Official Playoff Push Thread

[Eichel 9]

Well, after tomorrow night, we will officially have completed half of the shortened season. Originally I was on the tank bandwagon, but the players are actually trying now that we got a new coach and I think are chances of a top 5 pick are very slim now, so might as well cheer for them to win and make the playoffs.

Based on solely point % the following teams are ahead of us
1. Boston
2. Montreal
3. Pittsburgh
4. Ottawa
5. Carolina
6. New Jersey
7. Toronto
8. New York Rangers
9. Philadelphia
10. Winnipeg
11. New York Islanders
12. Tampa Bay
13. Buffalo

Looking at those teams, which teams do we have the best chance of hopping ahead of to finish 8th? I think we really need Toronto and Ottawa to fall apart to have a chance, I think the Rangers have underperformed and will secure a playoff spot down the stretch, the Devils have been bad lately but it's still hard to imagine NJ missing the playoffs. Philadelphia started the season terribly but have been better lately, we could finish ahead of them but I'd be surprised. Then you have Tampa that has the offensive ability to get back on track and make a run. We are only technically 3 points out right now, but when you look at the teams ahead of us I think it looks very bleak.

Any statisticians out there want to figure out what our record would have to be around for the remaining 25 games to have a shot at making the playoffs?

Click to read more...

 

[BuiltTagonTough]

The thing is we wouldn't have to outplay the team in 8th.

We would have to outplay 5 of them. I don't see it. Didn't mean to be a killjoy

 

[Duddy]

we go 25-0 for the rest of the season.

 

[vcv]

1. Boston --- No chance
2. Montreal --- No chance
3. Pittsburgh --- No chance
4. Ottawa --- They may fall eventually without some key palyers
5. Carolina --- Should start falling with the huge injury to Cam Ward
6. New Jersey --- Already falling
7. Toronto --- Don't think they'll fall at all
8. New York Rangers --- They'll stay about here
9. Philadelphia --- They'll only get better
10. Winnipeg --- Easy to pass
11. New York Islanders -- Easy to pass
12. Tampa Bay --- Meh
13. Buffalo

I expect Ottawa to drop a little, Carolina a bit more. I think we'd have to take one of their spots.

 

[FearTheBeard]

I can't remember who said this other other day, i don't even know what thread, might have been the tank thread or GBU, but as long as they are playing good exiting hockey like they have over the past few games, especially last night vs the rags, then I won't be as pissed off with a playoff push and coming up short. At least Im excited to watch the games now which I couldn't say a week ago.

 

[Nibbler]

The thing is we wouldn't have to outplay the team in 8th.

We would have to outplay 5 of them. I don't see it. Didn't mean to be a killjoy

Things are pretty tight now though. If they won in regulation last night they would be tied for 9th right now. If they can take advantage of opportunities like that from now on they should jump up the standings pretty quickly.

 

[TehDoak]

Sports Club stats has it at 17-5-3 to secure a playoff spot.

Or a 124 Pt pace over 82 games.

I honestly think we'll go around a .500 clip and finish between 3rd-10th (last year 3 games below .500 was montreal, got them 3rd overall). If the Sabres do do some major housecleaning, we could drop further. Trading Miller, one of Pomniville/Vanek and no re-enforcing the blueline would probably drop us down to top 5 territory almost guaranteed.

 

[Deevo]

Sports Club stats has it at 17-5-3 to secure a playoff spot.

Or a 124 Pt pace over 82 games.

I honestly think we'll go around a .500 clip and finish between 3rd-10th (last year 3 games below .500 was montreal, got them 3rd overall). If the Sabres do do some major housecleaning, we could drop further. Trading Miller, one of Pomniville/Vanek and no re-enforcing the blueline would probably drop us down to top 5 territory almost guaranteed.

Not a promising reality at all.

Stop winnin'?

 

[Go to Sleep]

Islanders, Winnipeg and Tampa Bay, easily. I think Ottawa will fall apart in the next few weeks without Spezza, Karlsson. Boston, Pittsburgh and Montreal no chance.

 

[FearTheBeard]

Sports Club stats has it at 17-5-3 to secure a playoff spot.

Or a 124 Pt pace over 82 games.

I honestly think we'll go around a .500 clip and finish between 3rd-10th (last year 3 games below .500 was montreal, got them 3rd overall). If the Sabres do do some major housecleaning, we could drop further. Trading Miller, one of Pomniville/Vanek and no re-enforcing the blueline would probably drop us down to top 5 territory almost guaranteed.

Someone posted it as 17-9-2 four games ago. We go 3-0-1 and now its 17-5-3
Obviously you guys got your stats from different sites, so hopefully that number is a little inaccurate and we're actually closer than that.

 

[Deevo]

Someone posted it as 17-9-2 four games ago. We go 3-0-1 and now its 17-5-3
Obviously you guys got your stats from different sites, so hopefully that number is a little inaccurate and we're actually closer than that.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Northeast/Buffalo.html

Their calculation system is pretty good. Obviously they can't account for every variable, but they usually paint a pretty good indication of the numbers.

 

[Squantosawuss]

I love the proclamations of "Boston, Montreal and Pittsburgh---no chance" as kind of a generous concession to validate the other proclamations of "Oh, these other teams? THEY could fall apart while the Sabres make their run".

Ahem, I would imagine that ALL of those other teams around Buffalo think that while this motley crew has strung together some wins, they are still quite vulnerable AND are not going to be much of a factor to be worried about as these other teams all make a playoff run.

The Islanders and Winnipeg are the only teams the Sabres really have a chance of passing. I also believe that Washington will eventually pass the Sabres. This team will end the season in either 12th or 13th place.

 

[Royisgone]

It all hinges on what number of points you think you will need this year to end up in 8th place after 48 games.

Right now the 8th place team is Philly and they are on pace for only 48 points.

That number is likely low though, as Philly will probably only improve as will other teams as the season gets longer.

The rate at which the eventual 8th place team scores this year will not be linear. They will likely score at a higher rate as the season progresses.

So the target for the Sabres is moving in a sense. I am guessing it will take something like 54 points to finish in 8th.

We would need 34 points in 25 games.

15-6-4 for example would do that.

Or 16-7-2

 

[vcv]

I love the proclamations of "Boston, Montreal and Pittsburgh---no chance" as kind of a generous concession to validate the other proclamations of "Oh, these other teams? THEY could fall apart while the Sabres make their run".

Ahem, I would imagine that ALL of those other teams around Buffalo think that while this motley crew has strung together some wins, they are still quite vulnerable AND are not going to be much of a factor to be worried about as these other teams all make a playoff run.

The Islanders and Winnipeg are the only teams the Sabres really have a chance of passing. I also believe that Washington will eventually pass the Sabres. This team will end the season in either 12th or 13th place.

Huh?

My opinion is that Carolina and Ottawa could fall because of injuries.

Other teams are traditionally consistent teams or they do not have any injuries to currently worry about.

I don't care what those other teams thing. My opinion is based on who I think they NEED to pass to make the playoffs, not who they WILL. It's predicated on them playing well enough to have a chance.

 

[Go to Sleep]

I love the proclamations of "Boston, Montreal and Pittsburgh---no chance" as kind of a generous concession to validate the other proclamations of "Oh, these other teams? THEY could fall apart while the Sabres make their run".

Ahem, I would imagine that ALL of those other teams around Buffalo think that while this motley crew has strung together some wins, they are still quite vulnerable AND are not going to be much of a factor to be worried about as these other teams all make a playoff run.

The Islanders and Winnipeg are the only teams the Sabres really have a chance of passing. I also believe that Washington will eventually pass the Sabres. This team will end the season in either 12th or 13th place.

What?

 

[zenthusiast]

I could see them getting hot and sneaking in to the 7th-9th zone again.

14-6-5 I think does it over the next 25. 108 point pace.

 

[Royisgone]

I could see them getting hot and sneaking in to the 7th-9th zone again.

14-6-5 I think does it over the next 25. 108 point pace.

So you are saying 53 points buys 8th place this year.

My numbers above presume you need 54. We're close.

Sports Clubs stats says we are both low and that 8th place will require 57 points this year.

I think their 57 is high.

 

[Jame]

I don't think their is a chance in hell that they trap and claw their way to a playoff spot.

I enjoy that they are playing better hockey, but I'll be incredibly disappointed when they finish in "no man's land" (10th-12th)

 

[Royisgone]

I don't think their is a chance in hell that they trap and claw their way to a playoff spot.

I enjoy that they are playing better hockey, but I'll be incredibly disappointed when they finish in "no man's land" (10th-12th)

Sadly, that 10-12th zone is squarely where we are headed in my opinion.

So much for MacKinnon and the like.

 

[MayDayMayDay]

If I'm Coach Ron, message is simple: 2 out of every 3, that's what we need.

 

[Squantosawuss]

If I'm Coach Ron, message is simple: 2 out of every 3, that's what we need.

6 out of 6 gets you the powerball.

 

[slip]

6 out of 6 gets you the powerball.

The only difference is there's actually a chance you win the powerball...

 

[Dubi Doo]

The fact that they only play games within their conference gives them a little better chance. There's going to be a lot of '4 point swing' games. Ottawa, Philly and NYR are within their next 5 games.

 

[misterchainsaw]

So you are saying 53 points buys 8th place this year.

My numbers above presume you need 54. We're close.

Sports Clubs stats says we are both low and that 8th place will require 57 points this year.

I think their 57 is high.

Actually, it only says 57 will all but guarentee 8th place. Honestly, 56 is very close to being a sure thing as well (97.4% - which would be like rolling anything but a 1 on a 40 sided die). You can go all the way down to 53 points and still have better than a 50-50 shot according to their site. 54 points is 3/4's of a chance.

Hell, that site has Buffalo with more of a chance to make the playoffs at 52 points than missing it with 54.

 

[dire wolf]

premature thread is premature.

Let's be reality here. Expect to finish in 9th or 10th place. And be happy about it - that's what it means to be a Buffalo sports fan ; )