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Official Tank Thread

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Grate n Colorful Oz said:
Nah, the real lesson is you cannot compare a draft pool from 20 years ago, with much lower picks and a different management.
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There's even more parity now, more teams, more competition than ever before, everyone is better from the goalies to the #7 Dmen to the plugs and 'enforcers'.

If that's the lesson you learned then you're setting yourself up for another heartbreak, IMO.
 
Both the tank people and the playoff optimists were and are kinda foolish. I set my over/under at 83.5 at the beginning of the season and still believe Habs end up around there
 
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5 points from top 5 pick
5 points from playoff spot

indecisive-i-dont-know.gif
 
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HuGort said:
We draft 11 and 16 as of today. Should get too good players out of that.
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I can’t think of a worse position then picking 11. Not a big enough increase in the standings to call the season a success and just high enough to take us out of the top 10 for the draft.
 
HuGo Burner Acc said:
Both the tank people and the playoff optimists were and are kinda foolish. I set my over/under at 83.5 at the beginning of the season and still believe Habs end up around there
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With Guhle out, not sure your prediction will stand.

If we sell Evans on top of losing Guhle, we could end up witha top 5 pick. Injuries were always going to be the biggest determinent, considering our lack of talent depth.
 
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Grate n Colorful Oz said:
With Guhle out, not sure your prediction will stand.

If we sell Evans on top of losing Guhle, we could end up witha top 5 pick. Injuries were always going to be the biggest determinent, considering our lack of talent depth.
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Without Guhle, we definitely pick top 8. If we sell guys like Armia and Evans before the TD, top 5 pick is a real possibility.
 
WeThreeKings said:
There's no real difference between the players at 8 and the players projected to go at 11.
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That’s a good point I guess. I was hoping we’d either take a real step further this year or just go all in for one more tank season. Just feels like we’re spinning our tires a bit. I guess we still have time to either fall further or get back on track and get higher in the standings.
 
nhlfan9191 said:
That’s a good point I guess. I was hoping we’d either take a real step further this year or just go all in for one more tank season. Just feels like we’re spinning our tires a bit. I guess we still have time to either fall further or get back on track and get higher in the standings.
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It looked like they were taking that step until Heineman and Guhle went down. After that happened, I think it makes total sense that we are regressing back.

See what the team does after the 4-Nations break, but we will still have two well positioned 1st round picks to use, and some really positive news stories.

The biggest thing for the brass this off-season will be looking at the 2C position and adding to the top 4 of the defense.

And they need to make sure they get the development right on Dach, Newhook, Reinbacher, Mailloux and Slafkovsky. There's some steps forward and then some steps back, then health problems.
 
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DAChampion said:
View attachment 973343

It seems like 11th overall gives you an approximate 1/3 chance of getting an impact player.
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Out of curiosity i checked who the Habs drafted 11th overall in their history. Happened twice :

1971 : Murray Wilson
1997 : Jason Ward

The list of 11th overall picks since 2001 is pretty decent though. Som very good players in there
 
HuGo Burner Acc said:
Both the tank people and the playoff optimists were and are kinda foolish. I set my over/under at 83.5 at the beginning of the season and still believe Habs end up around there
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.500 hockey will put us right there. I'd be happier to end up in a better draft position truth be told.
83 points ended up being 22nd last season. I don't think the winning is all that important any longer we've shown what we can do when running on all cylinders. I would hope the last portion of the season is dedicated to developing some of our younger players. A natural sell off would probably help in that regards.
 
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Rapala said:
.500 hockey will put us right there. I'd be happier to end up in a better draft position truth be told.
83 points ended up being 22 last season. I don't think the winning is all that important any longer we've shown what we can do when running on all cylinders. I would hope the last portion of the season is dedicated to developing some of our younger players. A natural sell off would probably help in that regards.
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2021-2022 -> 0.335 pt%; Slafkovsky 1OA
2022-2023 -> 0.415 pt%; Reinbacher 5OA
2023-2024 -> 0.463 pt%, Demidov 5OA
2024-2025 -> 0.509 pt%, TBD

I see a clear uptrend year on year if we finish at or above 0.500.

But this is too abstract, the meat and potatoes of it is simple: the young players who are a part of the future "core" need to show improvement year on year or somehow actually improve.

If we steal points and have old vets and UFAs over-performing, it doesn't really do much for us does it? It doesn't even reinforce 'a winning culture' since we need the CORE players to show up every night, not the departing vets.

On this level, it is less clear if we're experience an uptrend or not. Newhook, Dach, Slaf... haven't improved from last year (Dach's trend is N/A). Has Xhekaj made big improvements? I think Guhle was as good as I've ever seen him, so he's good (freak injury notwithstanding). Barron and Struble did not make sufficient progress.

Hutson's a blessing but a rookie. Dobes seems good, let's see how far he can go.

Anyway I guess what I'm getting at is a regretful acknowledgement that hard-tanking the season from this point out is probably better short and long term. We need more prospects and trade assets. Getting a 2C and 1/2D won't be easy.
 
The reason that id prefer the Habs finish on the bubble than in the top-5 is that regular season performance is a **measurement** of how good the youth core is.

If the team plays so bad that they finish 3rd from the bottom, it means that the team is probably really bad, that they might mean multiple more lottery picks to rise from the bottom. On the other hand if they finish say 10th in the conference, it means that they're close to being a competitive team, and maybe just adding Reinbacher and Demidov is enough.

But obviously the best outcome is to climb 10 spots in the lottery.
 
HuGo Burner Acc said:
Both the tank people and the playoff optimists were and are kinda foolish. I set my over/under at 83.5 at the beginning of the season and still believe Habs end up around there
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I would've agreed if Guhle didn't get hurt. With him gone though I think we're gonna finish in the 70-75 point range, slightly worse than last year.

This team seems very effected by moral, when they're in a slump it gets into their heads and takes ages to get out of it. With Guhle gone I think we're going to be in a slump up until the trade deadline, then when we sell off pieces it's only going to get worse.
 
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