have earlier in the year.

Perry looks like he needs a week off honestly. This seems like around the same time he hit the wall last year.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Perry looks like he needs a week off honestly. This seems like around the same time he hit the wall last year.

He's had that a few times this year, I suspect his 5v5 minutes will come down a bit going forward here.

Hard to give him grief, he's been excellent for what you want from the guy this year.

Looking at the schedule, the Oilers ended up in a decent spot with McDrai down, they got through game one and have time off between. Very fortunate imo.

 

[joestevens29]

If I'm Knoblauch right now I'm seriously considering benching Janmark and running McDavid on the PK in the playoffs. I don't have stats to back it up, but a few years ago when McDavid would kill penalties, I thought he was excellent at it. Doing that makes a lot more sense to me than taking Skinner out of the lineup.

Skinner has absolutely fulfilled his contract. Ridiculous lineup decisions all year and he's still been productive, and has improved his defensive game. Not having him in the playoff lineup in a prominent role would be ridiculous.

I think you go Skinner - McDavid - Hyman and xxxx - Draisaitl - Frederic where the x is either Kane, Perry, or Brown when the team is healthy. Ultimately, your best players are:

Skinner - McDavid - Hyman
Kane - Draisaitl - Frederic
Pod - Nuge - Arvidsson
Brown - Henrique - Perry

Those are the guys that should be playing in whatever combination. Janmark can get in when he scores a goal and beats out Brown for a spot, if Kane isn't ready to go, or if Perry can't handle the speed and is a liability.

I don't know that throwing a banged up McDavid is the best idea unless it becomes and absolute dire situation.

Guy already plays a lot of minutes

 

[TB12]

I don't know that throwing a banged up McDavid is the best idea unless it becomes and absolute dire situation.

Guy already plays a lot of minutes

Agreed. If McDavid starts PKing on top of his usual minutes he'd be at what, 28+ each game. Completely unsustainable, even for the goat.

 

[joestevens29]

Agreed. If McDavid starts PKing on top of his usual minutes he'd be at what, 28+ each game. Completely unsustainable, even for the goat.

I don't mind if you want to throw him out the odd time late in a PK, but to become a regular penalty killer is just too risky unless we are down big time in a series.

 

[Heavy Dee]

 

[MessierII]

Agreed. If McDavid starts PKing on top of his usual minutes he'd be at what, 28+ each game. Completely unsustainable, even for the goat.

He already was pking full time under woodcroft so it’s not unheard of.

 

[Old Boys Club]

Anything on Frederic?

 

[Heavy Dee]

Anything on Frederic?

They keep saying two weeks. They may have to LTIR him to get Kane some games in before the playoffs.

 

[TB12]

He already was pking full time under woodcroft so it’s not unheard of.

Woodcroft liked to ride McDrai hard and put them away wet. In one off situations, sure, go to your horses, or at the end of a kill, definitely. But full time PK for McDavid? No f***ing way. Can't keep asking more from this guy.

 

[joestevens29]

He's had that a few times this year, I suspect his 5v5 minutes will come down a bit going forward here.

Hard to give him grief, he's been excellent for what you want from the guy this year.

Looking at the schedule, the Oilers ended up in a decent spot with McDrai down, they got through game one and have time off between. Very fortunate imo.

One of the best bag for buck contracts just based on his goals, but then add in some of those other intangibles and it's a damn good deal for the Oilers.

Once healthy maybe he gets some breaks going into the playoffs, but very impressed with consistent play from the oldest guys on the club

 

[joestevens29]

Woodcroft liked to ride McDrai hard and put them away wet. In one off situations, sure, go to your horses, or at the end of a kill, definitely. But full time PK for McDavid? No f***ing way. Can't keep asking more from this guy.

Especially considering it doesn't appear the guy has been at 100% for a good chunk of the year. No point in loading him up with more minutes