Official 2025 NHL DRAFT Thread

[freakydallas13]

Toe, you have to tell us who has the best profiles. Get off your ass. Let's go.

We're all counting on Toe to tell us how much we'll hate whoever the Flyers take at 6OA. Get cracking.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Meh. Just take the best profiles and pray.

Do you approve of the new pope?

 

[scumpup]

They drafted an American Pope????

from CHICAGO?

Blackhawks grrrrrrrrr

 

[scumpup]

For the record, I don't know shit. And I'm sure as hell not going to watch everyone, so there's no point in making a list. I also won't be in here saying I told you so. I might develop a favorite guy whose career I follow, but that's a different topic.

I have no idea why you would imply malice from any of the recent discussion unless there's some kind of horrible post I can't see. It is in human nature to be more likely to forget the times we were wrong. There is definitely something to that, but the way to bring it up isn't to shit on the rug and scream for everyone else clean it up. Make a list yourself before demanding it from others. But do give them time. The draft is well over a month away.

What I personally have been complaining about for the last year is exactly what FLYguy said -- no one knows what the draft is going look like a year in advance. The Flyers' actions say they think they can. I'm sure you can go back to the beginning of this thread and find some very smart people who were more excited then than now. Sometimes guys disappoint. That's just how it works. I'm going to pick Appleyard here because I think he has a proper, measured take on the nuts and bolts of how evaluations evolve over time and will take it as I'm intending it, with zero malice whatsoever.

That was 7/1/24. His opinions on those players have now changed. They're going to change significantly every single year. It's not his fault that Ryabkin had a complete meltdown. His choices now are to amend that opinion or look like a complete idiot and argue against what he now thinks in a desperate attempt to save face. I would submit that he's taken the reasonable road here.

*Edit* I felt bad, so I included a terrible take from me. It's football, because that's mostly what I care about these days.



I was right on Hamilton being the next great Safety and yet I was still so hilariously wrong that this fits snugly as a complete embarrassment. This is the fun to me. No one is actually good at projecting draftable players. The hill is unclimbable. Most people who spend free time doing this and not just regurgitating opinions realize the limitations.

P.S. He's now an Eagle with zero guarantees on his contract. I believe in Vic.

I think to be fair, the NHL draft historically is such a crapshoot that inevitably we'll average out to a reasonable number of Stars and ~50 NHL players (3+ seasons of play). All of these players having meltdowns just shows to me that the talent is still there it's just really really hard to judge who will produce and who will not. Read all the scouting reports on various websites over time and notice how volatile all the previously thought "top talent" was. There IS good talent in this draft. and it WILL be available to the Flyers. They just have to get really lucky and not take one of the million Scott Laughtons comparables available (projectable safe flow low ceiling).

Even in our mock draft full of people who likely just go to smahtscounting dot com and copy their list (no shame i do it too), we had Lynden Lakovic go at like 20. Imagine what dinosaur nhl GMs do. This draft will be exciting I truly believe it.

 

[FLYguy3911]

I’ve found the most valuable part of scouting and/or doing an analytical deep dive is identifying the players you DO NOT want to draft. You’ll still get picks wrong because that’s the nature of drafting 17 and 18 year olds, but shrinking the pool can improve your odds.

 

[Gregor Samsa]

This is a draft that really isn’t set in stone at any point. The later half of the 1st round could be all over the place. Whether the Flyers do good or not will be seen years from now but it should be an entertaining draft

 

[BernieParent]

To the surprise of nobody, the big brains at The Athletic have the Flyers picking Martin. "a classic Flyer in the truest sense with real upside and a one-of-one makeup as a competitor". They then pick Malcolm Spence ("another one of the hardest-working players in the draft in Spence, who fits their identity and projects as an up-and-down-the-lineup, honest, pro-style top-nine winger") and Milton Gastrin ("double down, down the middle. Suddenly, their center depth looks a lot rosier with Martin, Luchanko and Gastrin."). To the last point, no, no it doesn't.

Question: which would be more disappointing: drafting Martin or Aitcheson at 6?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I think to be fair, the NHL draft historically is such a crapshoot that inevitably we'll average out to a reasonable number of Stars and ~50 NHL players (3+ seasons of play). All of these players having meltdowns just shows to me that the talent is still there it's just really really hard to judge who will produce and who will not. Read all the scouting reports on various websites over time and notice how volatile all the previously thought "top talent" was. There IS good talent in this draft. and it WILL be available to the Flyers. They just have to get really lucky and not take one of the million Scott Laughtons comparables available (projectable safe flow low ceiling).

Even in our mock draft full of people who likely just go to smahtscounting dot com and copy their list (no shame i do it too), we had Lynden Lakovic go at like 20. Imagine what dinosaur nhl GMs do. This draft will be exciting I truly believe it.

When we talk about the strength of a draft class, it usually means how good it is at the top compared to most years. It sounds like consensus has this with somewhere between 4 and 6 players with ~80th percentile 1st line/pair potential.

That is low, but other guys are going to hit. Like FLYguy said immediately below you, the key is to identify the risks not to take at their expected slots. That does mean the discussions skew negative, but it in no way equates to the draft not having talent. Forget 6. There will be very good players available after R1 in every draft until the end of time. If you take enough reasonable swings, you’re going to have some hits.

 

[trostol]

in the end, it doesn't matter who is picked because why?.... Flyers development

 

[snoop88]

Does some kind of package of 6 and the Oilers or Avs pick move you up a spot or two if there is something you fall in love with available at 3, 4, or 5?

Genuinelly not sure what the pick value is.

 

[StoneColdAnimal]

To the surprise of nobody, the big brains at The Athletic have the Flyers picking Martin. "a classic Flyer in the truest sense with real upside and a one-of-one makeup as a competitor". They then pick Malcolm Spence ("another one of the hardest-working players in the draft in Spence, who fits their identity and projects as an up-and-down-the-lineup, honest, pro-style top-nine winger") and Milton Gastrin ("double down, down the middle. Suddenly, their center depth looks a lot rosier with Martin, Luchanko and Gastrin."). To the last point, no, no it doesn't.

Question: which would be more disappointing: drafting Martin or Aitcheson at 6?

Maybe it’s just me, but after 50 years without a Cup, you’d think we’d finally pivot away from the “classic Flyers” mold and just draft the most talented players available. We haven’t even picked Martin yet and I’m already pissed. I saw what Magua posted and didn’t need more than two minutes—that skating in the first round? If that’s the direction we go, we’re truly lost.

 

[BigToe]

We're all counting on Toe to tell us how much we'll hate whoever the Flyers take at 6OA. Get cracking.

If it isn't Hagens or Martone I won't really care.

 

[BernieParent]

Maybe it’s just me, but after 50 years without a Cup, you’d think we’d finally pivot away from the “classic Flyers” mold and just draft the most talented players available. We haven’t even picked Martin yet and I’m already pissed. I saw what Magua posted and didn’t need more than two minutes—that skating in the first round? If that’s the direction we go, we’re truly lost.

Agreed, and this is why I have posted a few times that it is obvious mock drafter see a "Free Parking" space with Flyers picks for a less talented try-hard, particularly if he is physical. There's a smidgen of a silver lining -- if you squint -- that speed and hockey IQ have been more at the forefront than size ... at least in the 1st round.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Does some kind of package of 6 and the Oilers or Avs pick move you up a spot or two if there is something you fall in love with available at 3, 4, or 5?

Genuinelly not sure what the pick value is.

There really is no pick value since those picks don’t get traded. At least not in 17 years I think it is.

 

[BernieParent]

in the end, it doesn't matter who is picked because why?.... Flyers development

In this accurate light, it might be a better thing to draft a player whose biggest weakness is skating, which is partly a mechanical and teachable thing. Leave the prospect where he is for as long as possible and send a skating coach to room with him.

 

[scumpup]

When we talk about the strength of a draft class, it usually means how good it is at the top compared to most years. It sounds like consensus has this with somewhere between 4 and 6 players with ~80th percentile 1st line/pair potential.

That is low, but other guys are going to hit. Like FLYguy said immediately below you, the key is to identify the risks not to take at their expected slots. That does mean the discussions skew negative, but it in no way equates to the draft not having talent. Forget 6. There will be very good players available after R1 in every draft until the end of time. If you take enough reasonable swings, you’re going to have some hits.

yea sorry if i come off as like thinking people arent agreeing or whatever I just generally write things broadly in these sorts of discussions and move on.

I think draft class will be kinda like 2013 where a lot of the best players from that class are later picks.

 

[Larry44]

Speaking of which, "Kelowna Rockets" is a kick-ass name - they deserve better than the shit thing someone puked out for their blouses. Don't get me wrong - they'll never be the Kamloops Blazers - but they deserve better than this f***ing thing:

EDIT: Maybe it's not that bad, but they aren't the f***ing Dragons. Come on, Kelowna - pull your head out.

In fairness to the Rockets, the monster is a reference to the legendary Ogopogo, the Loch Ness monster of
Okanagan lake near Kelowna.

Ogopogo - Wikipedia

How to Uncover the True Spirit of Ogopogo

It's like a Scottish team paying tribute to Nessie... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loch_Ness_F.C.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Speaking of which, "Kelowna Rockets" is a kick-ass name - they deserve better than the shit thing someone puked out for their blouses. Don't get me wrong - they'll never be the Kamloops Blazers - but they deserve better than this f***ing thing:

EDIT: Maybe it's not that bad, but they aren't the f***ing Dragons. Come on, Kelowna - pull your head out.

thats Ogopogo...

 

[Magua]

I obviously do not understand the conversation because this was 27 minutes of an autoscroller given sentience. When he tries to kick up into 2nd gear, he has the posture and cadence of an old man climbing stairs. I can’t make any grand statements about the 20s based on one game, but there’s no way this is the 6th best bet in any class on draft day.

Is there anyone here who likes Martin and watched this? I know it’s a nebulous term, but what I specifically want to know is what you think about his vision in this game. I keep seeing that praised as a strength. I’m guessing this is an issue where the term means something different to me than it does others, but I’d like some confirmation. Or maybe I just picked the wrong game.

I watched parts of two other games. You saw everything you needed to see. He plays half the game each night too. It’s very freeing to dive into prospects late with a don’t give a shit attitude.

I saw him attempt a ton of short saucer passes under pressure. But they weren’t even good passes. It was just desperately flinging it into traffic. His hands drive me more nuts than his feet. He doesn’t have skills to do more than chip and shoot in the NHL. I’ll be absolutely floored if this guy is more than a 4th liner. As a top 10 pick, I’ve never scouted anyone with so little substance and vaguely plausible upside.

I’ve found the most valuable part of scouting and/or doing an analytical deep dive is identifying the players you DO NOT want to draft. You’ll still get picks wrong because that’s the nature of drafting 17 and 18 year olds, but shrinking the pool can improve your odds.

I was thinking last night: how many times have I just humiliated myself being wrong on a player who ended up good? Not exceeding expectations a bit because that happens even with favorites. I mean out and out wrong.

I’m wrong plenty on guys underperforming. Even if I like my batting average. But I have to rack my brain to think of the opposite. Tippett? And what I hated is still there. I truly can’t think of anyone else. Actually, I’d add Bouchard. He was a very weird draft case study, but I was skeptical.

 

[MrGuyPerson]

Can anyone tell me why Frondell is projected as a center? He didn’t play any center in the Allsvenskan games I saw. He looks like a wing. If that’s something that sways people, I’m not even sure it’s a thing.

I am a Frondell fan though. I think he’d be a nice sorta Boldy type, even if he doesn’t reach that ceiling. Strong pre-shot movement + finishing (care a lot more about former), cromulent passer, forechecking, skating doesn’t bug me honestly just needs garden variety power skating work.

Don’t think he’s a game changer, but we’re past that stage at 6th overall in this wretched class. I don’t know what the heck happened at the u18s, even if I don’t care, because I didn’t watch.

He didn't take faceoffs often, but after puck drop he ended up shifting into a center's role fairly frequently. I project him as a center as well.

I also am not sure he is a game changer, but to me his style of play fits very well with the flyers roster currently. Personally I project Frondell's game as potentially very complimentary to Michkov's. Highish IQ(will pass to and get open to receive a pass from Michkov), cannon post up shot(It is easy to imagine a lot of future goals with this one because Michkov seems to find open players a lot, if Frondell is that open player, well I imagine the puck will go in rather frequently), strong defensive play(definitely a quality I want to pair with Michkov), hitting(not really a pairing thing, but I think being willing to hit is a plus)

 

[renberg]

To the surprise of nobody, the big brains at The Athletic have the Flyers picking Martin. "a classic Flyer in the truest sense with real upside and a one-of-one makeup as a competitor". They then pick Malcolm Spence ("another one of the hardest-working players in the draft in Spence, who fits their identity and projects as an up-and-down-the-lineup, honest, pro-style top-nine winger") and Milton Gastrin ("double down, down the middle. Suddenly, their center depth looks a lot rosier with Martin, Luchanko and Gastrin."). To the last point, no, no it doesn't.

Question: which would be more disappointing: drafting Martin or Aitcheson at 6?

Most of the mocks that I’ve seen over the last few days have the Flyers taking Frondell; some say Desnoyers. This prototype Flyer stuff is junk put out by ignorant media who stereotype all teams. My call is that if the Flyers take Martin or Aitcheson at six, they’re just stupid.

 

[Appleyard]

Looks at 8 draft eligible guys, who fell, who rose, and two guys who probably were going undrafted and now might get picked.

U18 Worlds wrap-up: Which risers and fallers could be targets for the Philadelphia Flyers? - PHLY Sports

The U18 World Juniors are over. A Canada team that (on paper) were a slight cut below the usual standard won, romping the favored Swedes in the final by a 7-0

allphly.com

 

[Magua]

He didn't take faceoffs often, but after puck drop he ended up shifting into a center's role fairly frequently. I project him as a center as well.

I also am not sure he is a game changer, but to me his style of play fits very well with the flyers roster currently. Personally I project Frondell's game as potentially very complimentary to Michkov's. Highish IQ(will pass to and get open to receive a pass from Michkov), cannon post up shot(It is easy to imagine a lot of future goals with this one because Michkov seems to find open players a lot, if Frondell is that open player, well I imagine the puck will go in rather frequently), strong defensive play(definitely a quality I want to pair with Michkov), hitting(not really a pairing thing, but I think being willing to hit is a plus)

Well, he was playing wing after the face off too in the games I saw. I remember Boldy switched to center at BC. It was a mess. Went back to wing, and the rest is history.

Frondell’s forechecking, off-puck movement, quick decisions on the walls, N-S game are his standout traits to me. He seems like a functional flow passer, but it’s not standout. Maybe he can play center, but my gut tells me he’s an NHL wing. At the least, I’m not assigning any more draft value to him as a center. I thought Leo Carlsson was an easy wing to center idea, for comparison.

I’m not really worried about finding fit picks for Michkov. Frondell looks like a glue guy that fits with anyone. The best fit for Michkov is more top end talent. I’ll probably have Frondell at the top of my list for 6th overall, even if I don’t think he’s a top end talent because that’s this class.

 

[Appleyard]

For the record, I don't know shit. And I'm sure as hell not going to watch everyone, so there's no point in making a list. I also won't be in here saying I told you so. I might develop a favorite guy whose career I follow, but that's a different topic.

I have no idea why you would imply malice from any of the recent discussion unless there's some kind of horrible post I can't see. It is in human nature to be more likely to forget the times we were wrong. There is definitely something to that, but the way to bring it up isn't to shit on the rug and scream for everyone else clean it up. Make a list yourself before demanding it from others. But do give them time. The draft is well over a month away.

What I personally have been complaining about for the last year is exactly what FLYguy said -- no one knows what the draft is going look like a year in advance. The Flyers' actions say they think they can. I'm sure you can go back to the beginning of this thread and find some very smart people who were more excited then than now. Sometimes guys disappoint. That's just how it works. I'm going to pick Appleyard here because I think he has a proper, measured take on the nuts and bolts of how evaluations evolve over time and will take it as I'm intending it, with zero malice whatsoever.

That was 7/1/24. His opinions on those players have now changed. They're going to change significantly every single year. It's not his fault that Ryabkin had a complete meltdown. His choices now are to amend that opinion or look like a complete idiot and argue against what he now thinks in a desperate attempt to save face. I would submit that he's taken the reasonable road here.

*Edit* I felt bad, so I included a terrible take from me. It's football, because that's mostly what I care about these days.



I was right on Hamilton being the next great Safety and yet I was still so hilariously wrong that this fits snugly as a complete embarrassment. This is the fun to me. No one is actually good at projecting draftable players. The hill is unclimbable. Most people who spend free time doing this and not just regurgitating opinions realize the limitations.

P.S. He's now an Eagle with zero guarantees on his contract. I believe in Vic.

Yep. I totally agree!

Of those 18 guys... maybe 13 still go 1st round or at least top 35-40.

Hagens went from looking like a total, 100%, cant miss star player to "probably a good 1st liner, maybe a star"
But Ryabkin was on star track from age 13-17... now? He is a question mark.
McQueen, Kevan, Gavin, Moore, Eriksen, Benak, Lewandowski and Fondrk have basically stagnated totally or even regressed.
Lewandowski, Ihs-Wozniak are now full-time wingers.

Which is why most NHL teams want the draft to go back to 19-20... because it would be more predictable.

Though it is also a draft year where far more guys than usual stagnated (you expect around 25% of guys, this draft it is probably 40% with less stepping up to fill void). Heck, at 16 Filip Ekberg looked like a sure-fire top 5 pick!

And C is still this drafts strongest position... and ~13 "C's" look like will go in first, which is a lot.
But instead of maybe ~7 guys a year ago who looked like they had a legit shot at being a 75+ point C... now it is maybe 3. And instead of ~18 guys who looked like they had a legit shot at being a ~50+ point 2C... now it is maybe 10 max.

 

[scumpup]

Most of the mocks that I’ve seen over the last few days have the Flyers taking Frondell; some say Desnoyers. This prototype Flyer stuff is junk put out by ignorant media who stereotype all teams. My call is that if the Flyers take Martin or Aitcheson at six, they’re just stupid.

some people dont even have Aitcheson on their draft board thats how funny the idea of taking him is.