Prospect Info: Official 2014 NHL Draft Discussion, Suck for Sam or Play Bad For Ekblad?

[AlternateSideParking]

There is no such thing as a weak draft, just weak scouting. Every draft may not produce a generational, but it will always produce top line talent.

I believe those not named Reinhart and Ekblad don't have the brand power as top picks in the past, but will severely outproduce expectations. The top two knowns on the other hand, may have a bit more than they can handle - Ekblad moreso than Reinhart.

What makes a draft good is its depth. A deep draft means your likelihood of finding top-4 or top-6 talent doesn't decrease until later rounds. A weak draft means a there are tons of guys who could be drafted anywhere from 2nd to 5th and most won't ever sniff the nhl. We saw that in 1996, 1999 and 2005.

1990 was considered a great draft before draft day. Nolan, Jagr, Nedved, Primeau and Ricci went 1-5. Brodeur went 20th. Tkachuk one pick before him.

The Rangers that year drafted Zubov, Weight and Nemchinov. Two borderline hall of famers and neither a 1st rounder.

 

[BBKers]

Pastrnak is the real deal

 

[Joey Bones]

Pastrnak is the real deal

Agreed
http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=130383

 

[I Eat Crow]

All I know is that I'm going to put my head through a wall if the Rangers are picking 8-12th overall and they go with a defenseman not named McKeown.

Pastrnak seems very intriguing. I'm always on board with picking up a fast riser over a faller on draft day. In recent memory, the only Rangers 1st rounder that went before he was supposed to was McIlrath. Del Zotto, Kreider, Miller, and Skjei were ranked right around where they were picked.

I'm very wary on Nylander's kid. Top 3 pick in September, already out of the top 10 in December. It wouldn't shock me to see him completely out of the 1st round by June. The Rangers should look at taking the risers like Pastrnak, Ehlers, and McCann.

 

[Anthony Mauro]

What makes a draft good is its depth. A deep draft means your likelihood of finding top-4 or top-6 talent doesn't decrease until later rounds. A weak draft means a there are tons of guys who could be drafted anywhere from 2nd to 5th and most won't ever sniff the nhl. We saw that in 1996, 1999 and 2005.

1990 was considered a great draft before draft day. Nolan, Jagr, Nedved, Primeau and Ricci went 1-5. Brodeur went 20th. Tkachuk one pick before him.

The Rangers that year drafted Zubov, Weight and Nemchinov. Two borderline hall of famers and neither a 1st rounder.

I am creating draft reports to see how true this actually is. So far, I have done 2005 and glanced at 2006-2009. The data seems very consistent - disproving what you're saying. We'll see..

 

[Anthony Mauro]

2005 NHL Entry Draft Analysis

2005 Snapshot

(1) 41/230 players became impact players. 23/41 were selected in the first 55 picks. Over 50 percent chance of selecting an impact player in the top two rounds.
(2) Select a goalie in the 2nd or 3rd round.
(3) Do not take an OHL defenseman in the first round.
(4) Only 5.8% of the picks from 109 to 230 made it. 5/7 were forwards. If you're going late, go forward.
(5) 81% of impact players were drafted from North American leagues.

2005 PDF of Findings

2006 Snapshot

(1) 39/213 players became impact players. 29/39 were selected in the first 63 picks. Over 70 percent chance of selecting an impact player in the top two rounds.
(2) Select a goalie in the 2nd - 4th round [Again].
(3) Do not take a defenseman in the first round - 8 busts.
(4) Only 5.3% of the picks from 80 to 213 made it. 5/7 were forwards [Again]. If you're going late, go forward.
(5) 74.4% of impact players were drafted from North American leagues.

2006 PDF of Findings

 

[NYR Viper]

Quick takeaway:

(1) 41/230 players became impact players. 23/41 were selected in the first 55 picks.
(2) Select a goalie in the 2nd or 3rd round.
(3) Do not take an OHL defenseman in the first round.
(4) Only 5.8% of the picks from 109 to 230 made it. 5/7 were forwards. If you're going late, go forward.
(5) 81% of impact players were drafted from North American leagues.

Very good info, thanks for sharing!

 

[Kokoschka]

Quick takeaway:

(1) 41/230 players became impact players. 23/41 were selected in the first 55 picks.
(2) Select a goalie in the 2nd or 3rd round.
(3) Do not take an OHL defenseman in the first round.
(4) Only 5.8% of the picks from 109 to 230 made it. 5/7 were forwards. If you're going late, go forward.
(5) 81% of impact players were drafted from North American leagues.

PDF of Findings

Nice work!
Could you explain to me your definition of an "impact" player. NHL regular?

 

[McRanger]

I posted this in another thread but it seems relevent to the current discussion.

Stats are about a week or so old.



If you want a "home run" 1st line forward you need to draft him in the 1st round, preferably in the top 5 or top 10. The Jamie Benn's are the exception not the rule.

Out of the entire 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 drafts, there are 41 players that have scored 40 career points.

13 were chosen in the top 5.

22 were in the top 10.

25 were in the 1st round.

Remaining players 16 players:

Derek Stepan C 243 61 99 160
Ryan O'Reilly C 293 54 90 144
Adam Henrique C 148 33 45 78
Craig Smith C 145 24 39 63
Zack Smith C 231 28 33 61
Andrew Shaw C 115 30 26 56
Marcus Kruger C 157 17 35 52
Brandon Saad L 80 19 29 48
Cody Eakin C 106 18 30 48
Gabriel Bourque L 104 22 24 46
Matt Martin L 232 18 27 45
Matt Calvert L 108 22 22 44
Brendan Gallagher 74 24 20 44
Cam Atkinson R 92 23 21 44
Kyle Clifford L 227 21 21 42
Tommy Wingels C 110 17 24 41

How many of those players will put up 60 points once, let alone consistently in their career? How many will have a PPG season?

There have been 65 players from the '05, '06, and '07 drafts to score 60 points.

10 of them were top 5 picks.

19 were top 10 picks.

37 were 1st rounders.

Out of the remaining 28 the only players to average more than .5 PPG are Paul Stastny, Jamie Benn, James Neal, Milan Lucic, Brad Marchand, Patric Hornqvist and Carl Hagelin.

If the Rangers want a no-argument 1st liner they need to start drafting forwards in the 1st round. They probably need to trade up. High. Or they need to trade for one.

 

[Anthony Mauro]

Nice work!
Could you explain to me your definition of an "impact" player. NHL regular?

Sure. Has to have played in the current 2013-2014 season and a minimum number of games showing he is an established player currently in the NHL.

 

[GAGLine]

Sure. Has to have played in the current 2013-2014 season and a minimum number of games showing he is an established player currently in the NHL.

Is that accounting for injuries? And on the % of NA players, can you weight that against the % of NA players taken? If 81% of impact players are from NA and 90% of drafted players are from NA, then the data actually skews toward non-NA players.

 

[Galvatron]

Another player to consider. Has been listed as both a C and a RW. Currently ranked in the middle of the 1st by the Int'l Scouting Service. Could be a find if the Rangers pick up a second pick in the middle of the 1st.

Alex Tuch (from the same hometown as Boo Nieves), going to Boston College next year

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=178526

Alex is a highly skilled centre that has the potential to be a very dominant player at the OHL level. He has great size, skill and skating ability. Alex is a offensive threat every time he is on the ice and is very dangerous with the puck on his stick. He has a very good and accurate shot which he uses from all over the ice. He plays the point on the powerplay and does a very good job of distributing the puck and usually gets the puck through when shooting from the point. Alex has a long and powerful stride that allows him to get to top speed in just a few strides.

http://www.ontariohockeyleague.com/article/five-forwards-to-watch-for-in-the-2012-ohl-priority-selection

Alex Tuch (U.S. National Team Development Program): Wow! The humongous power winger has vastly improved both his skating and puck skills. He is now a major load who goes just about anywhere he damn well pleases on the ice.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nhl/columnist/woodlief/2013/10/22/nhl-draft-preview-october-red-line-report/3154193/

 

[Trxjw]

Tuch would be a good gamble pick if we had a 2nd selection in the first round.

 

[Anthony Mauro]

Is that accounting for injuries? And on the % of NA players, can you weight that against the % of NA players taken? If 81% of impact players are from NA and 90% of drafted players are from NA, then the data actually skews toward non-NA players.

There are a few outliers IE a few guys who made the NHL late, have played regularly this season, but fall short as far as GP totals go.

The only two outstanding players I have noticed so far are Bourdon (death) and Sauer.

That is a very good thought that I will factor in. Cheers!

 

[Anthony Mauro]

Another player to consider. Has been listed as both a C and a RW. Currently ranked in the middle of the 1st by the Int'l Scouting Service. Could be a find if the Rangers pick up a second pick in the middle of the 1st.

Alex Tuch (from the same hometown as Boo Nieves), going to Boston College next year]

He's currently playing shotgun winger with Eichel ('15 stud) and Milano ('14 1st rounder). In my viewings, Tuch comes off as very smooth but average in all facets. I am very wary of him benefitting from linemates as all it takes is just holding onto your stick as playing with those two could net you 3 pts with no effort or skill at the end of the night.

If he's hot and cold, I'd love to see what the hot looks like. So far, haven't seen any ability to create or lead on his own.

 

[Galvatron]

He's currently playing shotgun winger with Eichel ('15 stud) and Milano ('14 1st rounder). In my viewings, Tuch comes off as very smooth but average in all facets. I am very wary of him benefitting from linemates as all it takes is just holding onto your stick as playing with those two could net you 3 pts with no effort or skill at the end of the night.

If he's hot and cold, I'd love to see what the hot looks like. So far, haven't seen any ability to create or lead on his own.

Good point re: Tuch's linemates. I have focused my reading on the best power forward prospects for '14. Nick Ritchie sounds like he fits the profile (size, skill, skating), but there have also been questions from scouts regarding his injury history and the consistency of his effort. From the modest amount of reading on Tuch, it appeared that he also fit the profile, but without the other questions. I appreciate your input on that.

What do you think about Jack Glover? His skillset reminds me of Brady Skjei.

 

[Anthony Mauro]

Good point re: Tuch's linemates. I have focused my reading on the best power forward prospects for '14. Nick Ritchie sounds like he fits the profile (size, skill, skating), but there have also been questions from scouts regarding his injury history and the consistency of his effort. From the modest amount of reading on Tuch, it appeared that he also fit the profile, but without the other questions. I appreciate your input on that.

What do you think about Jack Glover? His skillset reminds me of Brady Skjei.

Ritchie's a big load with a little bit of psycho in him. Quite honestly don't know how he has a letter at such a young age and his wild streak (well, team is pretty bad). He's fast, has a sick shot, and the part that makes me forgive his inconsistencies is he does a great job of playing the puck with a swarm of defenders around him. I like his hockey sense when he's attacking and being conscientious. He can lose his temper a bit and seek stupid plays that you don't want to see in a high pick. If he plays well consistently in the 2nd half or tourney play, he could warrant top 5.

I think Glover is overrated and he's not the only NTDP'er..I really like Dylan Larkin. So smooth, a powerful skater, can play physical or skill game or both, and actually has had to work for his points with underwhelming mates. Very smart player.

Anders Bjork stood out to me as a two way forward who can keep up offensively. If he can start to produce a bit more, he has some good long term potential.

 

[Kokoschka]

Sure. Has to have played in the current 2013-2014 season and a minimum number of games showing he is an established player currently in the NHL.

Thanks. My input here would be to - if possible - split the players up in (at least) 2 categories. Impact level A and level B if you will. Sounds like a lot of work and a lot of criteria to pay attention to though. Also - if I may be a pain in the ass - how did you come up with 180 games played?

Best of luck with your site, it's a good read.

 

[Galvatron]

Ritchie's a big load with a little bit of psycho in him. Quite honestly don't know how he has a letter at such a young age and his wild streak (well, team is pretty bad). He's fast, has a sick shot, and the part that makes me forgive his inconsistencies is he does a great job of playing the puck with a swarm of defenders around him. I like his hockey sense when he's attacking and being conscientious. He can lose his temper a bit and seek stupid plays that you don't want to see in a high pick. If he plays well consistently in the 2nd half or tourney play, he could warrant top 5.

I think Glover is overrated and he's not the only NTDP'er..I really like Dylan Larkin. So smooth, a powerful skater, can play physical or skill game or both, and actually has had to work for his points with underwhelming mates. Very smart player.

Anders Bjork stood out to me as a two way forward who can keep up offensively. If he can start to produce a bit more, he has some good long term potential.

I've read a little about Larkin and I also like him. I guess given the choice between a larger forward, like Ritchie or Tuch, and a decent-sized forward, like Larkin, I would have opted for the larger. Not that Larkin is small, but the other two are big boys. The Rangers need to add some forwards with the combination of size and skill to their prospect pool. Easier said than done.

However, the other factors that come into play with Larkin (lifting the play of his line, his compete level) are good signs. I also like that he is going to Michigan. He will be in good hands there. I'm sure that Larkin is on the Rangers' radar (hopefully, LOL). It will ultimately depend on where the Rangers are picking.

 

[theFiGS]

If he's there I'd like Brendan Perlini. 6'3 left wing good with the puck and high iQ.

 

[Joey Bones]

If he's there I'd like Brendan Perlini. 6'3 left wing good with the puck and high iQ.

Agreed, but I'd rather pick Draisaitl if he's still available before Perlini.

 

[AlternateSideParking]

I am creating draft reports to see how true this actually is. So far, I have done 2005 and glanced at 2006-2009. The data seems very consistent - disproving what you're saying. We'll see..

I dont know how you've come up with the idea that any mouthbreather playing NHL games makes him an "impact player"

By your definition, Gilbert Brule is an impact player. If he's an impact player, what does that make Pouliot? A franchise player?

Playing in the NHL is not that hard to do in a cap world with 30 teams.

 

[Doctyl]

we arent winning **** this season. hopefully we can get a top 5 pick. damn it why couldnt we have tanked next year....i would do bad things to get mcdavid on the rangers

 

[Anthony Mauro]

I dont know how you've come up with the idea that any mouthbreather playing NHL games makes him an "impact player"

By your definition, Gilbert Brule is an impact player. If he's an impact player, what does that make Pouliot? A franchise player?

Playing in the NHL is not that hard to do in a cap world with 30 teams.

Look more closely. I stated played in the NHL in 2013-2014. He's not an 'impact player'.

Call it whatever you want. I struggled with that classification. NHL regular? That still wouldn't show the picture I wanted to display as a player who just turned regular this year does not have longevity over time.

My report hasn't delved into production yet...but as it related to the draft...ask anyone about finding a player to play close to 300 NHL games with .32 ppg and that's a decent return on draft pick. Now, if you're talking about pick value vs draft slot that's not what I've reviewed.

 

[Anthony Mauro]

Agreed, but I'd rather pick Draisaitl if he's still available before Perlini.

Definitely. Perlini's shown alarming signs of not being able to impose his skill against good defenders. If the game tightens up or goes to an area of ice that requires some grit, he's invisible.