Official 2025 NHL DRAFT Thread

[Fly0rDie]

You know how this plays out, right? Multiple Flyers players will have hat tricks on Thursday and Ersson or Kolosov or Fedotov will post a shutout. The culture demands it.

Garnet Hathaway hat trick incoming

 

[BiggE]

Flyers new 1C for Thursday, Nick Seeler
Starting goalie: Abols
Top D pair: Kolosov/ Nic D

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Garnet Hathaway hat trick incoming

shittruck is scoring first

 

[flyersnorth]

Crazy that in hockey, everyone will play the last game of the season with 3 possible draft placings in the balance.

Yet the NBA starts sitting guys 40 games in.

Does that really happen in the NBA? Sounds like a deeply flawed model.

Can you imagine the Flyers sitting TK, Sanheim, Michkov at the halfway point purely to lose games?

That's gross sportsmanship.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Does that really happen in the NBA? Sounds like a deeply flawed model.

Can you imagine the Flyers sitting TK, Sanheim, Michkov at the halfway point purely to lose games?

That's gross sportsmanship.

The NBA basically extends injuries rather than inventing them until much later than the post you responded to said. By the time you get to March, all bets are off for 5 or 6 teams.

The thing is, the league has a history of needing a top 5 player in the world to have any meaningful chance of winning a title and the absolute top tier prospects are largely known in not just league but fan circles 3 years before they hit the draft.

That's 15 year olds we're talking about because they're already completely different animals. That level of NBA prospects are at times on national TV before their draft years. To be clear, I don't mean College. It's high school. It's overseas. It's special exhibition games and tournaments. And outside of a few franchises like the Lakers and Knicks, you will NEVER get one via free agency or trade. So the other teams are left with maximizing lottery odds when they're bad enough.

It's not a coincidence that the NBA has looked into completely reorganizing how the draft works in ways like Gold Drafting or even a flat out rotation system where everyone picks in each 1-30 slot every 30 years You just can't compare it to the other sports.

 

[flyersnorth]

The NBA basically extends injuries rather than inventing them until much later than the post you responded to said. By the time you get to March, all bets are off for 5 or 6 teams.

The thing is, the league has a history of needing a top 5 player in the world to have any meaningful chance of winning a title and the absolute top tier prospects are largely known in not just league but fan circles 3 years before they hit the draft.

That's 15 year olds we're talking about because they're already completely different animals. That level of NBA prospects are at times on national TV before their draft years. To be clear, I don't mean College. It's high school. It's overseas. It's special exhibition games and tournaments. And outside of a few franchises like the Lakers and Knicks, you will NEVER get one via free agency or trade. So the other teams are left with maximizing lottery odds when they're bad enough.

It's not a coincidence that the NBA has looked into completely reorganizing how the draft works in ways like Gold Drafting or even a flat out rotation system where everyone picks in each 1-30 slot every 30 years You just can't compare it to the other sports.

Thank you for the response. I seem to remember reading or hearing somewhere that it's basically always the same handful of teams that have a legitimate shot in the NBA and that's because of the outsized impact of star players. Which is surprising given that basketball has the 2nd highest amount of "randomness" among professional sports (hockey is 1st).

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Thank you for the response. I seem to remember reading or hearing somewhere that it's basically always the same handful of teams that have a legitimate shot in the NBA and that's because of the outsized impact of star players. Which is surprising given that basketball has the 2nd highest amount of "randomness" among professional sports (hockey is 1st).

It actually has the least randomness of outcomes by far. There’s a famous whitepaper by Michael Lopez (and a couple others) who now runs NFL league data/analytics that deals with this exact topic.

https://ecommons.luc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1025&context=math_facpubs

I’ll give you the conclusion because I’m sure you don’t want to dig through all of that. The “better” team wins a 7 game playoff series about 80% of the time in the NBA. That’s not just the elite teams. That’s pure favorite vs underdog.

In order to get to that same 80% number, teams would have to play:

Best of 11 in the NFL
Best of 51 in the NHL
Best of 75 in MLB

The NBA is a different beast entirely.

 

[Curufinwe]

So a regulation loss has them finish 4th worst?

 

[Rebels57]

So a regulation loss has them finish 4th worst?

Yup..no matter what else happens.

 

[iceman42]

Yup..no matter what else happens.

So were going to win

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

So were going to win

Guaranteed. And if I had to bet they will be down 5-0 heading in to the final ten minutes of regulation and score six goals in the final ten minutes and celebrate like they won the Cup, only to wind up picking 9th or whatever the worst case scenario is

 

[flyersnorth]

It actually has the least randomness of outcomes by far. There’s a famous whitepaper by Michael Lopez (and a couple others) who now runs NFL league data/analytics that deals with this exact topic.

https://ecommons.luc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1025&context=math_facpubs

I’ll give you the conclusion because I’m sure you don’t want to dig through all of that. The “better” team wins a 7 game playoff series about 80% of the time in the NBA. That’s not just the elite teams. That’s pure favorite vs underdog.

In order to get to that same 80% number, teams would have to play:

Best of 11 in the NFL
Best of 51 in the NHL
Best of 75 in MLB

The NBA is a different beast entirely.

My bad - I went back and looked at the studies I had read, and hockey and baseball are at the top of the "randomness" scale, while basketball and football are at the bottom. The study you linked has the same observation.

It also seems like the NFL and NBA are more susceptible to talent dilution. If you cut the league in half, the results would most likely be less lopsided because of talent accumulation across the remaining teams.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Guaranteed. And if I had to bet they will be down 5-0 heading in to the final ten minutes of regulation and score six goals in the final ten minutes and celebrate like they won the Cup, only to wind up picking 9th or whatever the worst case scenario is

then trade back to 12th and get a late 3rd as a reward...

#culture

 

[Tarpongg]

then trade back to 12th and get a late 3rd as a reward...

#culture

Dr. Flahr is ready to operate!

 

[ponder719]

Guaranteed. And if I had to bet they will be down 5-0 heading in to the final ten minutes of regulation and score six goals in the final ten minutes and celebrate like they won the Cup, only to wind up picking 9th or whatever the worst case scenario is

Worst case scenario is 7th before the lotto, so yeah, 9th pick, after Pittsburgh and the Rangers win the lotto.

 

[Rebels57]

Kraken fans had to be nervous last night with that 6-5 Loss to LA after being down 6-2.

The Flyers and Sabres, the two teams in the NHL mired in mediocrity the longest, have accumulated the most points of all the bottom 10 teams over the last 10 games. Both are 5-4-1. On Thursday we find out what happens when an Unstoppable Force of Stupidity meets and Immovable Object of Incompetence.

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

A useful organization would use the last game of a dogshit season as a reason to get young kids into games and get tired vets into the offseason without any more damage.

We might see Couts play 40 minutes.

 

[Rebels57]

A useful organization would use the last game of a dogshit season as a reason to get young kids into games and get tired vets into the offseason without any more damage.

We might see Couts play 40 minutes.

Young kids playing for a job is dangerous in a must-lose game. I want the run-down vets in there.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Young kids playing for a job is dangerous in a must-lose game. I want the run-down vets in there.

you just willed a shittruck goal into existence btw...

 

[ponder719]

Kraken fans had to be nervous last night with that 6-5 Loss to LA after being down 6-2.

The Flyers and Sabres, the two teams in the NHL mired in mediocrity the longest, have accumulated the most points of all the bottom 10 teams over the last 10 games. Both are 5-4-1. On Thursday we find out what happens when an Unstoppable Force of Stupidity meets and Immovable Object of Incompetence.

Somehow, both teams will come away from this game with three points.

 

[Rebels57]

Somehow, both teams will come away from this game with three points.

3 point game is a lock with these two dumb ass teams.

 

[FLYguy3911]

EP's new rankings

 

[Rebels57]

EP's new rankings

View attachment 1015343

Frondell at 12....wut

 

[iceman42]

A tall/big guy with a back injury at #5 thats insane

 

[Rebels57]

A tall/big guy with a back injury at #5 thats insane

The only team I could see draft him in the Top 10 is the Islanders who hold the 10th pick. Lou still thinks it's 1998 and his size will be very appealing for that old fogie.