Oilers hype: Is HF buying in on a 2024 run?

[CycloneSweep]

11th in the NHL in ES points for defenseman
3rd best ES goal differential on the team
15th in the league for ES TOI/game

absolutely clueless as usual


shocking coming from you

I don’t think we will be bad but like, super hyped teams usually fall flat.

 

[VivaLasVegas]

Can they get past Vegas? Thats the real million dollar question for the Oilers.

IMHO, if Colorado can get healthy and stay healthy, they are going to be a monster this season that they were not last season because of injuries, and would not be a cakewalk for anybody in the WCF. Dallas will probably improve as well in DeBoer's second season with the team now familiar with his system. Back in the Pacific, also not sure why everybody is so quick to overlook the Kraken who were playing some very good hockey by the end of last season.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

I don’t think we will be bad but like, super hyped teams usually fall flat.

like the Avs in 2022?

 

[CycloneSweep]

like the Avs in 2022?

There are always exceptions. Colorado was close to a super team so it’s a no brainer. Oilers defence and goaltending isn’t close to what they had.

 

[bucks_oil]

So let me preface this by saying I am totally indifferent to Edmonton and in fact, if Florida can't win the Cup, would love to see McDavid lift it because he's insane. But I'm seeing them as a universal top 3 Cup pick (hell the Athletic has them as the highest odds to win) and I'm just not seeing it? This is a team that has not won a 3rd round game with McDrai and added Connor Brown, who is solid but I don't think anyone is calling him a superstar. Meanwhile you have Vegas running it back with essentially the same team, Dallas who was very close added Duchene for pennies on the dollar, and Colorado who are a legit team if healthy. I would have those 3 teams' Cup odds ahead of the Oilers in the west and would probably still put Carolina, Tampa, NJD over them in the East.

I make this thread only because I see all the buzz about this being the year and I'm just wondering if I've missed anything notable. Will be funny to bump this in June after they win the Cup in 18 games I'm sure.

I think it's pretty simple:
1) Like you say, Vegas will run it back with more or less the same team, but
2) Edmonton was their toughest out, and
3) Brown >>> Yamamoto in all aspects of the game
4) Edmonton has young guys coming off rookie or sophomore seasons, who could mature (Bouchard, McLeod, Holloway, Broberg, Desharnais) and few guys at risk of falling off the cliff (Kane who was injured most of last year, maybe Hyman?)
6) They will have some accrued cap space at the deadline so another top-4 D is possible, and/or a checking center

They are in better position this pre-season vs last (solely based on Ekholm already being here)...

Lot's needs to go right, but they weren't that far off last playoffs and have improved since, with potential to still add at the deadline.

I don't see them in a class by themselves whatsoever, but you gotta pick someone and they are as good a bet as any of the other 4-6 contenders.

 

[blundluntman]

With good enough goaltending, they have a good shot of making the WCF again. Anything more than that probably would require some luck

 

[Video Nasty]

I don't see why they couldn't win the cup, but I do think it might take McDavid and Draisaitl consciously deciding to sacrifice offense to play a better 2 way game.

It sounds delightful in theory and is a really popular opinion (and a fairy tale worthy of players like Yzerman and Sakic), but the goalie still needs to stop the pucks that come through at him.

Skinner faced only 23, 26, 22, and 17 shots in the final 4 games of the Vegas series (3 losses). He let in 4, 1, 4, and 4. Of course, he got pulled 3 times in 4 games. Campbell only faced 23 shots in his 67 minutes of backup play in those 4 games.

Even if one didn’t watch the games (most of this forum), that seems like a pretty conscious effort by all to try and alleviate what the netminder has to deal with.

Not sure how much more defense you want these two and presumably the rest of the team to play. The starting goalie actually needs to do something other than performing poorly enough to get yanked 3 times in 4 games.

Oilers will win the Cup when they can get consistent, dependable goaltending. Hopefully that manifests inside the organization. Skinner was pretty good in the regular season, so I give him some benefit of the doubt going in. This is the season that McDavid adds the exclamation point to his individual and team based resume that vaults him firmly into 5th all-time.

 

[WaitingForUser]

If they cannot consistently separate McDrai at ES to create offensive depth, then why would this year being any different than the past?

Did you miss last season where the two played over 65% of the year apart 5v5? Sorry to break it to you but that excuse and narrative is long gone. Do they make each other better? Absolutely without question they do. Do they need each other to thrive? No they really don’t the PP is a different animal but 5v5 both can hold their own just fine

 

[Siludin]

Honestly I am more sold on Toronto than Edmonton this year, so that might be a sign that it's actually Edmonton's year...

 

[Ace Card Bedard]

Wasn't last year also Edmonton's year?

I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[ElysiumAB]

I think the defence is over hyped.

Where are you seeing the defense hyped?

 

[MCR74]

f*** that shit, man.

 

[Strangle]

I want a good old Canadian final, so I’m cheering for the Leafs and the Oilers

 

[Filthy Dangles]

I want a good old Canadian final, so I’m cheering for the Leafs and the Oilers

Might as well be cheering for Flying Cars and Flying Pigs

 

[Rodgerwilco]

Definitely not buying in... Like the Dallas Cowboys of the NHL... They look really great on paper and perform well in the regular season, but when it comes down to it they just haven't delivered in ages.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Sure if they get lucky and manage to avoid the better teams they can easily win it all

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Add Roman Josi, Pat Maroon and Jusse Saros and Babcock and they likely win the cup this year.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Oilers are a top 6 team in the NHL. They got Connor Brown on a sweetheart deal.

Kane is underpaid. Nuge is underpaid.

This roster has 2 top 30 Dmen. This roster is good.

 

[deleted user]

Where are you seeing the defense hyped?

Mostly talking to my Edmontonian friends.

 

[Skolman]

Oilers are a top 6 team in the NHL. They got Connor Brown on a sweetheart deal.

Kane is underpaid. Nuge is underpaid.

This roster has 2 top 30 Dmen. This roster is good.

Hey now, since Nurse is overpaid that means he's a terrible defenseman who is maybe a #4.

Has HF not taught you anything?

 

[PROUD PAPA]

This seems like a recurring theme here at HF.
Oilers will be in the mix with 6-8 other teams and one of them will prevail. Nothing to get excited or upset about.

 

[Skolman]

Mostly talking to my Edmontonian friends.

You would definitely know all about overhyped defense cores

 

[Calderon]

Trade Campbell for Saros. Both have a cap hit of $5M. Presumably Nashville wants this and that to sweeten the deal as Saros is solidly a top5 goalie while Campbell is towards the other end of the spectrum. On the other hand, having a top goalie kinda hurts the Preds right now as they are a middling team that's going nowhere, they'd be better off rebuilding. I've never done these kind of hypothetical deals but I guess something like Campbell + Mcleod + 2nd rnd pick for Saros?

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

They're a very strong team but imo more around the #5-10 tier than top 3 like publications are saying. Right now I'd have Vegas, Carolina, Colorado, and NJ as the top 4 in the first tier. Then Edmonton, Dallas, Toronto just below them in some order.

 

[Voight]

Pinnacle has Edmonton Oilers as the favorite to win the Stanley Cup, and by a significant margin. It looks like:
Top tier: Oilers
Second tier: Avalanche, Hurricanes, Leafs
Third tier: Devils, Golden Knights, Stars, Bruins
Rest

Publications might care about this stuff, but sportsbooks such as Pinnacle care about making money, so they're only motivated by making as strong predictions as possible.