I think there is a sober way to look at this team without being needlessly pessimistic or relentlessly optimistic. At this point, I think it's hard to argue that the team is as good as they were in the regular season last year. But what matters is how they perform in the playoffs.
I feel pretty good about Arvidsson and Skinner continuing their upward trajectory into the playoffs, though Knoblauch's handling of Skinner has been absurd and I'm not sure he's going to give Skinner the opportunity to be this year's Sergei Samsonov (a potentially fatal mistake, even?).
But last year, everything lined up to put the Oilers in the Stanley Cup finals despite their .900 sv%. My biggest concern is that it seems unlikely that enough things will break the Oilers away to overcome a .900sv% again. Last playoffs, their PK was historically good; their PP was elite; they were scoring a ton; other teams had key injuries (e.g., Demko, Boeser); McDavid played so well that he won the Conn Smythe on the losing team; and they were stil inches away from being bounced by an inferior Canucks squad in the second round.
I think we have to assume Skinner is a 900 goalie at this point. Maybe he flips a switch and gets into that 910-915 territory, but there is nothing that suggests he's going to do that in the payoffs--it would be a surprise. So the Oilers need to overcome that. I haven't seen any indication that their PK is going to be historically good again; they aren't scoring as much; their PP isn't as good; and now there are questions about the health of McDavid, Draisaitl, and Ekholm going into the playoffs. We need them at their peaks.
To me, it all starts and ends with Skinner. I think it is virtually impossible that the Oilers win the cup with a 900 sv%. I was hoping he would take a step forward and the Oilers wouldn't need as many things to break their way these playoffs, but he has gotten worse, so I am very concerned about their chances. They also just haven't looked like the same team as last year, but I am hopefuly that Arvidsson and Skinner can move the needle with their offence in the playoffs. Hopefully Kane can be a contributor. Who knows what is going to happen with Frederic. But there are just too many questions right now about the things the team will need to do extremely well to overcome a 900 sv % to be very optimistic about their cup chances. And I think that's a reasonable, not pessimistic, view.