OFFSEASON BASELINE. This is going to be a long one detailing a number of scenarios and how they look in 25-26, 26-27, and 27-28.
If there is a scenario you want me to go over just reply here and I can go through it.
ASSUMPTIONS
Luke 9 mill
Kovy: 4 mill
Bass/Lazar: 1.5 mill (can be substituted as simply any 4th line depth if you want them gone)
Cap: 95 mill 25-26, 100 mill 26-27, 105 mill 27-28 (I honestly expect a steeper rise but this is a baseline, added 200k to get to round numbers here as basically all scenarios have
approx 3 mill on healthy scratches unless otherwise stated
Overall, starting with this baseline roster and cap situation: 13.5 mill in space
Option 1: keep lineup as is, with bastian back to 4RW, Lazar 4C, Haula 3C, Hamilton and Kovy on D. (if you want to swap Nemec here for an ELC forward prospect in this go ahead, not relevant to cap since incoming would also be ELC presumably)
Pros: elite dcore, continuity, no long term cap issues, opportunity to sell elite D prospects for assets
Cons: bottom 6 depth, aging from Haula/Palat especially, pissing off Nemec, risk of 1 year wonder
25-26 Roster:
FUTURE OUTLOOK:
26-27:
Available Cap: 14.5 million
Guys to replace/resign: Cotter, Haula, Gritysuk, Goalies
Key Prospects/Assets: Nemec, Casey, Lenni, Silayev
Potential Cap Clearing Guys: Palat (6x1), Hamilton (9x2), Dillon (4x2)
Major Causes of Variability: Arseni could have a wide range of contracts depending on term and how well he plays as a rookie. Silayev, Casey, Nemec. Any of them forcing their way into the lineup allows you to sell a more expensive dman (listed above). In Nemecs case he will require a non ELC contract in this year.
My Take: Viable to fill out roster even without utilizing our prospect base or dumping, although I'd expect Nemec to be moved in this scenario. A long term goalie must be found in this year however.
27-28:
Available Cap: 42.5 million
Guys to replace/resign: Cotter, Haula, Gritysuk, Goalies, Hischier, Mercer, Palat, Noesen, Dillon (assuming 15 mill from previous year still intact, leaves 28 mill to resign/replace bolded 4)
Key Prospects/Assets: Nemec, Casey, Lenni, Silayev
Potential Cap Clearing Guys: Hamilton (9x1), Dillon (4x1)
Major Causes of Variability: Arseni (above), Nico (will he go for top dollar of be willing to take a more friendly deal, my current estimate is 10 mill AAV), Mercer (does he finally break out or continue to stagnate/term), Silayev/Nemec/Casey: As above, although in this year Casey will no longer be on ELC as well as Nemec
Option 2: Let Kovy walk (or if you want to get real spicy, trade him at deadline. Would not impact our long term cap beyond having some extra futures to play with and use as assets)
Pros: improved bottom 6, younger, more dynamic offensively
Cons: lose defense, risk breaking up elite shutdown pair, PK impact
25-26 Roster: 3.5 mill to sign 3C/more pricey goalie
FUTURE OUTLOOK:
26-27:
Available Cap: 19.5 million
Guys to replace/resign: Cotter, Haula, Gritysuk, 3C, Goalies, Nemec: NOTE (Bastian is currently a scratch in this scenario, if you want you can put him into 4th line, in which case you only need to sign 3 forwards, although you'd have to account for another scratch approx 1 mill)
Key Prospects/Assets: Casey, Lenni, Silayev
Potential Cap Clearing Guys: Palat (6x1), Hamilton (9x2), Dillon (4x2)
Major Causes of Variability: Arseni (read option 1), Nemec (this is the largest cause of variability. He could play himself into requiring an 8+ mill deal, be bridged, not breakout, etc etc. Anywhere from 2 to even 9+ mill could be possible. High end means likely shipping dougie out, or at the VERY least Dillon+Palat. Additionally, ELC bonus rollover could come into play. 1 mill almost certainly as full time, if he explodes could be expensive B bonuses), Casey/Silayev (read option 1)
My Take: This is a very good roster if Nemec can live up to expectations. Risk of getting squeezed if Nemec shows out as truly elite in 25-26, but that is a good problem to have. Again, NEED to lock down goalie so it does not become an annual sinkhole of resources.
27-28:
Available Cap: 47.5 million
Guys to replace/resign: Cotter, Haula, Gritysuk, 3C Goalies, Nemec, Hischier, Mercer, Palat, Noesen, Dillon (assuming 19 mill from previous year still intact, leaves 28 mill to resign/replace bolded 4) (same bastian scenario as before)
Key Prospects/Assets: Nemec, Casey, Lenni, Silayev
Potential Cap Clearing Guys: Hamilton (9x1), Dillon (4x1)
Major Causes of Variability: Arseni, Nico, Mercer, Silayev, Casey (same as option 1 in this year), Nemec (read above)
Option 3: Trade Hamilton (unretained)
Pros: younger, faster, large cap savings
Cons: lose big offensive impact, large PP impact, not really any big holes in need of such a large amount to spend
My Take: I worry about making a bad decision in UFA here that really hampers us long term. I'd look to shorter term guys in trade to use the space, maybe even taking on short term, still effective cap dumps to add futures while still being effective, or get a head start on locking down a star/youngster goalie (eg taking on 4.5 mill knight to then have him for the future)
25-26 Roster: 8.5 mill to sign 3C/more pricey goalie
FUTURE OUTLOOK:
26-27:
Available Cap: 24.5 million
Guys to replace/resign: Cotter, Haula, Gritysuk, 3C, Goalies, Nemec: NOTE (Bastian is currently a scratch in this scenario, if you want you can put him into 4th line, in which case you only need to sign 3 forwards, although you'd have to account for another scratch approx 1 mill)
Key Prospects/Assets: Casey, Lenni, Silayev
Potential Cap Clearing Guys: Palat (6x1), Dillon (4x2)
Major Causes of Variability: Arseni (read option 1), Nemec (read option 2)
My Take: requires a lot of trust in Nemec and Kovy to step up. Could be very risky and lead to a step back (similar to when we let Sevo and Graves go). Again, need to find a goalie.
27-28:
Available Cap: 52.5 million
Guys to replace/resign: Cotter, Haula, Gritysuk, 3C, Goalies, Nemec, Hischier, Mercer, Palat, Noesen, Dillon (assuming 24 mill from previous year still intact, leaves 28 mill to resign/replace bolded 4), same scenario with bastian
Key Prospects/Assets: Nemec, Casey, Lenni, Silayev
Potential Cap Clearing Guys: Dillon (4x1)
Major Causes of Variability: Arseni, Nico, Mercer, Silayev, Casey (same as option 1 in this year), Nemec (read above, no ELC bonuses at play this year)
Scenario 4: Palat dump
Pros: elite dcore, continuity, no long term cap issues, opportunity to sell elite D prospects for assets
Cons: aging from Haula, pissing off Nemec, risk of 1 year wonder in Kovy, lose leadership, cost to dump
25-26 Roster: 6.5 mill to fill 2 slots
FUTURE OUTLOOK:
26-27:
Available Cap: 21.5 million
Guys to replace/resign: Cotter, Haula, Gritysuk, Goalies, Palat, 3C (same bastian case blah blah)
Key Prospects/Assets: Nemec, Casey, Lenni, Silayev
Potential Cap Clearing Guys: , Hamilton (9x2), Dillon (4x2)
Major Causes of Variability: Same as option 1
My Take: Should be a strong roster
27-28:
Available Cap: 43.5 million
Guys to replace/resign: Cotter, Haula, Gritysuk, Goalies, Hischier, Mercer, Palat, Noesen, Dillon (assuming 15 mill from previous year still intact, leaves 28 mill to resign/replace bolded 4), (same bastian case)
Key Prospects/Assets: Nemec, Casey, Lenni, Silayev
Potential Cap Clearing Guys: Hamilton (9x1), Dillon (4x1)
Major Causes of Variability: Same as option 1
Option 5: Hamilton with 3 mill retention
Pros: younger, faster, cap savings
Cons: lose big offensive impact, large PP impact, not really any big holes in need of such a large amount to spend
My Take: This imo is the perfect sweet spot to maximize return to that of a pretty big haul, making him very desirable, while leaving us the imo just right amount to go fill the hole at 3C
25-26 Roster: 5.5 mill to sign 3C/more pricey goalie
FUTURE OUTLOOK:
26-27:
Available Cap: 21.5 million
Guys to replace/resign: Cotter, Haula, Gritysuk, 3C, Goalies, Nemec: NOTE (Bastian is currently a scratch in this scenario, if you want you can put him into 4th line, in which case you only need to sign 3 forwards, although you'd have to account for another scratch approx 1 mill)
Key Prospects/Assets: Casey, Lenni, Silayev
Potential Cap Clearing Guys: Palat (6x1), Dillon (4x1)
Major Causes of Variability: Arseni (read option 1), Nemec (read option 2)
My Take: I think we can use assets here to really maximize things. This is the crunch year where things get somewhat tight, but manageable
I would ship out 1 of Dillon or Palat (I think Dillon with Silayev coming in) to fill a roster like this (Goalies are just an estimate of what 8 mill spending in net may look like)
27-28:
Available Cap: 49.5 million
Guys to replace/resign: Cotter, Haula, Gritysuk, 3C, Goalies, Nemec, Hischier, Mercer, Palat, Noesen, DIllon (assuming 22 mill from previous year still intact, leaves 28 mill to resign/replace bolded 4), same scenario with bastian
Key Prospects/Assets: Nemec, Casey, Lenni, Silayev
Potential Cap Clearing Guys:
Major Causes of Variability: Arseni, Nico, Mercer, Silayev, Casey (same as option 1 in this year), Nemec (read above, no ELC bonuses at play this year)
Things open up a ton here. Lots of money to play with, a very good dcore, and ideally a number of assets to play with.
Future Scenarios to be done in priority order
-Trade Palat+Let Kovy walk
-Mercer trades
-Palat and Dougie out
-Any specific targets/trades you guys suggest/want me to go over
If there is a scenario you want me to go over just reply here and I can go through it.
ASSUMPTIONS
Luke 9 mill
Kovy: 4 mill
Bass/Lazar: 1.5 mill (can be substituted as simply any 4th line depth if you want them gone)
Cap: 95 mill 25-26, 100 mill 26-27, 105 mill 27-28 (I honestly expect a steeper rise but this is a baseline, added 200k to get to round numbers here as basically all scenarios have
approx 3 mill on healthy scratches unless otherwise stated
Overall, starting with this baseline roster and cap situation: 13.5 mill in space
Option 1: keep lineup as is, with bastian back to 4RW, Lazar 4C, Haula 3C, Hamilton and Kovy on D. (if you want to swap Nemec here for an ELC forward prospect in this go ahead, not relevant to cap since incoming would also be ELC presumably)
Pros: elite dcore, continuity, no long term cap issues, opportunity to sell elite D prospects for assets
Cons: bottom 6 depth, aging from Haula/Palat especially, pissing off Nemec, risk of 1 year wonder
25-26 Roster:
FUTURE OUTLOOK:
26-27:
Available Cap: 14.5 million
Guys to replace/resign: Cotter, Haula, Gritysuk, Goalies
Key Prospects/Assets: Nemec, Casey, Lenni, Silayev
Potential Cap Clearing Guys: Palat (6x1), Hamilton (9x2), Dillon (4x2)
Major Causes of Variability: Arseni could have a wide range of contracts depending on term and how well he plays as a rookie. Silayev, Casey, Nemec. Any of them forcing their way into the lineup allows you to sell a more expensive dman (listed above). In Nemecs case he will require a non ELC contract in this year.
My Take: Viable to fill out roster even without utilizing our prospect base or dumping, although I'd expect Nemec to be moved in this scenario. A long term goalie must be found in this year however.
27-28:
Available Cap: 42.5 million
Guys to replace/resign: Cotter, Haula, Gritysuk, Goalies, Hischier, Mercer, Palat, Noesen, Dillon (assuming 15 mill from previous year still intact, leaves 28 mill to resign/replace bolded 4)
Key Prospects/Assets: Nemec, Casey, Lenni, Silayev
Potential Cap Clearing Guys: Hamilton (9x1), Dillon (4x1)
Major Causes of Variability: Arseni (above), Nico (will he go for top dollar of be willing to take a more friendly deal, my current estimate is 10 mill AAV), Mercer (does he finally break out or continue to stagnate/term), Silayev/Nemec/Casey: As above, although in this year Casey will no longer be on ELC as well as Nemec
Option 2: Let Kovy walk (or if you want to get real spicy, trade him at deadline. Would not impact our long term cap beyond having some extra futures to play with and use as assets)
Pros: improved bottom 6, younger, more dynamic offensively
Cons: lose defense, risk breaking up elite shutdown pair, PK impact
25-26 Roster: 3.5 mill to sign 3C/more pricey goalie
FUTURE OUTLOOK:
26-27:
Available Cap: 19.5 million
Guys to replace/resign: Cotter, Haula, Gritysuk, 3C, Goalies, Nemec: NOTE (Bastian is currently a scratch in this scenario, if you want you can put him into 4th line, in which case you only need to sign 3 forwards, although you'd have to account for another scratch approx 1 mill)
Key Prospects/Assets: Casey, Lenni, Silayev
Potential Cap Clearing Guys: Palat (6x1), Hamilton (9x2), Dillon (4x2)
Major Causes of Variability: Arseni (read option 1), Nemec (this is the largest cause of variability. He could play himself into requiring an 8+ mill deal, be bridged, not breakout, etc etc. Anywhere from 2 to even 9+ mill could be possible. High end means likely shipping dougie out, or at the VERY least Dillon+Palat. Additionally, ELC bonus rollover could come into play. 1 mill almost certainly as full time, if he explodes could be expensive B bonuses), Casey/Silayev (read option 1)
My Take: This is a very good roster if Nemec can live up to expectations. Risk of getting squeezed if Nemec shows out as truly elite in 25-26, but that is a good problem to have. Again, NEED to lock down goalie so it does not become an annual sinkhole of resources.
27-28:
Available Cap: 47.5 million
Guys to replace/resign: Cotter, Haula, Gritysuk, 3C Goalies, Nemec, Hischier, Mercer, Palat, Noesen, Dillon (assuming 19 mill from previous year still intact, leaves 28 mill to resign/replace bolded 4) (same bastian scenario as before)
Key Prospects/Assets: Nemec, Casey, Lenni, Silayev
Potential Cap Clearing Guys: Hamilton (9x1), Dillon (4x1)
Major Causes of Variability: Arseni, Nico, Mercer, Silayev, Casey (same as option 1 in this year), Nemec (read above)
Option 3: Trade Hamilton (unretained)
Pros: younger, faster, large cap savings
Cons: lose big offensive impact, large PP impact, not really any big holes in need of such a large amount to spend
My Take: I worry about making a bad decision in UFA here that really hampers us long term. I'd look to shorter term guys in trade to use the space, maybe even taking on short term, still effective cap dumps to add futures while still being effective, or get a head start on locking down a star/youngster goalie (eg taking on 4.5 mill knight to then have him for the future)
25-26 Roster: 8.5 mill to sign 3C/more pricey goalie
FUTURE OUTLOOK:
26-27:
Available Cap: 24.5 million
Guys to replace/resign: Cotter, Haula, Gritysuk, 3C, Goalies, Nemec: NOTE (Bastian is currently a scratch in this scenario, if you want you can put him into 4th line, in which case you only need to sign 3 forwards, although you'd have to account for another scratch approx 1 mill)
Key Prospects/Assets: Casey, Lenni, Silayev
Potential Cap Clearing Guys: Palat (6x1), Dillon (4x2)
Major Causes of Variability: Arseni (read option 1), Nemec (read option 2)
My Take: requires a lot of trust in Nemec and Kovy to step up. Could be very risky and lead to a step back (similar to when we let Sevo and Graves go). Again, need to find a goalie.
27-28:
Available Cap: 52.5 million
Guys to replace/resign: Cotter, Haula, Gritysuk, 3C, Goalies, Nemec, Hischier, Mercer, Palat, Noesen, Dillon (assuming 24 mill from previous year still intact, leaves 28 mill to resign/replace bolded 4), same scenario with bastian
Key Prospects/Assets: Nemec, Casey, Lenni, Silayev
Potential Cap Clearing Guys: Dillon (4x1)
Major Causes of Variability: Arseni, Nico, Mercer, Silayev, Casey (same as option 1 in this year), Nemec (read above, no ELC bonuses at play this year)
Scenario 4: Palat dump
Pros: elite dcore, continuity, no long term cap issues, opportunity to sell elite D prospects for assets
Cons: aging from Haula, pissing off Nemec, risk of 1 year wonder in Kovy, lose leadership, cost to dump
25-26 Roster: 6.5 mill to fill 2 slots
FUTURE OUTLOOK:
26-27:
Available Cap: 21.5 million
Guys to replace/resign: Cotter, Haula, Gritysuk, Goalies, Palat, 3C (same bastian case blah blah)
Key Prospects/Assets: Nemec, Casey, Lenni, Silayev
Potential Cap Clearing Guys: , Hamilton (9x2), Dillon (4x2)
Major Causes of Variability: Same as option 1
My Take: Should be a strong roster
27-28:
Available Cap: 43.5 million
Guys to replace/resign: Cotter, Haula, Gritysuk, Goalies, Hischier, Mercer, Palat, Noesen, Dillon (assuming 15 mill from previous year still intact, leaves 28 mill to resign/replace bolded 4), (same bastian case)
Key Prospects/Assets: Nemec, Casey, Lenni, Silayev
Potential Cap Clearing Guys: Hamilton (9x1), Dillon (4x1)
Major Causes of Variability: Same as option 1
Option 5: Hamilton with 3 mill retention
Pros: younger, faster, cap savings
Cons: lose big offensive impact, large PP impact, not really any big holes in need of such a large amount to spend
My Take: This imo is the perfect sweet spot to maximize return to that of a pretty big haul, making him very desirable, while leaving us the imo just right amount to go fill the hole at 3C
25-26 Roster: 5.5 mill to sign 3C/more pricey goalie
FUTURE OUTLOOK:
26-27:
Available Cap: 21.5 million
Guys to replace/resign: Cotter, Haula, Gritysuk, 3C, Goalies, Nemec: NOTE (Bastian is currently a scratch in this scenario, if you want you can put him into 4th line, in which case you only need to sign 3 forwards, although you'd have to account for another scratch approx 1 mill)
Key Prospects/Assets: Casey, Lenni, Silayev
Potential Cap Clearing Guys: Palat (6x1), Dillon (4x1)
Major Causes of Variability: Arseni (read option 1), Nemec (read option 2)
My Take: I think we can use assets here to really maximize things. This is the crunch year where things get somewhat tight, but manageable
I would ship out 1 of Dillon or Palat (I think Dillon with Silayev coming in) to fill a roster like this (Goalies are just an estimate of what 8 mill spending in net may look like)
27-28:
Available Cap: 49.5 million
Guys to replace/resign: Cotter, Haula, Gritysuk, 3C, Goalies, Nemec, Hischier, Mercer, Palat, Noesen, DIllon (assuming 22 mill from previous year still intact, leaves 28 mill to resign/replace bolded 4), same scenario with bastian
Key Prospects/Assets: Nemec, Casey, Lenni, Silayev
Potential Cap Clearing Guys:
Major Causes of Variability: Arseni, Nico, Mercer, Silayev, Casey (same as option 1 in this year), Nemec (read above, no ELC bonuses at play this year)
Things open up a ton here. Lots of money to play with, a very good dcore, and ideally a number of assets to play with.
Future Scenarios to be done in priority order
-Trade Palat+Let Kovy walk
-Mercer trades
-Palat and Dougie out
-Any specific targets/trades you guys suggest/want me to go over
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