Post-Game Talk: Oilers lose Duck Hunt

[Oilhawks]

I'm pretty much been more checked out watching the games ever since the 4nations break ended. Getting real tired of seeing our players get injured that I'd think there's some sort of curse placed on the team. No McDrai or Ekholm on D to be the main stabilizer makes the team look even more boring to watch especially offensively. Getting real f***ing sick of Knoblauch's treatment when it comes to certain players like Jeff Skinner also.

I liked Max Jones for his first game, but he's been putrid ever since. So many of our guys were getting targetted in a dirty way from the likes of Gudas, and Jones did absolutely nothing about it. He just stood there while Kulak, Bouchard, and Kapanen were in a scrum and didn't even bother to at least give a stinkglove to any other ducks player. Absolutely disgraceful, send him down to the AHL where he belongs.

Anyways, GL to them against a red hot blues tomorrow, but I don't think I'm gonna watch. Watching them play lately is like watching trap game snoozefest Minnesota wild back in the day.

100%

Criminal for this team to be playing such a dull game

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Philp's back up, so they'll at least have 3 true centres in the line up again. Wow, we're dealing with low bars here.
Only good news is they're more or less locked into the 3 seed, so these games don't matter.

Still, I really dislike that injuries excuse. Just LTIR McDavid or Ekholm and free up the cap so you don't have to run 17 skaters and can actually generate some competition for roles going into the playoffs.

That leads into my next note on Knob and how he is running his bench. Guys are locked into preordained roles, and good or poor performances just don't matter. It leaves a nasty taste in my mouth that Bouchard is coasting on defence during a rookie's first start, directly leading to the first two GA, plus I'd give him a decent bit of blame on the 3rd one also. (Yes, it's Kapanen's turnover in the slot, but he was the high guy and had zero reason to abandon the point after Kulak had already pinched).

He's one of their leaders and go-to players, and he's setting the tone that it's okay to coast and continually lose focus.

 

[Oilers88]

Kapenen, Jones and Kulak were all -3 last night. That's particularly crazy when you consider that Kapanen and Jones were on for the least ice time of any Oilers forwards (11:53 and 8:53, respectively) and still managed to be on the ice for every single goal against.

Kapanen is now -16 in 52 games with the Oilers, Jones is -8 in only 14 games, and Kulak is -10 on the season and -6 in his last 5 games. All three are the worst on the team (I'm not counting Frederic since his numbers are pretty much him as a Bruin).

I have a bit more patience for Kulak because he's been great for parts of this season, and it feels like part of his challenges have to do with linemates. As for Jones and particularly Kapanen, I think those guys need to sit.

 

[Stoneman89]

I wish Spector would get a tapeworm.

What a jackass Spector is. Perry gets under players and goalies skin, but I don't recall him having a dirty rep to try to hurt other players, Spector should learn the difference.

 

[Drivesaitl]

The problem is , we're winning the possession battle but losing the game. The Oilers of the 80'2 used to have Grant Fuhr hold the fort while they put up up 6 goals on 20 something shots. Must have driven the opposition nuts.

Anyway, we'll have to see if guys like Brown can replicate his "success" in the playoffs, or if it was just a hot streak for a few weeks.

Connor Brown had 2 playoff goals across 4 series of play. He was scratched multiple games of the playoffs. Did he get better at one point in playoffs? Yeah, I'd say he did but its overstated.

Really Connor Brown would be about the last player I expect to be around positive results. But its interesting how much inordinate praise he gets. All the players we lost could notch 5 goals in playoffs and did and they were "complete nothing" players we wouldn't miss. They all of course have had way better seasons, yet again, than a Connor Brown. Its like a cult with this player, not saying you.

 

[Stoneman89]

Kapenen, Jones and Kulak were all -3 last night. That's particularly crazy when you consider that Kapanen and Jones were on for the least ice time of any Oilers forwards (11:53 and 8:53, respectively) and still managed to be on the ice for every single goal against.

Kapanen is now -16 in 52 games with the Oilers, Jones is -8 in only 14 games, and Kulak is -10 on the season and -6 in his last 5 games. All three are the worst on the team (I'm not counting Frederic since his numbers are pretty much him as a Bruin).

I have a bit more patience for Kulak because he's been great for parts of this season, and it feels like part of his challenges have to do with linemates. As for Jones and particularly Kapanen, I think those guys need to sit.

As soon as some other guys can come back, they both have to be the top choices to eat popcorn.

 

[foshizzle]

Just to counter though is Skinner isn't getting much on those slot plays. His last 2-3 goals have been on deflections and across around last 10GP where he's getting major opportunity in lineup.

Last night the most dangerous thing we had going all night were shots from the point. Getting in there for deflections or rebounds or the shots going in directly. Really since Drai and McD are out it seems to be how we're getting our offense and chances. Of course Booch, Walman, Nurse, get no credit for that even though they should. They are being our best players currently. Theres no forward thats coming close. Of course Booch has the miscues and last night was poor but he's still involved in our goals, hit a post, sifted other shots that could go and his shot on the goal was sublime. Skinner gets on that because he's good at deflections but its also perfectly paced and slotted.

Skinner did score, so credit for that, but its not slot shot its him timing a run into that path. Trouble with deflections is sometimes they go, sometimes you get the gravy, then you can have 20 mroe than don't go. Right now Skinner is on a deflection heater. They all count, just deflections goals are less dependable.

But doesn’t Skinner scoring on a deflection Counter your point that he doesn’t go to the hard areas? Ryan Smyth, Pavelski, Perry, have made careers from deflecting pucks.

To your point about offence (or shots) are coming from the point. This is actually a problem. The Oilers have their offensive system built around point shots. They lead the league in them. These are low danger shots against- and that’s why you are seeing the team being “goalied”. They used to be a rush team- but under Knob that has been almost completely eliminated from their game. Now it’s the button hooks or around the net and back to the point for a low danger chance. I also think Arvy and Skinner have been less than expected because those two players strive in the high slot- down low goals. Oilers aren’t that team. They do not like to use the slot. They do not drive the net. Even McDavid has significantly reduced his net drive.

The best example I have is Bruce Cassidy when he took over in Boston. In an interview- he spoke about quality of shot over quantity. He focused on slot shots in the offensive triangle (the two face off dots and the crease). The total shot volume decreased, but shots from slots increased and they scored more. He’s done the same in Vegas.

I worry against a team like Vegas. They are going to stack the box in the d-zone and let the Oilers pass it to the point all day long. They also now have a goalie that will save those low danger shots.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Kapenen, Jones and Kulak were all -3 last night. That's particularly crazy when you consider that Kapanen and Jones were on for the least ice time of any Oilers forwards (11:53 and 8:53, respectively) and still managed to be on the ice for every single goal against.

Kapanen is now -16 in 52 games with the Oilers, Jones is -8 in only 14 games, and Kulak is -10 on the season and -6 in his last 5 games. All three are the worst on the team (I'm not counting Frederic since his numbers are pretty much him as a Bruin).

I have a bit more patience for Kulak because he's been great for parts of this season, and it feels like part of his challenges have to do with linemates. As for Jones and particularly Kapanen, I think those guys need to sit.

Pretty eye opening. In fairness that was running as our bottom line in a game we were strapped for bodies and forwards. So that its our third string goalie, its our bottom D pair, and bottom line and frankly Jones and Kap aren't looking like even NHL players right now. Essentially at this point they are fill spots until we get players back. But on the road we get last change and of course the matchup would favor even Anaheim who could throw better players out there to mismatch.

 

[MessierThanThou]

It is not hypocritical to call people out for specific behavior. What would be hypocritical would be to call out posters for being overly negative about the team, then be overly negative myself about the team.

Also, you're saying it's ok to call out players and be critical of them because they will never read this, but it is not ok to be critical of other posters because they WILL read this? Kind of cowardly, don't you think?

I never said either of those things were not ok, just that you’re doing more to spread the negativity contagion with your tangent on negative posters than the negative posters themselves, and probably shouldn’t get too comfy on that high horse.

 

[29Beast97Mode]

I wish Spector would get a tapeworm.

A penalty is a penalty Mark. Weird take.

 

[foshizzle]

Connor Brown had 2 playoff goals across 4 series of play. He was scratched multiple games of the playoffs. Did he get better at one point in playoffs? Yeah, I'd say he did but its overstated.

Really Connor Brown would be about the last player I expect to be around positive results. But its interesting how much inordinate praise he gets. All the players we lost could notch 5 goals in playoffs and did and they were "complete nothing" players we wouldn't miss. They all of course have had way better seasons, yet again, than a Connor Brown. Its like a cult with this player, not saying you.

Connor Brown and Janmark are the definition of net negative players. Neither are NHL players. I know you’re not into analytics- but these two cannot keep their heads above water. The PK “ability” does not offset what they give up 5v5. I have no idea why they get the ice time they get, the praise they get, and in Brown’s case, bumped up the lineup.

 

[Drivesaitl]

But doesn’t Skinner scoring on a deflection Counter your point that he doesn’t go to the hard areas? Ryan Smyth, Pavelski, Perry, have made careers from deflecting pucks.

To your point about offence (or shots) are coming from the point. This is actually a problem. The Oilers have their offensive system built around point shots. They lead the league in them. These are low danger shots against- and that’s why you are seeing the team being “goalied”. They used to be a rush team- but under Knob that has been almost completely eliminated from their game. Now it’s the button hooks or around the net and back to the point for a low danger chance. I also think Arvy and Skinner have been less than expected because those two players strive in the high slot- down low goals. Oilers aren’t that team. They do not like to use the slot. They do not drive the net. Even McDavid has significantly reduced his net drive.

The best example I have is Bruce Cassidy when he took over in Boston. In an interview- he spoke about quality of shot over quantity. He focused on slot shots in the offensive triangle (the two face off dots and the crease). The total shot volume decreased, but shots from slots increased and they scored more. He’s done the same in Vegas.

I worry against a team like Vegas. They are going to stack the box in the d-zone and let the Oilers pass it to the point all day long. They also now have a goalie that will save those low danger shots.

I didn't say Skinner doesn't go to the hard areas, or I don't recall putting it that way. I said he doesn't survive contact well and can get pushed off puck or squeezed off on boards. He's not particularly effective on the rush, I believe he's lost a step or two and he's sometimes an offside machine. Of course he can get around net and I agree he's shifty. The guy understands where goals are, think he must be pretty good at that aspect. But he can't stay around those areas like a Hyman can. Or he'll be eating ice. While he clocks in at 200lbs I'd wonder what the body fat index is like. It doesn't occur to me that he's 200lbs strong. Watching him out there losing puck battles lots its as if he's lighter than he is. To me he plays as if he's 185lbs. I wonder if this is a guy that trains hard as he can and that works to be as strong as he can.

I'm tempted to think that J Skinner is an uber talented guy with some magic hands and that at times hockey has come too easy to him. Just a theory.

Hopefully I'm all wrong on the player and he scores a dozen in the playoffs.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Connor Brown and Janmark are the definition of net negative players. Neither are NHL players. I know you’re not into analytics- but these two cannot keep their heads above water. The PK “ability” does not offset what they give up 5v5. I have no idea why they get the ice time they get, the praise they get, and in Brown’s case, bumped up the lineup.

I'm becoming more of a fan of NHL related stats. I always said my opposition was about extrapolations. In the past I'd said that when NHL shifts to actual sensors, actual data rather than inferred data (like Corsi etc) that I'd be more of a fan of the data.

Hockey so much harder to quantify than baseball and sensors on pucks, sticks, skates, its an improvement, its better than what we had to obtain data.

For instance now we don't have to extrapolate by proxy to get zone data. We have quantifiable zone data, we know where the puck is, theres no having to extrapolate or guess anymore where the puck is now.

I'm no dinosaur in that regard. I have statistical background. But I've always questioned by proxy measures. As I should.

 

[foshizzle]

I do agree with a lot of what you said there, but there are a few problems with it as well.

First, you say didn't hire competent hockey minds, wel that can't be the case because this is hockey and not basketball, where one player cannot win you a championship. Yes, having McDavid was huge, but there does have to be a support system around him to win, and over the last 3 years, the Oilers have won more playoff rounds than any team in the western conference. Yes, I get they didn't win the cup, but they were so close that it came down to a literal coin flip more so than actual skill.

The Oilers, when fully healthy, whether you or others want to admit it, are still Stanley Cup contenders. The fact that minus Draisaitl, every single player has had a down year, including McDavid, is not something that can be predicted or forecasted. But even with down years across the board, the Oilers are a formidable team when healthy. If even a couple of players pull it together in the playoffs, the Oilers are a scary team.

The goaltending I completely agree with you on and I think that needed to be addressed earlier and absolutely MUST be addressed in the offseason, regardless of how the playoffs go.

Not to be rude, but have you seen the oilers in the playoffs? The team around 97/29 is shit. It took McDavid breaking Gretzky’s record and Bouchard beating Coffey’s record to get to the finals the previous 3 seasons -despite the oilers going to the 2nd round and out- McDrai were still amongst the top scorers in the playoffs.

These two are putting up Herculean efforts and driving offence to cover for the shit team around them. The only way the Oilers are contenders is if McDavid breaks his own scoring record, Bouchard comes close to his, and Draisaitl scores 20. 97/29 team have to overcome Stu’s league worst goaltending (goals saved above expected for goalies playing 20 games or more), Brown and Janmark having xGF% in the 30s, RNH being an absolute black hole 5v5. That’s a lot of baggage that Drai and McDavid need to carry

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I don't think the Oilers are winning the Cup, I've been saying that all year, and I think they're underdogs against L.A. quite frankly but the standings don't mean a whole hell of a lot in hockey. The Oilers were 5th in the west last year and made it to the SCF's, the Panthers the year before were 8th in the east, the Habs made it to the SCF's during the bubble year as last team in. There's so much variance in hockey and such a razor thin difference between wins and losses in the playoffs that home ice and regular season standings don't really mean a ton. Look at the Panthers now, is anybody counting that team out? They've taken a tumble down the standings. Does anybody consider Washington and Winnipeg favorites? They've been the darlings of the regular season all year.

I'll reiterate that I'm not a big believer in this Oilers team, I liked the team the last 2 years quite a bit more, but regular season standings in the NHL don't really mean much once the playoffs start. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if both Washington and Winnipeg lose in the 1st round this year.

There's also the fact that the Oilers 3 best players have been out a while or playing injured or sick even before that in the case of McDavid and Ekholm so that should be taken into consideration when assessing the current team.

The standings aren't everything, but generally teams that are where we are currently don't win it all. I just thought it was interesting that it was brought up how high we were in the standings before the 4NC. And now we're more or less where we finished last year, if slightly lower in the overall West standings.

 

[K1984]

Not to be rude, but have you seen the oilers in the playoffs? The team around 97/29 is shit. It took McDavid breaking Gretzky’s record and Bouchard beating Coffey’s record to get to the finals the previous 3 seasons -despite the oilers going to the 2nd round and out- McDrai were still amongst the top scorers in the playoffs.

These two are putting up Herculean efforts and driving offence to cover for the shit team around them. The only way the Oilers are contenders is if McDavid breaks his own scoring record, Bouchard comes close to his, and Draisaitl scores 20. 97/29 team have to overcome Stu’s league worst goaltending (goals saved above expected for goalies playing 20 games or more), Brown and Janmark having xGF% in the 30s, RNH being an absolute black hole 5v5. That’s a lot of baggage that Drai and McDavid need to carry

One thing that would probably help getting back there is a 94% PK that had nothing to do with 97 and 29 whatsoever.

 

[foshizzle]

I'm becoming more of a fan of NHL related stats. I always said my opposition was about extrapolations. In the past I'd said that when NHL shifts to actual sensors, actual data rather than inferred data (like Corsi etc) that I'd be more of a fan of the data.

Hockey so much harder to quantify than baseball and sensors on pucks, sticks, skates, its an improvement, its better than what we had to obtain data.

For instance now we don't have to extrapolate by proxy to get zone data. We have quantifiable zone data, we know where the puck is, theres no having to extrapolate or guess anymore where the puck is now.

I'm no dinosaur in that regard. I have statistical background. But I've always questioned by proxy measures. As I should.

Totally fair and I didn’t mean any disrespect- I just didn’t want to post any as I know some don’t like them.

Back to the hockey take- I don’t know why the love affair with Brown. He adds nothing

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

One thing that would probably help getting back there is a 94% PK that had nothing to do with 97 and 29 whatsoever.

Which, needless to say, probably won't happen again.

That's one of those "Everything going right for the team" things that helps in the playoffs.

 

[foshizzle]

One thing that would probably help getting back there is a 94% PK that had nothing to do with 97 and 29 whatsoever.

That is fair- but also record breaking. No way that will be replicated. They needed that PK because the team couldn’t do anything 5v5 without the McDavid, Drai, Bouchard. If you need to rely on breaking NHL records to win, you aren’t a contender. That’s just my take

 

[popo]

But doesn’t Skinner scoring on a deflection Counter your point that he doesn’t go to the hard areas? Ryan Smyth, Pavelski, Perry, have made careers from deflecting pucks.

To your point about offence (or shots) are coming from the point. This is actually a problem. The Oilers have their offensive system built around point shots. They lead the league in them. These are low danger shots against- and that’s why you are seeing the team being “goalied”. They used to be a rush team- but under Knob that has been almost completely eliminated from their game. Now it’s the button hooks or around the net and back to the point for a low danger chance. I also think Arvy and Skinner have been less than expected because those two players strive in the high slot- down low goals. Oilers aren’t that team. They do not like to use the slot. They do not drive the net. Even McDavid has significantly reduced his net drive.

The best example I have is Bruce Cassidy when he took over in Boston. In an interview- he spoke about quality of shot over quantity. He focused on slot shots in the offensive triangle (the two face off dots and the crease). The total shot volume decreased, but shots from slots increased and they scored more. He’s done the same in Vegas.

I worry against a team like Vegas. They are going to stack the box in the d-zone and let the Oilers pass it to the point all day long. They also now have a goalie that will save those low danger shots.

This is spot on.

Illustration below of the low % chance of scoring from the point.
Obviously the argument for a point shot is that it gets the puck to the high danger areas for the sake of a tip in/deflection, or rebound. However I don't see our team scoring a lot of rebounds. Our forwards are still glued to the perimeter to have enough numbers in front to find a loose puck.
Our defense also spends a lot of time waiting for a good shooting lane to open. That windown of opportunity only closes the longer you delay.

Having said that we do have high quality shooters on our blueline - Bouchard, Walman, Nurse, Ekholm, even Kulak has a decent shot.

 

[CupofOil]

The standings aren't everything, but generally teams that are where we are currently don't win it all. I just thought it was interesting that it was brought up how high we were in the standings before the 4NC. And now we're more or less where we finished last year, if slightly lower in the overall West standings.

Missing a lot of top players is a big reason for that, look at what's happening to Florida as well that are in a much bigger tailspin. The Oilers and Panthers teams we see now are not the ones we'll see in the playoffs.
It's not just McDavid, Draisaitl and Ekholm either. Frederic and Kane are potential black aces, anything of note from those two would be a big help although I don't expect much from either.

 

[K1984]

That is fair- but also record breaking. No way that will be replicated. They needed that PK because the team couldn’t do anything 5v5 without the McDavid, Drai, Bouchard. If you need to rely on breaking NHL records to win, you aren’t a contender. That’s just my take

There aren't a lot of teams that can win the Stanley Cup not relying on their three best offensive players to drive scoring 5v5.

I just don't get what the argument even is anymore or the point of it. When on different lines, 97 and 29 comprise about 35-40 mins out of a total of maybe 50 mins of 5v5 time in a game. I don't know why we're mad about depth players not scoring 5v5 when they don't play a ton of 5v5 hockey relative to the Top 6. Of course the balance is going to be towards the top of the lineup. Short of finding top of the lineup players to play diminished minutes so they can maybe score more in them, I don't know what the solution is supposed to be.

29 and 97 driving the offence isn't a bad thing. When they're on top of their game (97 hasn't been), they will produce 3-4 goals per game combined. The bottom 6 just has to not get scored on and we win. It's how our team is built, and based on their salaries probably has to be built. And a lot of the time it has worked.

 

[PositiveCashFlow]

I wish Spector would get a tapeworm.

He should stick to politics. Not that his political tweets are any better I just wouldn't have to see his drivel on here

 

[CornKicker]

Jones is a big guy with skill who can make big hits, but he doesn't really fight. He's like Ben Eager without the fighting ability. He also doesn't penalty kill, so it's really hard to see him in a meaningful role on this team.

agree but at this point in his career he should be exploring opportunities to get better at those things because his future is not on a top 6 role anywhere in the nhl

 

[Drivesaitl]

Getting back to the game and some travails that the Ducks are gonna have going on for a long time.

They are worse defensively, far worse, than even the HOPE era Oilers and particularly their forwards are. What a hot mess. Starts with Zegras who is a random generator. Has no apparent care in the world what happens on plays and could go sideways. In own zone he's about as bad at getting pucks out as its possible to be in this league. With any less offense you'd just say sorry kid you're a bust. We can't have you on the ice. His zone out attempts are an absolute joke. Comedy stuff. Nor does he have the strength to work puck battles. If a puck needs to get out he'll lose that battle 9/10X. He's a joke.

But Terry, oh my god. He's coach killing stuff. There he is with 20secs left in a one goal game with puck downlow in Oilers end. All he has to do is find a way to eat puck, to keep it downlow. The guy is so f***ing dumb he attempts a pass back to the point thats covered (why would he do that) and he setups an Oilers last Killshot rush and we almost score. This isn't failing the test, its getting a negative mark on the test.

This is the quandary with the Ducks young star forwards. They have some talent, yes, they have 2 bit brains and I don't know they even care about anything other than personal pts.

Terry made the dumbest play I've seen all season. Congrats.

I know I'm hard on players, or can be, but jebus I'd be swearing at Terry for a week if he was an Oiler. I wouldn't ever have Zegras in the lineup. I don't even care about his offense.