Official 2024-25 Utah HC Season Discussion.

[cobra427]

I forgot who I wanted but it wasn't AT, or Keenan. The way it sounds BA is tickled pink with AT. Mind you, BA is tickled pink driving in the snow on his way to the rink. You could be right about being mediocre as a whole. Today, Utah has the eighth worst record, that not even mediocre.

We were the 22nd best team the year before BA took over 5 years ago, we are 25th best this year (so far). What would we all think 5 years ago if we said, hey, in 5 years, in the GMs fifth year and the coaches 4th year, our record would be worse? Par for the course? Normal? it takes 8 years to be better?

 

[Arizonatah Coyetis]

We were the 22nd best team the year before BA took over 5 years ago, we are 25th best this year (so far). What would we all think 5 years ago if we said, hey, in 5 years, in the GMs fifth year and the coaches 4th year, our record would be worse?

When I look at the records for other teams that are rebuilding, like CHI, SJ, ANA; I see that AZ/UHC has, for the most part, performed better. UHC is even ahead of them in points this season as well.

Note that all of these teams have had a season(s) where they regressed too.

2024-25 (Current): CHI - 33, ANA - 42, SJS - 34, UHC - 45
2023-24: CHI - 52, ANA - 59, SJS - 47, ARI - 77
2022-23: CHI - 59, ANA - 58, SJS - 60, ARI - 70
2021-22: CHI - 68, ANA - 76, SJS - 77, ARI - 57
*2020-21: CHI - 55, ANA - 43, SJS - 49, ARI - 54 (*56 game season, COVID)

it takes 8 years to be better?

I know you think that BA is blowing smoke up our asses when he says 8+ years, but I don't hear any NHL professionals or journalists challenging it.

If anything, I think that the statistics/comparisons show that 5 years is not enough time to do it (without the moon and stars aligning just right) and that a rebuild isn't going to have a constant upward trajectory - there are ups and downs along the way.

One season of regression doesn't equal failure, It's just a step along the way and a normal part of the process. Growing pains.

 

[cobra427]

When I look at the records for other teams that are rebuilding, like CHI, SJ, ANA; I see that AZ/UHC has, for the most part, performed better. UHC is even ahead of them in points this season as well.

Note that all of these teams have had a season(s) where they regressed too.

2024-25 (Current): CHI - 33, ANA - 42, SJS - 34, UHC - 45
2023-24: CHI - 52, ANA - 59, SJS - 47, ARI - 77
2022-23: CHI - 59, ANA - 58, SJS - 60, ARI - 70
2021-22: CHI - 68, ANA - 76, SJS - 77, ARI - 57
*2020-21: CHI - 55, ANA - 43, SJS - 49, ARI - 54 (*56 game season, COVID)




I know you think that BA is blowing smoke up our asses when he says 8+ years, but I don't hear any NHL professionals or journalists challenging it.

If anything, I think that the statistics/comparisons show that 5 years is not enough time to do it (without the moon and stars aligning just right) and that a rebuild isn't going to have a constant upward trajectory - there are ups and downs along the way.

One season of regression doesn't equal failure, It's just a step along the way and a normal part of the process. Growing pains.

BA has a good head start, and none of those teams are happy with their rebuild so far.

GM Hire dates:

Coyotes September 2020
Hawks March 2021
Ducks February 2022
Sharks July 2022

In the 5th year for all those GMs, they will be looking for jobs if they are an 80 point team.

 

[TheLegend]

 

[Arizonatah Coyetis]

BA has a good head start, and none of those teams are happy with their rebuild so far.

GM Hire dates:

Coyotes September 2020
Hawks March 2021
Ducks February 2022
Sharks July 2022

In the 5th year for all those GMs, they will be looking for jobs if they are an 80 point team.

GM changes or not, past history and the statistics show that a quick rebuild requires drafting a Fleury, Malkin, Crosby, and Staal in succession. (a bunch of NHL ready players that have an immediate impact in the NHL. Not much development required.) They managed to only have 4 bad seasons before a huge jump in the standings. So it seems 4 years is the absolute best-case-scenario that I can think of and it's an anomaly.

We're only a little bit farther along than that (in years rebuilding) with a lot less luck in the draft. 5 years is too soon to say it's not working out or not happening fast enough.

Maybe the other teams are unhappy with their rebuilds. I haven't heard comments about their rebuilds like this one here:

"I don’t think there is a team in the NHL that is better well-positioned for the future than Utah – draft picks, prospects, cap space, and they have star players already in their fold. That’s a pretty dangerous combination." (Seravalli)

BA did that. He has put us in a great spot and and it's still growing into something bigger. But & Sim aren't even here yet for cryin' out loud! It's like judging a puzzle before all the pieces are in place.

 

[rt]

That's @Mosby, right!? I hadn't even noticed until you pointed it out.

Yep. He’s the Utah guy for DFO!!!

 

[Arizonatah Coyetis]

Yep. He’s the Utah guy for DFO!!!

Not sure if a recent "development" or if I just missed it. Either way, congrats to @Mosby!

 

[cobra427]

GM changes or not, past history and the statistics show that a quick rebuild requires drafting a Fleury, Malkin, Crosby, and Staal in succession. (a bunch of NHL ready players that have an immediate impact in the NHL. Not much development required.) They managed to only have 4 bad seasons before a huge jump in the standings. So it seems 4 years is the absolute best-case-scenario that I can think of and it's an anomaly.

We're only a little bit farther along than that (in years rebuilding) with a lot less luck in the draft. 5 years is too soon to say it's not working out or not happening fast enough.

Maybe the other teams are unhappy with their rebuilds. I haven't heard comments about their rebuilds like this one here:

"I don’t think there is a team in the NHL that is better well-positioned for the future than Utah – draft picks, prospects, cap space, and they have star players already in their fold. That’s a pretty dangerous combination." (Seravalli)

BA did that. He has put us in a great spot and and it's still growing into something bigger. But & Sim aren't even here yet for cryin' out loud! It's like judging a puzzle before all the pieces are in place.

I'm not expecting a quick rebuild, I do expect some reasonable progress after a reasonable period of time. I say 5 years later the points should be higher. Keep in mind, that is a pretty low bar, RT had 74 points in 70 games roughly. We aren't even at a PPG pace yet for a year, might not make it there this year.

I hope you guys are all correct, and 5 years later having a crappy record is ok, part of the rebuild, missing the playoffs by 15 points or so again. We should be seeing more progress by now, that is my main point and I am also not sure BA/Bear are the right guys moving forward based on the time they have spent here and the results so far.

Rebuilds can look and feel warm and fuzzy at first, look at the Oilers and all the top pics. They didn't have the right mix of players/GM/Coach. Our rebuild to me would be rated "C" same with our coach, ok, not horrible, not great.

 

[Arizonatah Coyetis]

Our rebuild to me would be rated "C" same with our coach, ok, not horrible, not great.

I expect the roster to go through another really big transformation over the next two seasons. There's still a bunch of "win now" moves that need to me made to improve the roster. BA has built up a ton of assets to do just that.

Sure, this season isn't turning out like we hoped, but the roster is still full of players that aren't part of the long-term plans. 9 expiring contracts at season's end and most of them won't be re-signed. That's why it's easy for me to blow off this season as not important to the big picture.

It's time for BA to start using bigger assets on better players that are worth holding on to for more than just one season. No more cheap placeholders while we wait for the kids to develop and earn a roster spot. It's no longer necessary.

My expectations get a lot higher starting with next season, but that's been my vison all along and has nothing to do with how this season is turning out. I've been reserving judgement until I can see what BA does after But and Sim get here because that's when I expect him to start doing some serious wheelin' and dealin'.

Still waiting to see, hoping, expecting that's what he does next.