Post-Game Talk: Oilers ruin the Yzerplan

[SaltNPeca]

Well you can always remind yourself McDavid also plays against real goaltenders, not sub-ECHL tier goaltending the 80s guys were racking up points against (love ya Wayne, but lets be honest).

Were Billy Smith, Hasek, Brodeur, Roy, and Belfour "real goaltenders"?

rn Vitek Vanecek has a 4.0 GAA in 4 starts and overall League GF /game is 3.23, highest since 1993-94

 

[Soundwave]

Were Billy Smith, Hasek, Brodeur, Roy, and Belfour "real goaltenders"?

rn Vitek Vanecek has a 4.0 GAA in 4 starts and overall League GF /game is 3.23, highest since 1993-94

Hasek, Broduer, Belfour are more 90s guys, but yeah, McDavid would light Billy Smith up like a Christmas tree.

Roy was ahead of his time but he'd still get it too. The other randos of the 80s, lol, McDavid would absolutely destroy these guys, watch full game highlights from 80s games, it's shocking the kinds of goals the goalies were letting in. Goalies today in the AHL are better.

I was even watching like the 1991 BOA recap (great series), but holy shit at some of the goals Mike Vernon (a supposed top goalie) was letting in was wild. Straight up got beat with no screen from a slap shot from outside the blue line in a game 7 of a playoff round, lol. That would be a bad goal to give up in a preseason game, let alone a playoff game, let alone a game 7 of a series.

 

[K1984]

The problem with Skinner is consistency in my opinion.

When you look at his overall numbers maybe they are fine (I would say still lacking). But you just never really know what you will get from him. I feel like hes worse at the start of games and gets better as game goes on. Similarly, worse at beginning of series than end. Worse at beginning of season etc.

His play is basically indicative of how the team plays. He plays well, team plays well. He plays poor, the team plays poor.

Just feels rare that he steals a game that the team shouldn’t win. Not saying it doesn’t happen but its rare.

How many nights does he outplay the goalie? I’m sure its less than 50%.

I think he deserves some credit for outdueling Oettinger in last playoffs. I don’t want to pile on him too much because I don’t think the Oilers are an easy team to play on when they aren’t playing well. But I personally just don’t trust him much. I think hes closer to a backup than a starter. Which is fine as hes not paid starter money exactly. But I don’t feel confident with him as the starter and his next deal scares me.

Very accurate that his play matches that of the team. I never thought of it that way, but thinking abstractly I think that Pickard has more often stepped up and made saves in spite of the team in front of him than Skinner has despite the disparity in games played. Whenever you think "Skinner was awesome tonight" it usually follows the rest of the team playing great hockey when a strong performance wasn't as needed.

There's nothing better than when your team is getting leaned on, but you know that you have a guy between the pipes that is going to step up and close it down. Never get that feel with Skinner. Oilers will be getting leaned on and maybe even doing a good job at limiting scoring chances against, but you just have that sinking feeling that the first point shot that gets sifted on net is going to find a way in.

 

[McShogun99]

Geez, I was just reading Bruce McCurdy's player-grades from the Detroit game. Usually the 'Cult of Hockey' guys are quite respectful (if critical) of Nurse, but this is McCurdy's take from this game:

Darnell Nurse, 3 / 10
Played in a complex rotation that included 12:13 of left defence with Stecher and 7:25 on the right side with Kulak, as coaches Knoblauch and Coffey have been trying a new wrinkle to maximize their group. Nurse had his issues at times, including being among the defensive culprits on both Detroit goals. Also took Edmonton’s lone penalty of the evening.
GAS: ES +2/-7; ST 0.

Didn't realize he was that bad (I missed this game, just saw highlights).

Oh, Darnell...! (He did have a few good-ish games recently...)

___________________________

By the way, Mattias Ekholm is a total stud. This guy -- despite his advancing years -- remains one of the best both-ways' defencemen I've ever seen. I only wish I had been able to appreciate him more in his Nashville years but didn't because... Nashville.

Anyway, Ekholm is +76 in his 109 games with Edmonton. Here is the plus/minus of ALL NHL PLAYERS since he was traded to the Oilers:
+76 Ekholm
+69 Forsling
+52 DeMelo
+52 McDavid
+50 Bouchard
+47 Hughes
+45 Toews

Since he was traded, Ekholm is literally the #1 player in the NHL in terms of even-strength results when the player is on the ice.

Now, you can argue that he gets considerable ice-time with McDavid, Bouchard, Draisaitl, etc., and that's true (to a degree). But we pause to remember that McDavid, for example, did not have exceptional plus/minus results prior to Ekholm's arrival ('22 playoffs aside). Ekholm's arrival also pretty-much exactly coincided with Bouchard's emergence into modest stardom (naturally Bouchard's ice-time and deployment went way up when Barrie was traded away for Ekholm).

In 111 games prior to Ekholm becoming his partner, Bouchard was -3. In 111 games after Ekholm became his partner, Bouchard is +50.

Ekholm is getting slower of foot (natural at his age), but he consistently has a remarkable ability to be in the right places at the correct time. He judges very expertly when to go, when to sag, when to attack, when to stay back, when to go to the front of the net, when to go behind and dig out a puck. (In short, he's the anti-Nurse.)

So far, I've talked defence only. But Ekholm also has considerable value offensively. Since coming to the Oilers, Ekholm is 19th highest in D-scoring in the NHL. That in itself is impressive for a remarkable defensive player, but get this: Since coming to Edmonton, Ekholm is 5th HIGHEST IN THE NHL in even-strength points. (He has has more ES points than Karlsson or Josi or Hedman since he came to Edmonton.)

I adore this player.

I always thought that Ekholm was Nashville’s best Dman for years but was overshadowed because he didn’t get a lot of points. I was ecstatic when we traded for him.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Well you can always remind yourself McDavid also plays against real goaltenders, not sub-ECHL tier goaltending the 80s guys were racking up points against (love ya Wayne, but lets be honest).

Another element Wayne had in his corner was constant protection. If somebody ever rubbed him out like McD gets 5X a game somebody Semenko would be taking his head off. Wayne had some carte blanche to stand around making plays and few teams chose to take that liberty, because the player that did knew they would be eating out of a straw for a month.

As a result of how NHL lacks enforcement either from team, DOPS, or officiating McD lives in a different world than Wayne did.

 

[Soundwave]

Another element Wayne had in his corner was constant protection. If somebody ever rubbed him out like McD gets 5X a game somebody Semenko would be taking his head off. Wayne had some carte blanche to stand around making plays and few teams chose to take that liberty, because the player that did knew they would be eating out of a straw for a month.

As a result of how NHL lacks enforcement either from team, DOPS, or officiating McD lives in a different world than Wayne did.

I mean just look at this game and imagine you air dropped Connor McDavid into it, lol.

 

[bone]

Coming to this thread late, but why is it all about Skinner and his next contract when he didn't even play and we still have over 150 regular season NHL games before his next contract.

Reality is we have no idea what he'll be valued as by that point as he'll have about 100 more games under his belt and he currently only has 129 so we barely have half of what his career sample size will be before the next contract.

Based on what he is today, hell no, I'm not paying $6M or more for the guy, but by that time he may be valued at that especially seeing the goalie market corrections going on currently.

As for this season's play. I actually haven't had much concern with Skinner at 5 on 5 other than the first game vs. Winnipeg. Hopefully he zones in a bit better on the PK though.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I mean just look at this game and imagine you air dropped Connor McDavid into it, lol.

"great goaltending the Oilers have had"

Promptly let in 11 goals. kinda laughed.

That said the defending in the game back then in regular season consisted of standing around watching. Goalies left on their own almost by rule.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Very accurate that his play matches that of the team. I never thought of it that way, but thinking abstractly I think that Pickard has more often stepped up and made saves in spite of the team in front of him than Skinner has despite the disparity in games played. Whenever you think "Skinner was awesome tonight" it usually follows the rest of the team playing great hockey when a strong performance wasn't as needed.

There's nothing better than when your team is getting leaned on, but you know that you have a guy between the pipes that is going to step up and close it down. Never get that feel with Skinner. Oilers will be getting leaned on and maybe even doing a good job at limiting scoring chances against, but you just have that sinking feeling that the first point shot that gets sifted on net is going to find a way in.

Was my takeaway yesterday that Pickard was required to make more, and harder stops yesterday just in first period than Skinner had whole game against the Pens. The broadcast however are constantly sending up Skinners saves as being higher quality great saves than they are. Just as often its saves goalies should be making at this level. Debrusk is particularly effusive of Skinner. As if he's saving our bacon most games.

Actually Skinner best game was against; Carolina I thought. He had to contend with many more open looks, quality chances and made reaction stops. That was a good game by him.

 

[FlameChampion]

Coming to this thread late, but why is it all about Skinner and his next contract when he didn't even play and we still have over 150 regular season NHL games before his next contract.

Reality is we have no idea what he'll be valued as by that point as he'll have about 100 more games under his belt and he currently only has 129 so we barely have half of what his career sample size will be before the next contract.

Based on what he is today, hell no, I'm not paying $6M or more for the guy, but by that time he may be valued at that especially seeing the goalie market corrections going on currently.

As for this season's play. I actually haven't had much concern with Skinner at 5 on 5 other than the first game vs. Winnipeg. Hopefully he zones in a bit better on the PK though.

I saw a comment and responded and it kinda spiraled into another discussion. I apologize.

 

[bone]

I saw a comment and responded and it kinda spiraled into another discussion. I apologize.

No need to apologize. It's a worthy conversation, just was surprised to see it being batted around after last night's game.

 

[CupofOil]

I feel like its same to McLeod, JP, Yamamoto etc.

Their fine when the contracts are cheap but soon as they need a raise it becomes a problem. Skinner going to be the same. Anything beyond 2.6m is too risky. I don’t think you can trust him. Goaltending is so all over the place though. Which is probably more reason to not pay for it unless you have a top 10 goaltender. (Which we don’t). Another problem for another day though.

Where do you find a clear Skinner upgrade for cheap though? Where do you find a CLEAR Skinner upgrade that's available even at a big ticket number

I think people are way too harsh on him calling him a backup etc. It's a little absurd actually.
He had a .913 save pct. in the small sample size of his 1st season then had a .913 save pct, in his rookie season helping to save the Oilers season after the Shit Soup fiasco and nearly won the Calder then righted the ship after a slow start (by everybody) last season with a .905 save pct. in 57 starts last season in a higher scoring league where .905 is actually pretty decent then had some real strong performances in the playoffs especially in the second half of the playoffs granted with some stinkers mixed in especially in the Vancouver series and damn near backstopped them to a Cup if anybody could have scored in the Panthers series.

Yes, he has some inconsistencies but so do like 90% of the goalies in the league and he's still young so there's room for growth.
Again, he's not perfect and he has his dips but good luck finding a cheap replacement for him that is clearly better. I get some of the frustrations with him but I feel he's becoming one of the more underrated Oilers not coincidentally after Mike Smith who was another underrated Oiler got largely shit on by this fanbase for his time here lots of it unjustified. I guess that's just how this town is on their goalies.

His next contract could be a problem if he has another solid season but what else can ya do? Good to great #1 goalies aren't exactly easy to find. Are there even 10 that have been better than Skinner the last 2 years, CLEARLY better. Maybe but it's close I bet.
If he's in the 5.5-6m range I think you have to pay him or, good luck finding a better guy on the market for that price or less.
And no Pickard is not better. You're comparing a journeyman 15-20 game backup to a young 50-60 game starter.

 

[bone]

Was my takeaway yesterday that Pickard was required to make more, and harder stops yesterday just in first period than Skinner had whole game against the Pens. The broadcast however are constantly sending up Skinners saves as being higher quality great saves than they are. Just as often its saves goalies should be making at this level. Debrusk is particularly effusive of Skinner. As if he's saving our bacon most games.

Actually Skinner best game was against; Carolina I thought. He had to contend with many more open looks, quality chances and made reaction stops. That was a good game by him.

I'd generally agree with this sentiment, with the caveat being that Skinner's performance would be somewhat under rated vs. Pittsburgh because of the nature of how the flurries came about (use of the word underrated may not be the best descriptor as Louie and Jack were praising it quite a bit, but my comments would be for the general masses).

Wasn't there a like a prolonged stretch where the team outshot Pittsburgh something crazy like 25 to zero. Those games can be tough for a goalie to stay focussed to make that save once it comes.

 

[brentashton]

I'd say 5 max unless you're getting someone who can win games on their own.

Yes. I don’t think he’s worth 5 even but the market will return him a contract at that area minimum.

 

[Soundwave]

Where do you find a clear Skinner upgrade for cheap though? Where do you find a CLEAR Skinner upgrade that's available even at a big ticket number

I think people are way too harsh on him calling him a backup etc. It's a little absurd actually.
He had a .913 save pct. in the small sample size of his 1st season then had a .913 save pct, in his rookie season helping to save the Oilers season after the Shit Soup fiasco and nearly won the Calder then righted the ship after a slow start (by everybody) last season with a .905 save pct. in 57 starts last season in a higher scoring league where .905 is actually pretty decent then had some real strong performances in the playoffs especially in the second half of the playoffs granted with some stinkers mixed in especially in the Vancouver series and damn near backstopped them to a Cup if anybody could have scored in the Panthers series.

Yes, he has some inconsistencies but so do like 90% of the goalies in the league and he's still young so there's room for growth.
Again, he's not perfect and he has his dips but good luck finding a cheap replacement for him that is clearly better. I get some of the frustrations with him but I feel he's becoming one of the more underrated Oilers not coincidentally after Mike Smith who was another underrated Oiler got largely shit on by this fanbase for his time here lots of it unjustified. I guess that's just how this town is on their goalies.

His next contract could be a problem if he has another solid season but what else can ya do? Good to great #1 goalies aren't exactly easy to find. Are there even 10 that have been better than Skinner the last 2 years, CLEARLY better. Maybe but it's close I bet.
If he's in the 5.5-6m range I think you have to pay him or, good luck finding a better guy on the market for that price or less.
And no Pickard is not better. You're comparing a journeyman 15-20 game backup to a young 50-60 game starter.

He won't be here in 2 years if he wants a lot of money, that's basically the end of that.

The Oilers system is very clearly what limits high danger chances, as long as that system is still here, you'll be good to plug and play other goalies.

 

[bone]

Where do you find a clear Skinner upgrade for cheap though? Where do you find a CLEAR Skinner upgrade that's available even at a big ticket number

I think people are way too harsh on him calling him a backup etc. It's a little absurd actually.
He had a .913 save pct. in the small sample size of his 1st season then had a .913 save pct, in his rookie season helping to save the Oilers season after the Shit Soup fiasco and nearly won the Calder then righted the ship last season with a .905 save pct. in 57 starts last season in a higher scoring league where .905 is actually pretty decent then had some real strong performances in the playoffs especially in the second half of the playoffs granted with some stinkers mixed in especially in the Vancouver series and damn near backstopped them to a Cup if anybody could have scored in the Panthers series.

Yes, he has some inconsistencies but so do like 90% of the goalies in the league and he's still young so there's room for growth.
Again, he's not perfect and he has his dips but good luck finding a cheap replacement for him that is clearly better. I get some of the frustrations with him but I feel he's becoming one of the more underrated Oilers not coincidentally after Mike Smith who was another underrated Oiler got shit on by this fanbase for his time here lots of it unjustified. I guess that's just how this town is on their goalies.

His next contract could be a problem if he has another solid season but what else can ya do? Good to great #1 goalies aren't exactly easy to find. Are there even 10 that have been better than Skinner the last 2 years, CLEARLY better. Maybe but it's close I bet.

The main thing I'm looking for out of Skinner is more consistent play. His career to date has had way too many stretches where he'll have a stretch where 5 out of 10 games have a really poor save percentage.

I'd like to see him get to the point where he has quality starts close to 65% of the time and that he limits his really bad starts to only once every 6th or 7th game. Looking at his full regular season last year he ended up close for quality starts despite his horrible start to the season, but he had way too many really bad starts and they often came in batches. If he can shrink those slumps, he'll be a fine goalie for a team that plays well in front of him and may even prove worthy of a sizable contract.

I'd also like to see some more consistent playoff goaltending out of him now that he's shown that he can have a really good stretch like he did vs. Dallas.

 

[CupofOil]

He won't be here in 2 years if he wants a lot of money, that's basically the end of that.

The Oilers system is very clearly what limits high danger chances, as long as that system is still here, you'll be good to plug and play other goalies.

If you don't pay Skinner, you'll have to pay somebody else.
You can't just plug in a Pickard and another cheap goalie and expect to win a Cup so the question is, do you pay Skinner who is more established here or pay somebody else and hope they fit in.

The fact of the matter is that the Oilers biggest opportunity to win a Cup was when these contacts were relatively cheap. Drai, Bouchard, Skinner. This is really their last chance this season, I think the window closes quick after this season when the Drai contract kicks in then McDavid, Bouchard and goalie thereafter.

 

[FlameChampion]

Where do you find a clear Skinner upgrade for cheap though? Where do you find a CLEAR Skinner upgrade that's available even at a big ticket number

I think people are way too harsh on him calling him a backup etc. It's a little absurd actually.
He had a .913 save pct. in the small sample size of his 1st season then had a .913 save pct, in his rookie season helping to save the Oilers season after the Shit Soup fiasco and nearly won the Calder then righted the ship after a slow start (by everybody) last season with a .905 save pct. in 57 starts last season in a higher scoring league where .905 is actually pretty decent then had some real strong performances in the playoffs especially in the second half of the playoffs granted with some stinkers mixed in especially in the Vancouver series and damn near backstopped them to a Cup if anybody could have scored in the Panthers series.

Yes, he has some inconsistencies but so do like 90% of the goalies in the league and he's still young so there's room for growth.
Again, he's not perfect and he has his dips but good luck finding a cheap replacement for him that is clearly better. I get some of the frustrations with him but I feel he's becoming one of the more underrated Oilers not coincidentally after Mike Smith who was another underrated Oiler got largely shit on by this fanbase for his time here lots of it unjustified. I guess that's just how this town is on their goalies.

His next contract could be a problem if he has another solid season but what else can ya do? Good to great #1 goalies aren't exactly easy to find. Are there even 10 that have been better than Skinner the last 2 years, CLEARLY better. Maybe but it's close I bet.
If he's in the 5.5-6m range I think you have to pay him or, good luck finding a better guy on the market for that price or less.
And no Pickard is not better. You're comparing a journeyman 15-20 game backup to a young 50-60 game starter.

I don’t know what the solution is, I just wouldn’t pay him 5.5+ on his next deal personally .

I don’t think hes a bad goaltender and I am fine/good with his current contract . I personally prefer a goaltender who’s consistently average compared to someone whos a bit of a rollercoaster.

I’d roll with a 1-2m goalie personally over overpaying for one. Pretty much goes for anyone whos in the mushy middle so its not just a Skinner problem.

 

[Soundwave]

If you don't pay Skinner, you'll have to pay somebody else.
You can't just plug in a Pickard and another cheap goalie and expect to win a Cup so the question is, do you pay Skinner who is more established here or pay somebody else and hope they fit in.

If your system is what's responsible for the goalie's doing well in the first place, then yes sure you can plug in any number of different goalies.

I bet even a David Riitich would do well in our system.

We limit high danger chances amongst the best in the league, lots of guys could do well here as such there is no real pressure as I see it to have to pay one guy "or else".

Honestly that goes even for the D, I think a lot of the hand wringing over losing Ceci/Desharnais was way overblown and you're starting to see exactly that in the last 5 games as the team has settled down a bit (still not playing their best).

Bouchard and Ekholm are the key players on back end, the rest of the pieces are interchangeable cogs and I would extend that to the goalies.

 

[CupofOil]

I don’t know what the solution is, I just wouldn’t pay him 5.5+ on his next deal personally .

I don’t think hes a bad goaltender and I am fine/good with his current contract . I personally prefer a goaltender who’s consistently average compared to someone whos a bit of a rollercoaster.

I’d roll with a 1-2m goalie personally over overpaying for one. Pretty much goes for anyone whos in the mushy middle so its not just a Skinner problem.

Therein lies the problem.

You're either pay somebody in the "mushy middle" $5m+ or Skinner because that's how much middle of the road starters go for now and even moreso when the cap rises. You can't roll with two goalies making backup money and expect to win a Cup.

If your system is what's responsible for the goalie's doing well in the first place, then yes sure you can plug in any number of different goalies.

I bet even a David Riitich would do well in our system.

We limit high danger chances amongst the best in the league, lots of guys could do well here as such there is no real pressure as I see it to have to pay one guy "or else".

David Rittich never started more than 22 games as a 32 year old. Quite a risk you're taking there replacing your goalie that started over 100 games the last 2 seasons.

 

[iCanada]

Well damn!!!

I’ll never attempt that one chip challenge that would kill me I think lmao.

Lol I don't recommend it. Not worth it.

My girlfriend at the time told me I was being a little bitch about the whole thing, which, I kind of was but honestly I was a little concerned. Lol.

I got her back though by asked for a kiss, had her British ass in the same circle of hell I was in just by giving her a quick second of tongue.

Maybe it was worth it.

 

[Soundwave]

Therein lies the problem.

You're either pay somebody in the "mushy middle" $5m+ or Skinner because that's how much middle of the road starters go for now and even moreso when the cap rises. You can't roll with two goalies making backup money and expect to win a Cup.


David Rittich never started more than 22 games as a 32 year old. Quite a risk you're taking there replacing your goalie that started over 100 games the last 2 seasons.

I'm just saying, if we had Rittich right now playing the same games Skinner has been in, I wouldn't be all that surprised to see about the same save percentage/GAA.

It's our systems play that does the heavy lifting not any individual goalie.

We have basic proof of that as is, Pickard is a 32 year old AHL goalie who is basically giving the same production for almost 1/3 the cost.

In 2 years could you sign like a McKenzie Blackwood or Lukas Dostal or Joel Blomqvist instead or someone like that and have them come in and play quite well? Certainly not impossible.

 

[CupofOil]

I'm just saying, if we had Rittich right now playing the same games Skinner has been in, I wouldn't be all that surprised to see about the same save percentage/GAA.

It's our systems play that does the heavy lifting not any individual goalie.

We have basic proof of that as is, Pickard is a 32 year old AHL goalie who is basically giving the same production for almost 1/3 the cost.

In 2 years could you sign like a McKenzie Blackwood or Lukas Dostal or Joel Blomqvist instead or someone like that and have them come in and play quite well? Certainly not impossible.

You need a goalie to play 55+ games a year or closer to 60 with a guy like Pickard as backup, Rittich has never played more than 22. You guys thinking that Rittich will seamlessly replace Skinner are a perfect example of underrating Skinner.

Pickard is not giving the same production. He started 20 games last season while Skinner started 57. It's the difference between a starter and a backup.

 

[Soundwave]

To be honest we never should have let Cam Talbot go, thinking Mikko Koskinen was long term going to be better was stupid, and even then we should have brought Talbot back on the cheap instead of signing Campbell.

Cam's GSAA is generally be pretty good even this year he is 13th best in the league which is not bad.

You need a goalie to play 55+ games a year or closer to 60 with a guy like Pickard as backup, Rittich has never played more than 22. You guys thinking that Rittich will seamlessly replace Skinner are a perfect example of underrating Skinner.

There will be guys available in 2 years who can do what Skinner does. Always young goalies coming up, some vets who want in on a good team. I'm not losing a lot of sleep over that, this is like the same people who made the loss of Ceci out to be some massive thing and were going crazy the first few games.

Like I've said, for Oiler fans, I wouldn't be buying a Stuart Skinner jersey because there's a pretty good chance he isn't here in 2 years if he wants big dollars.

 

[CupofOil]

There will be guys available in 2 years who can do what Skinner does. Always young goalies coming up, some vets who want in on a good team. I'm not losing a lot of sleep over that, this is like the same people who made the loss of Ceci out to be some massive thing and were going crazy the first few games.

Like I've said, for Oiler fans, I wouldn't be buying a Stuart Skinner jersey because there's a pretty good chance he isn't here in 2 years if he wants big dollars.

You act like it's so easy to come into the league and start well over 100 games over 2 seasons with a save pct. of .913 and .905.
This is a 25 year old doing this btw fresh into the league.

You're even suggesting that Rittich fill this role.
I'll just be nice and say that I agree to disagree that you can just plug anybody in there and expect them to be as good as Skinner starting 55-60 games a year.