Post-Game Talk: Oilers beat the odds

[Stoneman89]

I don’t have a blind hatred against Skinner. I’m just sick of his shitty goaltending costing us games this year.

If he would play better, I would give him all the credit in the world. Sometimes you’ve gotta call a spade a spade.

Let's just settle this right now. We have probably the best two backup goalie tandems in the league!

 

[McBeastMode]

I hope we get him, we need a lot of new goalies so that hopefully some amount to something worthwhile.

 

[McBeastMode]

 

[1981 Oilers]

@1981 Oilers wondering why you're looking at Matt Davis? afaik he's an undrafted 23 year old & any pro team could sign this guy.

Interesting factoid: 3 Calgary born players won the NCAA Championship last season with Denver including BOTH of their goalies. All came out the Edge hockey school/program in Calgary!

Is FA season for NCAA and apparently this fella is highly sought after

 

[1981 Oilers]

I hope we get him, we need a lot of new goalies so that hopefully some amount to something worthwhile.

Be interesting to see actually what is % of goalies drafted by teams make it as a bonafide starter

 

[rboomercat90]

Straight up gaslighting going on right here.

From the same guy who was saying in his last novel that Jackson isn’t to blame for any of the Oilers problems.

 

[Zerotonine]

I have a theory that Stu isn't really injured, he's actually working with another goalie coach at a secret facility. He doesn't want his career to be the next victim of the Schwartz effect.

He needs more then just a goalie coach. He needs a fking shrink to. His mental game is worst then his physical game how's that's possible is beyond me

 

[9GWG9]

Dying to see this guy in the line up. Also hoping Picks runs the board and leave the coach with no choice but to go with him.

 

[Zerotonine]

I just have a feeling that Pickard is going to take over the net early in the playoffs after Stu stinks it up and the team will roll with Pickard as the #1 for the rest of the playoffs.

Pickard has shown he can't handle FT duties unfortunately.

Best case scenario is Rodriguez showing he is more then capable to take over and they can split the games between them IMO

And Skinner is "injured" the rest of the season

 

[Da McBomb]

Pickard has shown he can't handle FT duties unfortunately.

Best case scenario is Rodriguez showing he is more then capable to take over and they can split the games between them IMO

And Skinner is "injured" the rest of the season

I don't think he has been given a fair opportunity as the #1 goalie yet to prove if he is capable or not. I know its kind of wishful thinking that he can become a number 1... but hey... it's better than the alternative?

 

[AM]

Adin Hill the only goalie in the league thats challenging RNH on that pass to Draisaitl.

If he goes across early he shoots.

 

[McBeastMode]

what is % of goalies drafted by teams make it as a bonafide starter

Based on the data and trends, approximately 5-10% of goalies drafted by NHL teams eventually become bona fide starting goalies. This range accounts for:

• Higher success rates in early rounds (closer to 50% for first-rounders).
• Much lower rates in later rounds (perhaps 1-5%).
• The rarity of the position and the long development curve.

 

[dssource]

That was a huge win. Always feels nice beating Vegas. Always.

Shocker that when the knights don't get the refs on their side, they don't win.

 

[Ritchie Valens]

Missed this one, happy to see they won in Vegas.

 

[Arty Spooners Bsmnt]

Stewed Shitnner has made a career by being big. That's it. He has zero athletic ability, evidenced by him being grossly overweight as well as never being able to move laterally more than an inch. His style is being a "positional" goalie with "sound fundamentals" that can be in the right place at the right time. However, he is constantly out of position because he thinks he's some top tier goalie that can fly out of his crease 15ft and challenge shooters while having zero ability to get back to position if it goes east west. I believe Skinner has worse technical ability than Pickard, despite Pickard looking erratic at times

In terms of coaching, I believe our goalie coach is actively trying to teach Skinner how to work around his terrible attributes, instead of working on improving those terrible attributes. We've seen, over the last year and half, that Skinner almost never actually butterfly slides on cross creases anymore. Instead, he will dive hands first like a soccer goalie, or go down into that stupid scorpion frog splash for no reason. This, I feel, is because he knows he cant move laterally and is trying other ways to make up for it. Other ways than, you know, losing some weight and working hard at pushing off. This, to me, is the major reason why our whole goalie department needs to be fired.

- He is the worst goalie in the league in terms of athletic ability
- He is probably the worst in the league at tracking pucks, making an effort to see through screens, despite his massive frame.
- He is probably the worst in the league at reacting to passes. Combined with his terrible technique, he gets locked into position when an east west happens because his brain is fried because of zero anticipation and then the shitty technique also comes into play
- He doesn't do a single thing above average, yet carries himself like he's Vasilevksiy as literally the only thing he's "improved" is his mental gymnastics routine he uses to justify his poor ass play.

He hasn't regressed at all, he was the same last year. He had maybe 2 good games in playoffs. Our ability to limit high danger scoring chances throughout the first three rounds really made him look better than he was. He still let in bad goals, almost choked the Vancouver series single-handedly, and we saw what happened in the finals. Could not stop any good scoring chance while we watched Bob stand on his head.

I agree with everything you said except Bob stood on his head. He actually let in more goals than Skinner and was Bob was only .899.

 

[Spawn]

I agree with everything you said except Bob stood on his head. He actually let in more goals than Skinner and was Bob was only .899.

Eh, Bobrovsky was basically unbeatable in three of the games and had another good start. His numbers looked bad because of a couple blow out losses where the Oilers steamrolled their whole team.

 

[CrazyJoeDavola]

Eh, Bobrovsky was basically unbeatable in three of the games and had another good start. His numbers looked bad because of a couple blow out losses where the Oilers steamrolled their whole team.

Yup. Bob stole 2 of the first three games, and then tapered off. But, by then, it was over. If Stewed Skinner was .900 once in the first three games, we might end up 2-1 (at worst, 1-2). Who knows what happens then.

 

[Oilerfan4lyfe]

Stat of the day- Oilers are 34-1-2 with above .900 goaltending. That’s incredible.

I think you found that on X so I don’t blame you, but it’s not true.

Nov 6 we lost against Vegas in regulation with .912, Nov 18 we lost against Montreal in regulation with .917. That’s two regulation losses right there. I don’t have time to check the rest.

Sorry to be that guy, but it annoys me when people make up numbers.

Also, Stu is an abysmal goalie. If Anaheim wasn’t going to play Gibson anyways, why not retain half and give him up for a bag of pucks? Rumors are that they wanted a 1st rounder for Gibson.

 

[Zerotonine]

What of liked to seen Oliver get a shot. Fk in dislike knoblach, almost as much as I disliked tippet and that days alot cuz tippet coached Dallas in the late 90s

 

[McDrai]

Good on Picks for doing what he can. If we don't use him game 1 of the playoffs, Knoblauch is a coward.

Knob will go with Skinner to start the LA series and then desperately rely on Pickard a couple of games into the series (after Skinner inevitably shits the bed). Watch it happen like clockwork. The media will also do their whole song and dance (probably cherry pick some Skinner stats from his one good series against Dallas). The problem with the Oilers is that they are too darn predictable

 

[MessierThanThou]

Yeah. In what universe is missing Stu Skinner an actual problem.

For me not seeing him makes the games a whole lot more enjoyable.

I wish there was a stat to quantify all the times he sank us on the first eight shots and put the entire team and fanbase in panic mode to start a game. And that's when he was technically playing well! He finished a lot of those games with over .900 yet still felt like the team's biggest obstacle. I hope he recuperates for the rest of the season and entire playoffs too. I've seen enough of him in the regular season and postseason to have zero faith in the guy.

 

[SaltNPeca]

View attachment 1004796

NCAA goalie stats can be deceptive, especially as Denver is a wagon. But I agree this guy is a stud and worth a look.

Take a look at his backup, another Calgary kid who put up 3 shutouts as a freshman. 6'5" 210 lbs. It'll be interesting to see how he performs in the upcoming seasons when Davis is gone.

 

[Fourier]

Be interesting to see actually what is % of goalies drafted by teams make it as a bonafide starter

Quant hockey is the place to look for this. Not exactly what you are asking but you can see round by round success rates. This link gives you the first round:

First round NHL draft picks<br>Goalies games played leaders

Roughly 1/2 of the goalies taken in the first round played 100+ games. By my count about 25 of the 68 goalies drafted in the first round became legitimate starters. That's actually not so bad a ratio. A goalie playing 100 games is more impressive than a forward playing 100 games. Lets say it is more like a forward playing 200 games. In that case only 238 of the 934 forwards drafted in the first round played 200 or more games. But this also includes everyone ever drafted so if you want to play with the data you could set an age limit to see how more recent picks did.

Now if you want to do it by teams you can still get the data but it takes more work.

Edmonton Oilers all time draft picks by round

Edmonton Oilers all time draft picks by round

www.quanthockey.com

The Oilers for example took 2 guys in the first round and both became legitimate starters, one is in the Hall of Fame. The Oilers took 6 guys in the second round including Rodrigue and Vinni. Of the 4 older guys they are 0 for 4 even for NHL backups.

3rd round ----4 choices with Skinner being the only "success"

4th round -----0 for 3

5th round ---- 9 picks with Markkanen being the only minor success

6th round---- 2 picks including Day

7th round-----1 for 7 but that 1 was Andy Moog!!!

8th and beyond ----0 for 13

So for the Oilers they have drafted 46 goalies and their successes so far are Fuhr, Moog, Dubnyk, Skinner and Markkanen. Fuhr and Moog were obviously home runs. But after that it is paper thin. And many people on the these boards probably never saw either Fuhr or Moog play for the Oilers.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

The Oilers are 9 points up on the Lames and 10 pts up on the Nucks.

The Oilers have 8 games left, as do the Lames and the Nucks have 7 games left, so the Oilers magic number is 5?

 

[Fourier]

I think you found that on X so I don’t blame you, but it’s not true.

Nov 6 we lost against Vegas in regulation with .912, Nov 18 we lost against Montreal in regulation with .917. That’s two regulation losses right there. I don’t have time to check the rest.

Sorry to be that guy, but it annoys me when people make up numbers.

Also, Stu is an abysmal goalie. If Anaheim wasn’t going to play Gibson anyways, why not retain half and give him up for a bag of pucks? Rumors are that they wanted a 1st rounder for Gibson.

I don't think the numbers were simply made up. It may well have been a relatively simple miscount. I think the actual numbers are 33-3-2 which is still pretty much in the same ballpark as the quoted numbers. In those 5 losses the Oilers scored a combined 6 goals.

Lets put this in perspective. At that pace over 82 games the team would have 147 points. Of course no one would expect that a team could play 82 games with .900+ goaltending. But this shows how likely it is that the team wins with .900+ goaltending.