Official 2025 NHL DRAFT Thread

[Rebels57]

Took some valuable work time this morning to run some historical Q numbers to see where Desnoyers stacks up to notable NHL forwards and his two first round possibilities from the Q.

Draft Year:

View attachment 1017066

Draft Year-1:

View attachment 1017068

He's clearly a lesser prospect than Couturier since that is somebody everybody has a reference point for. His counting stats look a little less impressive when accounting for team strength. I don't even think that's the most telling thing though. These stats don't account for league quality and you can see from some of the names, the Q just does not produce impact players anymore. Lafreniere is the clear #2 behind Crosby for post-2000 Q players and one of the most accomplished Junior players in recent memory and he's a career ~40 point player at the NHL level! Yeah there's some nice middle 6ers in there but where are the stars in the last decade?

It would be really hard for me to stamp my name to someone from this version of the Q without them being a massive statistical outlier.

Thank you for this. Give me whoever is left between Hagens, Martone, and Frondell.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

There’s a very significant chance Desnoyers goes top 4 according to every draft analyst with NHL connections. If you’re ranking him that high one would presume they hold him in the same regard as I do.

People need to stop acting like it’s September where they just presume someone like Hagens is automatically going top 4 because of what he did last year.

That is putting words in my mouth and shows a complete misunderstanding of the discussion and frankly the reality of prospecting.

There is no way you can massage your way into Desnoyers has Toews or Kopitar potential as being reasonable. That's a top 150ish player ever. He would be going 1 or 2 if there just so happens to be another one in the same draft unless there were extenuating circumstances.

Or to put it another way, the chasm between Toews/Kopitar potential and going 4th in this draft could be measured in light years. It's nuttier than anything deady ever said. If you think he's the 3rd or 4th best guy in this draft, great. Doesn't matter if I agree. If you want to say crazy things like where we started, someone's probably going to laugh. We all get carried away sometimes.

 

[iceman42]

He's 6'6. And Chinese! @Chinatown88

Haoxi Wang? Tankathon has mock him to us at 45.

 

[DAVIDE1333]

Haoxi Wang? Tankathon has mock him to us at 45.

I think I've posted it before when his name was brought up, but who wouldn't want a Flyer's Wang jersey?

 

[iceman42]

I think I've posted it before when his name was brought up, but who wouldn't want a Flyer's Wang jersey?

I could get rid of my custom Flyers jersey .. please let him get #69

 

[Appleyard]

This is the first day I have looked into this draft with even an inch of depth.

There’s a Defenseman with TWO Points in 32 OHL Games in McKenzie’s Top 32?! I have got to see what this is about because it can’t possibly be reasonable.

Yeh...

6'6 and skates beautifully.

But as I outlined to some people in the game when they raved about him...

Finn Sonnekalb... 6'6, probably going to be the fastest skater on earth... would make Wang look average, is also draft eligible. And he would probably have around as many points in OHL. (And he has likely never picked up a hockey stick aha)

 

[bauer]

someone brought it up yesterday, the reaction I had to the Eagles passing on Jefferson to take Reagor was the same reaction I had to the Flyers passing on Buium and taking Jett. I dont want a repeat of that.

They seriously need to hit on this pick. Draft the BPA with the highest upside. Period. Taking Desnoyers over Hagens or Martone could set this team back another 5 years.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Took some valuable work time this morning to run some historical Q numbers to see where Desnoyers stacks up to notable NHL forwards and his two first round possibilities from the Q.

Draft Year:

View attachment 1017066

Draft Year-1:

View attachment 1017068

He's clearly a lesser prospect than Couturier since that is somebody everybody has a reference point for. His counting stats look a little less impressive when accounting for team strength. I don't even think that's the most telling thing though. These stats don't account for league quality and you can see from some of the names, the Q just does not produce impact players anymore. Lafreniere is the clear #2 behind Crosby for post-2000 Q players and one of the most accomplished Junior players in recent memory and he's a career ~40 point player at the NHL level! Yeah there's some nice middle 6ers in there but where are the stars in the last decade?

It would be really hard for me to stamp my name to someone from this version of the Q without them being a massive statistical outlier.

Should add one interesting thing I noticed is Desnoyers only had 19 PP points this year. I know we place a premium on ES production, and his is certainly good, but you want guys that have some gravity on the PP if you're drafting this high. Moncton had a middle of the road PP as the "best" CHL team. I'm open to criticizing the staff, but Star players/prospects can swing those units, especially at that level.

TK is someone that also had relatively low PP production in the CHL and it turns out he's not a particularly effective PP guy at the NHL level outside of one season.

 

[FlyerNutter]

Don’t really have time/interest to watch these kids but think Hagens is my guy is if he is there.

Is Martone a guy that is miles above Hagens in terms of projection? Not really from what I’ve read. I tend to think these Tkachuk comparisons are just the flavour of the day. So in that case you really are looking a little bit at need, or more specifically the value of a certain position.

What I think is hardest to find, is something they lost with Jake/Giroux. A plus performer in transition, and creativity. That’s what you need to harvest from a high end forward pick imo.

If Frondell is better at that, or truly projects better than Hagens that would be my #1 but don’t see that.

If Desnoyers is just a Couturier lite stay the hell away from that vanilla BS.

 

[Danko]

I feel like last draft thats all the broadcasters said was everyone was a tkachuk type

 

[FLYguy3911]

I feel like last draft thats all the broadcasters said was everyone was a tkachuk type

Whoever stands out in the most recent playoffs is who everyone gets compared to in that draft. Never forget when Pierre dubbed Provorov as a “Mini Victor Hedman”.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Yeh...

6'6 and skates beautifully.

But as I outlined to some people in the game when they raved about him...

Finn Sonnekalb... 6'6, probably going to be the fastest skater on earth... would make Wang look average, is also draft eligible. And he would probably have around as many points in OHL. (And he has likely never picked up a hockey stick aha)

I was not expecting him to be that good of a skater. I tend to hate that term because it just means so many things to so many people, but this is basically everything. Even his hips flip well.

There's just no offense there at the OHL level from my extremely limited experience. I read the blurb at Smaht that said he got more comfortable as the year went on, so maybe it got better. I just don't know how it could have possibly gotten enough better for me to think it makes sense to spend a 1.

But I'm now convinced he's on the table with one of their later 1sts. What he can't do feels like something they think they can develop. I don't agree that anyone can project who will grow like that, but that's a different discussion.

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

I’m sorry but how does someone get Chick fil A and NOT order a spicy chicken sandwich????????

Also what sauces? If you answer wrong I’ll find you.

Used to be a spicy only guy, but I theorize the classics are superior.

 

[TheKingPin]

I think the few that would like a player like Desnoyers over some of the others are ok with a limited ceiling of a low end 1C. The other options we will have a higher ceiling. This team has one player that is top line when we project out a few years so they need to be swinging for the fences on almost all their picks. We have a ton of middle 6 and middle pair options. No need to aim for those.

 

[TheKingPin]

That is putting words in my mouth and shows a complete misunderstanding of the discussion and frankly the reality of prospecting.

There is no way you can massage your way into Desnoyers has Toews or Kopitar potential as being reasonable. That's a top 150ish player ever. He would be going 1 or 2 if there just so happens to be another one in the same draft unless there were extenuating circumstances.

Or to put it another way, the chasm between Toews/Kopitar potential and going 4th in this draft could be measured in light years. It's nuttier than anything deady ever said. If you think he's the 3rd or 4th best guy in this draft, great. Doesn't matter if I agree. If you want to say crazy things like where we started, someone's probably going to laugh. We all get carried away sometimes.

I think his point is that the rankings could be wrong, like they are every year. Kopitar went 11, turns out he should have gone 2. Of course, once you go that route then everything goes out the window

 

[Castle8130]

The Desnoyers vs Hagens conversation feels a lot like the Tkachuk vs Zadina debate except they are centers this time. Tkachuk was a highly responsible player that had a ton of projectable qualities, but lacked in the skill department and had a high floor/ low ceiling. Zadina was quite the opposite and everyone wanted him at the time.

I like what Desnoyers brings to the table more than what ive seen from Hagens. Hagens has marginally improved this season. Ya’ll should check out Grant Mckeggs video of Desnoyers on youtube. Its very informative and accurate

 

[JojoTheWhale]

@LegionOfDoom91 Weeks short of the lottery and we've already McCagged.

 

[Castle8130]

@LegionOfDoom91 Weeks short of the lottery and we've already McCagged.

Im telling you that there was a good maybe 10-20% of people on this site that were on the side of Tkachuk over Zadina and the argument was that Tkachuk didn’t have enough skill/creativity. This is a similar argument agains Desnoyers.

Desnoyers profile:

Pros
- Has looked great at Center in international tournaments
- Has Elite two-way ability
- The most productive player by a SIGNIFICANT margin on the best team
- The BEST two-way ability on the best team
- Has absolutely torn it up in the QMJHL playoffs against tough competition (17 points in 8 games)
- Leads his team in playoff scoring by a significant margin
- Has crushed it at the face-off circle all year
- 6’2” 173 lbs —> this is great because he is tall and has a ton of room to grow
- Great at using his body for physicality
- Loved by his teammates and coaches
- Was on a line with Martone and Misa during the CHL vs USHL game and looked like he was the best of the 3

Cons
- Not very creative or flashy
- His shot could be better

 

[Magua]

It’s like I’m in an NHL scouting meeting.

Read that Desnoyers is dominating in the playoffs. Does that change things for his detractors?

Went through some box scores and it seems to be the case.

Yeah, 2 of the games I watched were playoff games. Probably had 3 points in each. They were not dominating performances. He’s above average tools, average creativity, with a lot of structure. That’s his game. He has a very high floor. It’s hard to not see a 45-55 point center. Maybe he gets a linemate boost. That’s valuable! That cannot be the 4th-5th overall pick for a team with putrid organizational skill level. He’s a very easy scout; these guys you watch 1 game, you’ve seen 10 games because he’s consistent. That’s good and bad.

We do this every single year where floor-ish players’ upsides get drastically oversold to justify picks or work backwards from consensus. How many times did we have to get beat over the head with York’s record points and dynamism? Reputation on the line: Desnoyers’ 99th percentile ceiling is not a 1C.

I know we place a premium on ES production, and his is certainly good, but you want guys that have some gravity on the PP if you're drafting this high. Moncton had a middle of the road PP as the "best" CHL team.

He played on the left wall every game as a lefty, and just flung it around or did the wheel up high for a wrister. Flyers special. It was honestly noticeable how bland he was on the PP. Some shifty guys make that no one timer work. Compare that to O’Brien with 50 PP points (!!!), who absolutely excels there. And vexes me at 5v5. I’m terribly vexed.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Im telling you that there was a good maybe 10-20% of people on this site that were on the side of Tkachuk over Zadina and the argument was that Tkachuk didn’t have enough skill/creativity. This is a similar argument agains Desnoyers.

Desnoyers profile:

Pros
- Has looked great at Center in international tournaments
- Has Elite two-way ability
- The most productive player by a SIGNIFICANT margin on the best team
- The BEST two-way ability on the best team
- Has absolutely torn it up in the QMJHL playoffs against tough competition (17 points in 8 games)
- Leads his team in playoff scoring by a significant margin
- Has crushed it at the face-off circle all year
- 6’2” 173 lbs —> this is great because he is tall and has a ton of room to grow
- Great at using his body for physicality
- Loved by his teammates and coaches
- Was on a line with Martone and Misa during the CHL vs USHL game and looked like he was the best of the 3

Cons
- Not very creative or flashy
- His shot could be better

I want to be clear that I'm not making fun of your opinion. If you think he's better, great! Boards assembled honestly are supposed to be different.

McCagg is not a serious source by my personal standards. I'd rather hear what you have to say. I am absolutely mocking him in every possible way.

 

[Nabrules]

That is putting words in my mouth and shows a complete misunderstanding of the discussion and frankly the reality of prospecting.

There is no way you can massage your way into Desnoyers has Toews or Kopitar potential as being reasonable. That's a top 150ish player ever. He would be going 1 or 2 if there just so happens to be another one in the same draft unless there were extenuating circumstances.

Or to put it another way, the chasm between Toews/Kopitar potential and going 4th in this draft could be measured in light years. It's nuttier than anything deady ever said. If you think he's the 3rd or 4th best guy in this draft, great. Doesn't matter if I agree. If you want to say crazy things like where we started, someone's probably going to laugh. We all get carried away sometimes.

Toews and Kopitar during their best years were 70 point centres who were yearly contenders for the selke because they of how complete their games were.

I factor in here that they were getting 70ish points during a lower scoring time period league wide but translating that to todays NHL, I think Desnoyers has the potential to be a 80 point guy who is a yearly contender for the Selke and one of the leagues best all around forwards, much like Toews and Kopitar were during their era.

Now does that translate to him winning multiple championships like those guys, which propelled them to being viewed as top 150 players all time, idk. All I know is from my perspective he can this decades next great two way Cs.

 

[TheKingPin]

I guess if Couts started out faster and continued a higher pace longer, I’d take that over a lot of option. Those players keep points off the board as much as they score so they add a lot. We have a lot of floor players though. You see what Michkov brings and we need more of that. If we end up with a lot of high end wings then so be it.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Toews and Kopitar during their best years were 70 point centres who were yearly contenders for the selke because they of how complete their games were.

I factor in here that they were getting 70ish points during a lower scoring time period league wide but translating that to todays NHL, I think Desnoyers has the potential to be a 80 point guy who is a yearly contender for the Selke and one of the leagues best all around forwards, much like Toews and Kopitar were during their era.

Now does that translate to him winning multiple championships like those guys, which propelled them to being viewed as top 150 players all time, idk. All I know is from my perspective he can this decades next great two way Cs.

Both of those guys were roughly 1 PPG during their scoring peaks in that lower era.

If you really believe all of that, you should have him 1OA and it shouldn’t be close. Bedard, Michkov, Celebrini, etc are less than 50/50 to have Kopitar’s regular season career.

 

[Castle8130]

I want to be clear that I'm not making fun of your opinion. If you think he's better, great! Boards assembled honestly are supposed to be different.

McCagg is not a serious source by my personal standards. I'd rather hear what you have to say. I am absolutely mocking him in every possible way.

I'm not even a fan of the Flyers. Just saw you guys were picking high and talking about Desnoyers. I'm a Hawks fan and we've been told the Hawks are looking at Misa, Frondell, and Desnoyers for our pick. Hagens and Martone look unlikely at the moment.

As regards to Mckegg, he gets into a lot of shenanigans outside of prospect work, but his analysis is great and informative. He talks to current NHL scouts and has as close to insider scout informationa s you can get

 

[FLYguy3911]

I'd take McKegg over @BigToe but that's where I draw the line.