Official Tank Thread

[Schooner Guy]

Without Dach injury, we may have been a bubble-ish team and not even traded Monahan.

And we could have still traded Romanov and kept that pick instead of Dach.

That's ridiculous! Dach's so good that he could have put us in playoff contention but he's so bad that we shouldn't have traded for him at age 21. You're all over the place.

 

[ReHabs]

No. They were very barely in their 20s when we traded for them and medium term investments. Not short term. We bought low on them because of their situations with their previous teams.

Have you ever looked at the odds of late 1sts and early 2nds having meaningful NHL careers? I believe you once called those picks magic beans. Dach and Newhook were higher percentage bets.

The commentary is based on the notion that we need to strap in for a “Long Rebuild”. These shortcut moves (trading magic beans, indeed) are at odds with it.

Therefore, if it isn’t a Long Rebuild, then we shouldn’t be happy to see such a big setback this season.

At least in one’s frame of reference it should be one or the other: you either expected and wanted a short rebuild or a long rebuild. It can’t be that the Dach/Newhook moves are par for the course and also we need to endure 8 years of losing.

Dach missed the entire season last year due to a serious knee injury. It would be premature to close the book on him especially after what we saw in Caufield's goal scoring his first season back after shoulder surgery.

Dach missed long swaths of time before the trade too. It’s why he was put up for trade in the first place. Chicago closed the book on him.

It’s worth noting

I think you're picking apart a nothingburger on those trades.

Those trades are part of a pattern that indicates “Short Rebuild”. Don’t you think?

 

[Runner77]

That's ridiculous! Dach's so good that he could have put us in playoff contention but he's so bad that we shouldn't have traded for him at age 21. You're all over the place.

A lot of us seem to forget how positive Dach’s progress was, pre-injury. There doesn’t appear to be any physical limitations that are causing his current sub par level of play (not unexpected, following major surgery and long period of inactivity).

Listening to Patrick Friolet this morning, who is on the Habs beat and is around the team daily, he’s convinced that Dach’s issues are mental — which probably aligns with what most of us are perceiving about his struggles.

 

[Schooner Guy]

Those trades are part of a pattern that indicates “Short Rebuild”. Don’t you think?

I see them as low risk, high reward trades for very young players with upside who the Habs can try to develop.

 

[OnTheRun]

The commentary is based on the notion that we need to strap in for a “Long Rebuild”. These shortcut moves (trading magic beans, indeed) are at odds with it.

Therefore, if it isn’t a Long Rebuild, then we shouldn’t be happy to see such a big setback this season.

At least in one’s frame of reference it should be one or the other: you either expected and wanted a short rebuild or a long rebuild. It can’t be that the Dach/Newhook moves are par for the course and also we need to endure 8 years of losing.

Dach missed long swaths of time before the trade too. It’s why he was put up for trade in the first place. Chicago closed the book on him.

It’s worth noting

Those trades are part of a pattern that indicates “Short Rebuild”. Don’t you think?

Bro... The rebuild doesn't hinges on 2 reclamation projects. Taking a flyer on two guys with an uncertain trajectory isn't a shortcut either, it just an alternate route of using the picks to draft 2~3 guys with a uncertain trajectory.

If Dach and/or Newhook aren't it then someone else will swoop in and take the roster spot(s) and that someone could be one of our draftee or a FA or a trade return. (If you want a "short rebuild" you need to acquire youngish players of known quality that move the needle right off the bat.)

 

[ReHabs]

I see them as low risk, high reward trades for very young players with upside who the Habs can try to develop.

Three seasons in, Dach has trended down and lost value. Newhook has lost value. Low-risk? Maybe, sure.

Bro... The rebuild doesn't hinges on 2 reclamation projects. Taking a flyer on two guys with an uncertain trajectory isn't a shortcut either, it just an alternate route of using the picks to draft 2~3 guys with a uncertain trajectory.

So you think the pair of moves are rebuild-neutral? Fair enough.

If Dach and/or Newhook aren't it then someone else will swoop in and take the roster spot(s) and that someone could be one of our draftee or a FA or a trade return.

We don’t have any depth whatsoever to replace them two. It’s partially bad roster building partially bad luck.

(If you want a "short rebuild" you need to acquire youngish players of known quality that move the needle right off the bat.)

I thought those two moves only make sense in a Short Rebuild scenario. Therefore if they went wrong, as they have so far, we’d fall back to a Long Rebuild scenario. It’s unfortunate and a net loss of asset value if you tried to make some moves now to acquire an actual capable 2C who isn’t afraid of contact and an actual capable middle6 winger who isn’t a disaster.

It’s not a big deal in the scope of the daunting Long Rebuild we’re facing but I guess what I’m trying to put over is that the Habs have earned some criticism for getting it wrong so far. We’re not in the honeymoon phase.

 

[OnTheRun]

Three seasons in, Dach has trended down and lost value. Newhook has lost value. Low-risk? Maybe, sure.


So you think the pair of moves are rebuild-neutral? Fair enough.

We don’t have any depth whatsoever to replace them two. It’s partially bad roster building partially bad luck.

I thought those two moves only make sense in a Short Rebuild scenario. Therefore if they went wrong, as they have so far, we’d fall back to a Long Rebuild scenario. It’s unfortunate and a net loss of asset value if you tried to make some moves now to acquire an actual capable 2C who isn’t afraid of contact and an actual capable middle6 winger who isn’t a disaster.

It’s not a big deal in the scope of the daunting Long Rebuild we’re facing but I guess what I’m trying to put over is that the Habs have earned some criticism for getting it wrong so far. We’re not in the honeymoon phase.

So you are saying your perception of the rebuild would be wildly different if we had Fairbrother, Nazar and Hayes in the AHL, Gulyayev in the KHL and Gauthier in the Q instead of Dach and Newhook?

 

[morhilane]

A lot of us seem to forget how positive Dach’s progress was, pre-injury. There doesn’t appear to be any physical limitations that are causing his current sub par level of play (not unexpected, following major surgery and long period of inactivity).

Listening to Patrick Friolet this morning, who is on the Habs beat and is around the team daily, he’s convinced that Dach’s issues are mental — which probably aligns with what most of us are perceiving about his struggles.

All the team issues are mental (outside the actually injured players). What make no sense is that more than half the team is having mental problems at the same time.

Either none of them can handle pressure or there is something rotten around the team.

 

[red devil]

A lot of us seem to forget how positive Dach’s progress was, pre-injury. There doesn’t appear to be any physical limitations that are causing his current sub par level of play (not unexpected, following major surgery and long period of inactivity).

Listening to Patrick Friolet this morning, who is on the Habs beat and is around the team daily, he’s convinced that Dach’s issues are mental — which probably aligns with what most of us are perceiving about his struggles.

On the Basu and Godin podcast, Arpon mentioned that Kirby says he needs to stop playing safe. Basu said Dach understands that he needs to go out there and make plays and stop being hesitant. It seems to be in the back of Dach's mind that is causing him not being aggressive as he wants and needs to out on the ice.

 

[cave troll]

Since we're main candidates for 1OA pick 3 years after we drafted 1 OA, seems to me that Phase 1 of the rebuild failed, the team didn't progress a step, and we're in for another batch of Top 5 picks in next 3 years which will be Phase 2.
I hope Phase 3 will not be needed, but a man can never be sure.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Since we're main candidates for 1OA pick 3 years after we drafted 1 OA, seems to me that Phase 1 of the rebuild failed,

????? Most of the guys we’ve drafted aren’t with the team yet.

the team didn't progress a step, and we're in for another batch of Top 5 picks in next 3 years which will be Phase 2.
I hope Phase 3 will not be needed, but a man can never be sure.

Dude, this is how rebuilds work. Yes, we expected the team to be better this year but with or without that the rebuild hasn’t really changed. It would’ve been great to get results quicker but it doesn’t usually work that way.

 

[cave troll]

?????

Dude, this is how rebuilds work. Yes, we expected the team to be better this year but with or without that the rebuild hasn’t really changed. It would’ve been great to get results quicker but it doesn’t usually work that way.

Yes. Especially Buffalo Sabres rebuild.
Endless rebuilds lasting for a decade usually end up with GMs and coaches getting canned one after another. I'm not saying ours will fail, but I don't see us raising from the bottom swamp in next 3-4 years. Roster is horrible with too many floaters and supposed talents who look totally confused on the ice. We have too many gaping holes in our forward lines and basically an AHL defence.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Yes. Especially Buffalo Sabres rebuild.
Endless rebuilds lasting for a decade usually end up with GMs and coaches getting canned one after another. I'm not saying ours will fail, but I don't see us raising from the bottom swamp in next 3-4 years. Roster is horrible with too many floaters and supposed talents who look totally confused on the ice. We have too many gaping holes in our forward lines and basically an AHL defence.

We are barely out the door here. Three drafts in.

If we're still struggling in two years, then you can start talking about the Sabres.

 

[OnTheRun]

Since we're main candidates for 1OA pick 3 years after we drafted 1 OA, seems to me that Phase 1 of the rebuild failed, the team didn't progress a step, and we're in for another batch of Top 5 picks in next 3 years which will be Phase 2.
I hope Phase 3 will not be needed, but a man can never be sure.

Let's see how it look since 2012... Using Montreal 1-5-5-x as a baseline.
2012 EDM: 1-7-3-1
2013 COL: 1-23-10-10
2014 FLA: 1-11-23-10
2015 EDM: 1-4-22-10
2016 TOR: 1-17-29(25)-NA(22)
2017 NJ: 1-17-1-7
2018 BUF: 1-7-8-1
2019 NJ: 1-7-4-2
2020 NYR: 1-16-NA(30)-23
2021 BUF: 1-9-13-14
2022 MTL: 1-5-5-x
2023 CHI: 1-2-x-x
2024 SJ: 1-x-x-x

Draft_1OA+3 is generally not awesome for anyone. Quick observation is only 2 teams were playoffs team by then: NYR haven't won anything yet and Toronto who can't win a round. Only one team was "in the mix" and ironically it had to be BUFFALO, which is supposed to be the poster-child of failed rebuild.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

seems to me that Phase 1 of the rebuild failed, the team didn't progress a step

Any serious understanding of a rebuild starts with the comprehension that the first phase is to draft high and replenish the asset base. The second phase is developing them. From rebuild drafts we've only added Slaf and Hutson whom are both 20 years old.

There's no way around this logic because what sent us to the bottom in the first place was a depleted asset base. Whatever was drafted before the team cratered wasn't part of the drafting attempts in the rebuild with the management in place for the rebuild. Present management can't be blamed for either the sorry state of our asset base when they took over, nor the mediocrity of the prospect pool at the time.

Their primary goal is to replenish our asset base and they've been doing fine so far. Dach, Newhook and Barron were gambles to try to accelerate things. They are secondary in the grand scheme of things. What is primary is how our rebuild drafts will turn out. How Slaf, Hutson, Demidov, Hage, Fowler, Reinbacher, and others who were or will be drafted for the rebuild, will do. And it's way too early to tell. Anything else is secondary.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Let's see how it look since 2012... Using Montreal 1-5-5-x as a baseline.
2012 EDM: 1-7-3-1
2013 COL: 1-23-10-10
2014 FLA: 1-11-23-10
2015 EDM: 1-4-22-10
2016 TOR: 1-17-29(25)-NA(22)
2017 NJ: 1-17-1-7
2018 BUF: 1-7-8-1
2019 NJ: 1-7-4-2
2020 NYR: 1-16-NA(30)-23
2021 BUF: 1-9-13-14
2022 MTL: 1-5-5-x
2023 CHI: 1-2-x-x
2024 SJ: 1-x-x-x

Draft_1OA+3 is generally not awesome for anyone. Quick observation is only 2 teams were playoffs team by then: NYR haven't won anything yet and Toronto who can't win a round. Only one team was "in the mix" and ironically it had to be BUFFALO, which is supposed to be the poster-child of failed rebuild.

Only NJ and Edmonton really have a sustained period of top five picks based on what we see here. Surprised TO doesn't have more.

 

[red devil]

Only NJ and Edmonton really have a sustained period of top five picks based on what we see here. Surprised TO doesn't have more.

Reilly 5th in 2012 and Marner 4th in 2015, they also drafted Nylander 8th in 2014

 

[Catanddogguitarrr]

All the team issues are mental (outside the actually injured players). What make no sense is that more than half the team is having mental problems at the same time.

Either none of them can handle pressure or there is something rotten around the team.

I think Friolet is not saying all he knows. He is on the beat, he must know few things and he wants to be on the beat next week, next months and next year. If he knows something more 'edgy", do you think he will share it to the public? I doubt it. Humans have careers and when there are careers, there are careerists people.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Reilly 5th in 2012 and Marner 4th in 2015, they also drafted Nylander 8th in 2014

Yeah, that's what I thought. I guess that all happened before the 1st.

 

[rahad]

All the team issues are mental (outside the actually injured players). What make no sense is that more than half the team is having mental problems at the same time.

Either none of them can handle pressure or there is something rotten around the team.

More like half of the team can't shoot. The goals are coming from the same players. We barely got any goals from our defenseman. Only 3 players with 5+ goals.

 

[salbutera]

On the Basu and Godin podcast, Arpon mentioned that Kirby says he needs to stop playing safe. Basu said Dach understands that he needs to go out there and make plays and stop being hesitant. It seems to be in the back of Dach's mind that is causing him not being aggressive as he wants and needs to out on the ice.

Habs should hire Air Jordan & Koby’s former sports psychologist who Oilers had working w Skinner last year..

George Mumford - Performance Whisperer