Official 2025 NHL Draft Thread

[Appleyard]

The little mathematician in the back of my head was telling me this morning to check how things look after last nights result for a pleasant Misa/Hagens shaped surprise... so I did.

Odds will change quickly when you just keep losing... and 5 losses in a row will do great things for your draft odds, especially if a couple of teams behind have good stretches.

They are pacing for 77 points, and 3rd overall will likely be around 71-73 points.

Flyers now "Just" need to go around 5-10-1 (.344) to actually have a decent shot to pick 3rd overall.

And they are 5-10-1 in their last 16 games coincidentally.

If they did that then all of Penguins, Kraken, Predators and Sabres would likely pass them.

Annnnnd then they would probably lose the lottery and pick 4th ahaha.

 

[PDX Flyer]

The little mathematician in the back of my head was telling me this morning to check how things look after last nights result for a pleasant Misa/Hagens shaped surprise... so I did.

Odds will change quickly when you just keep losing... and 5 losses in a row will do great things for your draft odds, especially if a couple of teams behind have good stretches.

They are pacing for 77 points, and 3rd overall will likely be around 71-73 points.

Flyers now "Just" need to go around 5-10-1 (.344) to actually have a decent shot to pick 3rd overall.

And they are 5-10-1 in their last 16 games coincidentally.

If they did that then all of Penguins, Kraken, Predators and Sabres would likely pass them.

Annnnnd then they would probably lose the lottery and pick 4th ahaha.

Just looked at their upcoming games. Great shot at extending the losing streak to ten and completely demoralize the team

 

[BigToe]

The little mathematician in the back of my head was telling me this morning to check how things look after last nights result for a pleasant Misa/Hagens shaped surprise... so I did.

Odds will change quickly when you just keep losing... and 5 losses in a row will do great things for your draft odds, especially if a couple of teams behind have good stretches.

They are pacing for 77 points, and 3rd overall will likely be around 71-73 points.

Flyers now "Just" need to go around 5-10-1 (.344) to actually have a decent shot to pick 3rd overall.

And they are 5-10-1 in their last 16 games coincidentally.

If they did that then all of Penguins, Kraken, Predators and Sabres would likely pass them.

Annnnnd then they would probably lose the lottery and pick 4th ahaha.

We still have to play the Sabres twice and the Preds once too. I’m not giving up on the Hagens dream.

 

[Appleyard]

We still have to play the Sabres twice and the Preds once too. I’m not giving up on the Hagens dream.

Tbh while that would be a dream...

so long as they walk away from this draft with one of Hagens, Misa, Schafer, Frondell, Eklund or Martone?

I will be very happy. That would have been a pipe dream even a month ago. I think barring something awful all 6 will be good players at worst (60 point forwards or #3 Dman)... and all have the chance to be genuine star players (some more than others ofc).

Dont get me wrong I like guys like Bear, Potter, Smith, Ryabkin and Desnoyers etc too in different ways... but they just have less chance to be true impact players and more likely end up 2nd liners and 2nd pairing.

 

[Appleyard]

Would be fun. But you know that they are taking a Dman whatever with one of #22 or #25.

 

[pooch]

Would be fun. But you know that they are taking a Dman whatever with one of #22 or #25.

What are your thoughts on O'Brien and Martin? Where do you see them going? Are either a fit for the Flyers? I'm assuming they would have to move up from their second 1st rd pick to land one of them.

 

[Appleyard]

What are your thoughts on O'Brien and Martin? Where do you see them going? Are either a fit for the Flyers? I'm assuming they would have to move up from their second 1st rd pick to land one of them.

O'Brien and Martin will be long gone from what I have heard. I guess both go around #14-18 or so.

Both interesting players but with this first round dont think I would move up for either. I think both most likely top out as 2nd line guys in NHL...

and given that probably 25 of the top 32 players in this draft are forwards and people will reach on Dmen? I think that with the Avs and Oilers picks some very good forwards will fall... and a lot of guys are in similar upside ranges so kind of comes down to preference.

I would consider moving up if say Ryabkin or Potter are still there at 18-20... but otherwise? Let the chips fall.

Ending up with a Kindel, Reschny or Ihs-Wozniak vs O'Brien or Martin I am not sure is worth the capital to move up.

Tbh I feel like at say 22 and 25 depending how things fall I would be ready to move down...

 

[BigToe]

Tbh while that would be a dream...

so long as they walk away from this draft with one of Hagens, Misa, Schafer, Frondell, Eklund or Martone?

I will be very happy. That would have been a pipe dream even a month ago. I think barring something awful all 6 will be good players at worst (60 point forwards or #3 Dman)... and all have the chance to be genuine star players (some more than others ofc).

Dont get me wrong I like guys like Bear, Potter, Smith, Ryabkin and Desnoyers etc too in different ways... but they just have less chance to be true impact players and more likely end up 2nd liners and 2nd pairing.

Sadly can’t see them taking a winger with the top pick so I’m really hoping for the 3rd pick. I think it’s 50/50 they go McQueen or Frondell at 4 and I don’t want them to get the chance to mess it up again.

Would be fun. But you know that they are taking a Dman whatever with one of #22 or #25.

Was just thinking about this too. The Hagens/Ryabkin combo has a chance to really flip the future around. I think Hagens/Ryabkin/Kindel would be even better but like you said one of the late picks will most likely be a Dman. It’ll be the Bonk pick all over again.

 

[Appleyard]

Sadly can’t see them taking a winger with the top pick so I’m really hoping for the 3rd pick. I think it’s 50/50 they go McQueen or Frondell at 4 and I don’t want them to get the chance to mess it up again.

Was just thinking about this too. The Hagens/Ryabkin combo has a chance to really flip the future around. I think Hagens/Ryabkin/Kindel would be even better but like you said one of the late picks will most likely be a Dman. It’ll be the Bonk pick all over again.

Yeh, at 25 I just dont know who of the Dmen could be a BPA... guess if Reid fell? Hensler is not "bad"... Aitcheson, yeh, fine... Boumedienne I dont hate. But none super inspiring.

But no-one I would be really super happy for most likely. Odds are they all end up 2nd pairing if things go well.

I would probably wait until 2nd and draft Limatov tbh, decent odds he ends up being one of the top 5 Dmen from this draft anyway aha.

 

[iceman42]

#3: Reach
#22: Reach
#25: Reach

 

[iceman42]

Yeh, at 25 I just dont know who of the Dmen could be a BPA... guess if Reid fell? Hensler is not "bad"... Aitcheson, yeh, fine... Boumedienne I dont hate. But none super inspiring.

BPA doesn't seem to be their strategy, it seems to be organization need at that moment even though the players are likely 4-5 years from even contributing. I am legit concerned that were going to see a repeat of last year with "smartest person in the room" picks rather then logical.

 

[Strawberry Fields]

Simon Wang, YOU are a Philadelphia Flyer

 

[BigToe]

Yeh, at 25 I just dont know who of the Dmen could be a BPA... guess if Reid fell? Hensler is not "bad"... Aitcheson, yeh, fine... Boumedienne I dont hate. But none super inspiring.

But no-one I would be really super happy for most likely. Odds are they all end up 2nd pairing if things go well.

I would probably wait until 2nd and draft Limatov tbh, decent odds he ends up being one of the top 5 Dmen from this draft anyway aha.

They kinda told us their plan when it comes to Dmen so I don't think Reid is realistic if he's there and it wouldn't shock me if both Hensler and Aitcheson are already gone. Fiddler seems like the guy they'd also value but there's tons of options for them to light that pick on fire. Walking away with Tretheway, Kettles or Wang would be ugly.

 

[DAVIDE1333]

Simon Wang, YOU are a Philadelphia Flyer

Who wouldn't want a Flyers "Wang" jersey?

 

[Appleyard]

I have around 135 guys right now on my draft list of guys "worth drafting" IE players who have at worst maybe a 10% chance of playing in the NHL...

But I have not done my yearly CHL/USHL deep dive into EV scoring and play-driving yet and that usually throws up maybe 10 extra names.

Interestingly around 45 of the names are overagers... of whom ~35 or so I had in my previous years lists when they were 1st time eligibles and they have simply developed as expected ahaha.

 

[iceman42]

I have around 135 guys right now on my draft list of guys "worth drafting" IE players who have at worst maybe a 10% chance of playing in the NHL...

But I have not done my yearly CHL/USHL deep dive into EV scoring and play-driving yet and that usually throws up maybe 10 extra names.

Interestingly around 45 of the names are overagers... of whom ~35 or so I had in my previous years lists when they were 1st time eligibles and they have simply developed as expected ahaha.

So these are the guys we can expect to not be taken by the Flyers? lol

 

[Larry44]

#3: Reach
#22: Reach
#25: Reach

It will be #10 (let's face it they will go on a 4 game winning streak). It is also likely that Edm or Col ends up in the SCF and/or WCF, so those picks are going to be #31/32, and then #27-30. There is NO WAY we are drafting the current 23 and 25....

And the 4 2nd rounders aren't much better. Calgary, Columbus and Anaheim are all better than anticipated. Instead of picks in the mid-30s. We're going to get something like #39, #40, #50 and #51.

So much for rebuilding in one draft...

 

[freakydallas13]

Who wouldn't want a Flyers "Wang" jersey?

 

[Tarpongg]

I have around 135 guys right now on my draft list of guys "worth drafting" IE players who have at worst maybe a 10% chance of playing in the NHL...

But I have not done my yearly CHL/USHL deep dive into EV scoring and play-driving yet and that usually throws up maybe 10 extra names.

Interestingly around 45 of the names are overagers... of whom ~35 or so I had in my previous years lists when they were 1st time eligibles and they have simply developed as expected ahaha.

I wonder if the league will wake up to the Carolina draft hack of drafting Russians in late rounds, who would’ve been 2/3 rd picks had they played in N.A.?

 

[Strawberry Fields]

#3: Reach
#22: Reach
#25: Reach

Not reaches, "high floor" guys drafted around where they were ranked but who don't become NHLers because they add precisely nothing of value

 

[BernieParent]

So these are the guys we can expect to not be taken by the Flyers? lol

Tomato, tomahto

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Decided to start looking at the draft today and after looking at some rankings I decided to click on a random mock draft.

 

[iceman42]

Decided to start looking at the draft today and after looking at some rankings I decided to click on a random mock draft.

View attachment 992155

Bingo ^^ this guy gets it. Scott Laughton floor/Scott Laughton ceiling -- just like Jett.

 

[Sombastate]

I would be very, very happy if the Flyers somehow landed Frondell. I would also absolutely love Eklund/Martone if we have to go winger. But assuming we don't pick top 3 and the draft breaks how people anticipate: Schaefer, Misa, Hagens, Martone - getting Frondell would be amazing.

I know he has every imaginable red flag, but would love Ryabkin with the second pick and Gastrin with the third

 

[PDX Flyer]

Decided to start looking at the draft today and after looking at some rankings I decided to click on a random mock draft.

View attachment 992155

So with the #7 overall the Flyers are replacing a career bottom six player……sounds about right